Impacts of multi-scenario land use change on ecosystem services and ecological security pattern: A case study of the Yellow River Delta

The Yellow River Delta(YRD), a critical economic zone along China's eastern coast, also functions as a vital ecological reserve in the lower Yellow River. Amidst rapid industrialization and urbanization, the region has witnessed significant land use/cover changes(LUCC), impacting ecosystem services(ES) and ecological security patterns(ESP). Investigating LUCC's effects on ES and ESP in the YRD is crucial for ecological security and sustainable development. This study utilized the PLUS model to simulate 2030 land use scenarios, including natural development(NDS), economic development(EDS), and ecological protection scenarios(EPS). Subsequently, the InVEST model and circuit theory were applied to assess ES and ESP under varying LUCC scenarios from 2010 to 2030. Findings indicate:(1) Notable LUCC from 2010 to 2030, marked by decreasing cropland and increasing construction land and water bodies.(2) From 2010 to 2020, improvements were observed in carbon storage,water yield, soil retention, and habitat quality, whereas 2020–2030 saw increases in water yield and soil retention but declines in habitat quality and carbon storage. Among the scenarios, EPS showed superior performance in all four ES.(3) Between 2010 and 2030, ecological sources, corridors, and pinchpoints expanded, displaying significant spatial heterogeneity. The EPS scenario yielded the most substantial increases in ecological sources,corridors, and pinchpoints, totaling 582.89 km^(2), 645.03 km^(2),and 64.43 km^(2), respectively. This study highlights the importance of EPS, offering insightful scientific guidance for the YRD's sustainable development.

Optimization of water-urban-agricultural-ecological land use pattern:A case study of Guanzhong Basin in the southern Loess Plateau of Shaanxi Province,China

Extensive land use will cause many environmental problems.It is an urgent task to improve land use efficiency and optimize land use patterns.In recent years,due to the flow decrease,the Guanzhong Basin in Shaanxi Province is confronted with the problem of insufficient water resources reserve.Based on the Coupled Ground-Water and Surface-Water Flow Model(GSFLOW),this paper evaluates the response of water resources in the basin to changes in land use patterns,optimizes the land use pattern,improves the ecological and economic benefits,and the efficiency of various spatial development,providing a reference for ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.The research shows that the land use pattern in the Guanzhong Basin should be further optimized.Under the condition of considering ecological and economic development,the percentage change of the optimum area of farmland,forest,grassland,water area,and urban area compared with the current land use area ratio is+2.3,+2.4,-6.1,+0.2,and+1.6,respectively.The economic and ecological value of land increases by14.1%and 3.1%,respectively,and the number of water resources can increase by 2.5%.

Landscape ecological risk assessment and its driving factors in the Weihe River basin,China

Weihe River basin is of great significance to analyze the changes of land use pattern and landscape ecological risk and to improve the ecological basis of regional development.Based on land use data of the Weihe River basin in 2000,2010,and 2020,with the support of Aeronautical Reconnaissance Coverage Geographic Information System(ArcGIS),GeoDa,and other technologies,this study analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics and driving factors of land use pattern and landscape ecological risk.Results showed that land use structure of the Weihe River basin has changed significantly,with the decrease of cropland and the increase of forest land and construction land.In the past 20 a,cropland has decreased by 7347.70 km2,and cropland was mainly converted into forest land,grassland,and construction land.The fragmentation and dispersion of ecological landscape pattern in the Weihe River basin were improved,and land use pattern became more concentrated.Meanwhile,landscape ecological risk of the Weihe River basin has been improved.Severe landscape ecological risk area decreased by 19,177.87 km2,high landscape ecological risk area decreased by 3904.35 km2,and moderate and low landscape ecological risk areas continued to increase.It is worth noting that landscape ecological risks in the upper reaches of the Weihe River basin are still relatively serious,especially in the contiguous areas of high ecological risk,such as Tianshui,Pingliang,Dingxi areas and some areas of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.Landscape ecological risk showed obvious spatial dependence,and high ecological risk area was concentrated.Among the driving factors,population density,precipitation,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),and their interactions are the most important factors affecting the landscape ecological risk of the Weihe River basin.The findings significantly contribute to our understanding of the ecological dynamics in the Weihe River basin,providing crucial insights for sustainable management in the region.

Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of land use/land cover(LULC)changes in the Jinghe River Basin,China

Understanding the trajectories and driving mechanisms behind land use/land cover(LULC)changes is essential for effective watershed planning and management.This study quantified the net change,exchange,total change,and transfer rate of LULC in the Jinghe River Basin(JRB),China using LULC data from 2000 to 2020.Through trajectory analysis,knowledge maps,chord diagrams,and standard deviation ellipse method,we examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of LULC changes.We further established an index system encompassing natural factors(digital elevation model(DEM),slope,aspect,and curvature),socio-economic factors(gross domestic product(GDP)and population),and accessibility factors(distance from railways,distance from highways,distance from water,and distance from residents)to investigate the driving mechanisms of LULC changes using factor detector and interaction detector in the geographical detector(Geodetector).The key findings indicate that from 2000 to 2020,the JRB experienced significant LULC changes,particularly for farmland,forest,and grassland.During the study period,LULC change trajectories were categorized into stable,early-stage,late-stage,repeated,and continuous change types.Besides the stable change type,the late-stage change type predominated the LULC change trajectories,comprising 83.31% of the total change area.The period 2010-2020 witnessed more active LULC changes compared to the period 2000-2010.The LULC changes exhibited a discrete spatial expansion trend during 2000-2020,predominantly extending from southeast to northwest of the JRB.Influential driving factors on LULC changes included slope,GDP,and distance from highways.The interaction detection results imply either bilinear or nonlinear enhancement for any two driving factors impacting the LULC changes from 2000 to 2020.This comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of LULC changes offers valuable insights for the planning and sustainable management of LULC in the JRB.

Effects of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Services in Arid Area Ecological Migration

Ecological migration is the process of increasing the population density in the immigration area and transferring the ecological pressure from emigration area to immigration area. This process may result in significant changes in land use and land cover in the area of immigration and have an important effect on ecosystem services. Therefore, scientifically revealing the effects and differentiation mechanisms of ecological migration on ecosystem services is becoming an important issue related to the implementation of the national ecological migration strategy in China. This study employed the Hongsibu District as a typical example of ecological migration. Hongsibu District is located in the central Ningxia steppe and desert steppe areas. Remote sensing data covering five periods from the period before ecological migration in 1995 and after migration in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 was used to measure the value of ecosystem services(ESV). A geographical detector model and the value of ecosystem services model were used to diagnose the dynamic mechanism of the effects of land use change on ecosystem services. The results showed that: 1) The development of large-scale ecological resettlement has caused the area of cultivated land and urbanized land area to increase significantly in the area of immigration, while the grass area decreased significantly. 2) The overall value of the Hongsibu ecosystem services increased in a form of a ‘V'. Among them, during the period of 1995–2005, the overall ESV decreased and had an annual rate of change of-0.67%. During the period of development 2005–2015, the ESV increased steadily, with an annual rate of change of 0.79%. 3) The proportion and total ESV in soil formation and protection, waste treatment, and biodiversity conservation of the Hongsibu District decreased from 57.61% in 1995 to 56.17% in 2015, indicating that the region's ecological regulation function slightly decreased. 4) The ESV in the Hongsibu District, showed a low distribution pattern of ecosystem services increasing from northeast to southwest, and the capacity of three townships, Hongsibu, Taiyangshan, and Liuquan, to provide ecosystem services gradually declined over time. The ecological service function of Xinzhuangji Township and Dahe Township gradually improved. 5) The sensitivity index of the ESV of each land use type was less than 1, indicating that the environment lacks flexibility in providing a strong ESV index in Hongsibu, which shows that the research results are reliable and believable. 6) During the study period, the decisive force of the change of land use on ecosystem services in Hongsibu District was: grassland(0.9934), climate regulation(0.9413), soil formation and protection(0.9321) and waste treatment(0.9241).

Geospatial Evaluation for Ecological Watershed Management II: Changes in Land Use—Land Cover Influence on Ecosystems Services

Ecosystem services are a key to human survival and global sustainability. Consequently, there is the need to avoid unscrupulous or unplanned land use practices that can compromise these services in addition to the ongoing changes in the global climate whose potentially negative impact are yet to be fully comprehended thus far. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the Land use—land cover changes of some Eastern Shore sub-watersheds of Maryland from 1986-2006 and qualitatively assess the impact of the changes on some key ecosystem services. Landsat-TM data for Maryland Eastern Shore in the United States were analyzed in ENVI and ArcGIS environment and data interpreted qualitatively. The result showed that forest lands increased during the study period and thus enhanced carbon sequestration favorable for mitigating global warming in the area. Also, the extent of surface water cover increased slightly, possibly due to rising sea level and a thus a potential threat to biodiversity and barrier islands nearby. There was also a significant increase in urban lands due to population increase and thus increase in the extent of impervious layers that could lead to reduced surface runoff and increase the potential for surface water quality impairment;this could lead to a reduction in the capacity of surface water ecosystem to provide clean/recreational waters. The increase in the extent of surface water cover was at the expense of the wetlands that shrunk, thereby threatening the coastal ecosystem’s ability to provide services such as storm and wave protection, nutrient cycling, and the protection of wildlife habitat. There was also a decrease in the extent of Agricultural lands which could lead to loss of food and fiber during the study period. There is therefore an urgent need to formulate or intensify existing policies to regulate land use from an ecological health standpoint in order to ensure sustainability of the various ecosystems within the watersheds of the Lower Eastern Shore of Maryland in the US, and similar coastal locations elsewhere.

Land use change and its corresponding ecological responses:a review

This paper reviews the research on land use change and its corresponding ecological responses. Patterns of land use changes in spatio-temporal level are produced by the interaction of biophysical and socio-economic processes. Nowadays, the studies derived from different socioeconomic conditions and scales show that at short-term scale, human activities, rather than natural forces, have become a major force in shaping the environment, while biophysical factors control the trends and processes of land use change under the macro environmental background. Providing a scientific understanding of the process of land use change, the impacts of different land use decisions, and the ways that decisions are affected by a changing environment and increasing ecological variability are the priority areas for research： （1） explanation of scale dependency of drivers of land use change; （2） quantification of driving factors of land use change; （3） incorporation of biophysical feedbacks in land use change models： and （4） underlying processes and mechanisms of ecological impacts of land use change.

Integrating landscape ecological principles and land evaluation for sustainable land use

Many existing methods for appraisal of agricultural areas and farming systems are short of dynamics and spatial analysis. The main objective of this paper is to merge approaches in classical land evaluation, largely based on soil science, and newer approaches in landscape ecology, which are rather based on the relationships between spatial patterns (physiography, land use and farming system design, vegetation etc.) and processes (farming activities, scale changes, geomorphological processes, bio ecological processes). Rapid changes in rural areas have an impact on both processes and patterns. Planning for sustainable use of these areas should include the assessment of the interrelations between these patterns and processes.

SUSTAINABLE LAND USE PLANNING BASED ON ECOLOGICAL HEALTH——Case Study of Beiwenquan Town, Chongqing, China

This paper, taking Beiwenquan Town of Beibei, Chongqing as an example, assessed the impacts of land use on ecological health by comprehensive index method, and discussed methodological system of sustainable land use planning based on ecological health. Results indicated that: 1) From 1992 to 2002, land use changes focused on 12 patterns with the total conversion area of 92.11%, which were related to cultivated land, residential and industrial-mining area, and orchard land. Urbanization and economic reconstruction were the leading driving forces. 2) There was obvious difference of the areas of ecotypes driven by land use change in wide valley and mild slope between 1992 and 2002, while there were little or no difference in steep slope and very steep slope. 3) Both of the conditions of ecological health in 1992 and 2002 were sound, and the ecotypes focused on the types of health and sub-health. But, health ecosystem in 1992, with an area of 764.64ha, accounting for 38.51% of the total evaluation area, was better than that in 2002, with an area of 636.10ha, accounting for 34.19% of the total evaluation area. 4) The ecotypes involved into different ranges have already degenerated, due to humankind’s disturbance, while the conditions of ecological health in the same ranges in 1992, regardless of stability and reconstruction, were better than that in 2002. 5) The planning scenario based on ecological health was accorded with the practice condition of Beiwenquan Town: 388.29ha of cultivated land could meet the Beiwenquan demand of food and byproduct; 1045.26ha of forest land area, the Beiwenquan demand of ecological health; and 1004.73ha of the residential and industrial-mining area, the Beiwenquan building demand. 6) Sustainable land use planning based on ecological health had higher useful value, because it not only stood to ecological theory, but also satisfied the developmental demand of society and economy.

Ecological niche suitability model with an application in Taojiang land use planning

Ecological suitability analysis is an important step in ecological planning. It applies the basis toestablish a sound development planning. In this paper, by applying multi-dimension niche concept, an eco-logical niche suitability (ENS) model was developed. The ENS model, combined with geographical informa-tion system (GIS) and spatial simulation, was used to analyze regional resources and environmental features ,and identify the suitability of regional resource and environment to regional development. An application ofthe ENS model in Taojiang agricultural land use planning is presented.

Land use change and its ecological effect in Qian’an County of Jilin Province

Based on GIS and statistical methods, with the help of searching historical literatures and calculating the landscape indices, the land use changes of Qian'an County in both spatial and temporal aspects from 1945 to 1996 has been analyzed in this paper. And the driving forces of land use changes and their ecological effects are discussed too. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) Land use changed greatly in Qian'an during 1945-1996, characterized by a decrease in grassland, wetland and water bodies, and an increase in cultivated land, saline-alkali land, and the land for housing and other construction purposes. Grassland decreased by 175,828.66 ha, and cultivated land increased by 102,137.23 ha over the half century. Accordingly, the main landscape type changed from a steppe landscape to a managed agricultural ecosystem. (2) Results of correlation analysis show that the land use change in the study area was mainly driven by the socioeconomic factors. (3) The ecological effects of land use change in the area are characterized by serious salinization, degression of soil fertility and the weakening of landscape suitability.

Study on Ecological Risk of Land Use in Urbanization Watershed Based on RS and GIS:A Case Study of Songhua River Watershed in Harbin Section

By using RS and GIS technology,the ecological risk index ( ERI) was constructed based on the analysis of land use change and structural characteristics in urbanization watershed of Songhua River in Harbin section. Afterwards,the spatial distribution and change characteristics maps of ERI obtained by using block Kriging were analyzed to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics,change rules and formation mechanisms of ecological risk based on land use under the background of urbanization,and to minimize land use risk during urbanization process. The results showed that during the past 18 years,moderate ecological risk level was major,while proportion of high ecological risk was the lowest,and the area of higher and lower ecological risk region changed most greatly; high and higher ecological risk were focused on urban region and the transition zone from urban to suburban region,while low and lower ecological risk mainly distributed in forestland with higher vegetation coverage,water bodies,grassland,shrub land and so on. Meanwhile,the transition zone from high to low ecological risk was very obvious. In addition,ecological risk became slightly worse in some region due to the transformation from cropland to residential and urban land,while it became slightly better in other regions because of the transformation from cropland to forestland; the center of gravity in lower ecological risk region shifted most greatly,while the shift was the smallest in high ecological risk region,namely 12. 31 and 0. 57 km respectively.

Ecological planning of land use in the central area of Tianjin,China

This paper is attempted to develop a set of suitable principles and methodologies for urban ecological planning of land use,to analyze the ecological suitability of different kinds of land use patterns of Tianjin City, to help local decision makers to work out concrete ecological strategies for promoting a sound development of the city and for improving the life quality of the citizens, and to provide the decision makers with a new approach for solving the environmental problems brought about by the improper mixture of industry and residence.

Ecological Safety Evaluation of Land Use in Ji'an City Based on the Principal Component Analysis

According to the ecological safety evaluation index data of land-use change in Ji'an City from 1999 to 2008,positive treatment on selected reverse indices is conducted by Reciprocal Method.Meanwhile,Index Method is used to standardize the selected indices,and Principal Component Analysis is applied by using year as a unit.FB is obtained,which is related with the ecological safety of land-use change from 1999 to 2008.According to the scientific,integrative,hierarchical,practical and dynamic principles,ecological safety evaluation index system of land-use change in Ji'an City is established.Principal Component Analysis and evaluation model are used to calculate four parameters,including the natural resources safety index of land use,the socio-economic safety indicators of land use,the eco-environmental safety index of land use,and the ecological safety degree of land use in Ji'an City.Result indicates that the ecological safety degree of land use in Ji'an City shows a slow upward trend as a whole.At the same time,ecological safety degree of land-use change is relatively low in Ji'an City with the safety value of 0.645,which is at a weak safety zone and needs further monitoring and maintenance.

LAND USE CHANGE AND ITS SOCIO-ECONOMIC DRIVING FORCES UNDER STRESS OF PROJECT IN OLD RESERVOIR AREA——Case Study of Linshui Reservoir Area of Dahonghe Reservoir in Sichuan Province

The old reservoir areas built in 1950s- 1970s left behind many socio-economic problems, because of the administrative backward migration and little migration fund, and all these problems would be tied to land. Based on interviewing with peasant households, combining land use survey and socio-economic statistical index, this paper analyzed land use change and its corresponding driving forces in Linshui reservoir area of Dahonghe Reservoir. Results showed that land use change in the reservoir area was mainly embodied on low-lying land submergence and migration requisition land. The former changed the land use patterns, and the latter mainly reconstructed original land property and made land over-fragmented. Cultivated land per capita was 0.041ha in this area, below the cordon of cultivated land per capita enacted by FAO. Currently, there were still 30.25% of peasant households being short of grain in trimester of one year, and there were 35.27% of people living under the poverty line. The conditions of eco-environmerit in Linshui Reservoir Area were worse, and healthy and sub-healthy eco-environment accounted for less proportion, composed of green belt around the reservoir area and paddy field ecosystem, and economic forest and orchard ecosystem, respectively. The stress of the reservoir project was macroscopic background to analyze the driving factors of land use change, and real underlying diving factor of the land use change in the area was the change of cultural landscape under the stress of reservoir project. The rapid increase of population was the key factor to induce the change of man-land relationship in the reservoir area, the low level of rural economy was the crucial factor to decide how migrants input for production, and the belief of migrants, influencing the land use patterns in a certain extent, was the inducing factor to keep land use stable. The low-lying submergence and infrastructure construction accompanied the reservoir project were leading factors driving land use change in the area, while changes in land use patterns, after the reservoir being built, were the responses of peasant households＇ behaviors to land use change.

Assessment of ecological quality in Northwest China(2000-2020)using the Google Earth Engine platform:Climate factors and land use/land cover contribute to ecological quality

The ecological quality of inland areas is an important aspect of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(UN SDGs).The ecological environment of Northwest China is vulnerable to changes in climate and land use/land cover,and the changes in ecological quality in this arid region over the last two decades are not well understood.This makes it more difficult to advance the UN SDGs and develop appropriate measures at the regional level.In this study,we used the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)products to generate remote sensing ecological index(RSEI)on the Google Earth Engine(GEE)platform to examine the relationship between ecological quality and environment in Xinjiang during the last two decades(from 2000 to 2020).We analyzed a 21-year time series of the trends and spatial characteristics of ecological quality.We further assessed the importance of different environmental factors affecting ecological quality through the random forest algorithm using data from statistical yearbooks and land use products.Our results show that the RSEI constructed using the GEE platform can accurately reflect the ecological quality information in Xinjiang because the contribution of the first principal component was higher than 90.00%.The ecological quality in Xinjiang has increased significantly over the last two decades,with the northern part of this region having a better ecological quality than the southern part.The areas with slightly improved ecological quality accounted for 31.26%of the total land area of Xinjiang,whereas only 3.55%of the land area was classified as having a slightly worsen(3.16%)or worsen(0.39%)ecological quality.The vast majority of the deterioration in ecological quality mainly occurred in the barren areas Temperature,precipitation,closed shrublands,grasslands and savannas were the top five environmental factors affecting the changes in RSEI.Environmental factors were allocated different weights for different RSEI categories.In general,the recovery of ecological quality in Xinjiang has been controlled by climate and land use/land cover during the last two decades and policy-driven ecological restoration is therefore crucial.Rapid monitoring of inland ecological quality using the GEE platform is projected to aid in the advancement of the comprehensive assessment of the UN SDGs.

Land Use Structure in Wuhai City on Basis of Ecological Green Equivalence

The paper took Wuhai District as an example, bases on the contrast be-tween the land use condition in 2005 and 2010, and applied the ecological green equivalence to establish a mathematic model of ecological optimization of land use structure, to establish the ecology green equivalent mathematical model and survey the value of region green equivalent, and then assess the ecological environment situation. The results show that the ecological environment has been deteriorated in Wuhai from 2005 to 2010, so the ecological environment was poor. In order to in-crease eco-efficiency of land use, garden, urban green space and woodland area should be raised in the optimization program.

Ecological planning for land use and ruraldevelopment of Taojiang County

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Study on the Programming Standard for Ecological Rescue in General Land Use Planning

This paper aims at establishing the operation idea based on the analysis of the connotation,principles and reference indexes for programming standard for ecological rescue.The paper puts forward that the programming standard should take into account the natural,social and economic reference indexes,and modifies the scale and distribution of the ecological rescue according to the order of ecological safety,social safety and economic development.The paper suggests that the land planning department should strengthen the study and datum accumulation in order to establish the technology regulations of programming standard of the ecological rescue.

Land Use Change and Its Impact on Values of Ecosystem Services in the West of Jilin Province

According to interpreting the LANDSAT TM/ETM images of 1986 and 2002, the spatial-temporal characteristics of land use changes were analyzed during 16 years base on GIS. In addition, the change of ecosystem services due to land use change was estimated by the method of vaulting global ecosystem services. The result shows that there were rapid increases in the area of cropland, saline-alkaline land, and dramatic decreases in grassland, water area and wetland between 1986 and 2002. The annual value of the ecosystem services was declined from 767.1 ×10s Yuan/a in 1986 to 624.1 × 10s Yuan/a in 2002, the estimated annual ecosystem service value declined by 18. 6 % （i. e. 1.6% per year） between 1986 and 2002. It indicates that there had been a sever harm to ecosystem functions and services, which results from the deterioration of ecological environment and the adjustment of land use that aim to currently economic benefit.