The Turkish Economy in the Period between 1990 and 2000 in the Light of the Open Economy Policies of the 1980s Developments

The structure of the economy seems to have been reshaped for the post-1980 period with the decisions of January 24,1980 and the structural changes that followed.In the 1980s,which can be called the transition process to a Free-Market Economy and an open economy,on the one hand,the privatization of state institutions and the determination of the prices of goods and services in free market conditions were tried to be ensured in order to withdraw the state from economic life,on the other hand,it was tried to grant freedom to foreign trade and capital movements.While these two main issues were being realized,the import substitution industrialization strategy was abandoned and the export-led growth model was started to be implemented.The last step of this process of opening up and liberalization was realized with the decision numbered 32 in 1989.While the change in the economic structure was achieved through domestic borrowing in the 1980s,with the liberalization of capital movements in the 1990s,it was seen that economic growth and development were tried to be achieved with hot money inflows rather than foreign direct investments.This orientation made the economy more open to crises,and for the first time there was a crisis in the form of the 1994 economic crisis,which was understood to be caused by hot money.The 1994 economic crisis could only be overcome by giving government guarantees to bank deposits and issuing high-interest Treasury Bills.Even the new banking regulations could not prevent the emergence of similar new economic crises in the following years.Because,we can say that the economic crisis experienced in the 2000s brought about a political transformation along with creating great economic problems.

World Economy and the Export Dependence of China's Textile Industry

In this paper,the current status of export dependence of China's textile industry and affecting factors are evaluated.A cointegration test for world economy and China's export of textile and apparel is conducted which suggests that a long-term cointegration relationship exists between the growth rate of the world economy and that of China's export of textiles and apparel.The world economy will enter a period of low-speed growth,and the growth rate of China's textile and apparel exports will slow down accordingly.On the other hand,China's domestic expenditures on textiles and apparel are expected to maintain robust growth.According to the trends of exports and domestic demand,the export dependence of China's textile industry will go down with fluctuations.The conclusion is useful to evaluating the performance of the textile industry and making relevant policies.

Export Competition Between China and Other Asian Economies： Vying for Quantity, Quality or Variety？

China and some other Asian economies are the main providers of manufactured goods to the world. Similar geographical distribution, endowment structure and level of economic development mean that there is ferce competition among Asian economies in the international market. In an effort to understand thoroughly the model of export competition of Asian economies, this paper breaks the trade flow data into the quantity, variety and quality. The main conclusions are as follows： First, the export competition of the Asian economies takes place at the several levels of quantity, quality and variety, and the competitive advantage of different countries and regions lies in different aspect,＂ second, the variety and quality of exports are closely related to the economic development level; third, there are strong trade ties among the Asian economies competing in the world commodity market;fourth, bigger countries export more produets in terms of quantity;fifth, the change from quantity competition to quality and variety competition is the only way for China to achieve sustainable export growth.

HAS THE PEARL RIVER DELTA BEEN AN EXPORT-ORIENTED ECONOMY?

Ever since the introduction of the Open Door Policy, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) has enjoyed very phenomenal export and economic growth. As a result, many scholars have tried to associate the two phenomena and described the region as an,'export-oriented economy'.However, these studies, mostly based on the rapid export growth of the PRD and its status as the most important exporting area of the country,have not paid any heed to the actual export-orientation of the regional economy and, hence, cannot prove that the PRD has been a 'truly'export-oriented economy. in view of these shortcomings. the present paper attempts to re-examine the issue from the viewpoint of the PRD's local economy, at both the regional and county levels. The study period is from 1981 to 1990. Judging from the export-dependency indices and the relative importance of exports in accounting for the economic growth and industrialization of the PRD, this paper concludes that the region, though having signs of increasing export-orientation, cannot be categorized as a 'truly' export-oriented economy. In addition, it also shows that most of the 'evidences' or 'common beliefs' behind the notion of an export-oriented economy in the RD are illusionary, if not erroneous. Finally, the paper explores into the reasons behind the low export-orientation of the PRD and tries to sugyst some ways for boosting the export-orientation of the PRD and tries to suggest some ways for boosting the export-orientation of the region.

数字经济发展与出口韧性:来自我国地级市层面的经验证据

随着全球经济不确定性加剧和地缘政治经济形势日渐复杂,我国出口贸易韧性面临较大外部冲击,而数字经济快速发展通过有效赋能贸易转型升级深刻影响城市出口韧性。基于此背景,系统梳理数字经济影响出口韧性的理论机制,利用我国地级市面板数据和双重差分模型,实证检验数字经济发展对我国城市出口韧性的影响效应及作用机制。研究表明:数字经济发展对出口韧性抵抗性和恢复性均具有显著的正向影响,多种稳健性检验均支持上述结论。该影响效应在低数字经济发展水平城市和低对外贸易依存度城市表现得更为突出;数字经济发展对出口韧性抵抗性的影响在中西部和北部城市更为突出,对出口韧性恢复性的影响在东部和北部城市更为明显。此外,数字经济通过影响技术创新和贸易开放提升出口韧性,产业因素中制造业集聚对此具有负向调节作用,产业多样化对此具有正向调节作用。进一步研究发现,互联网发展规模对数字经济影响出口韧性抵抗性具有非线性作用,表现为双门槛效应。以上结论为提升我国城市出口韧性、加快实现贸易高质量发展提供理论支撑,提出加大对数字经济与相关产业的支持力度,促进数字技术与传统行业深度融合,推动国内各地域均衡发展,倡导经济多样化发展等建议。

数字经济是否有利于提升制造业出口技术复杂度?

数字经济已成为中国制造业价值创造和价值增值的新引擎,为提升中国制造业出口竞争力提供了新机遇。基于2005—2020年中国省际面板数据,以成本节约、人力资本、技术创新为中介机制,知识产权保护为门槛变量,研究数字经济是否对制造业出口技术复杂度具有提升作用。研究发现:数字经济可以显著促进制造业出口技术复杂度提升;中介效应检验表明成本节约、人力资本、技术创新均可以在数字经济提升制造业出口技术复杂度过程中发挥部分中介效应;进一步分析说明数字经济在跨过知识产权保护门槛后,对制造业出口技术复杂度提升作用有边际递增效应。

Is the Long-term Economic Decline of the Philippines Unstoppable? Trends, Reasons, Outlook

The Philippines was in the 1960s a model of development in Asia and second to Japan,but occupies presently only the 11th position under South-East and East Asian countries in terms of GDP-per capita.The article explores why this important Asian country with a long colonial past and enormous economic potential still ranks under lower-income countries and has in the last decades let pass by many other Asian countries.In answering this question,the approach of external triggers for accelerated development is being applied.In stark contrast to the success stories of the strongly outward-looking Asian countries like the four Tigers,later of Thailand and Vietnam the Philippines never developed a vision of an open economy connecting pro-actively to the world markets.Trade is hampered by a non-competitive and highly protected national economy.The existing FDI is more oriented to the profitable local markets.Foreign debts were never effectively used and international tourism was never well promoted.Linking these failures to the existing power structures in the country,it seems very much that the backward forces like the big landowners,the local producers and industrialists never wanted and continue not to want to open up the economy to international competition and governments are complacent with these groups.Various indicators demonstrate the long-term decline of the Philippines:Among them the slow growth of the GDP and the continuously high poverty rates.As the alliance of big business and policy holds firm no change in the failing nationalistic economic model can be detected leaving the bleak outlook that the economic decline will continue.

数字经济赋能高技术制造业出口技术复杂度——基于20112020年中国30个省市的面板数据

基于20112020年30个省市的面板数据,从数字基础设施、数字发展环境和数字应用产出三个维度构建数字经济发展指标,运用中介和门槛效应模型实证检验了数字经济对中国高技术制造业出口技术复杂度的影响。结果表明,数字经济显著提升了高技术制造业出口技术复杂度,且影响具有非线性特征。进一步研究发现,数字经济对技术密集型制造业出口技术复杂度的影响更为显著,数字基础设施对资本密集型高技术制造业影响更显著。机制检验表明,数字经济提高了区域创新水平,降低了区域交易成本,进而促进了高技术制造业出口技术复杂度提升。

数字经济赋能企业出口韧性

利用中国工业企业数据库和中国海关数据库识别数字经济发展对企业出口韧性的因果效应。结果表明:数字经济发展可以显著提升企业出口韧性,这一结论在使用工具变量、改变关键变量衡量指标、改变回归样本、排除其他竞争性解释等稳健性检验后依然成立。机制检验显示,成本节约效应和国内价值链延伸效应是数字经济提升企业出口韧性的重要机制。异质性分析发现,数字经济发展对东部地区企业、一般贸易企业、民营企业和外资企业出口韧性的提升作用更加显著,数字经济对企业出口韧性的提升带来的是“数字红利”而非“数字鸿沟”。

数字经济、文化距离与中国文化产品出口——基于39个贸易伙伴国的实证研究

本文基于2010~2021年中国与39个主要文化贸易伙伴国的面板数据,构建扩展的贸易引力模型,利用动态系统广义矩估计以及门槛面板回归的方法,实证分析数字经济与文化距离对文化产品出口的影响。研究发现:(1)数字经济对中国文化产品出口具有显著的促进作用,而文化距离则具有反向抑制作用;(2)异质性分析显示数字经济对不同类别文化产品出口的促进作用有所差异,其中对音像和交互媒体类文化产品促进作用最大,对书籍和报刊类文化产品影响不显著;(3)门槛面板分析显示,当中国与贸易伙伴国之间的文化距离超过门槛值后,数字经济对文化产品出口的促进作用由显著促进变为不显著促进。基于此,本文提出利用数字技术赋能文化贸易发展、突破文化距离限制、优化文化产品出口结构、提高数字贸易规则制定的话语权等若干建议。

数字经济对长江经济带制造业出口竞争力的影响

数字经济为制造业带来了全新的发展机遇。通过数字化转型和创新,制造业能够提升其价值增值能力和产业竞争力,进一步促进行业的可持续发展。基于2012—2021年中国长江经济带省级层面数据,运用固定效应模型实证检验数字经济对长江经济带制造业出口竞争力的影响。研究结果表明,数字经济显著提升了长江经济带制造业的出口竞争力,在稳健性检验后,结论依然成立。异质性检验结果表明:数字经济对长江经济带下游制造业和技术密集型制造业的出口竞争力有正向促进作用。

中国各地区内外贸模式及其融入新发展格局研究

中国各省(区、市)如何融入新发展格局,需要深刻认识各省(区、市)对内对外贸易特征。综合定性分析和定量分析结果,中国各省(区、市)的内外贸模式可以划分为双循环经济、外向型经济、自洽型经济、均衡型经济、内贸型经济、沿边型经济、输入型经济等七种类型。随着中国各地区经济发展形势的不断分化,外向型经济地区的外贸依存度大幅下降,多数地区基础设施投资能力降低,中国经济发展格局面临重塑。各地区要融入新发展格局,一是要提升国际大循环的质量和水平,二是要增强国内大循环的动力,三是要增强经济双循环的安全性和可靠性。

数字经济与出口韧性——基于281个地级市面板数据的经验证据

分析数字经济对地区出口韧性的作用机理及其效应,对于发展数字经济、保持我国对外贸易的稳定增长具有重要的理论和实践意义。本文基于2011—2021年我国281个地级市的面板数据,用熵权法构建数字经济评价指标体系,实证研究了数字经济对地区出口韧性的影响。研究发现:数字经济对地区出口韧性具有显著的正向影响。机制分析表明,数字经济能够通过技术创新、产业结构升级、市场化水平等途径提升地区出口韧性。异质性分析发现,数字经济对地区出口韧性的影响在不同地区、不同收入水平和不同环境规制强度之间存在差异。

RCEP与广西外向型经济发展:机制、挑战与对策

RCEP的正式签署将为广西的开放发展带来重大新机遇。本文分析了RCEP助力广西外向型经济发展的理论机制,即通过循环联动、可持续发展和产业升级,RCEP将有力地推动广西外向型经济长期繁荣和发展。但现阶段广西仍面临着经济结构外向程度较低、引导RCEP机制落地的顶层设计有待规划、缺乏外向型产业集群、农副土特类产品国际市场竞争力不强和自治区内部区域发展不均衡等亟需解决的问题。为进一步推进广西外向型经济高质量发展,需要大力推动外向型经济发展、合理规划RCEP机制落地的顶层设计、打造区域特色的外向型产业集群、强化农副产品国际化路径及促进区域经济协调发展。

数字经济发展水平对中国省域出口竞争力的影响研究——基于中国东、中、西部15个省份面板数据的检验

近年来,中国数字经济发展势头强劲,成为影响经济和社会发展的关键因素。数字技术不仅深刻改变了国际贸易的信息交互模式,还通过推动跨境电商、市场采购和外贸综合服务等新业态,促进了外贸增长。本文基于2013—2022年中国15个省份的面板数据,借助SPSS的描述性统计、ANOVA分析、皮尔逊相关性分析和回归分析等方法,对15个省份的数字经济发展水平及出口竞争力的波动情况进行研究,了解不同省份数字经济和出口竞争力的发展趋势及成熟度。实证结果表明,数字经济发展水平(熵值法)是影响出口竞争力的重要因素,数字经济对出口竞争力的提升效应存在区域差异。当数字经济发展到一定水平时,对出口竞争力的推动作用具有显著的正向调节作用。本研究结果可为推动中国各省数字经济和出口贸易高质量发展提供参考。

数字经济促进广东省出口贸易竞争力实证分析

在信息技术革命不断渗透的背景下,大数据、互联网、人工智能等技术为贸易发展提供了助力,数字经济的不断发展,为广东省出口贸易竞争力提供了动力。广东省作为中国改革开放的先行者和重要窗口,充分借助数字经济的机遇,进一步的扩大贸易,提升外贸竞争力具有重要的意义。选取2011—2021年广东省20个地级市的面板数据作为研究对象,构建固定效应模型,使用Stata软件实证分析数字经济与广东省出口贸易竞争力提升的关系,研究结果表明:数字经济的发展是出口贸易竞争力的重要助推力,能够提升广东省出口贸易竞争力。

数字经济对中国文化产品出口“一带一路”沿线国家的影响研究

为探究数字经济发展水平对中国文化产品出口的影响等问题,利用2010—2019年中国与“一带一路”沿线国家数字经济发展水平相关数据、中国对“一带一路”沿线国家文化产品出口数据进行实证分析;构建数字经济发展水平评价指标体系,采用多指标面板因子分析法测算了中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的数字经济发展水平;借助拓展的贸易引力模型,分析数字经济发展水平对中国文化产品出口至沿线国家的影响,并通过异质性分析研究影响的差异性。研究发现,“一带一路”沿线国家间的数字经济发展水平存在较大差距;各国数字经济发展水平对中国文化产品的出口都具有显著的正向促进作用;数字经济对中国文化产品出口至不同收入水平国家存在不同程度的促进作用;数字经济发展水平对不同种类文化产品出口贸易的影响程度具有差异,对书籍和报刊类产品的出口影响最为显著。研究表明,应持续优化数字经济发展环境,提高中国数字经济发展水平;加强与“一带一路”沿线国家在数字经济领域的全方位合作与文化交流;深化数字文化产业融合,改善文化产品贸易现状,实现文化贸易高质量发展。

数字经济、科技创新与出口技术复杂度--基于长三角地区41个城市的实证

基于2012-2021年长三角地区41个城市的面板数据探讨数字经济对制造业出口技术复杂度的影响效应和科技创新在此影响过程中的中介效应,考察了科技金融的调节效应。数字经济显著推动长三角地区城市制造业出口技术复杂度的提升,但提升作用因环境规制严苛程度、人力资本水平、中心区城市地位属性的差异而存在异质性。数字经济通过科技创新推动制造业出口技术复杂度提升,金融科技在数字经济推动长三角地区城市制造业出口技术复杂度提升中发挥负向调节效应。提高制造业出口技术复杂度,要加快发展数字经济,因地制宜实施发展政策,助力科技创新与金融服务的高质量融合发展。

数字经济对出口技术复杂度的影响研究——基于城市面板数据的实证分析

利用中国地级市面板数据,考察数字经济对制造业出口技术复杂度的影响。研究发现,数字经济发展促进了出口技术复杂度的提升,且该结论经过内生性问题处理以及稳健性测试后依然成立。作用机制检验结果表明,数字经济对出口技术复杂度的促进作用主要通过提升城市创新水平、经济集聚水平、银行业竞争水平以及人力资本水平等路径实现。进一步研究显示:市场化水平越高,数字经济对出口技术复杂度的提升作用越大,而失信环境则会阻碍数字经济对出口技术复杂度的正向影响;对于大城市或东部地区城市,数字经济提升出口技术复杂度的效应更明显。研究结论为全面深入了解数字经济的作用提供了微观证据,也为推动新发展格局下对外贸易高质量转型发展提供了理论指引。