Analysis on the spatial pattern and evolution of China's petroleum trade under the dual effect of international oil price and “Belt and Road” Framework

“Belt and Road” is the important origin of oil import in China. Based on social network analysis and stochastic frontier gravity model, this paper studied the characteristic evolution and influence factor of oil import network between China and “Belt and Road” countries. Then by constructing a stochastic frontier gravity model including the crude oil future price and oil importing price, it found that the international crude oil future price, the oil importing price, the political situation, the trade agreements have the effects on the China's oil import from “Belt and Road” region. It provided suggestions for improving the spatial pattern of China's petroleum trade.

Dynamic interacting relationships among international oil prices, macroeconomic variables and precious metal prices

From the perspective of long-term and short-term, the methods of TY causality test, generalized impulse response function, variance decomposition were used to investigate the impacts of international oil prices and macroeconomic variables on Chinese gold, silver and platinum prices, but also the feedback effects of Chinese precious metal prices under this impact. The results show that international oil prices play an important role in precious metal price variation both in long-term and short-term, and exchange rate only has an effect in short-term, while interest rate is ineffective in predicting precious metal prices. In addition, precious metal prices have some feedback effects on international oil prices and interest rate in short-term.

The relationship between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices based on a structural VAR model

With the frequent fluctuations of international crude oil prices and China＇s increasing dependence on foreign oil in recent years, the volatility of international oil prices has significantly influenced China domestic refined oil price. This paper aims to investigate the transmission and feedback mechanism between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices for the time span from January 2011 to November 2015 by using the Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods. It is demonstrated that variation of international crude oil prices can cause China domestic refined oil price to change with a weak feedback effect. Moreover, international crude oil prices and China domestic refined oil prices are affected by their lag terms in positive and negative directions in different degrees. Besides, an international crude oil price shock has a signif- icant positive impact on domestic refined oil prices while the impulse response of the international crude oil price variable to the domestic refined oil price shock is negatively insignificant. Furthermore, international crude oil prices and domestic refined oil prices have strong historical inheri- tance. According to the variance decomposition analysis, the international crude oil price is significantly affected by its own disturbance influence, and a domestic refined oil price shock has a slight impact on international crude oil price changes. The domestic refined oil price variance is mainly caused by international crude oil price disturbance, while the domestic refined oil price is slightly affected by its own disturbance. Generally, domestic refined oil prices do not immediately respond to an international crude oil price change, that is, there is a time lag.

Bargaining strategy of oil companies in international oil and gas development Projects-Based on a bilateral bargaining model

Bargaining between the host country and oil companies is very common to international oil and gas development projects.The existence of information asymmetry gives the host country an endogenous bargaining advantage.Foreign oil companies might change their unfavorable negotiating position by changing the order of bidding and adjusting bidding strategies.This paper introduces both factors into a bilateral bargaining model to study the impact of information asymmetry and bidding order on the strategy and equilibrium returns of oil companies.According to the ownership of the right to bid first,two scenarios are designed for the model to compare the equilibrium returns of the host country and oil companies.The results show that:1)There is a first-mover advantage in the process of bilateral bidding,so oil companies better bid first;2)The information asymmetry will lead to a higher nominal income ratio of oil companies and a lower nominal income ratio of the host country,but it doesn’t affect the total income ratio at all.

Analysis of the world deepwater oil and gas exploration situation

The global trends in deepwater oil and gas exploration,characteristics of deepwater oil and gas discovery,and layout of deepwater oil and gas exploration business by seven major international oil companies are systematically analyzed using commercial databases(e.g.S&P Global and Rystad)and public information of oil companies.The deepwater area is currently the most important domain for global oil and gas exploration and discovery,with the most discoveries and reserves in passive continental margin basins.The deepwater discoveries have the greatest contribution to the total newly discovered oil and gas reserves in the sea areas,with an increasing number of lithological reservoirs discovered,and oil and gas discoveries mainly distributed in the Mesozoic–Cenozoic.The seven major international oil companies are widely active in various aspects of deepwater oil and gas exploration and development,and play a leading role.Based on years of theoretical understanding of global oil and gas geology and resource evaluation,it is proposed that favorable deepwater exploration areas in the future will mainly focus on three major areas:the Atlantic coast,the Indian Ocean periphery,and the Arctic Ocean periphery.Six suggestions are put forward for expanding overseas deepwater oil and gas exploration business:first,expand the sources for obtaining multi-user seismic data and improve the scientific selection of deepwater exploration areas;second,increase efforts to obtain deepwater exploration projects in key areas;third,adopt various methods to access into/exit from resource licenses flexibly;fourth,acquire licenses with large equity and operate in“dual-exploration”model;fifth,strengthen cooperation with leading international oil companies in deepwater technology;and sixth,improve business operation capabilities and gradually transform from“non-operators”to“operators”.

Economics,fundamentals,technology,finance,speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices:an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 2017

It is of real and direct significance for China to cope with oil price fluctuations and ensure oil security. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the specific contribution ratios of the complex factors influencing international crude oil prices and to establish crude oil price models to forecast long-term international crude oil prices. Six explanatory influential variables, namely Dow Jones Indexes, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development oil stocks, US rotary rig count, US dollar index, total open interest, which is the total number of outstanding contracts that are held by market participants at the end of each day, and geopolitical instability are specified, and the samples, from January 1990 to August 2017, are divided into six sub-periods. Moreover, the co-integration relationship among variables shows that the contribution ratios of all the variables influencing Brent crude oil prices are in accordance with the corresponding qualitative analysis. Furthermore, from September 2017 to December 2022 outside of the sample, the Vector Autoregressive forecasts show that annually averaged Brent crude oil prices for 2017-2022 would be $53.0, $61.3, $74.4, $90.0, $105.5, and $120.7 per barrel, respectively. The Vector Error Correction forecasts show that annual average Brent crude oil prices for 2017-2022 would be $53.0, $56.5, $58.5, $60.7, $63.0 and $65.4 per barrel, respectively.

Influence of The Belt and Road Initiative on Oil and Gas Infrastructure

China has proposed the ＂Belt and Road Initiative （B＆R）＂ in 2013. One its core strategies is international oil/gas cooperation. This paper addresses the status quo of cooperation on oil/gas infrastructure with countries along the line of ＂B＆R＇, anticipahs the cooperatiorl prospect. On this basis, the author analyzes China＇s advantages and cooperation basis in this domain, conceives the practical way of cooperation on oil/gas infrastructure with countries along the line of ＂B＆R＇. This paper also elaborates on tlre potential risks, risk evaluation criteria and risk corr trol in oil/gas infrastructu re cooperation with countries tries along tire line of ＂B＆R＂.

Cluster Analysis in the Target Countries of China＇s International Oil Investment

China＇s oil demand has been skyrocketed. In 2004 China became the world＇s second largest oil consumer and imported 122.7 million tons of crude oil, which accounted for 41.9% of China＇s crude oil consumption. International oil investment becomes an important channel for China to obtain oil resource. The cluster analysis in the target countries of China＇s international oil investment is studied here. An investment environment model incorporating 9 factors is established firstly, the order of these factors is ranked by their importance. Then the weight of such factors is determined by Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） and these countries are classified into 3 categories using cluster analysis. The results provide an important decision-making tool for China＇s international oil investment.

Reinvestigating the Oil Price-Stock Market Nexus： Evidence from Chinese Industry Stock Returns

The present study investigates the influence of international oil prices on China＇s stock market returns across 29 different industries. The paper attempts to account for any structural breaks and nonlinearity in this relationship. The results reveal that the effect of changes in the international price of oil on stock returns differs substantially across industries. The stock returns of the coal chemical mining and oil industries are found to be positively affected by crude oil price movements. Conversely, electronics, food manufacturing, general equipment, pharmaceuticals, retail rubber and vehicle industries are found to be negatively affected by movements in the price of crude oil. The results of the estimations also suggest that the majority of Chinese industries have been significantly affected by oil prices since 2004. The influence of international oil prices on Chinese stocks also has a stronger effect in the presence of high volatility but the effect varies across industries.