Impact of the carbon market on investment benefits of power-grid enterprises in China: a system dynamics analysis

The power grid,as the hub connecting the power supply and consumption sides,plays an important role in achieving carbon neutrality in China.In emerging carbon markets,assessing the investment benefits of power-grid enterprises is essential.Thus,studying the impact of the carbon market on the investment and operation of powergrid enterprises is key to ensuring their efficient operation.Notably,few studies have examined the interaction between the carbon and electricity markets using system dynamics models,highlighting a research gap in this area.This study investigates the impact of the carbon market on the investment of power-grid enterprises using a novel evaluation system based on a system dynamics model that considers carbon-emissions from an established carbon-emission accounting model.First,an index system for benefit evaluation was constructed from six aspects:financing ability,economic benefit,reliability,social responsibility,user satisfaction,and carbon-emissions.A system dynamics model was then developed to reflect the causal feedback relationship between the impact of the carbon market on the investment and operation of power-grid enterprises.The simulation results of a provincial power-grid enterprise analyze comprehensive investment evaluation benefits over a 10-year period and the impact of carbon emissions on the investment and operation of power-grid enterprises.This study provides guidelines for the benign development of power-grid enterprises within the context of the carbon market.

Study of evaluation method for the overseas oil and gas investment based on risk compensation

The overseas oil and gas investment evaluation is one of the core tasks in overseas investment of oil and gas companies,among which risk evaluation and benefit evaluation are the most important.This paper sets forth transmission paths of risk factors to the investment benefit by identifying 14 overseas oil and gas investment risks in four categories.On the basis of the concept of risk compensation,different compensation mechanisms specific to each risk are designed.The risk and benefit are integrated objectively to develop a comprehensive evaluation model by correcting the recoverable reserve,adjusting benefit evaluation parameters such as investments on exploration and development,and compensating for the changes in risk factors with time through dynamic discount rate.Moreover,two cases studies,namely the evaluations of Project A in Sudan and comparison among Blocks A–G,are used to describe usage method and applicable scope of such evaluation model,respectively.According to the results,oil price is a key influencing factor for enterprise internal risk and industrial risk.Risk compensation reduces comprehensive benefit of overseas oil and gas investment and undermines the investment feasibility and priority of blocks.The research findings of this paper are free from the effects of some subject factors and avoid multi-objective decision making,and also avoid the undesired repeated calculation of risk factors.

Evaluation and Forecasting of Wind Energy Investment Risk along the Belt and Road Based on a Novel Hybrid Intelligent Model

The timely and effective investment risk assessment and forecasting are of great significance to ensure the investment safety and sustainable development of wind energy along the Belt and Road.In order to obtain the scientific and real-time forecasting result,this paper constructs a novel hybrid intelligent model based on improved cloud model combined with GRA-TOPSIS and MBA-WLSSVM.Firstly,the factors influencing investment risk of wind energy along the Belt and Road are identified fromthree dimensions:endogenous risk,exogenous risk and process risk.Through the fuzzy threshold method,the final input index system is selected.Secondly,the risk evaluation method based on improved cloud model andGRA-TOPSIS is proposed.Thirdly,a modern intelligent model based on MBA-WLSSVMis designed.In modified bat algorithm(MBA),tent chaotic map is utilized to improve the basic bat algorithm,while weighted least squares support vector machine(WLSSVM)adopts wavelet kernel function to replace the traditional radial basis function to complete the model improvement.Finally,an example is given to verify the scientificity and accuracy of themodel,which is helpful for investors tomake fast and effective investment risk forecasting of wind energy along the Belt and Road.The example analysis proves that the proposedmodel can provide reference and basis for investment corpus to formulate the investment strategy in wind energy along the Belt and Road.

An Investment Decision Support System for Process Industries

Most studies on investment evaluation mainly focus on enterprise economic benefits only, without process operability and sustainability considered. In this paper, we suggest that investment evaluation in process industries should be executed under three strategic objectives--enterprise benefits, social benefits and customer benefits. A systematic investment evaluation and decision-making method with a four-step procedure based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed to evaluate various qualitative and quantitative elements with various criteria. At the first step, the decision hierarchy is constructed under the three strategic objectives. Second, pair-wise comparison is utilized to evaluate the weights of elements and criteria. Third, qualitative elements are quantified by pair-wise comparison and quantitative elements are re-scaled by a uniform criterion. At the last, the best choice is made through synthesizing values upward in the hierarchy. An investment decision support system (DSS) is developed based on Microsoft Excel, and applied to a retrofit investment of united fluid catalytic cracking(FCC) and liquefied gas separation process in a refinery plant.

The Application of Case Method in the Teaching of Investment Project Evaluation

Case Method originated in the 1920s and was initiated by Harvard Business School in the United States.At that time,it adopted a unique style of case study,which was based on real situations or events in business management,in this way,it is helpful to cultivate and develop students’active participation in class discussion.For investment students,specialized courses such as Investment Project Evaluation and corporate finance are concentrated in the upper grades,and in the freshman,sophomore phase has completed the Finance,finance,macroeconomics and other basic courses.On the basis of students’existing knowledge structure,the course“Investment Project Evaluation”needs to fully tap students’potential in learning and train students’practical problem-solving ability,to cultivate students’thinking ability of combining theoretical knowledge with practical cases,to avoid the teaching mode of“I tell you to listen”,and to guide students to think,analyze and solve problems actively.

Analysis on Rules of Investment Decision Based on Payback Period of Dynamic Investment

The index of payback period of dynamic investment is an improvement on index of payback period of static investment, which is the problem that the rules to evaluate the project are feasible or not. This paper proves that rules shall be apt when using payback period of dynamic investment to evaluate the project feasibility under the condition of keeping the dynamic evaluation index to evaluate the same scheme and the consistent feasibility.

Approach Evaluating an Investment Project under Uncertainty by Risky Index of Time

The effectiveness of evaluating an investment project based on predicting cash flows depends on the uncertainty of its future cash flows. The remoter the cash flows are, the higher the uncertainty is. Because of this, this paper suggests to discount cash flows by applying risky index of time （RIT）. Thus, the discount rate used to discount the distant cash flows is higher that the discount rate used to discount the near cash flows. By this systematic method, the risk caused by the uncertainty of future cash flows can be hedged in making investment decision. To a certain degree, this approach is reasonable in evaluating investment alternatives under uncertainty. Furthermore, the paper puts forward a practical approach on determining RIT in practice.