Models for Analyzing the Driving Force of Cultivated Land Supply Change

This paper focuses on a series of quantitative an al ysis models, such as grey relational analysis model, hierarchical cluster an alysis model, principal component analysis model, linear regression model and elastic coefficient model. These models are used to analyze the comprehensive function and effect of driving forces systemically, including analysis on featur es, analysis for differentiating the primary and the secondary, analysis on comp rehensive effects, analysis of elasticity, analysis of prediction. The primary a nd characteristic factors can be extracted by analysis of features and analysis for differentiating the primary and the secondary. Analysis on prediction an d elasticity can predict the area of cultivated land in the future and find out which factors exert great influence on the cultivated land supply.

On the Transmission Mechanism of the Chinese Land Policy in Macroeconomic-control: A Theoretical Study Based on Modified IS-LM Model

The purposes of this paper are to bring land factor into the general fame of national product and develop a new modified‘IS-LM equilibrium model',aiming to find out the impacts of land factor on the effective allocation of capital between total supply and total demand constituting gross national product,to analyze the relation mechanism among land factor and macroeconomic variables,and to discuss the theoretical mechanism under which land,fiscal and monetary policy are integrated. Methods employed include econometrics and model analysis. The results indicate that:( i) on the conditions that the equilibrium of supply and demand in land market,the modified IS-LM model taking into account land factor successfully performs transmission mechanism of land policy participation in macroeconomic-control by means of money capital regulation;( ii) the direction and intensity of land policy control are effected by elasticity of land supply and land price,meanwhile different characteristics of land supply elasticity exit in different stages of economic development;( iii) the realization of IS-LM equilibrium requires the aggregate effects of fiscal,monetary and land policy. It is concluded that land policies for macroeconomic-control drives land price higher,and land supply regulation would diminish financial effect. During the economic expansion or recovery period,the effect of expansionary land policy would be counteracted by high land price. During the economic transition or recession period,the government could control economical operation better through tightening land policy.

Innovate the Land Supply Pattern and Stabilize the Housing

In the process of building a harmonious socialist society, the protection of people＇ s livelihood is the priority, and to solve the housing problem of over one billion residents is the top priority. The present thesis begins with the land supply mechanism, and do researches on the style, the source and the type of land supply. With the analysis of land finance, the present thesis finally put forward the measures to innovate the land supply pattern, to increase the supply of low-income housing, to reform the way of land supply and to explore the circulating pattern of normative collective construction land that comes to is on the market. Meanwhile, it combines the present house property tax reform, putting forward the idea that imposing land property tax should be a way to inhibit the behavior of speculation. The present thesis aims at keeping the housing price at a reasonable level so that the purpose of stabilizing the housing price can he achieved.

A Preliminary Analysis of Land Resource Constraints on Urban Expansion of Beijing Based on Land Supply and Demand

Land resources not only provide support for urban development, but play a feedback and restricting role in unregulated urban growth. Taking Beijing City as an example, this paper analyzes supply and demand relationships and upper limits for the growth of land resources during the process of urban development. By analyzing dominant factors and trends in the demand for land resources, this paper gives preliminary estimates on the minimum size of the land demand in Beijing in view of constructing a World City. According to the basic characteristics of supply and demand relationships for land, current land use in Beijing is confronting a grim situation of conflict between supply and demand. We also point out maximum growth and three types of constraints on land resources. Last, we propose solutions to resource and environmental bottlenecks, and urban disease amid urban development.

Impact of Chinese Local Government-led Construction Land Supply Strategies on Urban Innovation and its Spatiotemporal Differences

This study constructs a theoretical framework to analyze the impact of local governmentled construction land supply(LGCLS)strategies on urban innovation.It uses data related to 265 cities in China from 2005 to 2019 for empirical analysis.Its conclusions are as follows.For development stage differences,the impact of LGCLS strategies on urban innovation exhibited an inverted U shape with economic growth.The inflection point occurred when the per capita GDP equaled approximately RMB23,101 in 2008.For regional diferences,the inflection point in eastern China is higher and earlier than that in central and western China;before the inflection point,the positive infuence was more obvious in the central and western regions,whereas after the inflection point,the negative influence was more obvious in the eastern region.For the eastern Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations and the northwestern resource-based urban agglomerations with relatively high per capita GDP,the negative impact of LGCLS strategies on urban innovation occurred earlier and showed spatial agglomeration characteristics.

Examining the Impacts of Land Supply on Housing Price in Chinese Mega Cities: An Analysis of Prefecture-Level Cities in China from 2009 to 2016

Residential land supply is considered a powerful tool for intervening in the housing market in China. There has been continuous debate on the correlation between residential land supply and housing prices. Based on 35 Chinese prefecture-level cities’ panel data from 2009 to 2016, this study investigates the spatio-temporal characteristics of residential land supply and housing prices, and explores their relationship applying Generalized Moment Models(GMM). The results show that(1) there is an overall downward trend in residential land supply and a significant rise in housing prices in most Chinese mega cities from 2009 to 2016, and the extent varies in four economic-geographical regions;(2) the decrease in the quantity of residential land supply contributes to the rise in housing prices to some degree, but there is no significant correlation between the land supply structure and housing prices. With the integration of socio-economic factors, the quantitative results validate the previous theoretical models of the casual correlation between residential land supply and housing prices. It further depicts the constraint of insufficient residential land supply in Chinese mega cities and claims it to be a contributor of rising housing prices. The paper concludes with implications for housing strategies and future studies.

基于Landsat影像的雄安新区2013−2021年土地利用变化检测和生态政策评估

利用2013−2021年共9期Landsat8影像,采用面向对象的监督分类方法,得到新区逐年土地利用与覆盖分类结果,进行LUCC分析及生态品质评价.结论:1)分类结果总体精度>86.8%,K为0.81~0.88,优于同期FROM-GLC及GLC_FCS全球分类产品;2)雄安新区设立至今耕地面积减少,不透水面和林地面积增长,蓝绿空间面积占比由12%增加至30%,雄安3县(雄县、容城县和安新县)建设严格遵循了新区《规划纲要》中植树造林、城市发展、湿地涵养3项不同的建设任务,各县主要土地利用覆盖变化分别为耕地向林地的转变、耕地与不透水面的相互转变以及耕地向水体和水生植被的转变;3)不透水面扩张与城市建设对生态品质的负面影响正逐步被森林覆盖率、蓝绿空间面积增加带来的正面影响所抵消.总体看,雄安新区土地利用/覆盖变化遵循新区规划要求,体现了经济社会发展和生态建设的成果.

Analog simulation of urban construction land supply and demand in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration based on land intensive use

Urban land intensive use is an important indicator in harmonizing the relationship between land supply and demand. The system dynamics(SD) can be used to construct the feedback loop between urban construction land supply and demand and index variable function. Based on this, this study built a supply and demand system dynamic model of urban construction land for Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration. This model can simulate the change trends of supply and demand of construction land, industrial land, and residential land in 2016–2030 by three scenarios of low, medium, and high intensity modes. The results showed that the scale of construction land of urban agglomeration is expanding, with a rapid increase rate for the urban construction land. The scale and speed of land use based on the three intensity modes existed differences. The large scale and supply of construction land in the low intensity mode caused easily the waste of land resources. In high intensity mode, the scale and supply of construction land were reduced against the healthy development of new-type urbanization. In the medium intensity mode, the scale and supply of land use adapted to the socio-economic development and at the same time reflected the concept of modern urban development. In addition, the results of this study found that the proportion of industrial land in construction land ranged from 15% to 21%, which increased year by year in the low intensity mode, and decreased slowly and stabilized in medium and high intensity modes. The proportion of residential land in construction land ranged from 27% to 35%, which decreased in the low and the medium intensity modes, and maintained a high level in the higher intensity mode. This study contributes to provide scientific reference for decision-making optimization of land supply and demand, urban planning, and land supply-side reform.

Characteristics of Steep Cultivated Land and the Impact of the Grain-for-Green Policy in China

The Grain-for-Green Policy in China could not only improve China＇s ecological quality, but also influence grain supplies for a short term. Based on data from the detailed nationwide land use survey in 1996 and the steep cultivated land survey update in 2000, a regression model for the driving forces affecting steep cultivated lands was developed, and cluster analysis was used to identify seven steep cultivated land types in order to analyze the grain availability impact of the project with land usage estimates for 2010 and 2030. The results suggested that consecutive days with minimum daily temperature over 10 ℃ and the dominant slope in a county constrained the spatial distribution of steep cultivated lands. In terms of socioeconomic factors, steep cultivated land was a complex interaction of population size, gross domestic production level, and the richness and quality of cultivated lands having slopes less then 15°. The trends for steep cultivated land in 2010 and 2030 were forecast using a driving forces model and China＇s grain security criteria and showed that the Grain-for-Green Policy at the national level would not cause a grain shortage or threaten food security criteria. However, if steep sloped lands were to be retired from production, some regions would need grain supplements as early as 2010. Also, assuming that only 60% of the cultivated land at the national level was needed, population and economic development pressures in 2030 would require some steep cultivated lands to be used for grain production.

Land Use/Cover Change and Its Policy Implications in Typical Agriculture-forest Ecotone of Central Jilin Province,China

During the 21st century,policies toward agriculture,forestry,and urbanization have emerged to ensure food security,ecological restoration,and human well-being by managing land in Northeast China.However,the integrated effects and relationships of various policies are still not well understood.This study observed the land use land cover changes in Central Jilin from 2000 to 2019 and,by considering policy involvement,aimed to understand the effects and trade-offs of policies.Results showed that the cropland,including dryland and rice paddy,and the forest,including coniferous forest and deciduous forest,are dominant land types in Central Jilin.During 2000–2019,the land changed diversely,of which the main changes were the expanded dryland(+0.43 million ha),the increased deciduous forest(+22 million ha),the decreased coniferous forest(–0.08 million ha),and the expanded urban settlement(+0.04 million ha).With these changes,despite the unit grain yield showing a rising trend,the yield contribution of Central Jilin to the national total decreased.The poor cultivating structure made for the cropland expansion and reduced the implementation space of environmental restoration projects such as the Grain to Green.Thus,in Central Jilin that transits from the agri-food production zone to the eco-regulation zone,environmental projects coexisted in a trade-off manner with agricultural policies that aim to liberate agricultural productivity.In the key urban agglomerations of Central Jilin,the increase in the proportion of green space improved the thermal environment and carbon balance.The gross domestic product of the large city and its local proportion also rose.These improvements benefited from the promotion of development policies and urbanization policies at key time points.In the future,it is necessary to coordinate agricultural policies and environmental projects and promote the progress of small-and medium-sized cities to ensure the equality of regional development.This study has implications for making decisions to revitalize Northeast China and researchers who inform decisions.

Rural collective construction land use in China: Policy issues and options

Land policy in China has been changed dramatically in the past two decades. Though the reform of rural farm land and the urban construction land has been launched successively, little has been done about the rural construction land by now, which has made a negative impact to the land utilization. This paper fi rst reviews the policy terms about the rural construction land, then gives a brief critique on them under the background of social-economic transformation in China, and discusses the driving forces and implications of institutional changes in the end. We think the further reform on the rural collective construction land is imperative. Firstly, as a production factor, it should be endowed with property attribute, and secondly the use right of rural construction land should be separated from its ownership so that it can be transacted in a competitive market, which will benefi t the building of harmonious society.

The role of land as the central piece to sustainable food systems:Lessons learned from Portugal national food-related policies

This paper discusses to what extent land is considered in food-related policies from a systemic perspective.Based on existing literature and international agendas priorities,we argue that access to and preservation of land for food along the food chain play a major role in sustainable food systems.To further explore this argument,we address the following question:Where does land stand in sectorial and national food-related policies?The mul-tiple dimensions and implications of food systems and the international agenda’s priorities namely the“Right to adequate Food”,“Food Sovereignty”and the“Right to Land”,were used as our conceptual framework.To work out how land is being considered in food sectorial policies,both quantitative and qualitative methods were applied to examine ten Portuguese national food-related policies.Results are showing a lack of consideration for land access and land preservation,needed all along the food chain to build a national sustainable food system.On the other hand,there is a gap between current grassroots priorities international agendas and food-related national policies.Such a situation strongly suggests that building a sustainable food system needs a clear food territorial perspective,still neglected,and shifting from sectorial policies towards a more integrated food system approach,that will include land as a central piece.

Optimization and Regulation Policy for Land Use Changes Based on Low-carbon Emission in Developed Regions of China

Land use and cover change(LUCC) is one of the important causes of the Earth’s carbon cycle imbalances resulting from failure in optimizing land use. The solution to this problem has been the hotspot of research in land and environmental science. We took 'low carbon', 'energy saving' and 'high-efficiency' as the goals of land use optimization,and integrated Markov-CA(Cellular Automaton),the Grid-Fractal model and GIS,in order to study carbon emission objective function,to establish a simulation method for land use spatial allocation optimization,to evaluate the effect of the method on carbon emissions. Regulation policy on three types of land use spatial allocation was proposed,including 'low-carbon type', 'low-carbon-economic type' and 'economic type'. We applied the method to analyze the land use spatial allocation in Taixing City of the 'Yangtze River Delta' regions in China,and obtained the following results:(i) The three optimization types would improve carbon emissions by 3. 21%,1. 80% and 0. 36% respectively in 2020,compared with 2010;(ii) The actual planning for 2020 was close to the 'low-carbon-economic type';(iii) The optimization method and regulation policy,combining local optimization and global control,could meet the sustainable multi-objective requirements for low-carbon constraints of land use spatial allocation. The result of this research could also serve as a reference for exploration into patterns of regional low-carbon land use and measures for energy saving and emission reduction.

Mortgage of Land Management Right in the Rural Area Under the Policy Context

The aim of this study is to explore the necessity to consider the specialty of policy context in ethnic minority area during the policymaking process.Case analysis is applied to study the policy context in microscopic aspect.The information came from two sources:questionnaires or phone calls,and related documents.Study suggested that the mortgage of land management lies in the negligence of temporal dynamic balance when it comes to the mastering of policy context.Optimal plan of method design was given in the end of this paper.

Visualizing Relationships between Drivers of Environmental Change and Pressures on Land-Based Ecosystems

The pursuit of human needs and demands is placing more pressure on land resources than ever before. The challenge of feeding 7 billion people is increasingly competing with rising demands for materials and biofuels. Deforestation and land degradation are among the pressing outcomes of these trends. Drivers of environmental change—including population growth, economic activity, consumption, urbanization, trade, conflict, and governance—clearly play a role in aggravating or mitigating these pressures on land. Despite advances in understanding causality in complex systems, navigating the interactions between these drivers remains a major challenge. This paper analyzes and visualizes the relationships between multiple, interacting drivers of environmental change and specific pressures on land-based ecosystems. Drawing on experience from the development of the Drivers and Land chapters of the UN Environment Programme’s Fifth Global Environment Outlook report (GEO-5), we use a series of Kiviat diagrams to illustrate the relative influence of key drivers on selected pressures on land. When individual diagrams are overlaid, patterns of influence emerge that can provide insight into where policy responses might best be targeted. We propose that, subject to some limitations, the Kiviat exercise can provide an accessible and potentially valuable “knowledge-intermediary” tool to help link science-based information to policy action.

Cultivated-land change in Mu Us Sandy Land of China before and after the first-stage grain-for-green policy

Mu Us Sandy Land(MUSL) of China, as a typical eco-fragile and farming-pastoral transitional region, shows great vulnerability to disturbances from cultivation activity. In this region, the conflict between cultivation activity and environmental protection has not attracted great importance until the implementation of China's Grain-for-Green Policy(CGGP) since2000. Here, using Landsat5 TM/Landsat7 ETM+ images from 1990, 2000, and 2010, we monitor the cultivation activity and land-use/cover changes(LUCC) resulting from cultivation activity in the MUSL region. Based on the data from images, we developed a series of databases of cultivated activity-induced LUCC and use them to discuss comparatively the spatio-temporal evolution trends of cultivation activity before and after CGGP implementation. These results provide evidence for managers to evaluate the implementation effectiveness of governmental policy and the influence of cultivation activity on the ecological environment of the MUSL region.

LAND SUPPLY AND HOUSING PRICE:THE CASE IN HONG KONG

In this study we examine the relationship between land supply and housing price, percentage of land premium in the total government revenue and housing price, with reference to Hong Kong from 1981 to 1994. To do this we employ the Granger causality method to test the underlying hypothesis whether Hong Kong Government adopt high land-price policy. We use the first difference of data to ensure the stationarity in time series with the help of augmented Dick-Fuller unit root test. The results of the paper suggest no strong evidence to support the view that the land control of the government has caused soaringly rising housing prices. The findings also apparently implicate that the government has the revenue-maximizing behavior which is consistent with efficient allocation of resources.

Interaction of Land Demand and Supply Effects in Intensive Land Use: a Simulation Study for Chengdu,China

Intensive land use( ILU) policies affect the demand and supply of land. These policies promote efficient land use, and demands for land must therefore be evaluated in terms of the level of land-use intensity. If the demand is considered excessive, ILU policies act like a "valve"to restrict the land supply. Drawing on data from Chengdu,China,where developable land is scarce,we construct a model using system dynamics( SD) to simulate two scenarios: ILU development and non-ILU development. The results show that when ILU leads to positive land-use efficiency,land supply will exceed demand,resulting in an appropriate level of real demand for the current population level and GDP. Thus,artificial demand( inflated by investors) is reduced. By contrast,when non-ILU leads to negative land-use efficiency,land demand will exceed supply. In this scenario,artificial demand is higher than real demand.

Dynamic Spatial Evolution of Market-oriented Supply Level of State-owned Land

The purpose of this study is to analyze the characteristics of the spatial distribution and change trend of the marketing level of stateowned land supply so as to provide policy recommendations. Method of spatial autocorrelation analysis is employed. The results indicate that the spatial layout of the land supply marketing level is generally dispersed,but it does assemble in some specific area. The correlation between the marketing level of state-owned land supply and the economic development is not statistically significant. But their relations fluctuate obviously. The overall marketing level of state-owned land supply is increasing and spatially concentrated. The expansion rate of marketing has decreased first and then increased and stabilized now. The high-value cluster center of marketing level of state-owned land supply exists all over the country; however the existence probability of the cluster is bigger in undeveloped areas. It is concluded that spatial autocorrelation analysis is a good method to quantitatively analyze the spatial variation of marketing level of state-owned land supply in China. To grasp the spatial and temporal variations of the marketing level of state-owned land supply is also good to enhance running of the state-owned land market.

Dilemma for the Redevelopment of Village and Town Construction Land, Formation Mechanism and Policy Suggestions

Under the context of economy new normal and rapid urbanization, the shift of economic growth, structural adjustment pains as well as pre-stimulus digestion comes coincidentally. The boundary red line of urban growth, the red line of the number of basic farms and the ecology red line makes the local to conserve land. Land stock for village and town construction is a huge amount of potential resources. Redevelopment of land for village and town construction provides ensured land security for the smooth progress of urbanization. Combining village and town construction land use characteristics and making in-depth analysis of the difficulties in the redevelopment of village and town construction and its inner mechanism, policies and suggestions were proposed for the redevelopment of village and town construction land in terms of land property, land price, market allocation, planning, surveillance and so on, so as to provide valuable reference for the smooth redevelopment of village and town construction land, and the system design of villages and towns.