An Uncertainty Analysis Method for Artillery Dynamics with Hybrid Stochastic and Interval Parameters

This paper proposes a non-intrusive uncertainty analysis method for artillery dynamics involving hybrid uncertainty using polynomial chaos expansion(PCE).The uncertainty parameters with sufficient information are regarded as stochastic variables,whereas the interval variables are used to treat the uncertainty parameters with limited stochastic knowledge.In this method,the PCE model is constructed through the Galerkin projection method,in which the sparse grid strategy is used to generate the integral points and the corresponding integral weights.Through the sampling in PCE,the original dynamic systems with hybrid stochastic and interval parameters can be transformed into deterministic dynamic systems,without changing their expressions.The yielded PCE model is utilized as a computationally efficient,surrogate model,and the supremum and infimum of the dynamic responses over all time iteration steps can be easily approximated through Monte Carlo simulation and percentile difference.A numerical example and an artillery exterior ballistic dynamics model are used to illustrate the feasibility and efficiency of this approach.The numerical results indicate that the dynamic response bounds obtained by the PCE approach almost match the results of the direct Monte Carlo simulation,but the computational efficiency of the PCE approach is much higher than direct Monte Carlo simulation.Moreover,the proposed method also exhibits fine precision even in high-dimensional uncertainty analysis problems.

Robust Stability Analysis of Smith Predictor Based Interval Fractional-Order Control Systems:A Case Study in Level Control Process

The robust stability study of the classic Smith predictor-based control system for uncertain fractional-order plants with interval time delays and interval coefficients is the emphasis of this work.Interval uncertainties are a type of parametric uncertainties that cannot be avoided when modeling real-world plants.Also,in the considered Smith predictor control structure it is supposed that the controller is a fractional-order proportional integral derivative(FOPID)controller.To the best of the authors'knowledge,no method has been developed until now to analyze the robust stability of a Smith predictor based fractional-order control system in the presence of the simultaneous uncertainties in gain,time-constants,and time delay.The three primary contributions of this study are as follows:ⅰ)a set of necessary and sufficient conditions is constructed using a graphical method to examine the robust stability of a Smith predictor-based fractionalorder control system—the proposed method explicitly determines whether or not the FOPID controller can robustly stabilize the Smith predictor-based fractional-order control system;ⅱ)an auxiliary function as a robust stability testing function is presented to reduce the computational complexity of the robust stability analysis;andⅲ)two auxiliary functions are proposed to achieve the control requirements on the disturbance rejection and the noise reduction.Finally,four numerical examples and an experimental verification are presented in this study to demonstrate the efficacy and significance of the suggested technique.

A Note on Robust Stability Analysis of Fractional Order Interval Systems by Minimum Argument Vertex and Edge Polynomials

By using power mapping(s =v^m),stability analysis of fractional order polynomials was simplified to the stability analysis of expanded degree integer order polynomials in the first Riemann sheet.However,more investigation is needed for revealing properties of power mapping and demonstration of conformity of Hurwitz stability under power mapping of fractional order characteristic polynomials.Contributions of this study have two folds: Firstly,this paper demonstrates conservation of root argument and magnitude relations under power mapping of characteristic polynomials and thus substantiates validity of Hurwitz stability under power mapping of fractional order characteristic polynomials.This also ensures implications of edge theorem for fractional order interval systems.Secondly,in control engineering point of view,numerical robust stability analysis approaches based on the consideration of minimum argument roots of edge and vertex polynomials are presented.For the computer-aided design of fractional order interval control systems,the minimum argument root principle is applied for a finite set of edge and vertex polynomials,which are sampled from parametric uncertainty box.Several illustrative examples are presented to discuss effectiveness of these approaches.

Interval finite difference method for steady-state temperature field prediction with interval parameters

A new numerical technique named interval finite difference method is proposed for the steady-state temperature field prediction with uncertainties in both physical parameters and boundary conditions. Interval variables are used to quantitatively describe the uncertain parameters with limited information. Based on different Taylor and Neumann series, two kinds of parameter perturbation methods are presented to approximately yield the ranges of the uncertain temperature field. By comparing the results with traditional Monte Carlo simulation, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method for solving steady-state heat conduction problem with uncertain-but-bounded parameters.

DISTRIBUTED MONITORING SYSTEM RELIABILITY ESTIMATION WITH CONSIDERATION OF STATISTICAL UNCERTAINTY

Taking into account the whole system structure and the component reliability estimation uncertainty, a system reliability estimation method based on probability and statistical theory for distributed monitoring systems is presented. The variance and confidence intervals of the system reliability estimation are obtained by expressing system reliability as a linear sum of products of higher order moments of component reliability estimates when the number of component or system survivals obeys binomial distribution. The eigenfunction of binomial distribution is used to determine the moments of component reliability estimates, and a symbolic matrix which can facilitate the search of explicit system reliability estimates is proposed. Furthermore, a case of application is used to illustrate the procedure, and with the help of this example, various issues such as the applicability of this estimation model, and measures to improve system reliability of monitoring systems are discussed.

Non-probabilistic information fusion technique for structural damage identification based on measured dynamic data with uncertainty

Based on measured natural frequencies and acceleration responses,a non-probabilistic information fusion technique is proposed for the structural damage detection by adopting the set-membership identification（SMI） and twostep model updating procedure.Due to the insufficiency and uncertainty of information obtained from measurements,the uncertain problem of damage identification is addressed with interval variables in this paper.Based on the first-order Taylor series expansion,the interval bounds of the elemental stiffness parameters in undamaged and damaged models are estimated,respectively.The possibility of damage existence（PoDE） in elements is proposed as the quantitative measure of structural damage probability,which is more reasonable in the condition of insufficient measurement data.In comparison with the identification method based on a single kind of information,the SMI method will improve the accuracy in damage identification,which reflects the information fusion concept based on the non-probabilistic set.A numerical example is performed to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed technique.

General noise support vector regression with non-constant uncertainty intervals for solar radiation prediction

General noise cost functions have been recently proposed for support vector regression(SVR). When applied to tasks whose underlying noise distribution is similar to the one assumed for the cost function, these models should perform better than classical -SVR. On the other hand, uncertainty estimates for SVR have received a somewhat limited attention in the literature until now and still have unaddressed problems. Keeping this in mind,three main goals are addressed here. First, we propose a framework that uses a combination of general noise SVR models with naive online R minimization algorithm(NORMA) as optimization method, and then gives nonconstant error intervals dependent upon input data aided by the use of clustering techniques. We give theoretical details required to implement this framework for Laplace, Gaussian, Beta, Weibull and Marshall–Olkin generalized exponential distributions. Second, we test the proposed framework in two real-world regression problems using data of two public competitions about solar energy. Results show the validity of our models and an improvement over classical -SVR. Finally, in accordance with the principle of reproducible research, we make sure that data and model implementations used for the experiments are easily and publicly accessible.

Efficient adaptive Kriging for system reliability analysis with multiple failure modes under random and interval hybrid uncertainty

In the field of the system reliability analysis with multiple failure modes,the advances mainly involve only random uncertainty.The upper bound of the system failure probability with multiple failure modes is usually employed to quantify the safety level under Random and Interval Hybrid Uncertainty(RI-HU).At present,there is a lack of an efficient and accurate method for estimating the upper bound of the system failure probability.This paper proposed an efficient Kriging model based on numerical simulation algorithm to solve the system reliability analysis under RI-HU.This method proposes a system learning function to train the system Kriging models of the system limit state surface.The convergent Kriging models are used to replace the limit state functions of the system multi-mode for identifying the state of the random sample.The proposed system learning function can adaptively select the failure mode contributing most to the system failure probability from the system and update its Kriging model.Thus,the efficiency of the Kriging training process can be improved by avoiding updating the Kriging models contributing less to estimating the system failure probability.The presented examples illustrate the superiority of the proposed method.

A robust multi-objective and multi-physics optimization of multi-physics behavior of microstructure

A new strategy is presented to solve robust multi-physics multi-objective optimization problem known as improved multi-objective collaborative optimization （IMOCO） and its extension improved multi-objective robust collaborative （IMORCO）. In this work, the proposed IMORCO approach combined the IMOCO method, the worst possible point （WPP） constraint cuts and the Genetic algorithm NSGA-II type as an optimizer in order to solve the robust optimization problem of multi-physics of microstructures with uncertainties. The optimization problem is hierarchically decomposed into two levels： a microstructure level, and a disciplines levels, For validation purposes, two examples were selected： a numerical example, and an engineering example of capacitive micro machined ultrasonic transducers （CMUT） type. The obtained results are compared with those obtained from robust non-distributed and distributed optimization approach, non-distributed multi-objective robust optimization （NDMORO） and multi-objective collaborative robust optimization （McRO）, respectively. Results obtained from the application of the IMOCO approach to an optimization problem of a CMUT cell have reduced the CPU time by 44% ensuring a Pareto front close to the reference non-distributed multi-objective optimization （NDMO） approach （mahalanobis distance, D2M =0.9503 and overall spread, So=0.2309）. In addition, the consideration of robustness in IMORCO approach applied to a CMUT cell of optimization problem under interval uncertainty has reduced the CPU time by 23% keeping a robust Pareto front overlaps with that obtained by the robust NDMORO approach （D2M =10.3869 and So=0.0537）.

A novel method of Newton iteration-based interval analysis for multidisciplinary systems

A Newton iteration-based interval uncertainty analysis method(NI-IUAM) is proposed to analyze the propagating effect of interval uncertainty in multidisciplinary systems. NI-IUAM decomposes one multidisciplinary system into single disciplines and utilizes a Newton iteration equation to obtain the upper and lower bounds of coupled state variables at each iterative step.NI-IUAM only needs to determine the bounds of uncertain parameters and does not require specific distribution formats. In this way, NI-IUAM may greatly reduce the necessity for raw data. In addition, NI-IUAM can accelerate the convergence process as a result of the super-linear convergence of Newton iteration. The applicability of the proposed method is discussed, in particular that solutions obtained in each discipline must be compatible in multidisciplinary systems. The validity and efficiency of NI-IUAM is demonstrated by both numerical and engineering examples.

Interval analysis of transient temperature field with uncertain-but-bounded parameters

Based on the traditional finite volume method, a new numerical technique is presented for the transient temperature field prediction with interval uncertainties in both the physical parameters and initial/boundary conditions. New stability theory applicable to interval discrete schemes is developed. Interval ranges of the uncertain temperature field can be approximately yielded by two kinds of parameter perturbation methods. Different order Neumann series are adopted to approximate the interval matrix inverse. By comparing the results with traditional Monte Carlo simulation, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model and methods.

Modelling medium-and long-term purchasing plans for environment-orientated container trucks:a case study of Yangtze River port

The transportation sector is the most significant contributor to anthropogenic greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions.Particularly,maritime transportation,which is predominantly powered by fossil-fuel engines,accounts for more than 90%of world freight movement and emits 3%of global carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions.China is the world’s largest emitter of CO_(2 )and plays a key role in mitigating global climate change.In order to tackle this pressing concern,this study analyses the port’s throughput,the current number of trucks and their emissions during the container truck purchasing process.Previous studies about container truck purchasing plans mostly focused on the trucks’price and port needs.The objective of this study is to minimize the total cost of a port’s inland transportation using optimization technique such as the interval uncertainty planning model to convert container truck emissions into social costs.The study considers the port of Yangtze as a case study.The study has designed two scenarios.(i)The base scenario(business-asusual,BAU)is used to quantify the relationship between pollutant emissions and system cost.In the base scenario,no environmental control facilities are used during the planning period,and there is no need to purchase new energy container trucks.(ii)The expected scenario(Scenario A)is for three planning periods.In Scenario A,the emissions levels are required to remain at the same level as the first planning period during the whole planning period.By solving the above model,the number of all truck types,system cost,container throughput and truck emissions in the port area were analysed.The results showed that if no emission reduction control measures are implemented in the next 9 years,the growth rate of pollutants in the port area could reach 20%.In addition,the findings showed clearly that truck emissions are reduced by purchasing new energy trucks and restricting the number of fossil-fuel(diesel)trucks.This study could also help to minimize system costs associated with port planning and management.

Frequency aware robust economic dispatch

This paper proposes a novel frequency aware robust economic dispatch (FARED) approach to exploit the synergistic capability of accommodating uncertain loads and renewable generation by accounting for both the frequency regulation effect and optimal participation mechanism of secondary regulation reserves for conventional units in response to uncertainties in the robust optimization counterpart of security constrained economic dispatch.The FARED is formulated as a robust optimization problem.In this formulation the allowable frequency deviation and the possible load or renewable generation curtailments are expressed in terms of variable uncertainty sets.The variables in the formulation are described as interval variables and treated in affine form.In order to improve the computational tractability,the dominant constraints which canbe the candidates of tight transmission constraints are determined by complementarity constraints.Then the robust optimization problem is simplified to a bilinear programming problem based on duality theory.Finally,the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method are illustrated based on several study cases.