Response of the Ionospheric F_2-region Over Irkutsk and Hainan to Strong Geomagnetic Storms

The ionospheric responses to two strong storms on 17-19 August 2003 and 22-23 January 2004 are studied,using the data from Irkutsk(52.5°N,104°E) and Hainan(19.5°N,109°E) ionospheric stations.The analysis of variations in relative deviations of the critical frequency △f_0F_2 revealed that at middle latitudes(Irkutsk) negative disturbances were observed in the summer ionosphere; positive and negative ones,in the winter ionosphere during the main and recovery phases respectively.At low latitudes(Hainan),the disturbances were positive in all the cases considered. Mechanisms of the disturbances were analyzed with the aid of empirical models of the neutral atmosphere NRLMSISE-00 and thermospheric wind HWM07.The main factors determining △f_0F_2 variations at middle latitudes during the storms were demonstrated to be the disturbed equatorward thermospheric wind transporting the disturbed atmospheric composition,the increase in the atomic oxygen concentration,and the passage of internal gravity waves.At low latitudes,the effects associated with neutral composition variations are less significant than those of the thermospheric wind and electric fields.

Ionospheric disturbances following the March 2015 geomagnetic storm from GPS observations in China

When strong solar activities and geomagnetic storms happen, satellite communications and navigation system will be strongly disturbed. It is of great significance to monitor ionospheric disturbances,because empirical models cannot capture ionospheric anomalous disturbances well. Nowadays, dualfrequency GPS(Global Positioning System) observations can be used to estimate the ionospheric total electron content, correct the ionospheric delay and analyze the response of the ionosphere to geomagnetic storms. In this paper, the ionospheric response to the geomagnetic storm occurred in March 2015 is investigated using GPS observations provided by Crustal Movement of Observation Network of China. The result shows that this storm increases the electron density in the ionosphere quickly and disrupts the structure of the northern equatorial anomaly region at the beginning. In the main process stage, compared with that in the quite periods, the VTEC(Vertical Total Electron Content)around the longitude of 120°E decreases by 50% and the amount of depletion is larger in the high latitude region than that in the low latitude region. We also find the height of the peak electron density in F2 layer increases during the geomagnetic storm from the electron density profiles derived from GPS occultation mission.

Ionospheric Effects of Geomagnetic Storms in Different Longitude Sectors

This paper analyzes the state of the ionosphere during two geomagnetic storms of a different intensity evolving in different sectors of local time in different seasons. There were used the data from a network of ionospheric stations located in the opposite longitudinal sectors of 80°-150° E and 250°-310° E.This analysis has permitted us to conclude that the detected differences in the variations of the disturbances are likely to be determined by the local time difference of the geomagnetic storm development, its intensity and by the different illumination conditions of the ionosphere.

Global investigation of the ionospheric irregularities during the severe geomagnetic storm on September 7-8, 2017

In this study,the global effects of the severe geomagnetic storm on the Earth’s ionosphere on September5 e9,2017 with Coronal Mass Ejections(CMEs)associated with X-9.3 flares on September 6,2017 were investigated by the Rate of Total Electron Content(TEC)Index(ROTI).ROTI was used as a criterion of ionospheric irregularities that took place during the storm.This study was conducted with TEC values obtained from fifty stations connected to the International GNSS System(IGS)-GPS network for five different latitude regions.As a result,it was observed that the irregularities in the high latitude regions of the southern hemisphere were greater in number in comparison with those at the high latitude regions of the northern hemisphere during the storm.It was observed that these irregularities generally occurred during the main and recovery phases of the storm at all latitudes.The weak and moderate ionospheric irregularities that developed at high latitudes during the storm were more in the southern hemisphere.Especially,moderate ionospheric irregularities in high latitudes of both hemispheres took place in eastern longitudes(18 oE-160 oE).However,ionospheric irregularities in the mid-latitude regions were observed in more stations at the northern hemisphere than at the southern hemisphere.Generally,ionospheric irregularities during the storm developed at eastern longitudes in all sectors.

Observations of equatorial plasma bubbles during the geomagnetic storm of October 2016

We investigated the variations of equatorial plasma bubbles(EPBs)in the East-Asian sector during a strong geomagnetic storm in October 2016,based on observations from the Beidou geostationary(GEO)satellites,Swarm satellite and ground-based ionosonde.Significant nighttime depletions of F region in situ electron density from Swarm and obvious nighttime EPBs in the Beidou GEO observations were observed on 13 October 2016 during the main phase.Moreover,one interesting feature is that the rare and unique sunrise EPBs were triggered on 14 October 2016 in the main phase rather than during the recovery phase as reported by previous studies.In addition,the nighttime EPBs were suppressed during the whole recovery phase,and absent from 14 to 19 October 2016.Meanwhile,the minimum virtual height of F trace(h’F)at Sanya(18.3°N,109.6°E,MLAT 11.1°N)displayed obvious changes during these intervals.The h’F was enhanced in the main phase and declined during the recovery phase,compared with the values at pre-and post-storm.These results indicate that the enhanced nighttime EPBs and sunrise EPBs during the main phase and the absence nighttime EPBs for many days during the recovery phase could be associated with storm-time electric field changes.

Modelling of Geomagnetic Storm Effects in the Ionosphere of East Asia

This paper presents simulated results of the ionospheric behavior during few geomagnetic storms,which were occurred in the different seasons. The numerical model for ionosphere-plasmasphere coupling was used to interpret the observed variation of ionosphere structure. Reasons why the positive storms are dominant in the winter whereas the negative ones are dominant in the summer season present the special interest for the mid-latitude ionosphere. A theoretical analysis of the processes controlling the ionospheric response to the geomagnetic storms has showed a good agreement between the simulated results and measurements, as well as the crucial role of the neutral composition variations to fit the calculated and the observed ionospheric parameters.

Moderate Geomagnetic Storm Condition,WAAS Alerts and Real GPS Positioning Quality

The most significant part of Wade Area Augmentation System (WAAS) integrity consists of the User Differential Range Error (UDRE) and the Grid Ionospheric Vertical Error (GIVE). WAAS solutions are not completely appropriate to determine the GIVE term within the entire coverage zone taking in account real irregular structure of the ionosphere. It leads to the larger confidence bounding terms and lower expected positioning availability in comparison to the reality under geomagnetic storm conditions and system outages. Thus a question arises: is the basic WAAS concept appropriate to provide the same efficiency of the integrity monitoring for both “global differential correction”(i.e. clock, ephemeris et al.) and “local differential correction”(i.e. ionosphrere, troposhpere and multipath)? The aim of this paper is to compare official WAAS integrity monitoring reports and real positioning quality in US coverage zone (CONUS) and Canada area under geomagnetic storm con-ditions and system outages. In this research we are interested in compari-son between real GPS positioning quality based on single-frequency C/A ranging mode and HAL (VAL) values which correspond to the LP, LPV and LPV200 requirements. Significant mismatch of the information be-tween WAAS integrity data and real positioning quality was unfolded as a result of this comparison under geomagnetic storms and system outages on February 14, 2011 and June 22, 2015. Based on this result we think that in order to achieve high confidence of WAAS positioning availability alerts real ionospheric measurements within the wide area coverage zone must be involved instead of the WAAS GIVE values. The better way to realize this idea is to combine WAAS solutions to derive “global differential cor-rections” and LAAS solutions to derive “local differential corrections”.

电离层暴时经验模型STORM在中国区域的适应性研究

利用中国区域内9个垂测站1976—1987年一个太阳活动周期的电离层暴时f_0F_2数据,统计分析了电离层暴事件的等级,以及不同等级的电离层暴随季节和地磁纬度的分布特征.研究发现,中小型电离层暴在春秋季发生的概率较大,不同季节的发生次数与地磁纬度具有明显的关系.利用STORM模型对电离层暴时f_0F_2和大型及特大型电离层暴时f_0F_2的预测值与月中值进行了比较.结果表明,除了冬季误差增大外,发生电离层暴时STORM模型能够有效地改善月中值模型.增加中国的暴时数据,并提高对冬季的暴时参数f_0F_2的预测是改善STORM模型的重要因素.建立合适的暴时指数来预测f_0F_2是未来研究的重点.

2015年3月特大磁暴期间中国区域电离层TEC NeuralProphet预报模型研究

延迟是全球卫星导航定位中重要的误差源之一,提高电离层TEC建模和预报精度对改善卫星导航定位精度至关重要.本文构建了以太阳辐射通量指数F_(10.7)、地磁活动指数Dst、地理坐标和中国科学院(Chinese Academy of Sciences,CAS)GIM数据为输入参数的NeuralProphet神经网络模型(NP模型),实现在2015年3月特大磁暴期中国区域电离层TEC短期预报.为验证NP模型的预报精度,本文同时构建了长短期记忆神经网络(Long Short-term Memory Neural Network,LSTM)模型进行对比分析.结果统计分析表明,NP模型在磁暴期(2015年DOY076-078)TEC预报值RMSE和RD分别为0.83 TECU和3.13%,绝对和相对精度较LSTM模型分别提高1.49 TECU和10.25%;且NP模型RMSE优于1.5 TECU的比例达97.24%,远高于LSTM模型.NP模型预报值与CAS具有较好一致性和无偏性,偏差均值仅为-0.01 TECU,而LSTM模型预报值的均值偏大,偏差均值为1.49 TECU.从低纬到中纬度的三个纬度带内,NP模型RMSE分别为1.12、0.83和0.44 TECU,精度比LSTM模型提高1.94、1.56和1.23 TECU.整体上,在磁暴期NP模型预报性能明显优于LSTM模型,能够精细描述中国区域电离层TEC时空变化.

BDS GEO卫星的电离层VTEC反演性能评估

北斗卫星导航系统(BDS)的地球同步轨道(GEO)卫星可以对固定穿刺点总电子含量(TEC)进行连续观测,可为电离层模型精化提供约束,但BDS GEO卫星探测范围包含了20000 km以上的稀薄等离子体,为了进一步研究其对TEC反演造成的影响,提出一种性能评估方法:利用BDS GEO卫星双频观测数据提取电离层穿刺点处的垂向电子总含量(VTEC);然后分析穿刺点处VTEC变化特性,并与全球电离层图、相邻中圆轨道(MEO)卫星反演VTEC比较;最后以经验电子模型为参考,评估2种卫星探测的等离子体层总电子含量。结果表明:研究区域内GEO-VTEC与全球电离层图有较好的一致性;在不同的地磁条件下,GEO-VTEC与MEO-VTEC偏差的均方根值接近,最大不超过2.46个总电子含量单位;GEO与MEO卫星探测的等离子体层TEC值接近,20000 km以上的等离子体对于TEC的影响可以忽略。说明GEO-VTEC与常用电离层产品以及MEO-VTEC的性能一致。

用银河宇宙线判定几个引起特大磁暴CME的运动方向

利用位于南北极尖区位置的McMurdo和Thule台站的宇宙线强度的观测数据,分析了几个引起特大磁暴CME的来向.分析结果表明,所选的与4个特大磁暴相关的CME基本是朝正对磁层顶的方向运动并与磁层作用的.通过对引起第23周两个特大磁暴的CME特征分析对照,发现CME的来向是影响磁暴强弱的一个因素.同样条件下,运动方向偏向地球一侧的CME引起的磁暴比正对地球的CME引起的磁暴要弱.

2000年行星际南向磁场事件及相关CME的若干分析

根据WIND飞船的观测资料,讨论了2000年发生的南向磁场(Bs)事件,分析了它们的源,发现12次事件中有11次的源是日冕物质抛射(CME).运用从地球向太阳时间倒推的方法和LASCO,EIT195 A的观测资料,确定了这些CME.它们都是快速CME,伴有行星际激波,都具有晕状(Halo)形态.它们在日面上发生的位置是在一个不对称的区域内.还分析了其中5个强南向磁场(Bs≥20nT)事件,发现它们的CME源,或者具有很高的能量,或者抛射方向正对地球,或者是具有叠加效应的CME系列.分析表明,在我们所讨论的太阳活动高年,大的行星际扰动和强地磁暴与高速流的联系并不密切.

地磁暴期间电离层监测及不同GNSS观测模式下受扰分析

基于IGS全球观测站观测数据及IGS电离层格网数据,分析了2018年8月26日地磁暴事件引发的北半球地区电离层总电子含量(TEC)异常变化和观测数据质量变化。结果表明,北半球TEC异常存在纬度差异,高纬地区响应快,低纬地区异常值变化大;磁暴期间高纬地区观测数据周跳变化明显,数据完整率在北半球范围内都有下降,最大下降出现在高纬地区,达38.65%,数据质量与TEC异常变化规律较为一致。对GPS双频精密单点定位(Precise Point Positioning,PPP)结果进行分析,发现磁暴期间高纬地区测站动态PPP定位误差显著增大,水平和垂直均方根误差增至约0.7m及1.8m,静态PPP部分测站受影响。RTK观测在磁暴期间也存在受影响的可能,表现为固定率下降,定位误差增大。

河北区域电离层精细建模及磁暴响应特征研究

经常发生的地磁暴可引起电离层异常,并导致穿过电离层的GNSS导航信号产生异常延迟甚至难以被观测处理。因此,有必要对地球磁暴引起的电离层异常响应特征开展系统深入研究。在已有的全球电离层异常研究基础上,充分发挥了省级连续运行参考站(Continuous Operation Reference Station,CORS)网测站密度大、数据细节丰富的优势,建立了区域电离层模型,精细化提取了电离层异常值。初步分析了磁暴期间电离层异常响应的时序关系、量级大小、空间分布和变化规律等:(1)磁暴与区域电离层异常之间的时间响应特征显示,地球磁暴可引起电离层异常,电离层异常在响应时间方面具有拖尾效应,磁暴结束24 h后电离层才恢复至磁暴前正常水平。(2)磁暴引起电离层垂直电子总含量(Vertical Total Electron Content,VTEC)异常变化的量级特征显示,小磁暴引起电离层天顶方向电子总量增大约9.5 TECU,对应视线方向电子总量增大约36 TECU。(3)磁暴引起电离层异常的空间分布特征显示,高纬度地区的电离层异常响应大于低纬度地区。(4)电离层异常响应的空间变化特征显示,磁暴期间电离层异常响应首先呈现出从南向北增大延伸态势;当电离层VTEC及其异常值达到峰值后,电离层异常响应呈现从北向南减弱回归态势。

Statistical Study of the Geoeffectivity of Halo Coronal Mass Ejections Associated with X-Class Flares during Solar Cycles 23 and 24

By analysing a long series of data (1996-2019), we show that solar cycle 23 was more marked by violent solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) compared to solar cycle 24. In particular, the halo coronal mass ejections associated with X-class flares appear to be among the most energetic events in solar activity given the size of the flares, the speed of the CMEs and the intense geomagnetic storms they produce. Out of eighty-six (86) X-class halo CMEs, thirty-seven (37) or 43% are highly geoeffective;twenty-four (24) or approximately 28% are moderately geoeffective and twenty-five (25) or 29% are not geoeffective. Over the two solar cycles (1996 to 2019), 71% of storms were geoeffective and 29% were not. For solar cycle 23, about 78% of storms were geoeffective, while for solar cycle 24, about 56% were geoeffective. For the statistical study based on speed, 85 halo CMEs associated with X-class flares were selected because the CME of 6 December 2006 has no recorded speed value. For both solar cycles, 75.29% of the halo CMEs associated with X-class flares have a speed greater than 1000 km/s. The study showed that 42.18% of halo (X) CMEs with speeds above 1000 km/s could cause intense geomagnetic disturbances. These results show the contribution (in terms of speed) of each class of halo (X) CMEs to the perturbation of the Earth’s magnetic field. Coronal mass ejections then become one of the key indicators of solar activity, especially as they affect the Earth.

中低纬地区电离层对CIR和CME响应的统计分析

本文利用中低纬日本地区（131°E,35°N）GPS-TEC格点化数据,分析了2001—2009年间109个共转相互作用区（CIR）事件、45个日冕物质抛射（CME）事件引起的地磁扰动期间电离层的响应.结果表明,电离层暴的类型随太阳活动的变化而有不同的变化,CIR事件引发的电离层正相暴、正负双相暴多发生在太阳活动下降年,负相暴多发生在高年,负正双相暴多发生在低年;CME事件引发的电离层正相暴和负相暴多发生在高年.CIR和CME引发的不同类型的电离层暴的季节性差异不大,在夏季多发生正负双相暴.电离层暴发生时间相对地磁暴的时延大部分在-6～6h之间,但CIR引发的电离层暴时延范围更广,在-12～24h之间,而CME引发的电离层暴时延主要在-6～6h之间.中低纬的电离层暴多发生在主相阶段,其中CIR引发的双相暴也会发生在初相阶段.电离层负暴多发生在AE最大值为800～1200nT之间.CIR引起的电离层扰动持续时间较长,一般在1～6天左右,而CME引起的电离层扰动持续时间一般在1～4天左右.

CME引起的地磁暴穿越时间

日冕物质抛射(CME)从发生至引起地磁暴最大值的时间间隔称为穿越时间.本文选取1997-2015年89个CME-Dst事件,分析CME速度、能量、耀斑类型等对穿越时间的影响;采用非线性拟合以及支持向量机(SVM)非线性回归技术,建立基于1997-2009年62个CME-Dst事件的CF模型和SVM模型,并利用其余27个CME-Dst事件对模型预报效果分别进行检验.结果表明,CF模型和SVM模型的预报准确率均达到85.2%,其中CF模型的平均绝对值误差为13.77 h,而SVM模型为13.88 h.与ECA模型结果(准确率为77.8%,平均绝对值误差为14.55 h)进行对比发现,CF模型和SVM模型的准确率更高而误差更小.CF模型和SVM模型能够提前1~5天较好地预报地磁暴爆发时间.

CME on March 16, 2001, electron pulsation event and solar-terrestrial phenomena related with CMEs

The electron pulsation event is defined in the paper. Firstly, a slow Halo CME on March 16, 2001 that led to low-energetic solar proton event, electron pulsation event and major geomagnetic storm was analyzed. And then, dozens of events are collected. The interrelations among the solar flare, CME, solar proton event, electron pulsation event and geomagnetic storm are studied. The results show that: (ⅰ) Solar proton events can be regarded as the indication that CMEs get to the earth and the electron pulsation events can be regarded as the indication of solar proton flux. (ⅱ) Not only can fast CMEs strongly influence the earth, but also slow CMEs can influence the earth, and its influences are more frequent and cannot be neglected. (ⅲ) Most of high-energetic solar proton events with E≥10 MeV can lead to geomagnetic storms, but most of the medium and weak geomagnetic storms result from low-energetic solar proton events that are caused by CMEs. (ⅳ) Both the electron pulsation events and geomagnetic storms are the link effects of high- and low-energetic solar proton events, but the occurrence of electron pulsation event are generally prior to the geomagnetic storm. So in the circumstance where the near real-time observing data of the low-energetic solar proton event cannot be obtained, we can regard electron pulsation event as the indication of the low-energetic solar proton flux reaching the earth, which can be used as one of the important 参考文献 of short-term prediction and alert of the geomagnetic storm.

2017-09-07-08磁暴期间全球尺度电离层扰动

基于全球6个CORS系统和IGS共2 645个站点的观测数据以及欧洲定轨中心(CODE)的全球电离层格网数据,利用电离层层析技术重构2017-09-07-08磁暴期间全球范围电离层电子密度变化情况。分析发现,2次电离层扰动均始于磁暴发生约1 h后,并随着磁暴的恢复而减小,二者发展趋势有强相关性。电离层扰动遍布全球,存在明显的赤道电离层异常现象。总体来看,低纬度地区电离层扰动强度大于中高纬度区域,200-400 km高度中层区域电离层扰动强度大于底层和高层,电子密度变化量达(3.3-9.4)×10^(5) el/cm^(3)。第1次磁暴恢复相期间,低纬度地区仍存在较强电离层扰动;第2次磁暴恢复相期间,电离层扰动呈现南北半球不对称现象,北半球电子密度减少,南半球电子密度增加。

中国地区电离层TEC暴扰动研究

电离层总电子含量(TEC)是空间天气研究和监测预报的重要参量.本文引入了电离层TEC扰动指数DI,对青岛等6个台站的DI数据进行分析,选取DI>0.35(DI≤-0.30)作为正(负)相电离层TEC扰动的强度标准,并以连续6h及以上的DI满足该值来判定电离层TEC暴扰动事件.对电离层TEC暴扰动事件的统计分析表明,在地方时日落后至子夜前为发生高峰时段,正(负)相暴扰动事件平均持续时间约为10.9h(10.5h),正相暴发生率以冬季为多,夏季为少,而负相暴则以夏季略高.发现位于赤道异常驼峰区的广州站和位于高中纬度的海拉尔站比典型中纬地区的北京站电离层TEC暴扰动更易发生,且低纬地区以正相暴扰动为主.分析表明,约有70%的电离层TEC暴扰动伴随着有地磁扰动,但是电离层TEC暴扰动并不完全由地磁扰动所引起,强烈气象活动等局地环境因素也可能对电离层TEC暴扰动有着重要影响.