正确认识不同区域能量和水分循环特征是研究局地地气相互作用及准确预测区域天气,气候变化的关键.为了研究属于干旱/半干旱气候的青藏高原(TP)和湿润/半湿润气候的长江流域(YRR)之间地表能量和水分交换的异同,本文对比分析了两个区域8...正确认识不同区域能量和水分循环特征是研究局地地气相互作用及准确预测区域天气,气候变化的关键.为了研究属于干旱/半干旱气候的青藏高原(TP)和湿润/半湿润气候的长江流域(YRR)之间地表能量和水分交换的异同,本文对比分析了两个区域8个不同地表类型(包括高山荒漠,高山草地,(平原)城市和(平原)草地等)观测站点的地表辐射和能量通量数据.结果显示:(1)TP由于高原大气层稀薄且空气洁净,年平均入射短波辐射为251.3W m^(-2),是YRR的1.7倍.加之高原地表反照率高导致反射辐射(59.6 W m^(-2))是YRR的2.87倍.入射及出射的长波辐射为231.5和338.0 W m^(-2),分别为YRR的0.64和0.83.而两个区域的净辐射差异不大;(2)草地站更多的潜热释放使得地表总加热效率高于城市和高山荒漠,TP和YRR的草地站的年平均潜热分别为35.0和38.8 W m^(-2),而植被稀疏且土壤干燥的高山荒漠地区感热最大,年平均感热为42.1 W m^(-2);其次是城市下垫面,其年平均感热为37.7 W m^(-2).研究结果揭示了不同气候背景下典型下垫面地气相互作用特征,为地气相互作用过程深入分析奠定了基础.展开更多
This work investigated the land-use/land-cover and some physico-chemical properties of the soils of Mt Cameroon and presented same in maps. ArcGIS Pro mapping software, Landsat images, Global Positioning Systems (GPS)...This work investigated the land-use/land-cover and some physico-chemical properties of the soils of Mt Cameroon and presented same in maps. ArcGIS Pro mapping software, Landsat images, Global Positioning Systems (GPS) coordinates collected from the field combined with updated shape files from competent services were used to produce the location and land-use/land-cover maps. Sixteen topsoil samples (0 - 20 cm) were collected, 4 from each land use/cover category: farmland, forest, plantation and settlement, and analysed for soil pH, cation exchange capacity (CEC), bulk density, moisture content and soil texture, in the laboratory using standard analytical procedures. This data was used to produce spatial distribution maps using ordinary kriging, in ArcGIS Pro. The main terrestrial land use/cover categories comprised of the forest (mangrove, lowland, montane and sub-montane), agroforestry, plantations, grassland, settlement, cropland, shrubby savannah, and bare lava. Bulk density showed the highest values in settlement areas and least values under forest land-use categories. Soil moisture content exhibited a reverse trend compared to that of soil bulk density. Forest soils were the sandiest while soils in plantation agricultural land were the most clayey. The soils were slightly acidic to neutral with soils from agricultural land being more acidic (pH<sub>(water)</sub> = 5.43). It is discernible from the results that the conversion from forest to other land use/cover classes enhances soil degradation and that soil physico-chemical properties adequately serve as indicators of soil quality in the Mt Cameroon area.展开更多
Grassland, as one of the largest ecosystems on the earth, supports various goods and services to humanity.Historically, humans have increased agricultural output primarily by cropland expansion and agricultural intens...Grassland, as one of the largest ecosystems on the earth, supports various goods and services to humanity.Historically, humans have increased agricultural output primarily by cropland expansion and agricultural intensification.The cropland area was primarily gained at the expense of grassland and forests.Apart from grassland conversion, increasing consumption of calorie- and meat-intensive diets drives the intensification of livestock systems, which is shifting steadily from grazing to feeding with crops.To cope with the environmental degradation due to agriculture, various forms of ‘green payment' were implemented to promote the adoption of sustainable farming practices over the last two decades in the European Union.The aim of this study is to monitor the recent transitions(1992–2010) between grassland and cropland during two Common Agricultural Policy(CAP) reforms at the French mainland scale.We proposed an innovative approach to link grassland conversion to agricultural commodities and farming systems practices.We first assessed the grassland-to-cropland conversion and further investigated the crop sequence patterns that were observed to be dominant after the conversion through mining land-cover survey data Teruti and Teruti-Lucas.We found the trends of the transitions between grassland and cropland over the two time intervals: The loss of grassland(1992–2003) and restoration or re-expansion of grassland(2006–2010) in mainland France.Our finding on the crop sequence patterns after the grassland conversion reveals two notable evolutions of agricultural production systems.These evolutions were related to the increase in the proportion of cropland in the total agricultural land use.One evolution was most likely influenced by the demand for fodder: The conversion from grazing livestock to feeding livestock.Another evolution was the conversion from livestock production to field crop production.Our results indicate that the intensification of livestock farming systems continued over the last two decades in France.We conclude that, the approach developed in this study can be considered as a generic method for monitoring the transitions between grassland and cropland and further identifying the crop sequence patterns after the grassland conversion from time-series land cover data.展开更多
A major threat to biodiversity in North Dakota is the conversion of forested land to cultivable land, especially those that act as riparian buffers. To reverse this trend of transformation, a validation and prediction...A major threat to biodiversity in North Dakota is the conversion of forested land to cultivable land, especially those that act as riparian buffers. To reverse this trend of transformation, a validation and prediction model is necessary to assess the change. Spatial prediction within a Geographic Information System (GIS) using Kriging is a popular stochastic method. The objective of this study was to predict spatial and temporal transformation of a small agricultural watershed—Pipestem Creek in North Dakota;USA using satellite imagery from 1976 to 2015. To enhance the difference between forested land and non-forested land, a spectral transformation method—Tasseled-Cap’s Greenness Index (TCGI) was used. To study the spatial structure present in the imagery within the study period, semivariograms were generated. The Kriging prediction maps were post-classified using Remote Sensing techniques of change detection to obtain the direction and intensity of forest to non-forest change. TCGI generated higher values from 1976 to 2000 and it gradually reduced from 2000 to 2011 indicating loss of forested land.展开更多
Based on multi-temporal remotely sensed materials of both 1985 and 2000, we analyzed the effects of land-use types and their conversions on desertification in Mu Us Sandy Land in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of...Based on multi-temporal remotely sensed materials of both 1985 and 2000, we analyzed the effects of land-use types and their conversions on desertification in Mu Us Sandy Land in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of north central China. In this study, the desertified land was classified into five degrees: potential, light, medium, severe and extreme. The results indicate that the extent of desertification expands slightly, while desertification degree is enhanced significantly. About 22.35% of the total land area in the study area is in the desertification course, and the expanded area of both severely and extremely desertified land accounts for 3.67% of the total area of Mu Us Sandy Land. About 9053 klTl2 of area witnessed changes in land-use types between 1985 and 2000, which accounted for 10.75% of the total. More importantly, the area of conversions among cultivated land, forestland and rangeland added up to 971.6 km^2. This research reveals that both improper land-use types and conversions could accelerate the desertification process. Both cultivated land and forestland have more effects on the desertification development than rangeland. Some land-use type conversions, such as rangeland to cultivated land, rangeland to forestland and forestland to cultivated land, are attributed to the acceleration of the desertification development while the opposite can control the desertification development.展开更多
Sustainable land use patterns are ecological and economic prerequisites of regional sustainable development. This is especially true for arid lands, where the environment is wholly fragile thanks to extremely limited ...Sustainable land use patterns are ecological and economic prerequisites of regional sustainable development. This is especially true for arid lands, where the environment is wholly fragile thanks to extremely limited precipitation, and where human activities have greatly transformed natural desert system by clearing natural vegetation, expanding oases and even building dams on inland rivers. However, the current studies on land use patterns are still characterized by field investigations and case studies, with almost no solid scientific basis. This paper holds that land types and their combination patterns are the principal basis for designing sustainable land use patterns, and that GIS and RS-based large-scale land type mapping and the study of their spatial combination structures should be coordinated with the demand of social development. The existing environmental problems induced by irrational land use mostly result from their deviation from the natural properties of land types. Taking the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM) as an example and considering land type patterns as the basis of land use patterns, this paper improves the vertical oa- sis-and-mid-mountain two-belts development model and the sustainable mountain land use model for arid lands put forward in recent years; and in terms of oases patterns, it outlines oasis development models, including intensive land use pattern in alluvial-diluvial fans, moderate agricultural development pattern in alluvial plains, and ecological land use pattern in river-end oases.展开更多
This article explores the factors and mechanism driving the land-use conversion at regional level by developing and using an econometric approach which is called the simultaneous equations model (SEM). A case study ...This article explores the factors and mechanism driving the land-use conversion at regional level by developing and using an econometric approach which is called the simultaneous equations model (SEM). A case study in Jiangxi Province of China is conducted by establishing the SEM, which consists of three equations including agricultural production, land conversion of cultivated land to built-up area and land conversion of cultivated land to forest cover/grassland from 1988 to 2005. And then this paper employs the method of piecewise estimation to represent the influences of the factors such as population, society, economy, location and geophysical conditions on the process of land-use conversion in Jiangxi Province. Estimation results show that population is a predominant factor driving the land-use conversion at counties, while social and economic factors are determinant factors in the short term for the entire Jiangxi Province. Specifically, the size of agricultural population and the magnitude of agricultural input determine the agricultural production to a large extent; population size, plain area proportion at counties and land management policies together affect the direction and magnitude of conversion between cultivated land and built-up area; agricultural population proportion, terrain slope, grain production and non-agricultural industry promote the conversion of cultivated land to forest cover/grassland. Furthermore, the explored mechanism also reveals the underlying causes of the land use changes driven by a series of factors in Jiangxi Province. Finally, this paper concludes that factors proven to play an important role in driving the land-use conversion need to be considered when the land management agencies make out the land use planning to optimize the land use, expand the agricultural production, and conserve the cultivated land.展开更多
To improve the land surface simulation in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China, the observational data from two field experiments in Dunhuang and Tongyu are used to optimize the parameters in the land surfac...To improve the land surface simulation in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China, the observational data from two field experiments in Dunhuang and Tongyu are used to optimize the parameters in the land surface model, BATS, through calibration with the multicriteria method. Sensitivity analysis to the parameters in Dunhuang and Tongyu indicates that different parameters need to be calibrated in two sites with different environmental and climate regimes. Comparison of observed sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and ground surface temperature with the simulated ones shows the simulations with the optimized parameters have been substantially improved. Especially, the holistic simulations with the calibration of the parameter values are much closer to the observations in the arid region (Dunhuang), and the energy partition with the calibrated parameters can also be simulated well in the semi-arid region (Tongyu). Whole results demonstrate that the parameter calibration of the land surface model is important when the model is to be used to investigate the land-air interaction.展开更多
The Tibetan Plateau(TP) has powerful dynamics and thermal effects, which makes the interaction between its land and atmosphere significantly affect climate and environment in the regional or global area. By retrospect...The Tibetan Plateau(TP) has powerful dynamics and thermal effects, which makes the interaction between its land and atmosphere significantly affect climate and environment in the regional or global area. By retrospecting the latest research progress in the simulation of land-surface processes(LSPs) over the past 20 years, this study discusses both the simulation ability of land-surface models(LSMs) and the modification of parameterization schemes from two perspectives, the models' applicability and improved parameterization schemes. Our review suggests that different LSMs can well capture the spatiotemporal variations of the physical quantities of LSPs; but none of them can be fully applied to the plateau, meaning that all need to be revised according to the characteristics specific to the TP. Avoiding the unstable iterative computation and determining the freeze-thaw critical temperature according to the thermodynamic equilibrium equation, the unreasonable freeze-thaw parameterization scheme can be improved. Due to the complex underlying surface of the TP, no parameterization scheme of roughness length can well simulate the various characteristics of the turbulent flux over the TP at different temporal scales. The uniform soil thermodynamic and hydraulic parameterization scheme is unreasonable when it is applied to the plateau, as a result of the strong soil heterogeneity. There is little research on the snow-cover process so far,and the improved scheme has no advantage over the original one due to the lack of some related physical processes. The constant interaction among subprocesses of LSPs makes the improvement of a multiparameterization scheme yield better simulation results. According to the review of existing research, adding high-quality observation stations, developing a parameterization scheme suitable for the special LSPs of the TP, and adjusting the model structures can be helpful to the simulation of LSPs on the TP.展开更多
North China is the most important food basket of China, where the majority of wheat and corn are produced. Most crops grown in North China are irrigated, thus water security is food security. Since the 1980s, drying h...North China is the most important food basket of China, where the majority of wheat and corn are produced. Most crops grown in North China are irrigated, thus water security is food security. Since the 1980s, drying has been frequently observed, as shown by a reduction in precipitation, cutoff in riverflow, and shrinkage of lakes. This increase in drying cannot be explained by climate change alone. We propose that intensive land-use in this area in recent decades has had a significant impact. The objectives of the study are to develop a quantitative model of the concurrent processes of climate change and land-use in North China, and to estimate the relative contributions of each on the observed drying. We integrated relevant socioeconomic data, land-use data, and climate data in the model, and carried out a detailed multi-temporal (decade, year, day) analysis. Results showed that land-use has greatly changed since 1999. This change is mainly associated with an extremely important 1999 national policy of "returning farmland and grazing land to forest and grassland". We found an interesting interaction between climate change and land use policy on riverflow, runoff, and evapotranspiration. During 1970s and 1980s, climate change explained more than 80%, while the land-use change explained only 10% of the riverflow change. The relative contributions were 45 and 45% in the 1980s-1990s and 35 and 55% in the 1990s-2000s respectively for climate change and land-use change. Since the 1990s land-use change has also contributed more to runoff change than climate change. The opposite trend was found for changes in evapotranspiration. Water availability for agriculture in northern China is simultaneously stressed by extensive changes in land-use and rapid climate change. Adaptation of ecological principles, such as the "returning farmland/grazing land to forest and grassland" policy, and other adjustments of economic developmental strategies can be effective tools to mitigate the water shortage problem in northern China and promote sustainable agricultural and food development.展开更多
Miyun Reservoir is the most important water source to Beijing City. Land-use of the basin plays a great role in the protection of water resources. Hence a sustainable land-use planning is required to optimize land-use...Miyun Reservoir is the most important water source to Beijing City. Land-use of the basin plays a great role in the protection of water resources. Hence a sustainable land-use planning is required to optimize land-use structure and protect water resources in the basin. Based on the complete land-use system analysis in Miyun, a grey multi-objective programming to basin land-use(GMOPBLU) model was developed and applied to land-use planning. Two alternatives were produced and analyzed by means of interactive adjustment and scenario analysis. The results showed the GMOPBLU model is a valuable approach for basin land-use planning.展开更多
This paper presents an index system and a method for calculating the comprehensive index of land-use degree. The latest data form two projects titled "Remote sensing Macro Investigation and Dynamic Study of Natio...This paper presents an index system and a method for calculating the comprehensive index of land-use degree. The latest data form two projects titled "Remote sensing Macro Investigation and Dynamic Study of National Resources and Environment" and "Resources and Environment Database of China" have been fully applied. In addition, this paper analyzes the regularity of the regional differentiation of land-use degree in China and the socio-economic and physical factors which affect the change of land-use degree in China. The "polar" model and the "longitude-distance" model of land-use degree of China are also developed.展开更多
Understanding the effect of human activities on the soil environment is fundamental to understanding global change and sustainable development. In the process of transformation of tropical rain forests and semiarid gr...Understanding the effect of human activities on the soil environment is fundamental to understanding global change and sustainable development. In the process of transformation of tropical rain forests and semiarid grasslands to farmlands, land degradation usually occurs. But the transformation of arid desert landscape to oasis is found to have quite different consequences. Taking an alluvial plain oasis in the north piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains as a case study, we investigate oasis soil properties related to different land-use systems during the transformation of arid desert to oases. Selected land-use systems con- sisted of an annual crop field less than 3 years old, annual crop field 3-6 years old, annual crop field more than 6 years old, perennial crop field less than 4 years old, perennial crop field of 4-6 years old, perennial crop field more than 6 years old, abandoned farmland more than 3 years old, woodland field more than 6 years old, ecological forestation field, natural shrubbery field, desert grass land, and saline or alkaline field. Different land-use systems affect significantly the distribution of sand, silt and clay. Sand content in oasis soil tends to decrease with cultivation years but silt and clay contents tend to be increased in the oasis soils. Soil fertility is higher in the land-use systems under strong human disturbance than under weak human disturbance. Oasis soil nutrients also tend to increase with cultivation years. Soils have a significantly lower salinity in the land-use systems under strong human disturbance than under weak human disturbance. Soil organic matter and nutrients of the annual and perennial crop systems in the oasis tend to increase with cultivation time with the oasis soil acting as a carbon sink. These results show that soils are not degraded and the soil quality is gradually improved under rational land use and scientific management patterns, including uniform exploitation of land resources, effective irrigation systems, sound drainage systems, balanced fertilizer application, crushed straw return to soil and transformation of annual crop fields to perennial ones.展开更多
Topsoil soil organic carbon (SOC) that plays an important role in mitigating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO_2) buildup is greatly affected by human activities.To evaluate the influence of land-use changes on SOC stock...Topsoil soil organic carbon (SOC) that plays an important role in mitigating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO_2) buildup is greatly affected by human activities.To evaluate the influence of land-use changes on SOC stocks in paddy soils,a new algorithm was developed by integrating MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectral-radiometer) and TM/ETM data for timely monitoring the land-use change in Wujiang County.Thereafter,the land-use class-maps derived from MODIS and TM/ETM analyses were further used to estima...展开更多
Land-use changes, especially the conversion of native forest vegetation to cropland and plantations in tropical region, can alter soil C and N pools and N availability for plant uptake. Deforestation, followed by shif...Land-use changes, especially the conversion of native forest vegetation to cropland and plantations in tropical region, can alter soil C and N pools and N availability for plant uptake. Deforestation, followed by shifting cultivation and establishment of rubber tree plantation, is a common land-use change in Xishuangbanna, southwest China. However the influence of this kind of land-use change on soil C and N dynamics in this region remains poorly understood. This study was conducted to assess the effects of land-use change on soil C and N pools. Soil samples were collected on five adjacent plots, which belong to three land-use types including secondary forest-an acuminate banana(Musa itinerans) secondary forest and a male bamboo(Dendrocalamus membranaceae) secondary forest, shifting cultivation, and rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis (H.B.K.) Muell. Arg.) plantation(one plot is 3-year-old, and another is 7-year-old). We measured soil bulk density (BD), pH value, moisture content and concentrations of soil organic carbon(SOC), total soil nitrogen(TSN), and inorganic N(NO - 3-N and NH + 4-N ) at 0—3, 3—20, 20—40 and 40—60 cm depths, and calculated C and N pools in 0—20, 20—40, 40—60, and 0—60 cm soil layers. Compared with the adjacent secondary forests, shifting cultivation and establishment of rubber tree plantations resulted in significant decline in concentrations and stocks of SOC and TSN in 0—20 and 0—60 cm soil layers, and increase in pH and bulk density at 0—3, 3—20, and 20—40 cm depths. Soil moisture content decreased only in 0—20 cm surface soils in shifting cultivation and plantations. The dynamics of mineral N was much more complex, which had different trends among depths and ecosystems. Compared with the secondary forests, SOC stocks in 0—20 cm surface soils in shifting cultivation and rubber tree plantations(3-year-old plantation and 7-year-old plantation) decreased by 34.0%, 33%, and 23%; and TSN stocks decreased by 32 2%, 20.4%, and 20.4%, respectively, whereas the decreases of SOC and TSN stocks in 0—60 cm soil layers were much less. The results indicated that C and N losses were mainly occurred in 0—20 cm surface soil, followed by 20—40 cm layer.展开更多
Urban land provides a suitable location for various economic activities which affect the development of surrounding areas. With rapid industrialization and urbanization, the contradictions in land-use become more noti...Urban land provides a suitable location for various economic activities which affect the development of surrounding areas. With rapid industrialization and urbanization, the contradictions in land-use become more noticeable. Urban administrators and decision-makers seek modern methods and technology to provide information support for urban growth. Recently, with the fast development of high-resolution sensor technology, more relevant data can be obtained, which is an advantage in studying the sustainable development of urban land-use. However, these data are only information sources and are a mixture of "information" and "noise". Processing, analysis and information extraction from remote sensing data is necessary to provide useful information. This paper extracts urban land-use information from a high-resolution image by using the multi-feature information of the image objects, and adopts an object-oriented image analysis approach and multi-scale image segmentation technology. A classification and extraction model is set up based on the multi-features of the image objects, in order to contribute to information for reasonable planning and effective management. This new image analysis approach offers a satisfactory solution for extracting information quickly and efficiently.展开更多
Rural-urban land conversion is a universal phenomenon in the rapid process of economic development and urban growth.The welfare of farmers who lost their farmland attracted a widespread concern within the society and ...Rural-urban land conversion is a universal phenomenon in the rapid process of economic development and urban growth.The welfare of farmers who lost their farmland attracted a widespread concern within the society and academia.However,further research about differentiated policies according to the characteristics of different farmer groups is still need to be conducted.This article divides the land-lost farmers into three age groups:younger than 45,45-65,and more than 65.It proposes a welfare index system including eight functional areas based on different age groups of affected farmers,taking four districts of Wuhan City as case study area.Fuzzy mathematics method is used to derive the aggregated welfare effect index.Our analysis show that the overall welfare levels of land-lost farmers of all age groups declined,but with a varying degree,with the level of welfare in those farmers who are 45-65 years old,younger than 45 years old,and older than 65 years old decreased by 18.7%,16.6%,and 12.7%,respectively.The direction and degree of effects on the functional activity index varies among different groups.Economic conditions,living environment,health,and social participation of all age groups decrease while social security and housing conditions increase.On the other hand,development opportunities,social communication,and leisure have different changing directions in different age stages.These results call for differentiated and tailor-made compensation policies for land-lost farmers,towards improving the welfare levels of all farmers and reduce the disparity among them.展开更多
This study aims at exploring potential impacts of land-use vegetation change (LUC) on regional climate variability and extremes. Results from a pair of Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) clima...This study aims at exploring potential impacts of land-use vegetation change (LUC) on regional climate variability and extremes. Results from a pair of Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) climate model 54-yr (1949-2002) integrations have been analysed. In the model experiments, two vegetation datasets are used, with one representing current vegetation coverage in China and the other approximating its potential coverage without human intervention. The model results show potential impacts of LUC on climate variability and extremes. There are statistically significant changes of surface interannual climate variability simulated by the model. Using different vegetation datasets, significant changes in correlation coeiYicients between tropical Pacific Nifio3.4 SST and precipitation and surface temperature over East Asia are identified, which indicate that changes in vegetation coverage may alter ENSO impacts on regional climate variability. Because of the lack of slowly varying surface processes when forests are removed and less rainfall is received following LUC, the ENSO signal simulated by the model becomes stronger. Results furthermore show that land-use could modulate characteristics of decadal variations in this region. When using current vegetation coverage, the model gives better simulation of observed climate variations in the region than the ease using potential vegetation coverage. In addition, results suggest that land-use could be a potential factor contributing to the prolonged drought in central-west China. Changes in local climate extremes, including precipitation and surface temperature maxima and minima, are also identified. Overall, this study has illustrated the importance of further investigation of such important issues in future land-use studies.展开更多
Nowadays, spatial simulation on land use patterns is one of the key contents of LUCC. Modeling is an important tool for simulating land use patterns due to its ability to integrate measurements of changes in land cove...Nowadays, spatial simulation on land use patterns is one of the key contents of LUCC. Modeling is an important tool for simulating land use patterns due to its ability to integrate measurements of changes in land cover and the associated drivers. The conventional regression model can only analyze the correlation between land use types and driving factors but cannot depict the spatial autocorrelation characteristics. Land uses in Yongding County, which is located in the typical karst mountain areas in northwestern Hunan province, were investigated by means of modeling the spatial autocorrelation of land use types with the purpose of deriving better spatial land use patterns on the basis of terrain characteristics and infrastructural conditions. Through incorporating components describing the spatial autocorrelation into a conventional logistic model, we constructed a regression model (Autologistic model), and used this model to simulate and analyze the spatial land use patterns in Yongding County. According to the comparison with the conventional logistic model without considering the spatial autocorrelation, this model showed better goodness and higher accuracy of fitting. The distribution of arable land, wood land, built-up land and unused land yielded areas under the ROC curves (AUC) was improved to 0.893, 0.940, 0.907 and 0.863 respectively with the autologistic model. It is argued that the improved model based on autologistic method was reasonable to a certain extent. Meanwhile, these analysis results could provide valuable information for modeling future land use change scenarios with actual conditions of local and regional land use, and the probability maps of land use types obtained from this study could also support government decision-making on land use management for Yongding County and other similar areas.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China[grant number 2022YFC3002803]the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars[grant number 41925021].
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,under the project entitled“The study of land-atmosphere water and heat flux interaction over the complex terrain of the north and south slopes of the Qomolangma region"[grant number 42230610]a Ministry of Science and Technology of China project called“Landatmosphere interaction and its climate effect of the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program"[grant number 2019QzKK0103]the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[2022069].
文摘正确认识不同区域能量和水分循环特征是研究局地地气相互作用及准确预测区域天气,气候变化的关键.为了研究属于干旱/半干旱气候的青藏高原(TP)和湿润/半湿润气候的长江流域(YRR)之间地表能量和水分交换的异同,本文对比分析了两个区域8个不同地表类型(包括高山荒漠,高山草地,(平原)城市和(平原)草地等)观测站点的地表辐射和能量通量数据.结果显示:(1)TP由于高原大气层稀薄且空气洁净,年平均入射短波辐射为251.3W m^(-2),是YRR的1.7倍.加之高原地表反照率高导致反射辐射(59.6 W m^(-2))是YRR的2.87倍.入射及出射的长波辐射为231.5和338.0 W m^(-2),分别为YRR的0.64和0.83.而两个区域的净辐射差异不大;(2)草地站更多的潜热释放使得地表总加热效率高于城市和高山荒漠,TP和YRR的草地站的年平均潜热分别为35.0和38.8 W m^(-2),而植被稀疏且土壤干燥的高山荒漠地区感热最大,年平均感热为42.1 W m^(-2);其次是城市下垫面,其年平均感热为37.7 W m^(-2).研究结果揭示了不同气候背景下典型下垫面地气相互作用特征,为地气相互作用过程深入分析奠定了基础.
文摘This work investigated the land-use/land-cover and some physico-chemical properties of the soils of Mt Cameroon and presented same in maps. ArcGIS Pro mapping software, Landsat images, Global Positioning Systems (GPS) coordinates collected from the field combined with updated shape files from competent services were used to produce the location and land-use/land-cover maps. Sixteen topsoil samples (0 - 20 cm) were collected, 4 from each land use/cover category: farmland, forest, plantation and settlement, and analysed for soil pH, cation exchange capacity (CEC), bulk density, moisture content and soil texture, in the laboratory using standard analytical procedures. This data was used to produce spatial distribution maps using ordinary kriging, in ArcGIS Pro. The main terrestrial land use/cover categories comprised of the forest (mangrove, lowland, montane and sub-montane), agroforestry, plantations, grassland, settlement, cropland, shrubby savannah, and bare lava. Bulk density showed the highest values in settlement areas and least values under forest land-use categories. Soil moisture content exhibited a reverse trend compared to that of soil bulk density. Forest soils were the sandiest while soils in plantation agricultural land were the most clayey. The soils were slightly acidic to neutral with soils from agricultural land being more acidic (pH<sub>(water)</sub> = 5.43). It is discernible from the results that the conversion from forest to other land use/cover classes enhances soil degradation and that soil physico-chemical properties adequately serve as indicators of soil quality in the Mt Cameroon area.
基金Department SAD of INRA(French National Institute for Agricultural Research)and the Council of Lorraine for supporting the Ph D fellowship of the first author
文摘Grassland, as one of the largest ecosystems on the earth, supports various goods and services to humanity.Historically, humans have increased agricultural output primarily by cropland expansion and agricultural intensification.The cropland area was primarily gained at the expense of grassland and forests.Apart from grassland conversion, increasing consumption of calorie- and meat-intensive diets drives the intensification of livestock systems, which is shifting steadily from grazing to feeding with crops.To cope with the environmental degradation due to agriculture, various forms of ‘green payment' were implemented to promote the adoption of sustainable farming practices over the last two decades in the European Union.The aim of this study is to monitor the recent transitions(1992–2010) between grassland and cropland during two Common Agricultural Policy(CAP) reforms at the French mainland scale.We proposed an innovative approach to link grassland conversion to agricultural commodities and farming systems practices.We first assessed the grassland-to-cropland conversion and further investigated the crop sequence patterns that were observed to be dominant after the conversion through mining land-cover survey data Teruti and Teruti-Lucas.We found the trends of the transitions between grassland and cropland over the two time intervals: The loss of grassland(1992–2003) and restoration or re-expansion of grassland(2006–2010) in mainland France.Our finding on the crop sequence patterns after the grassland conversion reveals two notable evolutions of agricultural production systems.These evolutions were related to the increase in the proportion of cropland in the total agricultural land use.One evolution was most likely influenced by the demand for fodder: The conversion from grazing livestock to feeding livestock.Another evolution was the conversion from livestock production to field crop production.Our results indicate that the intensification of livestock farming systems continued over the last two decades in France.We conclude that, the approach developed in this study can be considered as a generic method for monitoring the transitions between grassland and cropland and further identifying the crop sequence patterns after the grassland conversion from time-series land cover data.
文摘A major threat to biodiversity in North Dakota is the conversion of forested land to cultivable land, especially those that act as riparian buffers. To reverse this trend of transformation, a validation and prediction model is necessary to assess the change. Spatial prediction within a Geographic Information System (GIS) using Kriging is a popular stochastic method. The objective of this study was to predict spatial and temporal transformation of a small agricultural watershed—Pipestem Creek in North Dakota;USA using satellite imagery from 1976 to 2015. To enhance the difference between forested land and non-forested land, a spectral transformation method—Tasseled-Cap’s Greenness Index (TCGI) was used. To study the spatial structure present in the imagery within the study period, semivariograms were generated. The Kriging prediction maps were post-classified using Remote Sensing techniques of change detection to obtain the direction and intensity of forest to non-forest change. TCGI generated higher values from 1976 to 2000 and it gradually reduced from 2000 to 2011 indicating loss of forested land.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40171040Knowledge Innovation Project of theInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, No.CXIOG-A02-03
文摘Based on multi-temporal remotely sensed materials of both 1985 and 2000, we analyzed the effects of land-use types and their conversions on desertification in Mu Us Sandy Land in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of north central China. In this study, the desertified land was classified into five degrees: potential, light, medium, severe and extreme. The results indicate that the extent of desertification expands slightly, while desertification degree is enhanced significantly. About 22.35% of the total land area in the study area is in the desertification course, and the expanded area of both severely and extremely desertified land accounts for 3.67% of the total area of Mu Us Sandy Land. About 9053 klTl2 of area witnessed changes in land-use types between 1985 and 2000, which accounted for 10.75% of the total. More importantly, the area of conversions among cultivated land, forestland and rangeland added up to 971.6 km^2. This research reveals that both improper land-use types and conversions could accelerate the desertification process. Both cultivated land and forestland have more effects on the desertification development than rangeland. Some land-use type conversions, such as rangeland to cultivated land, rangeland to forestland and forestland to cultivated land, are attributed to the acceleration of the desertification development while the opposite can control the desertification development.
基金National Basic Research Program of China, No.2009CB825105National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40671015
文摘Sustainable land use patterns are ecological and economic prerequisites of regional sustainable development. This is especially true for arid lands, where the environment is wholly fragile thanks to extremely limited precipitation, and where human activities have greatly transformed natural desert system by clearing natural vegetation, expanding oases and even building dams on inland rivers. However, the current studies on land use patterns are still characterized by field investigations and case studies, with almost no solid scientific basis. This paper holds that land types and their combination patterns are the principal basis for designing sustainable land use patterns, and that GIS and RS-based large-scale land type mapping and the study of their spatial combination structures should be coordinated with the demand of social development. The existing environmental problems induced by irrational land use mostly result from their deviation from the natural properties of land types. Taking the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM) as an example and considering land type patterns as the basis of land use patterns, this paper improves the vertical oa- sis-and-mid-mountain two-belts development model and the sustainable mountain land use model for arid lands put forward in recent years; and in terms of oases patterns, it outlines oasis development models, including intensive land use pattern in alluvial-diluvial fans, moderate agricultural development pattern in alluvial plains, and ecological land use pattern in river-end oases.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40801231Knowledge Innovation Program of the CAS, No.KZCX2-YW-326-1+3 种基金 No.KZCX2-YW-305-2 No.KSCX1-YW-09-04National Key Technology R&D Program of China, No.2006BAC08B03 No.2006BAC08B06
文摘This article explores the factors and mechanism driving the land-use conversion at regional level by developing and using an econometric approach which is called the simultaneous equations model (SEM). A case study in Jiangxi Province of China is conducted by establishing the SEM, which consists of three equations including agricultural production, land conversion of cultivated land to built-up area and land conversion of cultivated land to forest cover/grassland from 1988 to 2005. And then this paper employs the method of piecewise estimation to represent the influences of the factors such as population, society, economy, location and geophysical conditions on the process of land-use conversion in Jiangxi Province. Estimation results show that population is a predominant factor driving the land-use conversion at counties, while social and economic factors are determinant factors in the short term for the entire Jiangxi Province. Specifically, the size of agricultural population and the magnitude of agricultural input determine the agricultural production to a large extent; population size, plain area proportion at counties and land management policies together affect the direction and magnitude of conversion between cultivated land and built-up area; agricultural population proportion, terrain slope, grain production and non-agricultural industry promote the conversion of cultivated land to forest cover/grassland. Furthermore, the explored mechanism also reveals the underlying causes of the land use changes driven by a series of factors in Jiangxi Province. Finally, this paper concludes that factors proven to play an important role in driving the land-use conversion need to be considered when the land management agencies make out the land use planning to optimize the land use, expand the agricultural production, and conserve the cultivated land.
基金supported jointlyby the Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant KZCX2-YW-220the National Basic Research Program of Chinaunder Grant 2009CB421405the National Natural Sci-ence Foundation of China under Grant No.40730952
文摘To improve the land surface simulation in the arid and semi-arid areas of northern China, the observational data from two field experiments in Dunhuang and Tongyu are used to optimize the parameters in the land surface model, BATS, through calibration with the multicriteria method. Sensitivity analysis to the parameters in Dunhuang and Tongyu indicates that different parameters need to be calibrated in two sites with different environmental and climate regimes. Comparison of observed sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and ground surface temperature with the simulated ones shows the simulations with the optimized parameters have been substantially improved. Especially, the holistic simulations with the calibration of the parameter values are much closer to the observations in the arid region (Dunhuang), and the energy partition with the calibrated parameters can also be simulated well in the semi-arid region (Tongyu). Whole results demonstrate that the parameter calibration of the land surface model is important when the model is to be used to investigate the land-air interaction.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41571066, 41601077, and 41771068)the Strategic Priority Research Pro gram of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) (XDA20100102, XDA19070204)+2 种基金the CAS "Light of West China" Programthe Youth Innovation Promo tion Association CAS (2018460)the Program of China Scholarship Council (201804910129)
文摘The Tibetan Plateau(TP) has powerful dynamics and thermal effects, which makes the interaction between its land and atmosphere significantly affect climate and environment in the regional or global area. By retrospecting the latest research progress in the simulation of land-surface processes(LSPs) over the past 20 years, this study discusses both the simulation ability of land-surface models(LSMs) and the modification of parameterization schemes from two perspectives, the models' applicability and improved parameterization schemes. Our review suggests that different LSMs can well capture the spatiotemporal variations of the physical quantities of LSPs; but none of them can be fully applied to the plateau, meaning that all need to be revised according to the characteristics specific to the TP. Avoiding the unstable iterative computation and determining the freeze-thaw critical temperature according to the thermodynamic equilibrium equation, the unreasonable freeze-thaw parameterization scheme can be improved. Due to the complex underlying surface of the TP, no parameterization scheme of roughness length can well simulate the various characteristics of the turbulent flux over the TP at different temporal scales. The uniform soil thermodynamic and hydraulic parameterization scheme is unreasonable when it is applied to the plateau, as a result of the strong soil heterogeneity. There is little research on the snow-cover process so far,and the improved scheme has no advantage over the original one due to the lack of some related physical processes. The constant interaction among subprocesses of LSPs makes the improvement of a multiparameterization scheme yield better simulation results. According to the review of existing research, adding high-quality observation stations, developing a parameterization scheme suitable for the special LSPs of the TP, and adjusting the model structures can be helpful to the simulation of LSPs on the TP.
基金the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91025008 and 30972421)
文摘North China is the most important food basket of China, where the majority of wheat and corn are produced. Most crops grown in North China are irrigated, thus water security is food security. Since the 1980s, drying has been frequently observed, as shown by a reduction in precipitation, cutoff in riverflow, and shrinkage of lakes. This increase in drying cannot be explained by climate change alone. We propose that intensive land-use in this area in recent decades has had a significant impact. The objectives of the study are to develop a quantitative model of the concurrent processes of climate change and land-use in North China, and to estimate the relative contributions of each on the observed drying. We integrated relevant socioeconomic data, land-use data, and climate data in the model, and carried out a detailed multi-temporal (decade, year, day) analysis. Results showed that land-use has greatly changed since 1999. This change is mainly associated with an extremely important 1999 national policy of "returning farmland and grazing land to forest and grassland". We found an interesting interaction between climate change and land use policy on riverflow, runoff, and evapotranspiration. During 1970s and 1980s, climate change explained more than 80%, while the land-use change explained only 10% of the riverflow change. The relative contributions were 45 and 45% in the 1980s-1990s and 35 and 55% in the 1990s-2000s respectively for climate change and land-use change. Since the 1990s land-use change has also contributed more to runoff change than climate change. The opposite trend was found for changes in evapotranspiration. Water availability for agriculture in northern China is simultaneously stressed by extensive changes in land-use and rapid climate change. Adaptation of ecological principles, such as the "returning farmland/grazing land to forest and grassland" policy, and other adjustments of economic developmental strategies can be effective tools to mitigate the water shortage problem in northern China and promote sustainable agricultural and food development.
文摘Miyun Reservoir is the most important water source to Beijing City. Land-use of the basin plays a great role in the protection of water resources. Hence a sustainable land-use planning is required to optimize land-use structure and protect water resources in the basin. Based on the complete land-use system analysis in Miyun, a grey multi-objective programming to basin land-use(GMOPBLU) model was developed and applied to land-use planning. Two alternatives were produced and analyzed by means of interactive adjustment and scenario analysis. The results showed the GMOPBLU model is a valuable approach for basin land-use planning.
文摘This paper presents an index system and a method for calculating the comprehensive index of land-use degree. The latest data form two projects titled "Remote sensing Macro Investigation and Dynamic Study of National Resources and Environment" and "Resources and Environment Database of China" have been fully applied. In addition, this paper analyzes the regularity of the regional differentiation of land-use degree in China and the socio-economic and physical factors which affect the change of land-use degree in China. The "polar" model and the "longitude-distance" model of land-use degree of China are also developed.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40671015, No.40711120200 Project of "Western Light of CAS" Related to Eastern Scholar, No.20051048 Acknowledgements We thank Prof. Ian Bishop for the help on improving English.
文摘Understanding the effect of human activities on the soil environment is fundamental to understanding global change and sustainable development. In the process of transformation of tropical rain forests and semiarid grasslands to farmlands, land degradation usually occurs. But the transformation of arid desert landscape to oasis is found to have quite different consequences. Taking an alluvial plain oasis in the north piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains as a case study, we investigate oasis soil properties related to different land-use systems during the transformation of arid desert to oases. Selected land-use systems con- sisted of an annual crop field less than 3 years old, annual crop field 3-6 years old, annual crop field more than 6 years old, perennial crop field less than 4 years old, perennial crop field of 4-6 years old, perennial crop field more than 6 years old, abandoned farmland more than 3 years old, woodland field more than 6 years old, ecological forestation field, natural shrubbery field, desert grass land, and saline or alkaline field. Different land-use systems affect significantly the distribution of sand, silt and clay. Sand content in oasis soil tends to decrease with cultivation years but silt and clay contents tend to be increased in the oasis soils. Soil fertility is higher in the land-use systems under strong human disturbance than under weak human disturbance. Oasis soil nutrients also tend to increase with cultivation years. Soils have a significantly lower salinity in the land-use systems under strong human disturbance than under weak human disturbance. Soil organic matter and nutrients of the annual and perennial crop systems in the oasis tend to increase with cultivation time with the oasis soil acting as a carbon sink. These results show that soils are not degraded and the soil quality is gradually improved under rational land use and scientific management patterns, including uniform exploitation of land resources, effective irrigation systems, sound drainage systems, balanced fertilizer application, crushed straw return to soil and transformation of annual crop fields to perennial ones.
文摘Topsoil soil organic carbon (SOC) that plays an important role in mitigating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO_2) buildup is greatly affected by human activities.To evaluate the influence of land-use changes on SOC stocks in paddy soils,a new algorithm was developed by integrating MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectral-radiometer) and TM/ETM data for timely monitoring the land-use change in Wujiang County.Thereafter,the land-use class-maps derived from MODIS and TM/ETM analyses were further used to estima...
文摘Land-use changes, especially the conversion of native forest vegetation to cropland and plantations in tropical region, can alter soil C and N pools and N availability for plant uptake. Deforestation, followed by shifting cultivation and establishment of rubber tree plantation, is a common land-use change in Xishuangbanna, southwest China. However the influence of this kind of land-use change on soil C and N dynamics in this region remains poorly understood. This study was conducted to assess the effects of land-use change on soil C and N pools. Soil samples were collected on five adjacent plots, which belong to three land-use types including secondary forest-an acuminate banana(Musa itinerans) secondary forest and a male bamboo(Dendrocalamus membranaceae) secondary forest, shifting cultivation, and rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis (H.B.K.) Muell. Arg.) plantation(one plot is 3-year-old, and another is 7-year-old). We measured soil bulk density (BD), pH value, moisture content and concentrations of soil organic carbon(SOC), total soil nitrogen(TSN), and inorganic N(NO - 3-N and NH + 4-N ) at 0—3, 3—20, 20—40 and 40—60 cm depths, and calculated C and N pools in 0—20, 20—40, 40—60, and 0—60 cm soil layers. Compared with the adjacent secondary forests, shifting cultivation and establishment of rubber tree plantations resulted in significant decline in concentrations and stocks of SOC and TSN in 0—20 and 0—60 cm soil layers, and increase in pH and bulk density at 0—3, 3—20, and 20—40 cm depths. Soil moisture content decreased only in 0—20 cm surface soils in shifting cultivation and plantations. The dynamics of mineral N was much more complex, which had different trends among depths and ecosystems. Compared with the secondary forests, SOC stocks in 0—20 cm surface soils in shifting cultivation and rubber tree plantations(3-year-old plantation and 7-year-old plantation) decreased by 34.0%, 33%, and 23%; and TSN stocks decreased by 32 2%, 20.4%, and 20.4%, respectively, whereas the decreases of SOC and TSN stocks in 0—60 cm soil layers were much less. The results indicated that C and N losses were mainly occurred in 0—20 cm surface soil, followed by 20—40 cm layer.
基金The paper is supported by the Research Foundation for OutstandingYoung Teachers , China University of Geosciences ( Wuhan) ( No .CUGQNL0616) Research Foundationfor State Key Laboratory of Geo-logical Processes and Mineral Resources ( No . MGMR2002-02)Hubei Provincial Depart ment of Education (B) .
文摘Urban land provides a suitable location for various economic activities which affect the development of surrounding areas. With rapid industrialization and urbanization, the contradictions in land-use become more noticeable. Urban administrators and decision-makers seek modern methods and technology to provide information support for urban growth. Recently, with the fast development of high-resolution sensor technology, more relevant data can be obtained, which is an advantage in studying the sustainable development of urban land-use. However, these data are only information sources and are a mixture of "information" and "noise". Processing, analysis and information extraction from remote sensing data is necessary to provide useful information. This paper extracts urban land-use information from a high-resolution image by using the multi-feature information of the image objects, and adopts an object-oriented image analysis approach and multi-scale image segmentation technology. A classification and extraction model is set up based on the multi-features of the image objects, in order to contribute to information for reasonable planning and effective management. This new image analysis approach offers a satisfactory solution for extracting information quickly and efficiently.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(71003041)the Fundamental Research Funds of the Central Universities(2662015PY198)
文摘Rural-urban land conversion is a universal phenomenon in the rapid process of economic development and urban growth.The welfare of farmers who lost their farmland attracted a widespread concern within the society and academia.However,further research about differentiated policies according to the characteristics of different farmer groups is still need to be conducted.This article divides the land-lost farmers into three age groups:younger than 45,45-65,and more than 65.It proposes a welfare index system including eight functional areas based on different age groups of affected farmers,taking four districts of Wuhan City as case study area.Fuzzy mathematics method is used to derive the aggregated welfare effect index.Our analysis show that the overall welfare levels of land-lost farmers of all age groups declined,but with a varying degree,with the level of welfare in those farmers who are 45-65 years old,younger than 45 years old,and older than 65 years old decreased by 18.7%,16.6%,and 12.7%,respectively.The direction and degree of effects on the functional activity index varies among different groups.Economic conditions,living environment,health,and social participation of all age groups decrease while social security and housing conditions increase.On the other hand,development opportunities,social communication,and leisure have different changing directions in different age stages.These results call for differentiated and tailor-made compensation policies for land-lost farmers,towards improving the welfare levels of all farmers and reduce the disparity among them.
基金part of the activities of the Australia-China bilateral partnership on climate change between BMRC and NCC and IAM of CMA. Funding from the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO) in supporting the travelling costs of the visits is acknowledged.
文摘This study aims at exploring potential impacts of land-use vegetation change (LUC) on regional climate variability and extremes. Results from a pair of Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) climate model 54-yr (1949-2002) integrations have been analysed. In the model experiments, two vegetation datasets are used, with one representing current vegetation coverage in China and the other approximating its potential coverage without human intervention. The model results show potential impacts of LUC on climate variability and extremes. There are statistically significant changes of surface interannual climate variability simulated by the model. Using different vegetation datasets, significant changes in correlation coeiYicients between tropical Pacific Nifio3.4 SST and precipitation and surface temperature over East Asia are identified, which indicate that changes in vegetation coverage may alter ENSO impacts on regional climate variability. Because of the lack of slowly varying surface processes when forests are removed and less rainfall is received following LUC, the ENSO signal simulated by the model becomes stronger. Results furthermore show that land-use could modulate characteristics of decadal variations in this region. When using current vegetation coverage, the model gives better simulation of observed climate variations in the region than the ease using potential vegetation coverage. In addition, results suggest that land-use could be a potential factor contributing to the prolonged drought in central-west China. Changes in local climate extremes, including precipitation and surface temperature maxima and minima, are also identified. Overall, this study has illustrated the importance of further investigation of such important issues in future land-use studies.
基金National High Technology Research and Development Program of China, No.2008AA12Z106 National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40801166 No.40771198
文摘Nowadays, spatial simulation on land use patterns is one of the key contents of LUCC. Modeling is an important tool for simulating land use patterns due to its ability to integrate measurements of changes in land cover and the associated drivers. The conventional regression model can only analyze the correlation between land use types and driving factors but cannot depict the spatial autocorrelation characteristics. Land uses in Yongding County, which is located in the typical karst mountain areas in northwestern Hunan province, were investigated by means of modeling the spatial autocorrelation of land use types with the purpose of deriving better spatial land use patterns on the basis of terrain characteristics and infrastructural conditions. Through incorporating components describing the spatial autocorrelation into a conventional logistic model, we constructed a regression model (Autologistic model), and used this model to simulate and analyze the spatial land use patterns in Yongding County. According to the comparison with the conventional logistic model without considering the spatial autocorrelation, this model showed better goodness and higher accuracy of fitting. The distribution of arable land, wood land, built-up land and unused land yielded areas under the ROC curves (AUC) was improved to 0.893, 0.940, 0.907 and 0.863 respectively with the autologistic model. It is argued that the improved model based on autologistic method was reasonable to a certain extent. Meanwhile, these analysis results could provide valuable information for modeling future land use change scenarios with actual conditions of local and regional land use, and the probability maps of land use types obtained from this study could also support government decision-making on land use management for Yongding County and other similar areas.