为研究民航飞机重着陆事件风险,提出一种基于熵权TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)的飞机重着陆事件风险因素排序方法。首先,分析了近年来中国民航飞机重着陆事件发生的规律,基于SHELL模型...为研究民航飞机重着陆事件风险,提出一种基于熵权TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)的飞机重着陆事件风险因素排序方法。首先,分析了近年来中国民航飞机重着陆事件发生的规律,基于SHELL模型识别了飞机重着陆事件的风险致因,并基于专家打分法得到各风险致因的可能性和严重度值;最后,基于熵权TOPSIS方法对风险致因进行排序。结果表明:左座驾驶员过度放手、低空风切变的影响、机组对特殊情况的应急反应不当是导致飞机重着陆事件发生的主要原因;其次是机组盲目自信、机组疏忽失误、机组对落地机场环境准备不充分、排班时间不合理。展开更多
A"once-in-a-millennium"super rainstorm battered Zhengzhou,central China,from 07/17/2021 to 07/22/2021(named"7.20"Zhengzhou rainstorm).It killed 398 people and caused billions of dollars in damage.A...A"once-in-a-millennium"super rainstorm battered Zhengzhou,central China,from 07/17/2021 to 07/22/2021(named"7.20"Zhengzhou rainstorm).It killed 398 people and caused billions of dollars in damage.A pressing question is whether rainstorms of this intensity can be effectively documented by geological archives to understand better their historical variabilities beyond the range of meteorological data.Here,four land snail shells were collected from Zhengzhou,and weekly to daily resolved snail shellδ^(18)O records from June to September of 2021 were obtained by gas-source mass spectrometry and secondary ion mass spectrometry.The daily resolved records show a dramatic negative shift between 06/18/2021 and 09/18/2021,which has been attributed to the"7.20"Zhengzhou rainstorm.Moreover,the measured amplitude of this shift is consistent with the theoretical value estimated from the flux balance model and instrumental data for the"7.20"Zhengzhou rainstorm.Our results suggest that the ultra-high resolutionδ^(18)O of land snail shells have the potential to reconstruct local synoptic scale rainstorms quantitatively,and thus fossil snail shells in sedimentary strata can be valuable material for investigating the historical variability of local rainstorms under different climate backgrounds.展开更多
文摘为研究民航飞机重着陆事件风险,提出一种基于熵权TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)的飞机重着陆事件风险因素排序方法。首先,分析了近年来中国民航飞机重着陆事件发生的规律,基于SHELL模型识别了飞机重着陆事件的风险致因,并基于专家打分法得到各风险致因的可能性和严重度值;最后,基于熵权TOPSIS方法对风险致因进行排序。结果表明:左座驾驶员过度放手、低空风切变的影响、机组对特殊情况的应急反应不当是导致飞机重着陆事件发生的主要原因;其次是机组盲目自信、机组疏忽失误、机组对落地机场环境准备不充分、排班时间不合理。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42221003,4202530442103084)the Research Projects from the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDB40000000)+1 种基金the Science and Technology Innovation Project of Laoshan Laboratory(LSKJ202203300)the CAS Youth Interdisciplinary Team。
文摘A"once-in-a-millennium"super rainstorm battered Zhengzhou,central China,from 07/17/2021 to 07/22/2021(named"7.20"Zhengzhou rainstorm).It killed 398 people and caused billions of dollars in damage.A pressing question is whether rainstorms of this intensity can be effectively documented by geological archives to understand better their historical variabilities beyond the range of meteorological data.Here,four land snail shells were collected from Zhengzhou,and weekly to daily resolved snail shellδ^(18)O records from June to September of 2021 were obtained by gas-source mass spectrometry and secondary ion mass spectrometry.The daily resolved records show a dramatic negative shift between 06/18/2021 and 09/18/2021,which has been attributed to the"7.20"Zhengzhou rainstorm.Moreover,the measured amplitude of this shift is consistent with the theoretical value estimated from the flux balance model and instrumental data for the"7.20"Zhengzhou rainstorm.Our results suggest that the ultra-high resolutionδ^(18)O of land snail shells have the potential to reconstruct local synoptic scale rainstorms quantitatively,and thus fossil snail shells in sedimentary strata can be valuable material for investigating the historical variability of local rainstorms under different climate backgrounds.
