Models for Analyzing the Driving Force of Cultivated Land Supply Change

This paper focuses on a series of quantitative an al ysis models, such as grey relational analysis model, hierarchical cluster an alysis model, principal component analysis model, linear regression model and elastic coefficient model. These models are used to analyze the comprehensive function and effect of driving forces systemically, including analysis on featur es, analysis for differentiating the primary and the secondary, analysis on comp rehensive effects, analysis of elasticity, analysis of prediction. The primary a nd characteristic factors can be extracted by analysis of features and analysis for differentiating the primary and the secondary. Analysis on prediction an d elasticity can predict the area of cultivated land in the future and find out which factors exert great influence on the cultivated land supply.

Interaction of Land Demand and Supply Effects in Intensive Land Use: a Simulation Study for Chengdu,China

Intensive land use( ILU) policies affect the demand and supply of land. These policies promote efficient land use, and demands for land must therefore be evaluated in terms of the level of land-use intensity. If the demand is considered excessive, ILU policies act like a "valve"to restrict the land supply. Drawing on data from Chengdu,China,where developable land is scarce,we construct a model using system dynamics( SD) to simulate two scenarios: ILU development and non-ILU development. The results show that when ILU leads to positive land-use efficiency,land supply will exceed demand,resulting in an appropriate level of real demand for the current population level and GDP. Thus,artificial demand( inflated by investors) is reduced. By contrast,when non-ILU leads to negative land-use efficiency,land demand will exceed supply. In this scenario,artificial demand is higher than real demand.

Land Use Allocation Based on Interval Multi-objective Linear Programming Model: A Case Study of Pi County in Sichuan Province

Adjusting and optimizing land use structure is one of the essential approaches to solve the conflict between land supply and demand. In this study,an uncertain interval multi-objective linear programming model was established and applied to analyzing the suitability of land use structure in Pi County of Sichuan Province. An adjustment scheme for optimizing land use structure was proposed on the basis of development planning drawn up by the local government. The results are summarized as follows: 1) the optimal adjustment scope for cropland area ranges from 27 976.75 ha to 31 029.08 ha,and the current area is less than the lower limit of the scope; 2) the optimal adjustment scope for garden land area ranges from 4 736.49 ha to 12 967.11 ha,and the current area is less than the lower limit; 3) the optimal adjustment scope for construction land ranges from 7 761.95 ha to 10 393.18 ha,and the current area is greater than the upper limit; 4) the optimal adjustment scope for industry and mining land ranges from 557.29 ha to 693.54 ha,and the current area exceeds the upper limit; and 5) the areas of forest land,grassland and other agricultural land are within the optimal adjustment scope. In order to maximize comprehensive benefit with the limited resources and the demand of sustainable development,the areas of cropland and garden land are supposed to be expanded properly,while the construction land should be controlled and reduced gradually,and the forest land and other agricultural land can be maintained at the current level in short period.

SUSTAINABLE LAND USE PLANNING BASED ON ECOLOGICAL HEALTH——Case Study of Beiwenquan Town, Chongqing, China

This paper, taking Beiwenquan Town of Beibei, Chongqing as an example, assessed the impacts of land use on ecological health by comprehensive index method, and discussed methodological system of sustainable land use planning based on ecological health. Results indicated that: 1) From 1992 to 2002, land use changes focused on 12 patterns with the total conversion area of 92.11%, which were related to cultivated land, residential and industrial-mining area, and orchard land. Urbanization and economic reconstruction were the leading driving forces. 2) There was obvious difference of the areas of ecotypes driven by land use change in wide valley and mild slope between 1992 and 2002, while there were little or no difference in steep slope and very steep slope. 3) Both of the conditions of ecological health in 1992 and 2002 were sound, and the ecotypes focused on the types of health and sub-health. But, health ecosystem in 1992, with an area of 764.64ha, accounting for 38.51% of the total evaluation area, was better than that in 2002, with an area of 636.10ha, accounting for 34.19% of the total evaluation area. 4) The ecotypes involved into different ranges have already degenerated, due to humankind’s disturbance, while the conditions of ecological health in the same ranges in 1992, regardless of stability and reconstruction, were better than that in 2002. 5) The planning scenario based on ecological health was accorded with the practice condition of Beiwenquan Town: 388.29ha of cultivated land could meet the Beiwenquan demand of food and byproduct; 1045.26ha of forest land area, the Beiwenquan demand of ecological health; and 1004.73ha of the residential and industrial-mining area, the Beiwenquan building demand. 6) Sustainable land use planning based on ecological health had higher useful value, because it not only stood to ecological theory, but also satisfied the developmental demand of society and economy.

Impact of Chinese Local Government-led Construction Land Supply Strategies on Urban Innovation and its Spatiotemporal Differences

This study constructs a theoretical framework to analyze the impact of local governmentled construction land supply(LGCLS)strategies on urban innovation.It uses data related to 265 cities in China from 2005 to 2019 for empirical analysis.Its conclusions are as follows.For development stage differences,the impact of LGCLS strategies on urban innovation exhibited an inverted U shape with economic growth.The inflection point occurred when the per capita GDP equaled approximately RMB23,101 in 2008.For regional diferences,the inflection point in eastern China is higher and earlier than that in central and western China;before the inflection point,the positive infuence was more obvious in the central and western regions,whereas after the inflection point,the negative influence was more obvious in the eastern region.For the eastern Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations and the northwestern resource-based urban agglomerations with relatively high per capita GDP,the negative impact of LGCLS strategies on urban innovation occurred earlier and showed spatial agglomeration characteristics.

A Preliminary Analysis of Land Resource Constraints on Urban Expansion of Beijing Based on Land Supply and Demand

Land resources not only provide support for urban development, but play a feedback and restricting role in unregulated urban growth. Taking Beijing City as an example, this paper analyzes supply and demand relationships and upper limits for the growth of land resources during the process of urban development. By analyzing dominant factors and trends in the demand for land resources, this paper gives preliminary estimates on the minimum size of the land demand in Beijing in view of constructing a World City. According to the basic characteristics of supply and demand relationships for land, current land use in Beijing is confronting a grim situation of conflict between supply and demand. We also point out maximum growth and three types of constraints on land resources. Last, we propose solutions to resource and environmental bottlenecks, and urban disease amid urban development.

Examining the Impacts of Land Supply on Housing Price in Chinese Mega Cities: An Analysis of Prefecture-Level Cities in China from 2009 to 2016

Residential land supply is considered a powerful tool for intervening in the housing market in China. There has been continuous debate on the correlation between residential land supply and housing prices. Based on 35 Chinese prefecture-level cities’ panel data from 2009 to 2016, this study investigates the spatio-temporal characteristics of residential land supply and housing prices, and explores their relationship applying Generalized Moment Models(GMM). The results show that(1) there is an overall downward trend in residential land supply and a significant rise in housing prices in most Chinese mega cities from 2009 to 2016, and the extent varies in four economic-geographical regions;(2) the decrease in the quantity of residential land supply contributes to the rise in housing prices to some degree, but there is no significant correlation between the land supply structure and housing prices. With the integration of socio-economic factors, the quantitative results validate the previous theoretical models of the casual correlation between residential land supply and housing prices. It further depicts the constraint of insufficient residential land supply in Chinese mega cities and claims it to be a contributor of rising housing prices. The paper concludes with implications for housing strategies and future studies.

Government L and Regulations and Housing Supply Elasticity in Urban China

This paper studies the effects of government land regulations(GLR)on housing supply elasticity in urban China.We first extend the theoretical framework of Saiz(2010),then use land transaction microdata,satellite-generated data,and the construction of instrumental variables to analyze the marginal effect of GLR,and finally calculate the housing supply elasticity caused by GLR.Our analysis finds that GLR is an important reason for the overall inelasticity of housing supply in 272 Chinese cities,which reduces housing supply elasticity from 1.457(elastic)to 0.872(inelastic).Housing supply elasticity caused by GLR has declined the most in first-tier cities and the eastern regions.The marginal effect of land use regulation is greater than that of land allocation and supp!y regulations.The initial development level and natural geographic constraint of each city also matter in China's housing supply market.

The Environmental Consequences of Place-Based Policies in China:An Empirical Study Based on SO_(2)Emission Data

Previous studies of place-based policies in China have ignored their effect on pollution.Using event study and difference-in-differences methodologies,we investigated the consequences of place-based policies on sulfur dioxide(SO_(2))emissions.We first documented the increase in SO_(2)emissions and SO_(2)emission intensity in the inland region after 2003 at the provincial level.The firm-level data for the period between 1998 and 2010 also showed that the performance of enterprises in noneastern regions in reducing SO_(2)emissions had worsened relatively since 2003,and this effect was particularly strong in enterprises located in central and northeast China,where urban land supply experienced significant growth after 2003.We found that,compared with environmental regulation changes,inland region-biased economic policies after 2003 were more important in explaining the relative changes in SO_(2)emissions between coastal and inland regions.The policy implication is that the central government should address environmental consequences when designing place-based economic policies.