Regularized Inverse Covariance Estimation for Longitudinal Data with Informative Dropout

This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the sparse inverse covariance matrixfor longitudinal data with informative dropouts. Based on the modified Cholesky decomposition,the sparse inverse covariance matrix is modelled by the autoregressive regression model,which guarantees the positive definiteness of the covariance matrix. To account for the informativedropouts, we then propose a penalized estimating equation method using the inverse probabilityweighting approach. The informative dropout propensity parameters are estimated by the generalizedmethod of moments. The asymptotic properties are investigated for the resulting estimators.Finally, we illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method through Monte Carlosimulations and a practical application.

An Online Model Correction Method Based on an Inverse Problem:Part I—Model Error Estimation by Iteration

Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction （NWP） due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations. To eliminate these errors, by considering NWP as an inverse problem, an unknown term in the prediction equations can be estimated inversely by using the past data, which are presumed to represent the imperfection of the NWP model （model error, denoted as ME）. In this first paper of a two-part series, an iteration method for obtaining the MEs in past intervals is presented, and the results from testing its convergence in idealized experiments are reported. Moreover, two batches of iteration tests were applied in the global forecast system of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System （GRAPES-GFS） for July-August 2009 and January-February 2010. The datasets associated with the initial conditions and sea surface temperature （SST） were both based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） FNL （final） data. The results showed that 6th h forecast errors were reduced to 10% of their original value after a 20-step iteration. Then, off-line forecast error corrections were estimated linearly based on the 2-month mean MEs and compared with forecast errors. The estimated error corrections agreed well with the forecast errors, but the linear growth rate of the estimation was steeper than the forecast error. The advantage of this iteration method is that the MEs can provide the foundation for online correction. A larger proportion of the forecast errors can be expected to be canceled out by properly introducing the model error correction into GRAPES-GFS.

Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Estimation of the Inverse Weibull Model Based on Generalized Order Statistics

The concept of generalized order statistics has been introduced as a unified approach to a variety of models of ordered random variables with different interpretations. In this paper, we develop methodology for constructing inference based on n selected generalized order statistics (GOS) from inverse Weibull distribution (IWD), Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches have been used to obtain the estimators of the parameters and reliability function. We have examined Bayes estimates under various losses such as the balanced squared error (balanced SEL) and balanced LINEX loss functions are considered. We show that Bayes estimate under balanced SEL and balanced LINEX loss functions are more general, which include the symmetric and asymmetric losses as special cases. This was done under assumption of discrete-continuous mixture prior for the unknown model parameters. The parametric bootstrap method has been used to construct confidence interval for the parameters and reliability function. Progressively type-II censored and k-record values as a special case of GOS are considered. Finally a practical example using real data set was used for illustration.

A New Modified Inverse Lomax Distribution: Properties, Estimation and Applications to Engineering and Medical Data

In this paper,a modified form of the traditional inverse Lomax distribution is proposed and its characteristics are studied.The new distribution which called modified logarithmic transformed inverse Lomax distribution is generated by adding a new shape parameter based on logarithmic transformed method.It contains two shape and one scale parameters and has different shapes of probability density and hazard rate functions.The new shape parameter increases the flexibility of the statistical properties of the traditional inverse Lomax distribution including mean,variance,skewness and kurtosis.The moments,entropies,order statistics and other properties are discussed.Six methods of estimation are considered to estimate the distribution parameters.To compare the performance of the different estimators,a simulation study is performed.To show the flexibility and applicability of the proposed distribution two real data sets to engineering and medical fields are analyzed.The simulation results and real data analysis showed that the Anderson-Darling estimates have the smallest mean square errors among all other estimates.Also,the analysis of the real data sets showed that the traditional inverse Lomax distribution and some of its generalizations have shortcomings in modeling engineering and medical data.Our proposed distribution overcomes this shortage and provides a good fit which makes it a suitable choice to model such data sets.

Nonlinear robust adaptive control for bidirectional stabilization system of all-electric tank with unknown actuator backlash compensation and disturbance estimation

Since backlash nonlinearity is inevitably existing in actuators for bidirectional stabilization system of allelectric tank,it behaves more drastically in high maneuvering environments.In this work,the accurate tracking control for bidirectional stabilization system of moving all-electric tank with actuator backlash and unmodeled disturbance is solved.By utilizing the smooth adaptive backlash inverse model,a nonlinear robust adaptive feedback control scheme is presented.The unknown parameters and unmodelled disturbance are addressed separately through the derived parametric adaptive function and the continuous nonlinear robust term.Because the unknown backlash parameters are updated via adaptive function and the backlash effect can be suppressed successfully by inverse operation,which ensures the system stability.Meanwhile,the system disturbance in the high maneuverable environment can be estimated with the constructed adaptive law online improving the engineering practicality.Finally,Lyapunov-based analysis proves that the developed controller can ensure the tracking error asymptotically converges to zero even with unmodeled disturbance and unknown actuator backlash.Contrast co-simulations and experiments illustrate the advantages of the proposed approach.

Optimizing near-carbon-free nuclear energy systems:advances in reactor operation digital twin through hybrid machine learning algorithms for parameter identification and state estimation

Accurate and efficient online parameter identification and state estimation are crucial for leveraging digital twin simulations to optimize the operation of near-carbon-free nuclear energy systems.In previous studies,we developed a reactor operation digital twin(RODT).However,non-differentiabilities and discontinuities arise when employing machine learning-based surrogate forward models,challenging traditional gradient-based inverse methods and their variants.This study investigated deterministic and metaheuristic algorithms and developed hybrid algorithms to address these issues.An efficient modular RODT software framework that incorporates these methods into its post-evaluation module is presented for comprehensive comparison.The methods were rigorously assessed based on convergence profiles,stability with respect to noise,and computational performance.The numerical results show that the hybrid KNNLHS algorithm excels in real-time online applications,balancing accuracy and efficiency with a prediction error rate of only 1%and processing times of less than 0.1 s.Contrastingly,algorithms such as FSA,DE,and ADE,although slightly slower(approximately 1 s),demonstrated higher accuracy with a 0.3%relative L_2 error,which advances RODT methodologies to harness machine learning and system modeling for improved reactor monitoring,systematic diagnosis of off-normal events,and lifetime management strategies.The developed modular software and novel optimization methods presented offer pathways to realize the full potential of RODT for transforming energy engineering practices.

DOA Estimation Algorithm Based on Adaptive Filtering in Spatial Domain

In this paper, a novel DOA estimation methodology based upon the technology of adaptive nulling antenna is proposed. Initially, the nulling antenna obtains the weight vector by LMS algorithm and power inversion criterion.Afterwards, reciprocal of the antenna pattern is defined as the spatial spectrum and the extracted peak values are corresponded to the estimated DOA. Through observation of the spectrum and data analysis of variable steps and SNRs, the simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method can estimate DOA above board. Furthermore, the estimation error of the proposed technique is directly proportional to step size and is inversely proportional to SNR. Unlike the existing MUSIC algorithm, the proposed algorithm has less computational complexity as it eliminates the need of estimating the number of signals and the eigenvalue decomposition of covariance matrix. Also it outperforms MUSIC algorithm, the recently proposed MUSIC-Like algorithm and classical methods by achieving better resolution with narrow width of peaks.

Distributed inverse synthetic aperture radar imaging of ship target with complex motion

For ship targets with complex motion,it is difficult for the traditional monostatic inverse synthetic aperture radar(ISAR)imaging to improve the cross-range resolution by increasing of accumulation time.In this paper,a distributed ISAR imaging algorithm is proposed to improve the cross-range resolution for the ship target.Multiple stations are used to observe the target in a short time,thereby the effect of incoherence caused by the complex motion of the ship can be reduced.The signal model of ship target with three-dimensional(3-D)rotation is constructed firstly.Then detailed analysis about the improvement of crossrange resolution is presented.Afterward,we propose the methods of parameters estimation to solve the problem of the overlap or gap,which will cause a loss of resolution and is necessary for subsequent processing.Besides,the compressed sensing(CS)method is applied to reconstruct the echoes with gaps.Finally,numerical simulations are presented to verify the effectiveness and the robustness of the proposed algorithm.

Rotational parameters estimation of maneuvering target in ISAR imaging

The rotational parameters estimation of maneuvering target is the key of cross-range scaling of ISAR （inverse synthetic aperture radar）, which can be used in the target feature extraction. The cross-range signal model of rotating target with fixed acceleration is presented and the weighted linear least squares estimation of rotational parameters with fixed velocity or acceleration is proposed via the relationship of cross-range FM （frequency modulation） parameter, scatterers coordinates and rotational parameters. The FM parameter is calculated via RWT （Radon-Wigner transform）. The ISAR imaging and cross-range scaling based on scaled RWT imaging method are implemented after obtaining rotational parameters. The rotational parameters estimation and cross-range scaling are validated by the ISAR processing of experimental radar data, and the method presents good application foreground to the ISAR imaging and scaling of maneuvering target.

A New Class of L-Moments Based Calibration Variance Estimators

Variance is one of themost important measures of descriptive statistics and commonly used for statistical analysis.The traditional second-order central moment based variance estimation is a widely utilized methodology.However,traditional variance estimator is highly affected in the presence of extreme values.So this paper initially,proposes two classes of calibration estimators based on an adaptation of the estimators recently proposed by Koyuncu and then presents a new class of L-Moments based calibration variance estimators utilizing L-Moments characteristics(L-location,Lscale,L-CV)and auxiliary information.It is demonstrated that the proposed L-Moments based calibration variance estimators are more efficient than adapted ones.Artificial data is considered for assessing the performance of the proposed estimators.We also demonstrated an application related to apple fruit for purposes of the article.Using artificial and real data sets,percentage relative efficiency(PRE)of the proposed class of estimators with respect to adapted ones are calculated.The PRE results indicate to the superiority of the proposed class over adapted ones in the presence of extreme values.In this manner,the proposed class of estimators could be applied over an expansive range of survey sampling whenever auxiliary information is available in the presence of extreme values.

Gas emission source term estimation with 1-step nonlinear partial swarm optimization-Tikhonov regularization hybrid method

Source term identification is very important for the contaminant gas emission event. Thus, it is necessary to study the source parameter estimation method with high computation efficiency, high estimation accuracy and reasonable confidence interval. Tikhonov regularization method is a potential good tool to identify the source parameters. However, it is invalid for nonlinear inverse problem like gas emission process. 2-step nonlinear and linear PSO （partial swarm optimization）-Tikhonov regularization method proposed previously have estimated the emission source parameters successfully. But there are still some problems in computation efficiency and confidence interval. Hence, a new 1-step nonlinear method combined Tikhonov regularizafion and PSO algorithm with nonlinear forward dispersion model was proposed. First, the method was tested with simulation and experiment cases. The test results showed that 1-step nonlinear hybrid method is able to estimate multiple source parameters with reasonable confidence interval. Then, the estimation performances of different methods were compared with different cases. The estimation values with 1-step nonlinear method were close to that with 2-step nonlinear and linear PSO-Tikhonov regularization method, 1-step nonlinear method even performs better than other two methods in some cases, especially for source strength and downwind distance estimation. Compared with 2-step nonlinear method, 1-step method has higher computation efficiency. On the other hand, the confidence intervals with the method proposed in this paper seem more reasonable than that with other two methods. Finally, single PSO algorithm was compared with 1-step nonlinear PSO-Tikhonov hybrid regularization method. The results showed that the skill scores of 1-step nonlinear hybrid method to estimate source parameters were close to that of single PSO method and even better in some cases. One more important property of 1-step nonlinear PSO-Tikhonov regularization method is its reasonable confidence interval, which is not obtained by single PSO algorithm. Therefore, 1-step nonlinear hybrid regularization method proposed in this paper is a potential good method to estimate contaminant gas emission source term.

A SCR method for uncertainty estimation in geodesy non-linear error propagation: Comparisons and applications

We review three derivative-free methods developed for uncertainty estimation of non-linear error propagation, namely, MC(Monte Carlo), SUT(scaled unscented transformation), and SI(sterling interpolation). In order to avoid preset parameters like as these three methods need, we introduce a new method to uncertainty estimation for the first time, namely, SCR(spherical cubature rule), which is no need for setting parameters. By theoretical derivation, we prove that the precision of uncertainty obtained by SCR can reach second-order. We conduct four synthetic experiments, for the first two experiments, the results obtained by SCR are consistent with the other three methods with optimal setting parameters, but SCR is easier to operate than other three methods, which verifies the superiority of SCR in calculating the uncertainty. For the third experiment, real-time calculation is required, so the MC is hardly feasible. For the forth experiment, the SCR is applied to the inversion of seismic fault parameter which is a common problem in geophysics, and we study the sensitivity of surface displacements to fault parameters with errors. Our results show that the uncertainty of the surface displacements is the magnitude of ±10 mm when the fault length contains a variance of 0.01 km^(2).

Entropy Bayesian Analysis for the Generalized Inverse Exponential Distribution Based on URRSS

This paper deals with the Bayesian estimation of Shannon entropy for the generalized inverse exponential distribution.Assuming that the observed samples are taken from the upper record ranked set sampling(URRSS)and upper record values(URV)schemes.Formulas of Bayesian estimators are derived depending on a gamma prior distribution considering the squared error,linear exponential and precautionary loss functions,in addition,we obtain Bayesian credible intervals.The random-walk Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is handled to generate Markov chain Monte Carlo samples from the posterior distribution.Then,the behavior of the estimates is examined at various record values.The output of the study shows that the entropy Bayesian estimates under URRSS are more convenient than the other estimates under URV in the majority of the situations.Also,the entropy Bayesian estimates perform well as the number of records increases.The obtained results validate the usefulness and efficiency of the URV method.Real data is analyzed for more clarifying purposes which validate the theoretical results.

An Online Model Correction Method Based on an Inverse Problem:PartⅡ——Systematic Model Error Correction

An online systematic error correction is presented and examined as a technique to improve the accuracy of real-time numerical weather prediction, based on the dataset of model errors （MEs） in past intervals. Given the analyses, the ME in each interval （6 h） between two analyses can be iteratively obtained by introducing an unknown tendency term into the prediction equation, shown in Part I of this two-paper series. In this part, after analyzing the 5-year （2001-2005） GRAPES- GFS （Global Forecast System of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System） error patterns and evolution, a systematic model error correction is given based on the least-squares approach by firstly using the past MEs. To test the correction, we applied the approach in GRAPES-GFS for July 2009 and January 2010. The datasets associated with the initial condition and SST used in this study were based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） FNL （final） data. The results indicated that the Northern Hemispheric systematically underestimated equator-to-pole geopotential gradient and westerly wind of GRAPES-GFS were largely enhanced, and the biases of temperature and wind in the tropics were strongly reduced. Therefore, the correction results in a more skillful forecast with lower mean bias and root-mean-square error and higher anomaly correlation coefficient.

Parameter Estimation and Experimental Design in Groundwater Modeling

This paper reviews the latest developments on parameter estimation and experimental design in the field of groundwater modeling. Special considerations are given when the structure of the identified parameter is complex and unknown. A new methodology for constructing useful groundwater models is described, which is based on the quantitative relationships among the complexity of model structure, the identifiability of parameter, the sufficiency of data, and the reliability of model application.

Inverse Problems for Dynamic Systems: Classification and Solution Methods

The inverse problems for motions of dynamic systems of which are described by system of the ordinary differential equations are examined. The classification of such type of inverse problems is given. It was shown that inverse problems can be divided into two types: synthesis inverse problems and inverse problems of measurement (recognition). Each type of inverse problems requires separate approach to statements and solution methods. The regularization method for obtaining of stable solution of inverse problems was suggested. In some cases, instead of recognition of inverse problems solution, the estimation of solution can be used. Within the framework of this approach, two practical inverse problems of measurement are considered.

L-Moments Based Calibrated Variance Estimators Using Double Stratified Sampling

Variance is one of the most vital measures of dispersion widely employed in practical aspects.A commonly used approach for variance estimation is the traditional method of moments that is strongly influenced by the presence of extreme values,and thus its results cannot be relied on.Finding momentum from Koyuncu’s recent work,the present paper focuses first on proposing two classes of variance estimators based on linear moments(L-moments),and then employing them with auxiliary data under double stratified sampling to introduce a new class of calibration variance estimators using important properties of L-moments(L-location,L-cv,L-variance).Three populations are taken into account to assess the efficiency of the new estimators.The first and second populations are concerned with artificial data,and the third populations is concerned with real data.The percentage relative efficiency of the proposed estimators over existing ones is evaluated.In the presence of extreme values,our findings depict the superiority and high efficiency of the proposed classes over traditional classes.Hence,when auxiliary data is available along with extreme values,the proposed classes of estimators may be implemented in an extensive variety of sampling surveys.

Inverse Analysis of Origin-Destination Matrix for Microscopic Traffic Simulator

Microscopic traffic simulations are useful for solving various trafficrelated problems,e.g.traffic jams and accidents,local and global environmental and energy problems,maintaining mobility in aging societies,and evacuation planning for natural as well as man-made disasters.The origin-destination(OD)matrix is often used as the input to represent traffic demands into traffic simulators.In this study,we propose an indirect method for estimating the OD matrix using a traffic simulator as an internal model.The proposed method is designed to output results that are consistent with the input of the simulator.The method consists of the following steps:(1)calculating link traffic volume from the OD matrix,and(2)updating the matrix.The estimated matrix is updated iteratively until it converges to a predefined tolerance level.Numerical experiments are then conducted using the proposed method on a grid network and on a representation of an actual road network.Finally,we discuss the characteristics of the proposed method and the non-negative constraint for the traffic volume.

Estimation of overall heat transfer coefficient of cooling system in RF capacitive hyperthermia

The study presented in this article involves the estimation of the overall heat transfer coefficient of cooling system in RF capacitive hyperthermia treatment using inverse problem based on the conjugate gradient method to provide improved distribution of temperature. The temperature data computed numerically from the direct problem using the finite difference time domain method are used to simulate the temperature measurements. The effects of the errors and sensor positions upon the precision of the estimated results are also considered. The results show that a reasonable estimation of the unknown can be obtained. Finally, measurements in a tissue-equivalent phantom are employed to appraise the reliability of the presented method. The comparison of computed data with measurements shows a good agreement between numerical and experimental results.

Modeling Reliability Engineering Data Using Scale-Invariant Quasi-Inverse Lindley Model

An important property that any lifetime model should satisfy is scale invariance.In this paper,a new scale-invariant quasi-inverse Lindley(QIL)model is presented and studied.Its basic properties,including moments,quantiles,skewness,kurtosis,and Lorenz curve,have been investigated.In addition,the well-known dynamic reliability measures,such as failure rate(FR),reversed failure rate(RFR),mean residual life(MRL),mean inactivity time(MIT),quantile residual life(QRL),and quantile inactivity time(QIT)are discussed.The FR function considers the decreasing or upside-down bathtub-shaped,and the MRL and median residual lifetime may have a bathtub-shaped form.The parameters of the model are estimated by applying the maximum likelihood method and the expectation-maximization(EM)algorithm.The EM algorithm is an iterative method suitable for models with a latent variable,for example,when we have mixture or competing risk models.A simulation study is then conducted to examine the consistency and efficiency of the estimators and compare them.The simulation study shows that the EM approach provides a better estimation of the parameters.Finally,the proposed model is fitted to a reliability engineering data set along with some alternatives.The Akaike information criterion(AIC),Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S),Cramer-von Mises(CVM),and Anderson Darling(AD)statistics are used to compare the considered models.