The Belt and Road Initiative and International Industrial Transfer: Economic and International Implications

Theorists have discussed the Belt and Road Initiative relative to its political or policy implications, and world response to it has focused on analysis and commentary that assesses it geopolitically, with some even calling it a power play by China. Although the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed and has been promoted by China, it fundamentally is being developed within and adapted to laws of international industrial transfer and worldwide economic development trends, founding the initiative on universality and objectivity. The Belt and Road Initiative is an upgraded version or a new phase of the Go Out strategy adopted by the Chinese government to encourage Chinese enterprises to look abroad, which has been an important part of international industrial transfer. China is becoming a major output source in this new round of international industrial transfer, and the countries along the Belt and Road have become the major recipients. The new growth center of the global economy is likely to emerge along the Belt and Road, but the question of which countries in particular will take the lead in industrializing and accelerating economic growth through this industrial transfer will be decided in part through conditions such as development stage, technical maturity, cost level, and geographical location and in part through internal and external policy adjustment and choices made by the participating countries.

Research on the Industrial Transfer and Restructuring Path of the Energy-Intensive Manufacturing Industry in Western China

The orderly transfer of the manufacturing industry is a major action in China’s industrial restructuring.From the perspective of industrial transfer,we used the concentration ratio to depict the trend of the industrial transfer of energy-intensive manufacturing in the eastern,central,and western regions since the policy of large-scale development of western China was implemented.We measured the total factor productivity(TFP)of western China using the DEAMalmquist index method.We conducted a regression analysis to measure the effect of western China’s undertaking of the transfer of the energy-intensive manufacturing industry.The findings of this study show that during 2000–2019,eleven provinces(as well as autonomous regions and municipalities)in western China undertook the transfer of the energy-intensive manufacturing industry from the eastern and central regions to varying degrees,exhibiting significant phase features regarding the rate and scale of transfers.Further investigation also demonstrated that the transfer of energy-intensive manufacturing industries has a U-shaped enabling effect on TFP in western China with the scale effect greater than the technology effect.Therefore,it is necessary to transition from“extensive industrial transfer”at the cost of the labor force,land,and resources to“modern industrial transfer”featured by technology and efficiency improvements to contribute to industrial restructuring in western China effectively.

Uncovering CO_(2) emission drivers under regional industrial transfer in China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt: a multi-layer LMDI decomposition analysis

With the relocation of heavy industries moving from downstream region to upstream and midstream regions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB),it is critical to encourage coordinated low carbon development in different regions within the YREB.This paper uncovers the evolution of CO_(2) emissions in different regions within the YREB for the period of 2000–2017.It decomposes regional CO_(2) emission changes using the temporal and cross-regional three-layer logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI)method.Besides,it decomposes industrial CO_(2) emission changes using the temporal two-layer LMDI method.The research results show that economic growth is the major driver for regional CO_(2) emission disparities.The mitigation drivers,such as energy intensity and energy structure,lead to a more decreased CO_(2) emission in the downstream region than in the upstream and midstream regions.In addition,it proposes several policy recommendations based upon the local realities,including improving energy efficiency,optimizing energy structure,promoting advanced technologies and equipment transfers,and coordinating the development in the upstream,midstream and downstream regions within the YREB.

Analysis and Research on Industrial Land Transfer in Hefei City Economic and Technological Development Zone of Anhui Province

In recent years,with high-speed development of economy and society,and fast propulsion of industrialization and urbanization process in the development zone,average annual land demand in the development zone also quickly enlarges,and the contradiction between high-speed growth of economy and shortage of land resources is apparent increasingly. Meanwhile,to guarantee crop safety and stick to 0. 12 billion hm2of farmland red line as a rigid constraint which could not be exceeded,the supply-demand contradiction of industrial land is more and more prominent. With industrial land scale continues to enlarge,land resources become more and more scarce,but there exists the phenomenon of low-efficiency land use and even idle. For land use characteristics of the development zone,taking Hefei City Economic and Technological Development Zone as an example,the countermeasures of perfecting industrial land transfer mechanism in the development zone are proposed.

A STUDY ON THE MECHANISM AND CHARACTEROF THE INDUSTRIALAND SPATIAL TRANSFERENCE OF FDI IN CHINA

In the last two decades, China has become one of the areas that have the greatest potential in industrial production, thus it has ranked second only to USA in the flow of international capital. By the end of 1998, the real value of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) in China has utilized has added up to $268.1 billion. The big flow of FDI has not only promoted the development of social economy, but also worsened the existing regional difference by choosing spatial location. Under this circumstance, China’s economy faces new restrictions and opportunities while adjusting its regional structure and industrial structure. So it is more and more important for us how to seize the opportunity, to seek the regularity of FDI in choosing location from the aspect of space, to set up relevant strategy to direct FDI at inland regions (areas deficient of capital), and to make appropriate policies, esp. the industrial and regional policies so as for FDI to exert positive influence and avoid negative influence on China and its regional economy and society. Based on the latest domestic and overseas materials and data of the FDI in China, combining with the investigation of the enterprises, this paper has systematically revealed the progress of development of the FDI in China and the developing conditions of the main enterprises directly invested by foreign capital since the reform and opening-up in China. The characters of FDI such as spatial concentration, transference as time goes on, change of the technical content and up-gradation of industrial structure and their forming mechanism have been studied. Then the basic conclusions have been made as follows. Firstly, FDI has been highly concentrated in space. But as time goes by, it has been transferring from coastal regions to inland ones, from big cities to their surrounding districts, and the degree of concentration is decreasing. Secondly, the technical content of the invested projects has gradually increased and the up-gradation of the industrial structure is obvious. Thirdly, the regional choice of the FDI in China is mainly affected by labor and other productive factors. The relative change of the cost of productive factors in different regions since the reform and opening-up is one of the main factors that have caused the spatial transference of the FDI in China. Fourthly, as people’s income increases and the accumulation of the capacity of the technique and labor advances, FDI whose aim is to get more market has increased and tended to transfer from coastal regions to inland ones. Fifthly, the changes of the industrial structure of the main areas and countries who have directly invested in China and the changes of inter-regional industries and regional policies in China are also the important factors that affect the industries directly invested by foreign capital and their spatial transference.

Research on the Impact of Land Transfer on County Agricultural Industrialized Development——A Case Study of Dali County,Shaanxi Province

On the strength of the status quo of Chinese land transfer,the changes of the county agricultural production factor market arising from land transfer from four aspects covering land market,agricultural capital market,agricultural labor market and agricultural science and technology.The impacts of land transfer on county agricultural industrialized development are analyzed:in the first place,the large amount of land required by the county agricultural scale production can be effectively supplied;in the second place,a large number of labors required by the county agricultural industrialized production can be effectively fulfilled;in the third place,the innovation of science and technology provides motivation for adjusting the county agricultural industrial structure.On the basis of that,the countermeasures on promoting the county economic development are put forward:firstly,the land transfer market should be standardized to ensure the sustainable and stable development of county agricultural industrialized development;secondly,the commercial value,variations and added value of the county agricultural products should be improved;thirdly,the input on the county agricultural capital should be ensured.

Present Situation,Problems and Countermeasures of Land Transfer in the Process of Agricultural Industrialization in the Qinling-Daba Mountains(Shiyan)

In order to study the current situation of land transfer in the process of agricultural industrialization in the Qinling-Daba Mountains(Shiyan),27 villages of 14 townships(towns) of six counties(cities) were visited and investigated through questionnaires,and the current situation and characteristics of land transfer among large professional households( large grain producers),family farms,agricultural enterprises and cooperatives in the process of agricultural industrialization were analyzed and summarized. The main issues affecting land transfer were summarized,such as big difference of inflow and outflow will,single way of land transfer,high cost of planting,weak agricultural infrastructure,a lack of production and operation technology,insufficient funds and short land transfer period,and imperfect social security system.Meanwhile,some countermeasures were proposed,such as improving land transfer system,precise subsidy policy and social security mechanism of Shiyan City,guiding long-term and normalized land transfer,strengthening training of professional skills and improving the quality of human resources,actively promoting the " three-township project",and attracting the investment in land transfer projects.

Industrial layout reconstruction, the role of local government and variation of pollution distribution in China

In recent years, high-polluting industries have been gradually shifted from the eastern developed regions to the central and western underdeveloped regions in China. Certain environmental regulations have been in place accordingly in various regions, but the pollution in the central and western regions has risen sharply. Based on the data of interprovincial panel in China from 2006 to 2015, this paper calculates high-pollution industry dynamic agglomeration index, environmental pollution agglomeration index and relative environmental regulation intensity index, and uses Generalized Method of Moments to carry out the regression analyses of the whole samples,regional heterogeneity and temporal heterogeneity. The results show that there is an inverted Ushaped relationship between relative environmental regulation and environmental pollution concentration in China. The concentration degrees of industrial wastewater pollution and industrial waste gas pollution are deepened, which are mainly caused by the transfer of highly polluting industries. However, the concentration of industrial solid waste pollution caused by the transfer is not obvious. Furthermore, the deepening of industrialization intensifies the concentration of regional environmental pollution. Environmental Kuznets Curve does exist in China,but it is not significant. The increase of labor cost and quality will reduce the concentration of environmental pollution.

An industrial-scale annular centrifugal extractor for the TRPO process

Annular centrifugal extractors(ACEs) offer advantages including excellent hydraulic and mass-transfer performance, small hold-up volume, short residence time,and thus low solvent degradation, high nuclear criticality,easy start-up and shut-down, high compact structure.Therefore, ACEs have attracted increasing interest for future nuclear processing schemes, including the partitioning of high-level liquid waste(HLLW). Laboratoryscale and pilot-scale ACEs have been applied in demonstration tests of the trialkyl phosphine oxide(TRPO) process for HLLW partitioning. In this study, an industrialscale ACE(260 mm in rotor diameter) with magnetic coupling and a ‘‘hanging'' rotor structure was developed for the TRPO process. Moreover, a series of hydraulic and mass-transfer tests were carried out in the industrial-scale ACE. The maximum throughput can reach 10 m^3/h under suitable operation parameters when kerosene is used as the organic phase, and water is used as the aqueous phase. The influence of the total flowrate, the flow ratio(aqueous/organic, A/O), and the rotor speed on the liquid hold-up volume was determined. The extraction stage efficiency is higher than 98% under test parameters for extraction of Nd^(3+) and HNO_3, using 30% TRPO kerosene as theextractant from an HNO_3 solution containing Nd. All results show good performance of the industrial-scale ACE for the TRPO process.

Industrialization, Modernization and Self-Organization

This paper studies the industrialization of China, a key problem of Chinese economic development with self-organization theory in system science. The dual economic structure of modern industry and traditional agriculture existing simultaneously is the typical economic structure for most developing countries. How can we break the dual economic structure? After China has carried out the peasant family output-related system of contracted responsibilities, the rural enterprises which develop swiftly and violently are setting up a bridge between traditional agriculture and modern industry. This paper models the triple economic structure formed by traditional agriculture, rural enterprises and modern industry. From the study of structure evolution, we obtain the important relationship between economic growth rate, the rate of technological progress, the growth rate of capital and the growth rate of population, deduce three critical points of population growth, and find out the conditions under which the national economic system forms a stable and orderly self-organized structure. On the basis of quantitative analysis, we propose an approach to the strategies of industrialization of China, especially to the problem of rural enterprise development and rural labor transfer, and give three conclusions and four developmental strategies about national economic system.

Reflection and Study on the Transfer of International Manufacturing Industries and Chinese Sustainable Development

Ever since the 1960s, especially 1980s, under the background of quickening pace of economic globalization and the regional division of labor around the world, the transfer of manufacturing industries among countries and areas gets great momentum and impetus. During 20-plus years in which China has adopted the policy of opening-up and reforming, our country has played an active role in taking part in the transfer of manufacturing industries. It advances the structural change of national manufacturing industries, accelerates national industrialism and promotes the comprehensive development of regional economics. In this paper, the author makes some initial study on the regularity of transfer of International manufacturing industries, discusses the profound impact of such shift on our national resources, environment, economics and society, and also proposes corresponding suggestions on how to implement the strategy of sustainable development in the process of the shift.

International trade,pollution industry transfer and CO_2 emissions in Chinese industries

Will developed countries turn China into a haven for "dirty" industries through international trade by specializing in producing and exporting "clean" products and importing pollution-intensive products from China? How does international trade affect Chinese industries' CO2 emissions? This paper presents an empirical test of these hypotheses using statistical techniques such as the environmental input-output model and net exports as a proportion of consumption(NETXC) based on the trade data of 20 industries in China,and G7 and OECD developed countries.In this study,we draw three conclusions:(1) The proportion of domestically produced CO2 emissions in CO2 emissions embodied in products exported from China has been declining;(2) Industries migrated or displaced from developed countries into China include both "dirty" and "clean" industries;(3) International trade can help industries reduce CO2 emissions in aggregate and per unit of output.China has not become a haven for developed countries' "dirty" industries as a result of international trade.

AN INNOVATIVE ORDERS-OF-MAGNITUDE AHP APPROACH OF LEADING INDUSTRIES SELECTION:CASE STUDY OF JIANGBEI INDUSTRIAL CLUSTERS IN CHINA

In current stage of China Industrial Transfer, how to select the leading industries is an extremely difficult decision. In this research, we study the selection problem of Jiangbei Industrial Clusters in Anhui Province. Total thirty-three industries can be transferred to Jiangbei Industrial Clusters, however due to limited capacity, Jiangbei Industrial Clusters can only accommodate a few of them. The difficulties of such decision include： 1） the decisions are qualitative within a complex and uncertain environment; 2） the number of alternatives is beyond the upper bound of comparing elements in general decision making methods. We introduce a new methodology-the Orders-of-Magnitude approach of the Analytic Hierarchy Process （OM-AHP） to solve such selection decision. The OM-AHP follows AHP philosophy to structure qualitative questions and uses ＂pivot＂ element to handle the situation when the alternatives become more than seven. By employing OM-AHP methodology, we found the modern logistics industry and ship ＆ marine equipment etc., are identified to be the leading industries; particularly, we recommend to give higher priority in modern logistics industry and the advanced equipment manufacturing industry, given these two industries could dramatically improve the overall comprehensive economic strength and significantly enhance competitive advantages of the Jiangbei Industrial Clusters.

Anomaly Detection of Industrial Control Systems Based on Transfer Learning

Industrial Control Systems(ICSs)are the lifeline of a country.Therefore,the anomaly detection of ICS traffic is an important endeavor.This paper proposes a model based on a deep residual Convolution Neural Network(CNN)to prevent gradient explosion or gradient disappearance and guarantee accuracy.The developed methodology addresses two limitations:most traditional machine learning methods can only detect known network attacks and deep learning algorithms require a long time to train.The utilization of transfer learning under the modification of the existing residual CNN structure guarantees the detection of unknown attacks.One-dimensional ICS flow data are converted into two-dimensional grayscale images to take full advantage of the features of CNN.Results show that the proposed method achieves a high score and solves the time problem associated with deep learning model training.The model can give reliable predictions for unknown or differently distributed abnormal data through short-term training.Thus,the proposed model ensures the safety of ICSs and verifies the feasibility of transfer learning for ICS anomaly detection.

Policy transfer and scale reconstruction of China’s overseas industrial parks:A case study of the Malaysia-China Kuantan Industrial Park

As an innovative mode of China's foreign direct investment, China's overseas industrial parks are not only the main content of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) but also the practical carrier of policy transfer. However, most of the academic literature on the policy transfer of overseas industrial parks has regarded the host country as a passive learner and seldom considers the two-way interactions between the host country and the home country. Using the Malaysia-China Kuantan Industrial Park(MCKIP) and the "Two Countries, Twin Parks" model as case studies, we discuss the applicability and innovative development of the policy transfer theory of China's overseas industrial parks under the background of BRI. This article systematically analyzes the developmental background of the MCKIP and the cooperative framework between the governments. We consider the problems encountered in the policy transfer process and the solutions, as well as the two-way interactions between China and Malaysia in terms of the flow of people, logistics, capital, information, and technology. The study sheds light on the construction of the "Two Countries, Twin Parks" overseas industrial park.

Environmental cost and pollution risk caused by the industrial transfer in Qinghai Province

With the rising pressure due to energy consumption and costs of environmental protection and recovery, industrial transfer from the eastern to central and western areas has surged in China. However, extremely fragile ecological conditions and severe water shortage are significant hurdles for industry development in Western China. Whether the vulnerable environment can bear the pollution caused by the transferred industry from Eastern China becomes a significant issue. This study firstly estimates energy and environmental costs in different areas of China, and assesses the necessity to upgrade the industrial structure of Qinghai Province. Then the emis- sions of waste water, waste gas, and smoke caused by transferred industries are calculated by Input-Output Model. On the basis of the effect analysis of waste emission on environment, pollution risks of Qinghai province are assessed. The results illustrate that the costs of environmental protection and recovery in China have a gradient distribution, of which the energy efficiency is Lower while environmental costs are higher in Western China. Industrial structure adjustment has different impacts on the pollution of different sectors. Although the development of machinery and equipment, hotels and catering services, and real estate, leasing, and business services has increased the emission of pollutants, it is offset by the decreasing emissions caused by other industries such as construction and metal products. Therefore, although economic development will increase environ- mental pollution, industrial adjustments can effectively decrease waste water and waste gas emissions to reduce the pollution risk. It should be noted that there are still tremendous challenges for industrial transfer in Qinghai Province to coordinate the environment and industry development.

A Study on the Transfer of China’s Manufacturing under the Adjustment of Global Industrial Layout-An Analysis Based on the Multi-Regional Input-Output Model of China and the United States

Based on the multi-regional input-output model and WIOD data in 2014,this paper quantitatively estimates the impact of manufacturing transfer on China’s GDP and industrial structure from three technological categories of manufacturing,two stages and three channels.This paper finds that:(1)China’s exports to the United States are mainly high-tech products,and high-tech manufacturing is greatly constrained by the United States,which requires close attention.(2)Manufacturing transfer has an impact through three channels,i.e.direct effect,correlation effect and spillover effect.Direct effect is the main channel of infl uence in the short term,but in the long term,spillover effect is the main factor causing inter-sector differences.(3)In the short run,the transfer of low-tech manufacturing has the greatest impact on China’s GDP,while in the long run,the transfer of medium-and high-tech manufacturing will exert much stronger impact than that of low-tech manufacturing,and low-tech manufacturing is less helpful for the upgrading of China’s industrial structure.In order to mitigate the impact of industrial transfer,this paper suggests that differentiated policies be adopted for different technological categories of manufacturing,with special focus on strengthening the dominance and irreplaceability of medium-and high-tech manufacturing in the industrial chain in China.

Financial Pressure,Economic Stimulus and Land Transfer with the Aim of Attracting Investment-Empirical Evidence Based on Micro Data of Industrial Land

Although China’s local governments are facing greater financial pressure,they often sell industrial land at low prices to attract investment.Local government land transfer strategies refl ect driving mechanisms of officials’behavior.Based on the micro data of about 340000 industrial land sales in 289 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2015,this paper divides industrial land transfer into two categories,namely land transfer with the aim of attracting investment and normal transfer,according to whether the transfer price is lower than the minimum price stipulated by central government.The paper explores the strategies of industrial land transfer under financial pressure and the motivation differences of officials with the help of changes in local land transfers after the introduction of economic stimulus policies.It is found that financial pressure will signifi cantly reduce local industrial land transfer with the aim of investment attraction.However,after the introduction of economic stimulus policies,although financial pressure has increased,the infl uence of financial pressure on local governments’investment-induced land transfer behavior significantly weakened due to the increase of out-of-system financing channels,thus industrial land transfer with the aim of attracting investment has increased signifi cantly.From the perspective of promotion incentives of officials,officials with longer term were more inclined to sell industrial land to attract investment.Therefore,it is necessary to rationally arrange the financial resources and powers of central and local governments,to adapt reasonable macro control method and strategy,and to build an offi cial evaluation system that meets the needs of high-quality development.

Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Industrial Upgrading from the Perspective of Differences among Countries

This paper constructs a two-sector model to identify the effects of outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)in different countries on China s industrial upgrading and conducts an empirical analysis using provincial-level panel data from 2003--2015.The results show that China can benefit firom industrial upgrading via OFDI in developed countries by way of reverse technology spillover:This effect is significant in the eastern region,but not in the central and western regions.China can also benefit from industrial upgrading via OFDI in developing countries and countries along the Belt and Road through marginal industrial transfer.This effect is more significant in the central region,followed by the western and eastern regions.Our results imply that China should promote technology-seeking OFDI in developed countries,and enhance efficiency-seeking OFDI in developing countries,especially in countries along the Belt and Road.

Variegated transnational partnerships:Multi-scalar actor networks in China’s overseas industrial parks

The development of overseas industrial parks is a key component of the Belt and Road Initiative and a practical way of promoting inclusive globalization by introducing new forms of cooperation between China and the host countries. In this paper, the Thai-Chinese Rayong Industrial Zone(TCRIZ), and the China-Indonesia Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone(KITIC) are discussed in the context of the evolving development strategies and trajectories through three interrelated conceptual lenses – policy mobility, actor networks, and partnerships. The actor-network theory provides a lens to analyze how policy mobility and partnerships develop for two industrial zone case studies. The development, which involves a multi-scalar process, is shaped by the interactions among the national states, the regional governments and corporations against a background of globalization. Three types of transnational actor partnership networks have been identified, namely, hierarchical partnership, spontaneous partnership, and hybrid partnership. A highlight of the study is the role that the partnerships play in the process of policy mobility when it comes to the overseas industrial zones. It is argued that the partnerships are the key to achieving technology transfer on a cross-national basis, and the effectiveness of the technology transfer is dependent on partner selection and the roles of the actors in policy mobility.