Improved cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation of mixed additive and multiplicative random error model

To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a derivative-free cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation.We embed the Powell method,which uses conjugate direction acceleration and does not need to derive the objective function,into the original cat swarm optimization to accelerate its convergence speed and search accuracy.We use the ordinary least squares,weighted least squares,original cat swarm optimization,particle swarm algorithm and improved cat swarm optimization to estimate the parameters of the straight-line fitting MAM model with lower nonlinearity and the DEM MAM model with higher nonlinearity,respectively.The experimental results show that the improved cat swarm optimization has faster convergence speed,higher search accuracy,and better stability than the original cat swarm optimization and the particle swarm algorithm.At the same time,the improved cat swarm optimization can obtain results consistent with the weighted least squares method based on the objective function only while avoiding multiple complex weight array derivations.The method in this paper provides a new idea for theoretical research on parameter estimation of MAM error models.

Differences in parameter estimates derived from various methods for the ORYZA(v3) Model

Parameter estimation is always a difficult issue for crop model users, and inaccurate parameter values will result in deceptive model predictions. Parameter values may vary with different inversion methods due to equifinality and differences in the estimating processes. Therefore, it is of great importance to evaluate the factors which may influence parameter estimates and to make a comparison of the current widely-used methods. In this study, three popular frequentist methods(SCE-UA, GA and PEST) and two Bayesian-based methods(GLUE and MCMC-AM) were applied to estimate nine cultivar parameters using the ORYZA(v3) Model. The results showed that there were substantial differences between the parameter estimates derived by the different methods, and they had strong effects on model predictions. The parameter estimates given by the frequentist methods were obviously sensitive to initial values, and the extent of the sensitivity varied with algorithms and objective functions. Among the frequentist methods, the SCE-UA was recommended due to the balance between stable convergence and high efficiency. All the parameter estimates remarkably improved the goodness of model-fit, and the parameter estimates derived from the Bayesian-based methods had relatively worse performance compared to the frequentist methods. In particular, the parameter estimates with the highest probability density of posterior distributions derived from the MCMC-AM method(MCMC_P_(max)) led to results equivalent to those derived from the frequentist methods, and even better in some situations. Additionally, model accuracy was greatly influenced by the values of phenology parameters in validation.

Singularity of Some Software Reliability Models and Parameter Estimation Method

According to the principle, “The failure data is the basis of software reliability analysis”, we built a software reliability expert system (SRES) by adopting the artificial intelligence technology. By reasoning out the conclusion from the fitting results of failure data of a software project, the SRES can recommend users “the most suitable model” as a software reliability measurement model. We believe that the SRES can overcome the inconsistency in applications of software reliability models well. We report investigation results of singularity and parameter estimation methods of experimental models in SRES.

PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF MULTI-CONSTITUENT WATER QUALITY MODEL FOR THE LIANGXI RIVER BY MARQUARDT METHOD

A multi-constituent water quality model is presented,Which relates carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD),amonia (NH3-N), nitrite(NO2-N), nitrate(NO3-N) and dissolvedoxygen(DO). The parameters are solved by Marquardt Method (i. e.,Dampled Least Square Method) while initial values inoptimization are produced by Monte-Carlo Method. The Potential ofthe method as a parameter estimation aid is demonstrated for theapplication to the Liangyi Rver, JiangSu Province of China and by aspecial comparison with Gauss Method.

Evaluation of Some Weibull Parameter Estimation Methods for Characterizing Stem Diameter Distribution in a Tropical Mixed Forest of Southern Nigeria

Stem diameter distribution information is useful in forest management planning. Weibull function is flexible, and has been used in characterising diameter distributions, especially in single-species planted stands, the world over. We evaluated some Weibull parameter estimation methods for stem diameter characterisation in （Oban） multi-species Forest in southern Nigeria. Four study sites （Aking, Ekang, Erokut and Ekuri） were selected. Four 2 km-long transects situated at 600 m apart were laid in each location. Five 50m x 50m plots were alternately laid along each transect at 400 m apart （20 plots/location） using systematic sampling technique. Tree growth variables： diameter at breast height （Dbh）, diameters at the base, middle and merchantable limit, total height, merchantable height, stem straightness, crown length and crown diameter were measured on all trees 〉 10 cm to compute model response variables such as mean diameters, basal area and stem volume. Weibull parameters estimation methods used were： moment-based, percentile-based, hybrid and maximum-likelihood （ML）. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, regression models and ANOVA at α0.05. Percentile-based method was the best for Weibull [location （a）, scale （b） and shape （c）] parameters estimations with mLogL = 116.66±21.89, while hybrid method was least-suitable （mLogL = 690.14±128.81） for Weibull parameters estimations. Quadratic mean diameter （Dq） was the only suitable predictor of Weibull parameters in Oban Forest.

Development and Application of a Modified Genetic Algorithm for Estimating Parameters in GMA Models

In this work we introduce a modified version of the simple genetic algorithm (MGA) and will show the results of its application to two GMA power law models (a general theoretical branched pathway system and a mathematical model of the amplification and responsiveness of the JAK2/STAT5 pathway representing an actual, experimentally studied system). The two case studies serve to illustrate the utility and potentialities of the MGA method for concerning parameter estimation in complex models of biological significance. The analysis of the results obtained from the application of the MGA algorithm allows an evaluation of the potentialities and shortcomings of the proposed algorithm when compared with other parameter estimation algorithm such as the simple genetic algorithm (SGA) and the simulated annealing (SA). MGA shows better performance in both studied cases than SGA and SA, either in the presence or absence of noise. It is suggested that these advantages are due to the fact that the objective function definition in the MGA could include the experimental error as a weight factor, thus minimizing the distance between the data and the predicted value. Actually, MGA is slightly slower that the SGA and the SA, but this limitation is compensated by its greater efficiency in finding objective values closer to the global optimum. Finally, MGA can lead to an early local optimum, but this shortcoming may be prevented by providing a great population diversity through the insertion of different selection processes.

A Mo LC+Mo M-based G^0 distribution parameter estimation method with application to synthetic aperture radar target detection

The accuracy of background clutter model is a key factor which determines the performance of a constant false alarm rate(CFAR) target detection method. G0 distribution is one of the optimal statistic models in the synthetic aperture radar(SAR) image background clutter modeling and can accurately model various complex background clutters in the SAR images. But the application of the distribution is greatly limited by its disadvantages that the parameter estimation is complex and the local detection threshold is difficult to be obtained. In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, an synthetic aperture radar CFAR target detection method using the logarithmic cumulant(Mo LC) + method of moment(Mo M)-based G0 distribution clutter model is proposed. In the method, G0 distribution is used for modeling the background clutters, a new Mo LC+Mo M-based parameter estimation method coupled with a fast iterative algorithm is used for estimating the parameters of G0 distribution and an exquisite dichotomy method is used for obtaining the local detection threshold of CFAR detection, which greatly improves the computational efficiency, detection performance and environmental adaptability of CFAR detection. Experimental results show that the proposed SAR CFAR target detection method has good target detection performance in various complex background clutter environments.

Aircraft parameter estimation using a stacked long short-term memory network and Levenberg-Marquardt method

To effectively estimate the unknown aerodynamic parameters from the aircraft’s flight data,this paper proposes a novel aerodynamic parameter estimation method incorporating a stacked Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)network model and the Levenberg-Marquardt(LM)method.The stacked LSTM network model was designed to realize the aircraft dynamics modeling by utilizing a frame of nonlinear functional mapping based entirely on the measured input-output data of the aircraft system without requiring explicit postulation of the dynamics.The LM method combines the already-trained LSTM network model to optimize the unknown aerodynamic parameters.The proposed method is applied by using the real flight data,generated by ATTAS aircraft and a bio-inspired morphing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV).The investigation reveals that for the two different flight data,the designed stacked LSTM network structure can maintain the efficacy of the network prediction capability only by appropriately adjusting the dropout rates of its hidden layers without changing other network parameters(i.e.,the initial weights,initial biases,number of hidden cells,time-steps,learning rate,and number of training iterations).Besides,the proposed method’s effectiveness and potential are demonstrated by comparing the estimated results of the ATTAS aircraft or the bio-inspired morphing UAV with the corresponding reference values or wind-tunnel results.

Statistical Analysis of Fuzzy Linear Regression Model Based on Centroid Method

This paper transforms fuzzy number into clear number using the centroid method, thus we can research the traditional linear regression model which is transformed from the fuzzy linear regression model. The model’s input and output are fuzzy numbers, and the regression coefficients are clear numbers. This paper considers the parameter estimation and impact analysis based on data deletion. Through the study of example and comparison with other models, it can be concluded that the model in this paper is applied easily and better.

Robust Smooth Time-varying Exponential Stabilization of Dynamic Nonholonomic Mobile Cart with Parameter Uncertainties

For regulating the dynamic nonholonomic mobile cart with parameter uncertainties, a time-varying robust control law is derived to yield globally exponential convergence of cart's position and orientation to the desired set point. The controller design relies on converting the cart's dynamics to an advantageous form, and the robust linear feedback control laws steer the cart's position and orientation errors to zero exponentially. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed control law.

液压机械臂的接触作业控制方法进展

【目的】液压机械臂具备负载能力强、响应速度快、无极调速范围大、受辐射电磁干扰小等特点,被广泛应用于隧道掘进装备、桥梁建设装备等交通基础设施建设领域。文章旨在总结液压机械臂的接触作业控制方法,介绍力与位置精确协调控制方法,最后对其未来的研究方向提出展望。【方法】在实际工程应用中,液压机械臂常常要与外界环境进行接触,而其接触作业控制涉及与位置的精确协调控制,而力与位置的精确控制需要精准的动力学模型和末端力的精准估计。【结果】国内外学者针对力与位置精确协调控制进行深入研究,在实现液压机械臂稳定、准确、安全接触作业取得了一些重要的研究成果。【结论】针对这些成果,阐述了液压机械臂在动力学建模、动力学参数辨识、末端接触力估计方法和柔顺控制等方面的研究内容,并且对下一步的研究提出了建议和展望。

灰色GM(1,1)档案模型参数估计优化算法

针对最小二乘法在处理总体特征不明显的数据时效果欠佳的问题,提出了一种适用于“贫信息,小样本”的预测方法,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型对数据序列进行归纳、总结和提炼,构建相应的预测模型。新的参数估算方法将初始误差的绝对值和最小化,将参数估算转化为目标规划问题,利用目标规划法,在不依赖于数据整体特性的前提下,有效降低异常值,简化计算过程,提高预测精度。

A Gradient Descent Method for Estimating the Markov Chain Choice Model

In this paper,we propose a gradient descent method to estimate the parameters in a Markov chain choice model.Particularly,we derive closed-form formula for the gradient of the log-likelihood function and show the convergence of the algorithm.Numerical experiments verify the efficiency of our approach by comparing with the expectation-maximization algorithm.We show that the similar result can be extended to a more general case that one does not have observation of the no-purchase data.

Aerodynamic Modeling and Parameter Estimation from QAR Data of an Airplane Approaching a High-altitude Airport

Aerodynamic modeling and parameter estimation from quick accesses recorder （QAR） data is an important technical way to analyze the effects of highland weather conditions upon aerodynamic characteristics of airplane. It is also an essential content of flight accident analysis. The related techniques are developed in the present paper, including the geometric method for angle of attack and sideslip angle estimation, the extended Kalman filter associated with modified Bryson-Frazier smoother （EKF-MBF） method for aerodynamic coefficient identification, the radial basis function （RBF） neural network method for aerodynamic mod- eling, and the Delta method for stability/control derivative estimation. As an application example, the QAR data of a civil air- plane approaching a high-altitude airport are processed and the aerodynamic coefficient and derivative estimates are obtained. The estimation results are reasonable, which shows that the developed techniques are feasible. The causes for the distribution of aerodynamic derivative estimates are analyzed. Accordingly, several measures to improve estimation accuracy are put forward.

Singularity of Software Reliability Models LVLM and LVQM

According to the principle, “The failure data is the basis of software reliabilityanalysis”, we built a software reliability expert system (SRES) by adopting the artificialtechnology. By reasoning out the conclusion from the fitting results of failure data of asoftware project, the SRES can recommend users “the most suitable model” as a softwarereliability measurement model. We believe that the SRES can overcome the inconsistency inapplications of software reliability models well. We report investigation results of singularity and parameter estimation methods of models, LVLM and LVQM.

Non-iterative parameter estimation of the 2R-1C model suitable for low-cost embedded hardware

Parameter estimation of the 2 R-1 C model is usually performed using iterative methods that require high-performance processing units.Consequently,there is a strong motivation to develop less time-consuming and more power-efficient parameter estimation methods.Such low-complexity algorithms would be suitable for implementation in portable microcontroller-based devices.In this study,we propose the quadratic interpolation non-iterative parameter estimation(QINIPE)method,based on quadratic interpolation of the imaginary part of the measured impedance,which enables more accurate estimation of the characteristic frequency.The 2 R-1 C model parameters are subsequently calculated from the real and imaginary parts of the measured impedance using a set of closed-form expressions.Comparative analysis conducted on the impedance data of the 2 R-1 C model obtained in both simulation and measurements shows that the proposed QINIPE method reduces the number of required measurement points by 80%in comparison with our previously reported non-iterative parameter estimation(NIPE)method,while keeping the relative estimation error to less than 1%for all estimated parameters.Both non-iterative methods are implemented on a microcontroller-based device;the estimation accuracy,RAM,flash memory usage,and execution time are monitored.Experiments show that the QINIPE method slightly increases the execution time by 0.576 ms(about 6.7%),and requires 24%(1.2 KB)more flash memory and just 2.4%(32 bytes)more RAM in comparison to the NIPE method.However,the impedance root mean square errors(RMSEs)of the QINIPE method are decreased to 42.8%(for the real part)and 64.5%(for the imaginary part)of the corresponding RMSEs obtained using the NIPE method.Moreover,we compared the QINIPE and the complex nonlinear least squares(CNLS)estimation of the 2 R-1 C model parameters.The results obtained show that although the estimation accuracy of the QINIPE is somewhat lower than the estimation accuracy of the CNLS,it is still satisfactory for many practical purposes and its execution time reduces to1/45–1/30.

Optimization Model of Oil-Volume Marking with Tilted Oil Tank

In this paper, the relationship model between the oil volume and the vertically tilting parameter (α), the horizontally tilting parameter (β) and the displayed height of oil (h*) is first constructed with the tilted oil tank. Then, based on the data of the oil output volume at different time of day, an optimization model of oil-volume marking with tilted oil tank is established. Finally, parameters α = 2.2° and β = 3.05° are estimated by using nonlinear least squares method and the marking number of the tank-volume meter is given.

基于修正辅助变量法的船舶操纵响应模型辨识

为了解决有色噪声干扰对船舶操纵响应模型参数的有偏估计问题,本文提出一种递推修正辅助变量最小二乘法对船舶操纵二阶响应模型进行参数辨识。算法在递推辅助变量最小二乘法的基础上,针对辨识模型引入动态滤波模型改善有色噪声的统计特性,使得系统被估参数值在有色噪声干扰的情况下也能无偏趋近于参数真值。为了验证所提算法的有效性,在实船Z形试验数据的基础上,将递推修正辅助变量最小二乘法、递推辅助变量最小二乘法、增广最小二乘法和标准最小二乘法所辨识得到的模型的进行比较。结果表明:递推修正辅助变量最小二乘法的辨识模型相比其余三者的辨识模型与船舶实际航向角的拟合精度和泛化精度更高,对应的均方根拟合误差和均方根泛化误差分别可达到1°和2°以下,最大绝对误差分别在3°和4°以下。

Parameter Identification for Static Var Compensator Model Using Sensitivity Analysis and Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm

A parameter estimation method based on an improved Whale Optimization Algorithm is proposed in this paper to identify the parameters of a static var compensator(SVC)model.First,a mathematical model of SVC is established.Then,the reverse learning strategy and Levy flight disturbance strategy are introduced to improve the whale optimization algorithm,and the improved whale optimization algorithm is applied to the parameter identification of the static var compensator model.Finally,a stepwise identification method,by analyzing the local sensitivities of parameters,is proposed which solves the problem of low accuracy caused by multi-parameter identification.This method provides a new estimation strategy for accurately identifying the parameters of the static var compensator model.Estimation results show that the parameter estimation method can be an effective tool to solve the problem of parameter identification for the SVC model.

A primer on stable parameter estimation and forecasting in epidemiology by a problem-oriented regularized least squares algorithm

Public health officials are increasingly recognizing the need to develop disease-forecasting systems to respond to epidemic and pandemic outbreaks.For instance,simple epidemic models relying on a small number of parameters can play an important role in characterizing epidemic growth and generating short-term epidemic forecasts.In the absence of reliable information about transmission mechanisms of emerging infectious diseases,phenomenological models are useful to characterize epidemic growth patterns without the need to explicitly model transmission mechanisms and the natural history of the disease.In this article,our goal is to discuss and illustrate the role of regularization methods for estimating parameters and generating disease forecasts using the generalized Richards model in the context of the 2014e15 Ebola epidemic in West Africa.