Causes, paths and interim results of the Arab Spring are discussed from the perspective of comparative revolutionary analysis. One has to distinguish revolutionary situations, with a multitude of conflict forms, from ...Causes, paths and interim results of the Arab Spring are discussed from the perspective of comparative revolutionary analysis. One has to distinguish revolutionary situations, with a multitude of conflict forms, from revolutionary outcomes. Also one should consider the options for development granted by different forms of political authority. Sultanist rule here allows for only highly limited perspectives. Such a form of political authority is focused only on the ruler and his entourage. There is no developing of encompassing and persistent institutions that would allow for smooth political change and the provision of public goods characteristic of democratic order. Numerous other theoretical elements are drawn on in assessing the chances of transformation and possible scenarios. Population pressures by an extremely young and mostly unemployed or underemployed population and the lack of a regional power are two of the crucial burdens. Further, one finds persistent cultural-religious cleavages The Arab monarchies from Morocco to Saudi-Arabia have reacted with very limited political concessions and welfare payments to buy off protest sentiments. Thus far they could avoid regime failure as occurred to the more Sultanist regimes in Libya and Syria. In the second portion of this manuscript the security implications of the failed Arab spring are addressed in regional and global terms.展开更多
文摘Causes, paths and interim results of the Arab Spring are discussed from the perspective of comparative revolutionary analysis. One has to distinguish revolutionary situations, with a multitude of conflict forms, from revolutionary outcomes. Also one should consider the options for development granted by different forms of political authority. Sultanist rule here allows for only highly limited perspectives. Such a form of political authority is focused only on the ruler and his entourage. There is no developing of encompassing and persistent institutions that would allow for smooth political change and the provision of public goods characteristic of democratic order. Numerous other theoretical elements are drawn on in assessing the chances of transformation and possible scenarios. Population pressures by an extremely young and mostly unemployed or underemployed population and the lack of a regional power are two of the crucial burdens. Further, one finds persistent cultural-religious cleavages The Arab monarchies from Morocco to Saudi-Arabia have reacted with very limited political concessions and welfare payments to buy off protest sentiments. Thus far they could avoid regime failure as occurred to the more Sultanist regimes in Libya and Syria. In the second portion of this manuscript the security implications of the failed Arab spring are addressed in regional and global terms.
