Modelling Key Population Attrition in the HIV and AIDS Programme in Kenya Using Random Survival Forests with Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique-Nominal Continuous

HIV and AIDS has continued to be a major public health concern, and hence one of the epidemics that the world resolved to end by 2030 as highlighted in sustainable development goals (SDGs). A colossal amount of effort has been taken to reduce new HIV infections, but there are still a significant number of new infections reported. HIV prevalence is more skewed towards the key population who include female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID). The study design was retrospective and focused on key population enrolled in a comprehensive HIV and AIDS programme by the Kenya Red Cross Society from July 2019 to June 2021. Individuals who were either lost to follow up, defaulted (dropped out, transferred out, or relocated) or died were classified as attrition;while those who were active and alive by the end of the study were classified as retention. The study used density analysis to determine the spatial differences of key population attrition in the 19 targeted counties, and used Kilifi county as an example to map attrition cases in smaller administrative areas (sub-county level). The study used synthetic minority oversampling technique-nominal continuous (SMOTE-NC) to balance the datasets since the cases of attrition were much less than retention. The random survival forests model was then fitted to the balanced dataset. The model correctly identified attrition cases using the predicted ensemble mortality and their survival time using the estimated Kaplan-Meier survival function. The predictive performance of the model was strong and way better than random chance with concordance indices greater than 0.75.

Fundamental issues and solutions in the design of China's ETS pilots:Allowance allocation,price mechanism and state-owned key enterprises

This paper analyzes the three main fundamental issues in the design of China's ETS pilots,including allowance allocation,price mechanism and state-owned key enterprises,and proposed suggested solutions.For the issue of allowance allocation,we suggest that the gradual hybrid mode could be applied at the beginning,which starts with mainly free allocation and then increases auction ratio gradually.And grandfathering is a suitable method of free allocation.For the issue of price mechanism,we suggest a price floating zone with open market operation to reduce the uncertainty of prices.For the issue of state-owned key enterprises,we suggest a good coordination with SASAC,defining the state-owned property right and supervision right when state-owned key enterprises are involved into the carbon market,and the local government can set rules of allocation and transaction to limit their potential market power.

Discussion on the relationship between Construction of Forest Towns and Reform & Development of State-owned Forest Farms

In recent years, China's social economy has continued to develop. While paying attention to the pursuit of the economy, people are paying more and more attention to the pursuit of quality of life. China has vast territory and abundant resources, forest resources are particularly rich, in order to make full use of forest resources and regulate the use and protection of forests, China has promoted the development of forestry by deepening the construction and reform of state-owned forest farms, and using forest resources to obtain benefits to meet people's living needs. This paper explores the necessity and advantages of building a forest town by analyzing the reform and development situation of state-owned forest farms.

A study on state-owned forest area stakeholders' behavior

The development of state-owned forest area plays a very important role in the development of Chinese forest industry, and even in the construction of national economy. As the backbone of Chinese forestry development, it contributes to Chinese economic development, ecological environment protection and social progress. How to balance all stakeholders' interest and behaviors remains as one of the focuses in the study of sustainable development of forest areas. On this basis, researches were carried out and described in the paper. Firstly, the paper goes through the concept and scope of state-owned forest area in China; Secondly, it defines the stakeholders of state-owned forest area, and discusses over the problems in stakeholders' behaviors from the aspect of responsibility, rights and interests; and Finally, it designs the stakeholders' behaviors on the basis of existing problems and provides constructive suggestions on deeper reform of state-owned forest areas.

Variation in Stomatal Characteristics of <i>Bursera simaruba</i>(L.) Sarg., a Dominant Tree Species of Tropical Hardwood Hammock Forest across a Habitat Gradient in the Florida Keys

Tree species in coastal forests may exhibit specialization or plasticity in coping with drought through changes in their stomatal morphology or activity, allowing for a balance between gas exchange and water loss in a periodically stressful environment. To examine these responses, we sought to answer two primary research questions: a) how is variation in B. simaruba’s stomatal traits partitioned across hierarchical levels, i.e., site, tree, and leaf;and b) is variation in stomatal traits an integrated response to physiological stress expressed across the habitat gradient of Florida Keys forests? At eight sites distributed throughout the Keys, five leaves were collected from three mature trees for stomatal analysis. Leaf carbon stable isotope ratio (δ13C) was determined to infer the changes in water use efficiency caused by physiological stress experienced by each tree. The results showed that substantial proportions of the total variance in three traits (stomatal density, stomatal size, and δ13C) were observed at all levels, suggesting that processes operating at each scale are important in determining trait values. A significant negative correlation between stomatal density and size across scales was observed. Path model analysis showed that environmental variables, distance to ground water and ground water salinity, affect leaf δ13C indirectly, via its effects on stomatal traits, not directly to leaf δ13C. Therefore, the combination of small and densely distributed stomata seems to represent a strategy that allows B. simaruba to conserve water under conditions of physiological drought induced by either higher ground water salinity or flooding stress at very low elevation.

Tree-based ecosystem services supply and multifunctionality of church forests and their agricultural matrix near Lake Tana,Ethiopia

Ecosystem services(ES)are the connection between nature and society,and are essential for the well-being of local communities that depend on them.In Ethiopia,church forests and the surrounding agricultural matrix supply numerous ES.However,the ES delivered by both land use types have not yet been assessed simultaneously.Here we surveyed both church forests and their agricultural matrices,aiming to quantify,compare and unravel the drivers underlying tree-based ES supply,density and multifunctionality.We found that almost all church forests and half of the agricultural matrices provided high ES densities.ES multifunctionality was higher in the agricultural matrices,suggesting that people deliberately conserve or plant multifunctional tree species.Furthermore,the supply of all categories of ES was positively correlated with church forest age(p-value<0.001)in the agricultural matrix,while the extent of church forest was positively correlated with the density of all categories ecosystem services score in the church forests(p-value<0.001).Our results can be used to prioritize conservation efforts at sites that provide high levels of ES supply,ES density and ES multifunctionality,and to prioritize restoration efforts at sites with low levels thereof.

Forest Carbon Storage and Tree Carbon Pool Dynamics under Natural Forest Protection Program in Northeastern China

The Natural Forest Protection(NFP) program is one of the Six Key Forestry Projects which were adopted by the Chinese Government since the 1980s to address important natural issues in China. It advanced to protecting and restoring the structures and functions of the natural forests through sustainable forest management. However, the role of forest carbon storage and tree carbon pool dynamics since the adoption of the NFP remains unknown. To address this knowledge gap, this study calculated forest carbon storage(tree, understory, forest floor and soil) in the forest region of northeastern(NE) China based on National Forest Inventory databases and field investigated databases. For tree biomass, this study utilized an improved method for biomass estimation that converts timber volume to total forest biomass; while for understory, forest floor and soil carbon storage, this study utilized forest type-specific mean carbon densities multiplied by their areas in the region. Results showed that the tree carbon pool under the NFP in NE China functioned as a carbon sink from 1998 to 2008, with an increase of 6.3 Tg C/yr, which was mainly sequestrated by natural forests(5.1 Tg C/yr). At the same time, plantations also acted as a carbon sink, reflecting an increase of 1.2 Tg C/yr. In 2008, total carbon storage in forests covered by the NFP in NE China was 4603.8 Tg C, of which 4393.3 Tg C was stored in natural forests and 210.5 Tg C in planted forests. Soil was the largest carbon storage component, contributing 69.5%–77.8% of total carbon storage; followed by tree and forest floor, accounting for 16.3%–23.0% and 5.0%–6.5% of total carbon storage, respectively. Understory carbon pool ranged from 1.9 to 42.7 Tg C, accounting for only 0.9% of total carbon storage.

A Geographic Information Systems approach for classifying and mapping forest management category in Baihe Forestry Bureau, Northeast China

This paper demonstrates a Geographic Information Systems （GIS） procedure of classifying and mapping forest management category in Baihe Forestry Burea, Jilin Province, China. Within the study area, Baihe Forestry Bureau land was classified into a two-hierarchy system. The top-level class included the non-forest and forest. Over 96% of land area is forest in the study area, which was further divided into key ecological service forest （KES）, general ecological service forest （GES）, and commodity forest （COM）. COM covered 45.0% of the total land area and was the major forest management type in Baihe Forest Bureau. KES and GES accounted for 21.2% and 29.9% of the total land area, respectively. The forest management zones designed with GIS in this study were then compared with the forest management zones established using the hand draw by the local agency. There were obvious differences between the two products. It suggested that the differences had some to do with the data sources, basic unit and mapping procedures. It also suggested that the GIS method was a useful tool in integrating forest inventory data and other data for classifying and mapping forest zones to meet the needs of the classified forest management system.

Revelation from Management System Reform of State-owned Forests of Hessen State in Germany

The paper analyzes the management system reforms of state-owned forest in Hessen State of Germany based on the forestry situation, and draws conclusions which can be used for reference in management system reform of state-owned forest in China. The results are as follows: stepwise reform is the mode, ecology-centeredness is the principle, transparent property right is the precondition, detached function of government and forest industry groups is the key, and integrated law and regulation system is the guarantee.

Identification of the key factors affecting Chinese carbon intensity and their historical trends using random forest algorithm

The Chinese government ratified the Paris Climate Agreement in 2016.Accordingly,China aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product(carbon intensity)to 60%–65%of 2005 levels by 2030.However,since numerous factors influence carbon intensity in China,it is critical to assess their relative importance to determine the most important factors.As traditional methods are inadequate for identifying key factors from a range of factors acting in concert,machine learning was applied in this study.Specifically,random forest algorithm,which is based on decision tree theory,was employed because it is insensitive to multicollinearity,is robust to missing and unbalanced data,and provides reasonable predictive results.We identified the key factors affecting carbon intensity in China using random forest algorithm and analyzed the evolution in the key factors from 1980 to 2017.The dominant factors affecting carbon intensity in China from 1980 to 1991 included the scale and proportion of energy-intensive industry,the proportion of fossil fuel-based energy,and technological progress.The Chinese economy developed rapidly between 1992 and 2007;during this time,the effects of the proportion of service industry,price of fossil fuel,and traditional residential consumption on carbon intensity increased.Subsequently,the Chinese economy entered a period of structural adjustment after the 2008 global financial crisis;during this period,reductions in emissions and the availability of new energy types began to have effects on carbon intensity,and the importance of residential consumption increased.The results suggest that optimizing the energy and industrial structures,promoting technological advancement,increasing green consumption,and reducing emissions are keys to decreasing carbon intensity within China in the future.These approaches will help achieve the goal of reducing carbon intensity to 60%–65%of the 2005 level by 2030.

Species Account of Anura ns from the Western Slope of Mt. Kita nglad, Mindanao Island, Philippines

The Mt. Kitanglad Range is one of the country’s important key biodiversity sites;however, information about anuran diversity in this protected area remains depauperate. Herein we provided accounts of anuran species from high-elevation forests, in three sites of the western slope of Mt. Kitanglad range. The combined belt-transect sampling and microha bitat searches accounted for 13 species representing five families. The most represented family was Rhacophoridae with five representative species of the genus Philautus. Twelve out of the 13 species documented in the current survey are endemic. Four previously unaccounted species(Pelophr yne brevipes, Pulchrana grandocula, Sanguirana mearnsi, and Philautus surrufus) were added and brought the total anurans known from Mt. Kitanglad to 26 species. Most of the species were also recorded in forested sites, suggestive of their lesser affinity to non-forested ecosystems. The additional species detected during our survey may also imply that full understanding of anuran diversity of Mt. Kitanglad remains far from complete.

Forests Hold the Key

An interview with Mr. Allen Tak Yuen Chan,Managing Director and CEO of Sino-Forest Corp. of Canada A lien Tak Yuen Chan,Managing Director and CEO of the Sino-Forest Corp.,is an acclaimed academic and a columnist.

Molecular evidence for novel Cantharellus (Cantharellales, Basidiomycota) from tropical African miombo woodland and a key to all tropical African chanterelles

The authors present a combined morphological and molecular approach of the genus Cantharellus in Africa.Morphological descriptions and detailed illustrations are provided for five new species from the Zambezian savannah woodlands in tropical Africa:C.afrocibarius,C.gracilis,C.humidicolus,C.miomboensis and C.tanzanicus.A maximum likelihood analysis of tef-1 sequences obtained for 83 collections of Cantharellus that are representative of all major groups in world wide Cantharellus,places a total of 13 African chanterelles,including the five newly described taxa.The recognition of a separate genus Afrocantharellus is rejected.An identification key based on the re-examination of all existing type material is provided for all presently known African Cantharellus.

Role of magpie in bird community formation in secondary forest

We analyzed a bird community in a secondary forest and the results show that the magpie was one of the key groups in the secondary forest.The key group is identified based on the nests used by other birds at a rate of 25%-40.17%.The size of the community is different and the number of these key groups is not certain.

Views and attitudes of local people towards community versus state forest governance in Tehulederi District, South Wollo, Ethiopia

Introduction:Restoring the degraded sites with vegetation cover is an optimal solution to mitigate environmental disasters.Starting from the 1980s,donor-assisted land rehabilitation activities were taking place in Tehulederi District,South Wollo,Ethiopia.Meanwhile,majority of the forests were destroyed;part of the problem was associated with the top-down approach of forest management.The challenge is,therefore,to find a system of management that can enhance the combined effect of both the community and the state.The community forestry(i.e.a forest development activity which is practiced and managed collectively by the community members on their communal land)is one such alternative.The objectives of the study were to(1)examine the views and attitudes of local people towards community versus state forests governance and(2)evaluate the management practices implemented in the community versus state forestry and their implications on the forest status and the livelihood of local people.Methods:A structured questionnaire consisting of closed-and open-ended questions was developed to collect quantitative data from randomly selected households.Moreover,key informant interviews and focus group discussions were conducted to gather qualitative data.Descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression were used to analyze and interpret the quantitative data.The data obtained through key informant interviews and focus group discussions were synthesized and narrated using a qualitative method.Results:Several socioeconomic variables significantly affected the views and attitudes of local people towards community versus state forests governance.Generally,local people had positive views and attitudes towards the community forestry.Over 83%of the respondents agreed to accept and practice community forestry.In contrast,about 70%of the respondents had negative views and attitudes towards the state forestry.The positive views and attitudes of local people towards the community forestry may be connected with the perceived benefits(e.g.infrastructure development,source of medicinal plants,wood products,and source of fodder)and the values(e.g.aesthetic and recreational)that local people expect from the community forest.However,the negative views and attitudes of local people towards the state forestry could be attributed to the fact that the community may have limited access to forests when they are exclusively managed by the government.Moreover,such forest management may aggravate antagonistic relationship between the government and local people and be manifested as forest use conflicts.The results obtained from key informant interviews and focus group discussions suggested that the community forest had a better status than the state forest.This may have resulted from the relative advantage of the community forestry to make better use of the community forest,manage it more sustainability,and contribute more equitably to satisfy local livelihoods than does the state forestry.The respondents also illustrated the dependence of local people on forests,utilization,protection,management,and silvicultural schemes implemented in the community versus state forests.Conclusions:The findings emphasize the importance of collective decisions in forest management and governance.The intervention for a legal framework and institutional development particularly through formal recognition of local people’s ownership and right over the use of forests is indispensable towards sustainable forestry.

High-altitude tree growth responses to climate change across the Hindu Kush Himalaya

Aims Rapid warming at high altitudes may lead to a higher sensitivity in tree growth to temperature.The key factors constraining tree radial growth and to what extent regional tree growth has suffered from climatic changes are unclear.Methods Tree-ring width data were collected from 73 sites across the Hindu Kush Himalaya(HKH),including three dominant genera(Abies,Juniperus and Picea)at high altitudes over 3000 m.Dynamic time warping was introduced to develop subregional chronologies by considering the synchrony of annual tree growth among different sites.We quantified the contribution of the climate variables,and analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of the growth–climate relationship.Important Findings The site chronologies were grouped into three clusters,corresponding to the three distinct bioclimatic zones,i.e.the western HKH,central-eastern HKH and southeastern Tibetan Plateau(TP).Tree growth was positively correlated to winter and spring precipitation in the drier western HKH,and to winter temperature and spring precipitation in the humid southeastern TP.Tree growth was markedly constrained by the minimum temperature,especially in winter,with its importance increasing from the west toward the east.As shown by moving correlation analysis,the signal of winter temperature in tree growth was weakened in the western and central-eastern HKH,while it was enhanced in the southeastern TP following rapid warming since the 1980s.Our results highlight that continuous warming may cause forest recession due to warming-induced moisture deficit in the western HKH,but forest expansion in the southeastern TP.