Longitudinal dependence of the forecast accuracy of the ionospheric total electron content in the equatorial zone

The longitudinal dependence of the behavior of ionospheric parameters has been the subject of a number of works where significant variations are discovered.This also applies to the prediction of the ionospheric total electron content(TEC),which neural network methods have recently been widely used.However,the results are mainly presented for a limited set of meridians.This paper examines the longitudinal dependence of the TEC forecast accuracy in the equatorial zone.In this case,the methods are used that provided the best accuracy on three meridians:European(30°E),Southeastern(110°E)and American(75°W).Results for the stations considered are analyzed as a function of longitude using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Global Ionosphere Map(JPL GIM)for 2015.These results are for 2 h ahead and 24 h ahead forecast.It was found that in this case,based on the metric values,three groups of architectures can be distinguished.The first group included long short-term memory(LSTM),gated recurrent unit(GRU),and temporal convolutional networks(TCN)models as a part of unidirectional deep learning models;the second group is based on the recurrent models from the first group,which were supplemented with a bidirectional algorithm,increasing the TEC forecasting accuracy by 2-3 times.The third group,which includes the bidirectional TCN architecture(BiTCN),provided the highest accuracy.For this architecture,according to data obtained for 9 equatorial stations,practical independence of the TEC prediction accuracy from longitude was observed under the following metrics(Mean Absolute Error MAE,Root Mean Square Error RMSE,Mean Absolute Percentage Error MAPE):MAE(2 h)is 0.2 TECU approximately;MAE(24 h)is 0.4 TECU approximately;RMSE(2 h)is less than 0.5 TECU except Niue station(RMSE(2 h)is 1 TECU approximately);RMSE(24 h)is in the range of 1.0-1.7 TECU;MAPE(2 h)<1%except Darwin station,MAPE(24 h)<2%.This result was confirmed by data from additional 5 stations that formed latitudinal chains in the equatorial part of the three meridians.The complete correspondence of the observational and predicted TEC values is illustrated using several stations for disturbed conditions on December 19-22,2015,which included the strongest magnetic storm in the second half of the year(min Dst=-155 nT).

Ionospheric total electron content disturbance associated with May 12, 2008,Wenchuan earthquake

Possible ionospheric disturbances relating to the May 12, 2008, MsS.0 Wenchuan earthquake were identified by Global Positioning System （GPS）-derived total electron content （TEC）, ion- osonde observations, the global ionospheric map （GIM）, and electron density profiles detected by the Constellation Observation System for Meteorology Ionosphere and Climate （COSMIC）. We applied a statistical test to detect anomalous TEC signals and found that a unique enhancement in TEC, recorded at 16 GPS stations, appeared on May 9, 2008. The critical fre- quency at F2 peak （foF2）, observed by the Chinese ionosondes, and maximal plasma frequency, derived from COSMIC data, revealed a characteristic similar to GPS TEC variations. The GIM showed that the anomalous variations of May 9 were located southeast of the epicenter. Using GPS data from 13 stations near the epicenter, we analyzed the TEC variations of satellite orbit traces during 04：00-11：00 UT. We found that TEC decreased to the east and increased to the southeast of the epicenter during this period. Results showed that the abnormal disturbance on May 9 was probably an ionosphenc precursor of the Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008.

Ionospheric vertical total electron content prediction model in low-latitude regions based on long short-term memory neural network

Ionosphere delay is one of the main sources of noise affecting global navigation satellite systems, operation of radio detection and ranging systems and very-long-baseline-interferometry. One of the most important and common methods to reduce this phase delay is to establish accurate nowcasting and forecasting ionospheric total electron content models. For forecasting models, compared to mid-to-high latitudes, at low latitudes, an active ionosphere leads to extreme differences between long-term prediction models and the actual state of the ionosphere. To solve the problem of low accuracy for long-term prediction models at low latitudes, this article provides a low-latitude, long-term ionospheric prediction model based on a multi-input-multi-output, long-short-term memory neural network. To verify the feasibility of the model, we first made predictions of the vertical total electron content data 24 and 48 hours in advance for each day of July 2020 and then compared both the predictions corresponding to a given day, for all days. Furthermore, in the model modification part, we selected historical data from June 2020 for the validation set, determined a large offset from the results that were predicted to be active, and used the ratio of the mean absolute error of the detected results to that of the predicted results as a correction coefficient to modify our multi-input-multi-output long short-term memory model. The average root mean square error of the 24-hour-advance predictions of our modified model was 4.4 TECU, which was lower and better than5.1 TECU of the multi-input-multi-output, long short-term memory model and 5.9 TECU of the IRI-2016 model.

Manifestations of the earthquake preparations in the ionosphere total electron content variations

Recent ionospheric observations report anomalous total electron content (TEC) deviations prior strong earthquakes. We discuss common fetures of the pre-earthquake TEC disturbances on the basis of statistics covering 50 strong seismic events during 2005-2006. The F2-layer ionospheric plasma drift under action of the electric fields of seismic origin is proposed as the main reason of producing TEC anomalies. The origin of such electric fields is discussed in terms of the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling system. This theory is supported by numerical simulations using global Upper Atmosphere Model (UAM). UAM calculations show that the vertical electric current with the density of about 20 - 40 nA/m2 flowing between the Earth and ionosphere over an area of about 200 by 2000 km is required to produce the TEC disturbances with the amplitude of about 30% - 50% relatively to the non-disturbed conditions. Ionosphere responses on the variations of the latitudinal position, direction and configuration of the vertical electric currents have been investigated. We show that not only the vertical component of the ionospheric plasma drift but also horizontal components play an important role in producing pre-earthquake TEC disturbances.

Questions on Optimization of Measurement of Total Electron Content in Ionosphere with GPS

The analysis of existing method for calculation of total content of electrons (TEC) in ionosphere using GPS occultation method does show that due to different values of signal/noise ration in GPS signals ?and , the new method of optimum measurements of relevant frequency components of TEC measured by phase and code methods should be developed. The optimum quantity of measurements of the above-mentioned frequency components is determined taking into account the limitation imposed on general number of necessary measurements.

Anomalous variations in ionospheric TEC prior to the 2011 Japan Ms9.0 earthquake

The ionospheric total-electron-content （IGS） network and the VTEC data from the GPS （TEC） data provided by the International GNSS Service reference stations of Crustal Movement Observational Network of China（CMONC） were processed and statistically analyzed to search for earthquake-related TEC anomalies prior to the 2011 magnitude 9.0 earthquake in Japan. Preliminary results showed that anomalous variations oc- curred 6 - 11 days and 0 - 4 days prior to the earthquake. After considering solar activity, geomagnetic condi- tions, and proximity in space and time to the earthquake, we tentatively concluded that the anomalous increase on March 5 may be related to the earthquake.

Investigation of ionospheric TEC changes related to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake based on statistic analysis and signal detection

Ionospheric TEC （total electron content） time series are derived from GPS measurements at 13 stations around the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Defining anomaly bounds for a sliding window by quartile and 2-standard deviation of TEC values, this paper analyzed the characteristics of ionospheric changes before and after the destructive event. The Neyman-Pearson signal detection method is employed to compute the probabilities of TEC abnormalities. Result shows that one week before the Wenchuan earthquake, ionospheric TEC over the epicenter and its vicinities displays obvious abnormal disturbances, most of which are positive anomalies. The largest TEC abnormal changes appeared on May 9, three days prior to the seismic event. Signal detection shows that the largest possibility ofTEC abnormity on May 9 is 50.74%, indicating that ionospheric abnormities three days before the main shock are likely related to the preparation process of the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake.

A statistical investigation of pre-earthquake ionospheric TEC anomalies

Previous researches show that the total electron content （TEC） in the ionospheric exhibits anomalous disturbances a few days or hours prior to earthquakes. The paper used TEC data from Internet GPS Service （ IGS）, and examined 50 earthquakes of magnitude Ms ≥ 7.0 during 2007 - 2009 worldwide. The result shows significant anomalous increases and decreases about 7 days prior to 94% of the earthquakes.

Ionospheric VTEC anomalies before Ms7.1 Yushu earthquake

Vertical total electron content is examined to check whether the Ms7.1 Yushu earthquake on April 14, 2010, may have caused any anomalous ionospheric changes. The result shows two TEC increases over the epicenter vicinity on April 1 and 5; these anomalies drifted from east to west, the latter across the whole China. The increase on April 5 was probably related to geomagnetic activity, whereas the one on April 1 may pos- sibly be related to the Yushu earthquake.

Ionospheric Responses to a Total Solar Eclipse Deduced by the GPS Beacon Observations

The total electron content (TEC) data during the total eclipse of March 9, 1997 were collected, which were observed by means of nine GPS receivers located at the eastern Asia. The responses of total TEC to the eclipse were analyzed. The results show that: 1) the eclipse led to apparent decrement in TEC that lasted for six to eight hours; 2) the maximum decrement occurred after the middle of the eclipse with time delays varying from twenty minutes to about three hours; 3) the maximum absolute deviations of TEC on the eclipse day do not show a simple and consistent relationship to the maximum solar obscuration.

Remote sensing ionospheric variations due to total solar eclipse, using GNSS observations

For years great interest has been taken in the effects of physical phenomena on ionosphere structure. A total solar eclipse was visible in North America on August 21 st, 2017. This event offered a great opportunity for remote sensing the ionospheric behavior under the eclipse condition. In this study we investigated the effects of total solar eclipse on variations of Total Electron Content(TEC), and consequently deviations on regional models of Vertical TEC(VTEC), as well as variations in ionospheric scintillation occurrence. Although variations of TEC due to total solar eclipse are studied thoroughly by many authors, but the effect of solar eclipse on ionospheric scintillation has never been considered before. Our study is based on measurements from a high-rate GPS network over North America on the day of eclipse, a day before and after its occurrence, on the other hand, GPS measurements from groundbased stations on similar days were used to model TEC on the day of event, and also one day before and after it. The results of this study demonstrate that solar eclipse reduced scintillation occurrence at the totality region up to 28 percent and TEC values showed a decrease of maximum 7 TECU. Considering TEC models, our study showed apparent variations in the regional models, which confirms previous studies on ionospheric responses to eclipse as well as theoretical assumptions.

Total Electron Content Diurnal and Seasonal Variations and Response to Solar Events at Koudougou Station in Burkina Faso

In this paper, we studied the seasonal behavior of the total electron content (TEC) during a part of solar cycle 24 ascending, maximum and decreasing phases at Koudougou station (Latitude: 12°15'09"N Longitude: 2°21'45"W). Response of TEC to solar recurrent events is presented. The highest values of the TEC in 2014, 2015 and 2016 were recorded on March and October, while in 2013 they were recorded on April and November, corresponding to equinox months. This observation shows that TEC values at the equinoxes are higher than those of solstices. Moreover, the monthly TEC varies in phase with the sunspots number showing a linear dependence of the TEC on solar activity. The ionospheric electron contents are generally very low both before noon and during the night, but quite high at noon and after noon. This pattern of TEC variation is due to the fluctuation of incident solar radiation on the Earth’s equatorial ionosphere. During quiet periods, the number of free electrons generated is lower than that generated during recurrent periods, which shows a positive contribution of recurrent activity to the level of the TEC. Investigations have also highlighted a winter anomaly and equinoctial asymmetry in TEC behavior at Koudougou station.

基于注意力机制LSTM的电离层TEC预测

电离层总电子含量(Total Electron Content,TEC)的监测与预报是空间环境研究的重要内容,对卫星通讯和导航定位等有重要意义.TEC值影响因素较多,很难确定精确物理模型来对其进行预测.本文设计了基于注意力机制的LSTM模型(Att-LSTM),采用过去24小时TEC观测数据对未来TEC进行预测.选择北半球东经100°上,每2.5°纬度选择一个位置,共计36个位置来验证本文提出模型的性能,并与主流的深度学习模型如DNN、RNN、LSTM进行对比实验.取得了如下成果:(1)在选定的36个地区未来2小时单点预测上,基于本文的Att-LSTM模型的TEC预测性能明显优于其他对比模型;(2)讨论了纬度对Att-LSTM预测未来2小时TEC值时性能的影响,发现在北纬0°到60°之间,Att-LSTM预测性能随着纬度的升高而略有降低,在北纬62.5°~87.5°之间,模型预测性能出现扰动,预测效果略差;(3)讨论了磁暴期和磁静期模型的预测性能,发现无论是磁暴期还是磁静期,本文模型预测性能均较好;(4)还讨论了对未来多时点预测效果,实验结果表明,本文所提出的模型对未来2、4个小时的预测拟合度R-Square均超过0.95,预测结果比较可靠,对未来6、8、10个小时预测拟合度最高为0.7934,预测拟合度R-Square下降迅速,预测结果不可靠.

基于GPS TEC的2022年1月15日汤加火山喷发激起的电离层行扰分析

2022年1月15日南太平洋汤加海底火山发生剧烈喷发,是近30年来最大规模的火山爆发,产生的强烈大气波动为开展火山喷发电离层扰动研究提供了难得的机会。本文利用GPS数据探测火山附近、新西兰、澳大利亚和中国地区的电离层扰动,从波形、频率、传播速度和时空分布等角度分析汤加火山喷发电离层行扰(TIDs)的特征,并利用电离层测高站、海平面监测站和大气压监测站的观测数据进一步验证TIDs的传播特征。研究结果发现,汤加火山喷发在其附近区域、新西兰、澳大利亚和中国地区引起了3类TIDs。在火山附近东、西、南、北方向上均探测到第一类TIDs, TIDs的传播速度为617~972 m/s,该类TIDs极有可能由火山喷发产生的声波引起。汤加火山喷发仅在火山附近东、西方向引起第二类TIDs,其传播速度分别为472 m/s和418 m/s,可能由声波传播过程中衍生的声重力波或者混合波引起,形成机理有待进一步研究。汤加火山喷发在新西兰、澳大利亚和中国地区引发了第三类TIDs,其传播速度为328~352 m/s,该类TIDs与Lamb波密切相关。

Tomographic Study of Ionospheric Effects Associated with a Solar Eclipse

This paper studies the ionospheric effects associated with the solar eclipse of October 24th, 1995 by means of Computerized Ionospheric Tomography (CIT). Since the reconstructed profiles from experimental CIT are sporadically located in time, a time domain interpolation method based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) technique is proposed and applied to extract the ionospheric effects. The effects can be extracted by comparison analysis between the interpolated CIT profiles of the eclipse days and that of the reference day that are time-aligned. A series of figs have been obtained showing the attenuation of photonization effect at low altitudes and the weakening of plasma’s transportation process at high altitudes, etc. The photonization effect recovered to normal level soon after the last contact. The maximum electron density diminishing is observed about 2 h after the eclipse maximum and the effects seem vanished in the hours followed. Analysis on vertical TEC’s latitudinal-temporal variation gives similar conclusions.

Storm-Time Ionospheric Disturbances Monitored by GPS Beacon Measurements

The Total Electron Content (TEC) during three great storms, from April to August 2000, was collected by means of a GPS receiver located in Jingzhou (30.4° N, 112.2° E). The time-latitude-dependent features of ionospheric storms are identified using TEC difference images based on the deviations of TEC during storm relative to quiet time. The responses of ionospheric TEC to magnetic storms were analyzed. The results show that: 1) In middle and low latitude, ionospheric storms effects are more apparent in local day time than at night: 2) Ionospheric storm effects are more dominant near the hump of the equatorial anomaly region than in other regions of TEC measurements; 3) The positive effects during the main phase of ionospheric storm may be caused by electric fields in low latitude; 4) During the recovery period of ionospheric storm, the negative phase of storm may be due to the perturbation of the neutral gas composition.

Evaluation of regional ionospheric grid model over China from dense GPS observations

The current global or regional ionospheric models have been established for monitoring the ionospheric variations. However, the spatial and temporal resolutions are not enough to describe total electron content（TEC） variations in small scales for China. In this paper, a regional ionospheric grid model（RIGM） with high spatial-temporal resolution（0.5 0.5 and 10-min interval） in China and surrounding areas is established based on spherical harmonics expansion from dense GPS measurements provided by Crustal Movement Observation Network of China（CMONOC） and the International GNSS Service（IGS）. The correlation coefficient between the estimated TEC from GPS and the ionosonde measurements is 0.97, and the root mean square（RMS） with respect to Center for Orbit Determination in Europe（CODE） Global Ionosphere Maps（GIMs） is 4.87 TECU. In addition, the impact of different spherical harmonics orders and degrees on TEC estimations are evaluated and the degree/order 6 is better. Moreover, effective ionospheric shell heights from300 km to 700 km are further assessed and the result indicates that 550 km is the most suitable for regional ionospheric modeling in China at solar maximum.

Analysis of Anomalous Enhancement in TEC and Electron Density in the China Region Prior to the 17 March 2015 Geomagnetic Storm Based on Ground and Space Observations

Total Electron Content(TEC)and electron density enhancement were observed on the day before 17 March 2015 great storm in the China Region.Observations from ground-and space-based instruments are used to investigate the temporal and spatial evolution of the pre-storm enhancement.TEC enhancement was observed from 24°N to 30°N after 10:00 UT at 105°E,110°E and 115°E longitudes on March 16.The maximum magnitude of TEC enhancement was more than 10 TECU and the maximal relative TEC enhancement exceeded 30%.Compared with geomagnetic quiet days,the electron density of Equatorial Ionization Anomaly(EIA)northern peak from Swarm A/C satellites on March 16 was larger and at higher latitudes.NmF2 enhanced during 11:30—21:00 UT at Shaoyang Station and increased by 200%at~16:00 UT.However,TEC and electron density enhancement were not accompanied by a significant change of hmF2.Most research has excluded some potential mechanisms as the main driving factors for storm-time density enhancements by establishing observational constraints.In this paper,we observed pre-storm enhancement in electron density at different altitudes and Equatorial Electrojet(EEJ)strength results derived from ground magnetometers observations suggest an enhanced eastward electric field from the E region probably played a significant role in this event.

Spectral investigation of traveling ionospheric disturbances:IONOLAB-FFT

Ionosphere is an important layer of atmosphere which is under constant forcing from both below due to gravitational, geomagnetic and seismic activities, and above due to solar wind and galactic radiation. Spatio-temporal variability of ionosphere is made up of two major components that can be listed as spatio-temporal trends and secondary variabilities that are due to disturbances in the geomagnetic field, gravitational waves and coupling of seismic activities into the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. Some of these second order variabilities generate wave-like oscillations in the ionosphere which propagate at a certain frequency, duration and velocity. These oscillations cause major problems for navigation and guidance systems that utilize GNSS （Global Navigation Satellite Systems）. In this study, the frequency and duration of wave-like oscillations are determined using a DFT （Discrete Fourier Transform） based algo- rithm over the STEC （slant total electron content） values estimated from single GPS （Global Positioning System） station. The performance of the developed method, namely IONOLAB-FFT, is first determined using synthetic oscillations with known frequencies and durations. Then, IONOLAB-FFr is applied to STEC data from various midlatitude GPS stations for detection of frequency and duration of both medium and large scale TIDs （traveling ionospheric disturbances）. It is observed that IONOLAB-FFr can estimate TIDs with more than 80% accuracy for the following cases： frequencies from 0.6 mHz to 2.4 mHz and durations longer than 10 min; frequencies from 0.15 mHz to 0.6 mHz and durations longer than 50 min; fre- quencies higher than 0.29 mHz and durations longer than 50 rain.

Testing of new ionospheric models along the meridian 110°E over the Northern Hemisphere

Despite the continuous improvement of the widely used empirical model international reference ionosphere(IRI),the recently appeared new models must be tested worldwide.Testing along the meridians has the advantage of dealing with the latitudinal dependent parameters.This paper uses new models of parameters foF2(critical frequency),TEC(total electron content),andτ(equivalent slab thickness of the ionosphere),which are of great importance for evaluating the effects of space weather.IRI-Plas,NNT2F2,and NTSM models were tested using data from 6 ionosondes located along the meridian 110°E in March 2012.It is shown that the IRI-Plas model provides the closest values to experiment with respect toτ,while the NTSM model provides a rather limited reflection of the latitude dependence.Analyses of foF2(NNT2F2)have shown that,the NNT2F2 model provides good conformity with experimental values in this area,but it is very dependent on the TEC processing method.The latitudinal dependences of foF2 obtained with TEC and polynomial dependenceτ(Appr)showed the presence of positive deviations from medians not only during disturbances but also quiet periods,longitudinally at the meridian.