Significant lake expansion has accelerated permafrost degradation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

In recent years, lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have become more responsive to climate change. In September 2011, Zonag Lake in Hoh Xil experienced sudden drainage, the water eventually flowed into Yanhu Lake, which caused Yanhu Lake to continue to expand. The potential collapse of Yanhu Lake could directly threaten the operational safety of the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway, Qinghai-Tibet Railway. To explore the implications of expanding lakes on the surrounding permafrost, we selected Hoh Xil Yanhu Lake on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to study the effect of lake expansion on permafrost degradation. The permafrost degradation in the Yanhu Lake basin from October 2017 to December 2022 was inverted using Sentinel-1 satellite image data and small baseline subset interferometry synthetic aperture radar(SBAS-In SAR) technology. Additionally, permafrost degradation from February 2007 and February 2010 was analyzed using advanced land observing satellite phased array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar(ALOS PALSAR) satellite images and differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar(D-In SAR) technique. The results showed that the permafrost around Yanhu Lake experienced accelerated degradation. Prior to the expansion of Yanhu Lake, the average annual deformation rate along the line of sight(LOS) direction was 6.7 mm/yr. After the expansion, the rate increased to 20.9 mm/yr. The integration of spatial-temporal distribution maps of surface subsidence, Wudaoliang borehole geothermal data, meteorological data, Yanhu Lake surface area changes, and water level changes supports the assertion that the intensified permafrost degradation could be attributed to lake expansion rather than the rising air temperature. Furthermore, permafrost degradation around Yanhu Lake could impact vital infrastructure such as the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway and Qinghai-Tibet Railway.

Unraveling the mechanisms underlying lake expansion from 2001 to 2020 and its impact on the ecological environment in a typical alpine basin on the Tibetan Plateau

Yanhu Lake basin(YHB)is a typical alpine lake on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau(TP).Its continuous expansion in recent years poses serious threats to downstream major projects.As a result,studies of the mechanisms underlying lake expansion are urgently needed.The elasticity method within the Budyko framework was used to calculate the water balance in the Yanhu Lake basin(YHB)and the neighboring Tuotuo River basin(TRB).Results show intensification of hydrological cycles and positive trends in the lake area,river runoff,precipitation,and potential evapotranspiration.Lake expansion was significant between 2001 and 2020 and accelerated between 2015 and 2020.Precipitation increase was the key factor underlying the hydrological changes,followed by glacier meltwater and groundwater.The overflow of Yanhu Lake was inevitable because it was connected to three other lakes and the water balance of all four lakes was positive.The high salinity lake water diverted downstream will greatly impact the water quality of the source area of the Yangtze River and the stability of the permafrost base of the traffic corridor.

Using remote sensing technology to monitor salt lake changes caused by climate change and melting glaciers:insights from Zabuye Salt Lake in Xizang

Zabuye Salt Lake(ZSL)in Xizang is the only saline lake in the world with natural crystalline lithium carbonate.As it is an important lithium production base in China,any changes of this lake are concerning.Global climate change(CC)has affected the hydrological conditions of glaciers,lakes,and ecosystems in the Tibetan Plateau(TP).With the aim of monitoring dynamic hydrological changes in ZSL and Lunggar Glaciers(LG)to identify factors governing lake changes,and to estimate the potential damage to grasslands and salt pans,Landsat remote sensing(RS)and meteorological data were used to do a series of experiments and analysis.Firstly,according to the spectral characteristics(SC),salt lake,glaciers,grasslands,and salt pans around the salt lake were extracted by band calculation(BC).Secondly,basin and water areas of the expanded lake were estimated using a shuttle radar topography mission(SRTM)digital elevation model(DEM).Thirdly,comprehensive analyses of lake and glacier area changes,and regional meteorological factors(annual average temperature,annual precipitation,and evaporation)were performed,and the results show that ZSL expanded at a rate of 5.28 km^(2)/a,it is likely to continue expanding.Expansion was closely related to the large-scale melting of a glacier caused by rising temperatures.Continued lake expansion(LE)will exert different effects on surrounding grasslands and salt pans,7.84 km^(2)of grassland and 2.7 km^(2)of salt pan will be submerged with every meter of water increase in the lake.Similar prediction methods was used to monitor other lakes on the TP.Mami Co,Selin Co,and Chaerhan salt lakes all expanded at different rates,and may potentially cause different levels of potential harm to surrounding grasslands and roads.Our study contributes to salt lake research and demonstrates the superiority of RS technology for monitoring saline lakes.

Zhangmu and Gyirong ports under the threat of glacial lake outburst flood

The Himalayas are prone to glacial lake outburst floods,which can pose a severe threat to downstream villages and infrastructure.The Zhangmu and Gyirong land treaty ports are located on the China-Nepal border in the central Himalayas.In recent years,the expansion of glacial lakes has increased the threat of these two port regions.This article describes the results of mapping the glacial lakes larger than 0.01 km^2 in the Zhangmu and Gyirong port regions and analyzes their change.It provides a comprehensive assessment of potentially dangerous glacial lakes and predicts the development of future glacial lakes.From 1988 to 2019,the glacial lakes in these port regions underwent"expansion",and moraine-dammed lakes show the most significant expansion trend.A total of eleven potentially dangerous glacial lakes are identified based on the assessment criteria and historical outburst events;most expanded by more than 150%from 1988 to 2019,with some by over 500%.The Cirenmaco,a moraine-dammed lake,is extremely prone to overtopping due to ice avalanches or the melting of dead ice in the dam.For other large lakes,such as the Jialongco,Gangxico and Galongco,ice avalanches may likely cause the lakes to burst besides self-destructive failure.The potential dangers of the Youmojianco glacial lakes,including lakes Nos.9,10 and 11,will increase in the future.In addition,the glacier-bed topography model predicts that 113 glacial lakes with a size larger than 0.01 km^2,a total area of 11.88 km2 and a total volume of 6.37×10^9 m^3 will form in the study area by the end of the 21 century.Due to global warming,the glacial lakes in the Zhangmu and Gyirong port regions will continue to grow in the short term,and hence the risk of glacial lake outburst floods will increase.

Lake water storage change estimation and its linkage with terrestrial water storage change in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Tibetan Plateau(TP) lakes are important water resources,which are experiencing quick expansion in recent decades.Previous researches mainly focus on analyzing the relationship between terrestrial water storage(TWS) change and lake water storage(LWS) change in the total inner TP,it is still lack of researches about the spatial difference and the characteristic of sub-region in the inner TP.In this study,we estimated the area change of 34 lakes by using Landsat images in the northeastern TP during 1976–2013,and LWS change by using the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission(SRTM).The results suggested that LWS had shrunk from 1976 to 1994,and then expanded quickly until 2013.LWS had a serious decrease by 13.6 Gt during 1976–1994,and then it increased quickly by 35.4 Gt during 1994–2013.We estimated TWS change,soil moisture change,and permafrost degradation based on the satellite data and related models during 2003–2013.The results indicated that their changing rates were 1.86 Gt/y,0.22 Gt/y,and –0.19 Gt/y,respectively.We also calculated the change of groundwater based on the mass balance with a decreasing trend of –0.054 Gt/y.The results suggested that the cause of TWS change was the increase of LWS.We analyzed the cause of lake change according to water balance,and found that the primary cause of lake expansion was the increasing precipitation(80.7%),followed by glacier meltwater(10.3%) and permafrost degradation(9%).The spatial difference between LWS change and TWS change should be studied further,which is important to understand the driving mechanism of water resources change.

Thickness estimation of the Longbasaba Glacier:methods and application

A total of 71,177 glaciers exist on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,according to the Randolph Glacier Inventory(RGI 6.0).Despite their large number,glacier ice thickness data are relatively scarce.This study utilizes digital elevation model data and ground-penetrating radar thickness measurements to estimate the distribution and variation of ice thickness of the Longbasaba Glacier using Glacier bed Topography(GlabTop),a full-width expansion model,and the Huss and Farinotti(HF)model.Results show that the average absolute deviations of GlabTop,the full-width expansion model,and the HF model are 9.8,15.5,and 10.9 m,respectively,indicating that GlabTop performs the best in simulating glacier thickness distribution.During 1980−2015,the Longbasaba Glacier thinned by an average of 7.9±1.3 m or 0.23±0.04 m/a,and its ice volume shrunk by 0.28±0.04 km3 with an average reduction rate of 0.0081±0.0001 km^3/a.In the investigation period,the area and volume of Longbasaba Lake expanded at rates of 0.12±0.01 km^2/a and 0.0132±0.0018 km3/a,respectively.This proglacial lake could potentially extend up to 5,000 m from the lake dam.

Glacier-Glacial Lake Interactions and Glacial Lake Development in the Central Himalaya,India(1994–2017)

Despite several regional glacier and glacier lake inventories, the relationship between receding glacier, glacial lake evolution(glacial-lake interactions) and their sensitivity to different forcing factors have not been properly understood yet. To better understand these processes, we used satellite images collected in 1994, 2015 and 2017 to monitor the spatially-explicit evolution of glacial lakes and glacier changes. The results show a total of 1 353 glacial lakes covering an area of 7.96 km;in the year 2015. Out of these, a total of 137 glacial lakes having an area of >0.01 km;and located within 2 km periphery of mother glacier have been selected for the monitoring of spatial development between 1994 and 2017. We found an increase in the total lake area from ~4.9 to ~7.73 km;between 1994 and 2017,corresponding to an overall expansion of ~57%. The total area covered by the glaciers associated with these lakes reduced from ~365 km;in 1994 to ~358 km^(2) in 2017, accounting for a glacier loss of ~7 km^(2) and corresponding to ~1.92% reduction. Our study results are in agreement with global glacier behavior, revealing a rapid glacier recession and accelerated glacial lake expansion under an unprecedented climate change scenario. In addition, the results suggest a significant reduction in the glacier area and a close relationship between the glacier melting and lake changes.