Optimal Insurance with Background Risk under the Ambiguity and Belief Heterogeneity Structure

In this paper, we discuss the optimal insurance in the presence of background risk while the insured is ambiguity averse and there exists belief heterogeneity between the insured and the insurer. We give the optimal insurance contract when maxing the insured’s expected utility of his/her remaining wealth under the smooth ambiguity model and the heterogeneous belief form satisfying the MHR condition. We calculate the insurance premium by using generalized Wang’s premium and also introduce a series of stochastic orders proposed by [1] to describe the relationships among the insurable risk, background risk and ambiguity parameter. We obtain the deductible insurance is the optimal insurance while they meet specific dependence structures.

TOPSIS with Belief Structure for Group Belief Multiple Criteria Decision Making

The technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution （TOPSIS） is one of the major techniques in dealing with multiple criteria decision making （MCDM） problems, and the belief structure （BS） model has been used successfully for uncertain MCDM with incompleteness, impreciseness or ignorance. In this paper, the TOPSIS method with BS model is proposed to solve group belief MCDM problems. Firstly, the group belief MCDM problem is structured as a belief decision matrix in which the judgments of each decision maker are described as BS models, and then the evidential reasoning approach is used for aggregating the multiple decision makers＇ judgments. Subsequently, the positive and negative ideal belief solutions are defined with the principle of TOPSIS. To measure the separation from ideal solutions, the concept and algorithm of belief distance measure are defined, which can be used for comparing the difference between BS models. Finally, the relative closeness and ranking index are calculated for ranking the alternatives. A numerical example is given to illustrate the proposed method.

结直肠癌化疗患者的膳食结构及其影响因素分析

目的了解结直肠癌化疗患者治疗期间的膳食情况,并分析其膳食结构及相关影响因素,为医务人员制定针对性膳食食谱、膳食干预措施提供依据。方法选取2021年9月至2022年3月178例在中山大学附属第一医院行化疗的结直肠癌患者作为研究对象。对患者的食物摄入情况、营养素摄入情况、膳食知信行情况进行调查分析,使用中国膳食宝塔(Chinese food pagoda,CHFP)评分法计算患者的膳食结构评分,并采用多因素Logistic回归分析探讨膳食结构评分的影响因素。结果结直肠癌化疗患者的CHFP得分总分中位数为24.94(21.78,28.51)分,其中谷薯类、水果类、油的CHFP得分较高。结直肠癌化疗患者治疗期间每日能量及碳水化合物的实际摄入量低于推荐摄入量(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,消瘦(体重指数<18.5 kg/m^(2))是膳食结构评分高的保护因素(OR=0.263,95%CI 0.078~0.885,P=0.031),而膳食营养知识得分高(OR=1.142,95%CI 1.017~1.283,P=0.025)、膳食营养行为得分高(OR=1.121,95%CI 1.014~1.240,P=0.026)则是膳食结构评分高的危险因素。结论大多数结直肠癌化疗患者的膳食结构欠合理,主要营养素供能比不合理,膳食营养知识、膳食营养行为是其主要的影响因素。医务人员在临床中应重视膳食宣教与干预,提高结直肠癌化疗患者膳食结构的合理性。

平原圩区水系结构与功能特征及其影响机制——以昆山南部为例

明晰平原河网水系结构和功能的影响机制对区域生态可持续发展具有重要意义。以昆山市南部防洪分区为例,选取水系指标分析圩区单元尺度下的水系网络结构与调蓄功能,并构建贝叶斯网络模型,综合考虑用地、自然、工程与政策管理等因子及其相互作用,定量探究水系结构与功能的影响机制。结果表明:(1)水系网络结构具有显著空间异质性,且水系调蓄功能与结构特征密切相关,较复杂的水系形态结构往往表现出较强的调蓄功能;(2)政策、工程、用地和自然条件等因子对水系调蓄功能的影响强度依次减弱;(3)识别水系功能优化目标下的关键变量与关键状态子集,可从社会⁃生态协同视角指导圩区单元的水系治理与优化。研究结果可为平原圩区水系网络健康与可持续发展提供理论参考和决策依据。

城市居民低碳出行意向异质性分析

为揭示居民低碳出行决策过程的内在机理,识别个体异质性对低碳出行决策的影响,本文结合计划行为理论(TPB)和价值信念规范理论(VBN),引入环境意识、政策因素和出行时间感知构建了城市居民低碳出行意向模型。首先应用结构方程模型对398份有效数据进行检验分析,识别模型中的直接效应与间接效应,然后通过多群组结构方程进行异质性分析。研究结果表明,个人规范、态度、知觉行为控制和主观规范对居民的低碳出行意向均有显著直接影响;政策因素与环境意识、出行时间感知可通过中介变量来间接影响低碳出行意向;潜变量对低碳出行意向的主要影响因素按总效应值排序为:个人规范(0.405)、政策因素(0.359)、态度(0.325)、环境意识(0.294)。多群组分析结果表明,年龄和出行时间可以调节潜变量之间的作用关系:对于出行时间较短的青年人来说,态度是影响其低碳出行意向的主要因素;对于出行时间较长的中老年人,个人规范对其低碳出行意向的影响更大。研究结论可为制定差异化的城市居民低碳出行引导策略,促进城市低碳客运交通发展提供一定的理论依据。

ChatGPT知识信念、能力界限和哲学预见——基于方法结构分析和知识组织方法的思考

以大语言模型Chat GPT为例,从知识信念的角度阐述西方哲学激活颠覆式创新所发挥的力量,为“‘哲学的贫困’是我国科技发展瓶颈问题的根源”命题和反驳“哲学无用论”提供确凿的证据。由于知识信念参与创新又不属于创新,在创新者身上的“过去的力量”难以被旁观者知觉,为此做以下论述:(1)在西方哲学语境中解析那些通常难以理解的知识信念及其历史生成逻辑;(2)指出由知识信念划定好的Chat GPT能力界限;(3)根据“从信念到现实”的时差,给出基于西方哲学成就的预见;(4)提出基于哲学经验与知识组织方法的“先知”方法论。同时阐述情报研究对象应超越“实在层面”,打开“观念层面”,得出情报工作需重拾并充实情报分析中的哲学方法。

A New Safety Assessment Method Based on Belief Rule Base With Attribute Reliability

Safety assessment is one of important aspects in health management.In safety assessment for practical systems,three problems exist:lack of observation information,high system complexity and environment interference.Belief rule base with attribute reliability(BRB-r)is an expert system that provides a useful way for dealing with these three problems.In BRB-r,once the input information is unreliable,the reliability of belief rule is influenced,which further influences the accuracy of its output belief degree.On the other hand,when many system characteristics exist,the belief rule combination will explode in BRB-r,and the BRB-r based safety assessment model becomes too complicated to be applied.Thus,in this paper,to balance the complexity and accuracy of the safety assessment model,a new safety assessment model based on BRB-r with considering belief rule reliability is developed for the first time.In the developed model,a new calculation method of the belief rule reliability is proposed with considering both attribute reliability and global ignorance.Moreover,to reduce the influence of uncertainty of expert knowledge,an optimization model for the developed safety assessment model is constructed.A case study of safety assessment of liquefied natural gas(LNG)storage tank is conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the new developed model.

A hybrid approach for evaluating CPT-based seismic soil liquefaction potential using Bayesian belief networks

Discernment of seismic soil liquefaction is a complex and non-linear procedure that is affected by diversified factors of uncertainties and complexity.The Bayesian belief network(BBN)is an effective tool to present a suitable framework to handle insights into such uncertainties and cause–effect relationships.The intention of this study is to use a hybrid approach methodology for the development of BBN model based on cone penetration test(CPT)case history records to evaluate seismic soil liquefaction potential.In this hybrid approach,naive model is developed initially only by an interpretive structural modeling(ISM)technique using domain knowledge(DK).Subsequently,some useful information about the naive model are embedded as DK in the K2 algorithm to develop a BBN-K2 and DK model.The results of the BBN models are compared and validated with the available artificial neural network(ANN)and C4.5 decision tree(DT)models and found that the BBN model developed by hybrid approach showed compatible and promising results for liquefaction potential assessment.The BBN model developed by hybrid approach provides a viable tool for geotechnical engineers to assess sites conditions susceptible to seismic soil liquefaction.This study also presents sensitivity analysis of the BBN model based on hybrid approach and the most probable explanation of liquefied sites,owing to know the most likely scenario of the liquefaction phenomenon.

Damage identification of steel truss bridges based on deep belief network

To improve the accuracy and anti-noise ability of the structural damage identification method,a bridge damage identification method is proposed based on a deep belief network(DBN).The output vector is used to establish the nonlinear mapping relationship between the mode shape and structural damage.The hidden layer of the DBN is trained through a layer-by-layer pre-training.Finally,the backpropagation algorithm is used to fine-tune the entire network.The method is validated using a numerical model of a steel truss bridge.The results show that under the influence of noise and modeling uncertainty,the damage identification method based on the DBN can identify the accurate damage location and degree identification compared with the traditional damage identification method based on an artificial neural network.

Predictors of caring behaviors of mothers of premature infants based on the health belief model

Objective:To investigate predictors of caring behaviors of mothers of premature infants based on the health belief model.Methods:This cross-sectional study was conducted by using the structural equation modeling on 168 mothers of premature infants,who were selected by convenience sampling method from October 2017 to February 2018 in Iran.Data were collected by using a standard scale.Validity and reliability of all data collection tools were approved.Data were analyzed by using SPSS V.16 and Mplus6 software.Results:The structural equation modeling of the initial health belief model did not have a good fit,but the fitness of model 2 obtaining from the modified initial model was confirmed by changes in locations of constructs.None of constructs of model 2 had a significant positive association with the caring behavior of mothers of premature infants and only 2.8%of variance of caring behaviors in mothers could be predicted by the sum of variables of demographic characteristics and the modified health belief model constructs.Conclusions:Given that the findings do not approve the use of the health belief model in predicting determinants of caring behavior of mothers of premature infants,it is suggested to apply this model to investigate the effect of educational intervention based on the health belief model on the caring behavior of mothers.

The Influence of Tourists＇ Attitude and Self-efficacy Belief in Adopting Responsible Behavior in Bangladesh

This research examined tourists＇ intention to adopt responsible behavior （RB）. Toward this, two constructs of determinants （attitude and self-efficacy belief） of intention to adopt RB were identified through literature surveys. Also, three constructs of RB alternatives, namely, economically RB （ECNRB）, environmentally RB （ENVRB）, and socio-culturally RB （SCLRB）, were identified through a focus group discussion. A self-administrated questionnaire was surveyed among 351 professionals in Bangladesh. Confirmatory factor analysis of both the independent and dependent variables was done prior to employing them in the structured equation model to validate the model and test the hypotheses. The research found that in Bangladesh, the self-efficacy belief influences tourists＇ intention to choose RB more than the attitude does, but their influences on tourists＇ intention to adopt ECNRB, ENVRB, or SCLRB are varied. Moreover, tourists were found to have less intention to adopt ECNRB than ENVRB and SCLRB. For the policy makers or promoters of responsible tourism （RT）, those who want to promote any kind of RB in Bangladesh need to increase self-efficacy belief among tourists. The policy makers need to develop themes around tourists＇ positive experience, emotional and physiological states along with verbal persuasion in their communication messages （Bandura, 1997） and in any kind of interpretations at the destination whilst targeting a particular market segment.

故宫古建筑防火文化信仰研究

故宫古建筑以木结构为主,在历史上曾多次遭受火灾。古代工匠积累了丰富的防火智慧,形成了特殊的防火文化信仰。故宫古建筑的防火信仰文化,主要包括采用螭吻、游龙、海马、行什等异兽来“防”火,采用藻井、水生植物来“镇”火,书写不带钩的“门”字来避讳火灾;利用五行中“北为水”“金生水”“水克火”的古代哲学思想来“克”火等。尽管这些做法没有科学价值,但对研究我国古代消防史及消防文化而言,均有重要的参考价值,因而从文化遗存和文化信仰等方面来讲,它们是积极的,值得包容的。

三论边疆地区的中心化与边缘化——与“新清史”的对话

本文主要与“新清史”提出的“边疆是边疆,中心是中心”的观点进行对话,基于“二元社会结构”理论来分析海南作为边疆地区的冼夫人信仰文化,最后得出边疆与中心并不是孤立的,而是彼此互动和交流的,且边疆地区具有明显的向心性的观点。冼夫人自身经历以及海南冼夫人信仰文化形成和发展的过程证明了边疆和中央具有紧密的联系,处在边缘地区的海南不仅具有古代大一统社会文化的中心元素,而且具有明显的向中心性,在“二元社会结构”下,不论是官方力量还是民间力量,都在从不同方向推进着海南地区的中心化与向心性。

社区结构视角下潮汕游神赛会空间特征与形成机制研究

广东潮汕地区城乡聚落中广泛存在的游神赛会活动是一类历史悠久的民俗仪式。通过概念化的游神空间模式,文章对血缘型、业缘型、混合型三处不同社区结构背景的案例进行分析,并从“神厂”空间设置、祭祀单元排列规则、游神路线选择三个层面,判别社区结构观念对空间特征的影响机制。对比结果显示,不同社区背景下的游神空间特征存在明显差异,但又遵循共通的社区结构影响机制:不同形式的族群认同决定了“神厂”空间的设置原则,人们对内组成了兼顾平等与秩序原则的祭祀单元,对外则组织了具有圈层式空间特征的游神路线,表现了重内轻外的社区关系。

基于结构方程模型的潮汕地区食管癌放疗患者营养知信行影响因素研究

目的 探讨潮汕地区食管癌放疗患者营养知信行影响因素,为进一步制订区域化营养护理实践方案提供理论依据。方法 采用便利抽样法选取潮汕地区271名食管癌放疗患者及其271名主要家庭照顾者共计542人作为研究对象。采用问卷或量表调查患者的一般资料、营养状况、营养知信行、癌症自我管理效能感、社会支持;调查照顾者的一般资料、营养知信行、照顾负担、社会支持。应用AMOS 22.0建立潮汕地区食管癌放疗患者营养知信行影响因素结构方程模型,分析各影响因子间的作用机制。结果 潮汕地区食管癌放疗患者营养知信行处于较差水平,及格率仅为7.01%;营养不良发生率100%。构建的营养知信行影响因素结构方程模型拟合良好,结果显示,社会支持、癌症自我管理效能感、经济支持、营养状况、照顾者营养知信行、照顾者主观支持和照顾负担是潮汕地区食管癌放疗患者营养知信行的重要影响因素。结论 潮汕地区食管癌放疗患者营养知信行水平亟待提升,受多种因素影响且作用机制复杂,应动态精准评估,加强针对性干预,促进精准营养。同时患者营养不良严重,需要引起医护人员对区域化肿瘤营养规范化治疗的重视。

绩能主义与结构制约:当代青年的双重地位获得观

本研究利用一项调查实验剖析了当代青年对绩能性因素与结构性因素在个体实现社会成就过程中重要性的认知。结果表明,当代青年既相信绩能性因素对于个体地位获得的意义,也洞悉了结构性因素的约束,呈现双重地位获得观。其中,绩能主义观的强弱依地位的类型而异,相比住房获得,青年对职业晋升秉持更为强烈的绩能主义信念;青年重视关系资本的价值,并同时体现在职业晋升和住房获得两个维度上;他们的地位获得观还呈现“去单位化”特征,并不认为单位类型会限制个体成功。以上实证发现对优化新时期青年地位获得观具有一定的政策启示。

多端直流电网的非边界依赖型线路故障辨识方案

为实现在网孔结构多端直流电网中仅利用本地测量信息进行故障辨识,本文提出一种基于多频带能量分布特征和模式识别技术的故障辨识方案。首先,利用小波包将故障暂态量分解为多能量频带,然后构建深度置信网络模型来分辨不同频带能量分布之间的差异性,模型分辨出的故障数据组可对应不同的故障类型,结合具有方向识别功能的启动判据形成一套完整的非边界依赖型直流线路故障辨识方案。仿真结果表明,该方案能快速、有效地辨识区内、区外故障。

基于TPB-VBN整合模型的居民垃圾分类意愿影响因素研究——以合肥市为例

垃圾产生端是垃圾分类的核心节点,因此增强居民垃圾分类意愿具有重要意义。本文选用TPB-VBN整合模型作为基本理论框架,将垃圾分类激励政策作为重要影响因素,对居民垃圾分类意愿进行实证分析。修正后,TPB-VBN整合模型得到结构方程验证。经分析,后果意识和环保意识对责任归属有积极影响,后果意识、责任归属与激励政策对个人规范有积极影响,个人规范与知觉行为控制对居民垃圾分类意愿有积极影响。最后,结合我国社会文化背景,从政府、企业、社区三个角度提出对策,以提高城市居民的垃圾分类意愿。

考虑环境干扰的大型贮液箱结构安全评估模型

针对大型贮液箱(LLT)结构安全评估面临的先验信息缺失、监测信息不完全可靠等问题,基于置信规则库(BRB)和有限元方法(FEM),提出了一种考虑环境干扰的大型贮液箱结构安全评估模型。基于行业标准和专家知识,借助有限元方法进行评估模型初始参数的估计;基于信息一致性方法计算指标可信度,以反映实际工程中扰动因素对监测数据的影响;提出一种新的融合方法,将指标可信度合理融合到模型推理过程中,完成评估模型的构建;选用105m3石油储罐作为研究对象,对所提模型的有效性进行验证。研究结果表明:所提模型不仅能有效处理监测数据不可靠问题,也能够将大型贮液箱复杂系统内部结构机理考虑在内,有效克服先验信息不足给评估精度带来的影响。

液体火箭箭体结构的半定量安全状态评估方法

针对液体火箭箭体结构的安全性问题,提出一种利用置信规则库(belief rule base, BRB)和鲸鱼算法(whale optimization algorithm, WOA)模型来进行安全状态评估的方法。该模型基于BRB方法对液体火箭结构安全进行安全状态评估,最后基于WOA优化算法对构建的BRB模型的参数进行优化。由实验可知,所提出的模型能够有效解决液体火箭箭体结构安全性评估的问题,同时能够充分进行半定量分析,并保持较高的实验精度。