Understanding and modeling individuals’behaviors during epidemics is crucial for effective epidemic control.However,existing research ignores the impact of users’irrationality on decision-making in the epidemic.Mean...Understanding and modeling individuals’behaviors during epidemics is crucial for effective epidemic control.However,existing research ignores the impact of users’irrationality on decision-making in the epidemic.Meanwhile,existing disease control methods often assume users’full compliance with measures like mandatory isolation,which does not align with the actual situation.To address these issues,this paper proposes a prospect theorybased framework to model users’decision-making process in epidemics and analyzes how irrationality affects individuals’behaviors and epidemic dynamics.According to the analysis results,irrationality tends to prompt conservative behaviors when the infection risk is low but encourages risk-seeking behaviors when the risk is high.Then,this paper proposes a behavior inducement algorithm to guide individuals’behaviors and control the spread of disease.Simulations and real user tests validate our analysis,and simulation results show that the proposed behavior inducement algorithm can effectively guide individuals’behavior.展开更多
If all prime closed geodesics on(S^n, F) with an irreversible Finsler metric F are irrationally elliptic,there exist either exactly 2 [(n+1)/2] or infinitely many distinct closed geodesics. As an application, we show ...If all prime closed geodesics on(S^n, F) with an irreversible Finsler metric F are irrationally elliptic,there exist either exactly 2 [(n+1)/2] or infinitely many distinct closed geodesics. As an application, we show the existence of three distinct closed geodesics on bumpy Finsler(S^3, F) if any prime closed geodesic has non-zero Morse index.展开更多
Dr.Strangelove or:How I learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb is a 1964 black comedy film with satire of arm races and nuclear scare by the director Stanley Kubrick.In the movie,irrational practice and ideologies...Dr.Strangelove or:How I learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb is a 1964 black comedy film with satire of arm races and nuclear scare by the director Stanley Kubrick.In the movie,irrational practice and ideologies manifest themselves as collective rationality and result in the destruction of the earth.In this thesis,the writer argues for those phenomenons with the feature of irrational collective rationality.They are of irrationality essence under the veil of rationality and deserve a social collective examination and recollection instead of the whole responsibility burdened on one single individual.There are three dimensions of irrational collective rationality:firstly,collective acquiescence and feeble voices of common public are misled by the mass media propaganda and suppressed by the privilege.Secondly,irrational collective practice causes the deviation from the reasonable motivations,usually because of distrust in each other,lack of team spirit,and absence of hearted cooperation.Thirdly,high-technology widely worshiped by modernists can be more of a hindrance than a help,separated discourse systems,out-of-control machines and irretrievable destruction,if used in an extreme way.They are flaws in national and international systems,foretelling the crossroad the collective group-human beings-making for.The writer advocates a notion reformation in the information procession,international cooperation and appropriate usage of incredible technology,considering human beings as a whole and standing at a new-height to be truly collective rational.展开更多
This paper summarizes research intended to develop a pedagogically friendly argument that establishes the fact that (x,ex ) is never a rational point in the plane. A point (x, y)∈R2 is rational if both x and y are ra...This paper summarizes research intended to develop a pedagogically friendly argument that establishes the fact that (x,ex ) is never a rational point in the plane. A point (x, y)∈R2 is rational if both x and y are rational. Applying a method based on Hurwitz polynomials, the research establishes simple irrationality proofs for nonzero rational powers of e and logarithms of positive rationals (excluding one).展开更多
On the basis of the analysis of past case studies of crashes or disasters, it has been clarified how cultural difference and cognitive biases become a trigger of serious crashes or disasters. Heuristic-based biases su...On the basis of the analysis of past case studies of crashes or disasters, it has been clarified how cultural difference and cognitive biases become a trigger of serious crashes or disasters. Heuristic-based biases such as confirmation bias, groupthink, and social loafing surely appeared in the process of crash or disaster breakout. Overconfidence-bases biases such as illusion of control, fallacy of plan, and optimistic bias are also ubiquitous in the route to a critical crash or disaster. Moreover, framing biases contribute to the distorted decision making, and eventually turn into the main cause of critical crash or disaster. In this way, as well as human factors or ergonomics approaches for designing man-machine systems, the prevention and the deletion of cognitive biases are indispensable for the preventing serious crashes or disasters from occurring. Until now, the distortion of decision making has not been discussed from the cultural differences of way of thinking. As well as a variety of cognitive biases, cultural difference in behavior is expected to be important for understanding the root causes of critical crash or disaster. We found that cultural difference distorted judgment through case studies of critical crashes or disasters. It was also demonstrated that considering cultural difference, as well as cognitive biases, is important to prevent irrational and biased decision making from occurring in safety management.展开更多
Bayesianism is a theory of probabilistic reasoning that attempts to capture the logic of confirming and disconfirming hypotheses. I first argue that Bayesianism reveals striking parallels between structures universall...Bayesianism is a theory of probabilistic reasoning that attempts to capture the logic of confirming and disconfirming hypotheses. I first argue that Bayesianism reveals striking parallels between structures universally held as paradigms of rational belief systems and structures typically considered clear examples of irrational belief systems. I next explain that the crucial difference between these two types of belief systems is found not inside the systems but outside them, in the dynamics, i.e., the attitudes, by which such systems are revised and maintained. The principal attitude that distinguishes these belief systems is ＂open-mindedness.＂ I conclude that rationality and irrationality are primarily properties of attitudes, and derivatively of persons （who exhibit such attitudes） and of beliefs （that are maintained by such attitudes）. It turns out then that, on the one hand, the Bayesian approach reveals important truths about the nature of rationality and irrationality, but, on the other hand, it is inadequate as a theory of rationality, since it leaves some aspects of rationality and irrationality unaccounted for. The Bayesian analysis on the basis of which these conclusions are reached arises from a careful examination of the Duhem problem, which is the problem of determining the disconfirmation impact on the plausibility of hypotheses collectively responsible for a false observational consequence.展开更多
It is generally believed that Edgar Allan Poe’s detective stories feature the ratiocination of C.Auguste Dupin,a detective Poe has created.However,this paper aims to demonstrate that there is actually an undercurrent...It is generally believed that Edgar Allan Poe’s detective stories feature the ratiocination of C.Auguste Dupin,a detective Poe has created.However,this paper aims to demonstrate that there is actually an undercurrent of irrationality in Poe’s detective stories.First of all,ratiocination,by definition,refers to inference,or deductive rules.It is also a type of the Enlightenment thinking that is closely related to reason or rationality.In detective fiction,it is the detective’s ability to analyze the clues and reason out the truth.It is true that Dupin’s ratiocination predominates in Poe’s detective stories.However,a closer look will reveal that Dupin’s ratiocinative processes in these stories are in fact blended with his speculation or imagination,namely,elements of irrationality.That is,beneath Dupin’s seemly seamless ratiocinative model is indeed an undercurrent of irrationality.To find out the origin of this undercurrent,we have to research the historical background of Poe’s detective stories.In the era of Poe’s detective stories,the Enlightenment is the dominant thinking,while there is also a resistant force developing at the same time,Gothicism.The Enlightenment puts a premium on reason;in contrast,Gothicism is often equated with irrationality,whose manifestations include horror or imagination.Poe,who is deemed as the“romantic ironist”,is a writer who is uniquely capable of making two statements with opposite meanings simultaneously.So as he indicates that ratiocination will lead to the truth in his detective stories,he may as well implies that imagination or speculation will also fulfill the same purpose.In addition,Poe excels in absorbing contraries;thus,he infuses both rationality and irrationality into his detective stories.For Poe,the latter has to be subdued by the former.As a consequence,the former plays a pivotal role in Poe’s detective stories,while the latter ends up as an undercurrent.展开更多
文摘Understanding and modeling individuals’behaviors during epidemics is crucial for effective epidemic control.However,existing research ignores the impact of users’irrationality on decision-making in the epidemic.Meanwhile,existing disease control methods often assume users’full compliance with measures like mandatory isolation,which does not align with the actual situation.To address these issues,this paper proposes a prospect theorybased framework to model users’decision-making process in epidemics and analyzes how irrationality affects individuals’behaviors and epidemic dynamics.According to the analysis results,irrationality tends to prompt conservative behaviors when the infection risk is low but encourages risk-seeking behaviors when the risk is high.Then,this paper proposes a behavior inducement algorithm to guide individuals’behaviors and control the spread of disease.Simulations and real user tests validate our analysis,and simulation results show that the proposed behavior inducement algorithm can effectively guide individuals’behavior.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11131004, 11471169 and 11401555)the Key Laboratory of Pure Mathematics and Combinatorics of Ministry of Education of China and Nankai University, China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No. 2014T70589)Chinese Universities Scientific Fund (Grant No. WK0010000037)
文摘If all prime closed geodesics on(S^n, F) with an irreversible Finsler metric F are irrationally elliptic,there exist either exactly 2 [(n+1)/2] or infinitely many distinct closed geodesics. As an application, we show the existence of three distinct closed geodesics on bumpy Finsler(S^3, F) if any prime closed geodesic has non-zero Morse index.
文摘Dr.Strangelove or:How I learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb is a 1964 black comedy film with satire of arm races and nuclear scare by the director Stanley Kubrick.In the movie,irrational practice and ideologies manifest themselves as collective rationality and result in the destruction of the earth.In this thesis,the writer argues for those phenomenons with the feature of irrational collective rationality.They are of irrationality essence under the veil of rationality and deserve a social collective examination and recollection instead of the whole responsibility burdened on one single individual.There are three dimensions of irrational collective rationality:firstly,collective acquiescence and feeble voices of common public are misled by the mass media propaganda and suppressed by the privilege.Secondly,irrational collective practice causes the deviation from the reasonable motivations,usually because of distrust in each other,lack of team spirit,and absence of hearted cooperation.Thirdly,high-technology widely worshiped by modernists can be more of a hindrance than a help,separated discourse systems,out-of-control machines and irretrievable destruction,if used in an extreme way.They are flaws in national and international systems,foretelling the crossroad the collective group-human beings-making for.The writer advocates a notion reformation in the information procession,international cooperation and appropriate usage of incredible technology,considering human beings as a whole and standing at a new-height to be truly collective rational.
文摘This paper summarizes research intended to develop a pedagogically friendly argument that establishes the fact that (x,ex ) is never a rational point in the plane. A point (x, y)∈R2 is rational if both x and y are rational. Applying a method based on Hurwitz polynomials, the research establishes simple irrationality proofs for nonzero rational powers of e and logarithms of positive rationals (excluding one).
文摘On the basis of the analysis of past case studies of crashes or disasters, it has been clarified how cultural difference and cognitive biases become a trigger of serious crashes or disasters. Heuristic-based biases such as confirmation bias, groupthink, and social loafing surely appeared in the process of crash or disaster breakout. Overconfidence-bases biases such as illusion of control, fallacy of plan, and optimistic bias are also ubiquitous in the route to a critical crash or disaster. Moreover, framing biases contribute to the distorted decision making, and eventually turn into the main cause of critical crash or disaster. In this way, as well as human factors or ergonomics approaches for designing man-machine systems, the prevention and the deletion of cognitive biases are indispensable for the preventing serious crashes or disasters from occurring. Until now, the distortion of decision making has not been discussed from the cultural differences of way of thinking. As well as a variety of cognitive biases, cultural difference in behavior is expected to be important for understanding the root causes of critical crash or disaster. We found that cultural difference distorted judgment through case studies of critical crashes or disasters. It was also demonstrated that considering cultural difference, as well as cognitive biases, is important to prevent irrational and biased decision making from occurring in safety management.
文摘Bayesianism is a theory of probabilistic reasoning that attempts to capture the logic of confirming and disconfirming hypotheses. I first argue that Bayesianism reveals striking parallels between structures universally held as paradigms of rational belief systems and structures typically considered clear examples of irrational belief systems. I next explain that the crucial difference between these two types of belief systems is found not inside the systems but outside them, in the dynamics, i.e., the attitudes, by which such systems are revised and maintained. The principal attitude that distinguishes these belief systems is ＂open-mindedness.＂ I conclude that rationality and irrationality are primarily properties of attitudes, and derivatively of persons （who exhibit such attitudes） and of beliefs （that are maintained by such attitudes）. It turns out then that, on the one hand, the Bayesian approach reveals important truths about the nature of rationality and irrationality, but, on the other hand, it is inadequate as a theory of rationality, since it leaves some aspects of rationality and irrationality unaccounted for. The Bayesian analysis on the basis of which these conclusions are reached arises from a careful examination of the Duhem problem, which is the problem of determining the disconfirmation impact on the plausibility of hypotheses collectively responsible for a false observational consequence.
基金This paper is adapted from my Ph.D.dissertation,“Say the unsaid,repair the fractures-On the narrative ruptures in Edgar Allan Poe’s detective stories”.Here,in addition to thanking the anonymous reviewer for his or her opinions on this paper,I would like to express my deepest appreciation for my Ph.D.dissertation advisors,Professor Frank W.Stevenson,and Professor Eva Yin-I Chen.And I must also be thankful to Professor Chin-Yuan Hu,Professor Yi Ping Liang,and Professor Brian D.Phillips,all three of whom participated in my oral defenses and proofread my Ph.D.dissertation.
文摘It is generally believed that Edgar Allan Poe’s detective stories feature the ratiocination of C.Auguste Dupin,a detective Poe has created.However,this paper aims to demonstrate that there is actually an undercurrent of irrationality in Poe’s detective stories.First of all,ratiocination,by definition,refers to inference,or deductive rules.It is also a type of the Enlightenment thinking that is closely related to reason or rationality.In detective fiction,it is the detective’s ability to analyze the clues and reason out the truth.It is true that Dupin’s ratiocination predominates in Poe’s detective stories.However,a closer look will reveal that Dupin’s ratiocinative processes in these stories are in fact blended with his speculation or imagination,namely,elements of irrationality.That is,beneath Dupin’s seemly seamless ratiocinative model is indeed an undercurrent of irrationality.To find out the origin of this undercurrent,we have to research the historical background of Poe’s detective stories.In the era of Poe’s detective stories,the Enlightenment is the dominant thinking,while there is also a resistant force developing at the same time,Gothicism.The Enlightenment puts a premium on reason;in contrast,Gothicism is often equated with irrationality,whose manifestations include horror or imagination.Poe,who is deemed as the“romantic ironist”,is a writer who is uniquely capable of making two statements with opposite meanings simultaneously.So as he indicates that ratiocination will lead to the truth in his detective stories,he may as well implies that imagination or speculation will also fulfill the same purpose.In addition,Poe excels in absorbing contraries;thus,he infuses both rationality and irrationality into his detective stories.For Poe,the latter has to be subdued by the former.As a consequence,the former plays a pivotal role in Poe’s detective stories,while the latter ends up as an undercurrent.
