Historical Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of Land Use and Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage in China

Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-RCPs)published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and incorporates the Policy Control Scenario(PCS)regulated by China’s land management policies.The Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model is employed to generate a 1 km resolution land use/cover change(LUCC)dataset for China in 2030 and 2060.Based on the carbon density dataset of China’s terrestrial ecosystems,the study analyses CS changes and their relationship with land use changes spanning from 1990 to 2060.The findings indicate that the quantitative changes in land use in China from 1990 to 2020 are characterised by a reduction in the area proportion of cropland and grassland,along with an increase in the impervious surface and forest area.This changing trend is projected to continue under the PCS from 2020 to 2060.Under the SSPs-RCPs scenario,the proportion of cropland and impervious surface predominantly increases,while the proportions of forest and grassland continuously decrease.Carbon loss in China’s carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 amounted to 0.53×10^(12)kg,primarily due to the reduced area of cropland and grassland.In the SSPs-RCPs scenario,more significant carbon loss occurs,reaching a peak of8.07×10^(12)kg in the SSP4-RCP3.4 scenario.Carbon loss is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal area and the Beijing-TianjinHebei(BTH)region of China,with urbanisation and deforestation identified as the primary drivers.In the future,it is advisable to enhance the protection of forests and grassland while stabilising cropland areas and improving the intensity of urban land.These research findings offer valuable data support for China’s land management policy,land space optimisation,and the achievement of dual-carbon targets.

Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of land use/land cover(LULC)changes in the Jinghe River Basin,China

Understanding the trajectories and driving mechanisms behind land use/land cover(LULC)changes is essential for effective watershed planning and management.This study quantified the net change,exchange,total change,and transfer rate of LULC in the Jinghe River Basin(JRB),China using LULC data from 2000 to 2020.Through trajectory analysis,knowledge maps,chord diagrams,and standard deviation ellipse method,we examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of LULC changes.We further established an index system encompassing natural factors(digital elevation model(DEM),slope,aspect,and curvature),socio-economic factors(gross domestic product(GDP)and population),and accessibility factors(distance from railways,distance from highways,distance from water,and distance from residents)to investigate the driving mechanisms of LULC changes using factor detector and interaction detector in the geographical detector(Geodetector).The key findings indicate that from 2000 to 2020,the JRB experienced significant LULC changes,particularly for farmland,forest,and grassland.During the study period,LULC change trajectories were categorized into stable,early-stage,late-stage,repeated,and continuous change types.Besides the stable change type,the late-stage change type predominated the LULC change trajectories,comprising 83.31% of the total change area.The period 2010-2020 witnessed more active LULC changes compared to the period 2000-2010.The LULC changes exhibited a discrete spatial expansion trend during 2000-2020,predominantly extending from southeast to northwest of the JRB.Influential driving factors on LULC changes included slope,GDP,and distance from highways.The interaction detection results imply either bilinear or nonlinear enhancement for any two driving factors impacting the LULC changes from 2000 to 2020.This comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of LULC changes offers valuable insights for the planning and sustainable management of LULC in the JRB.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/land cover(LULC)changes and its impact on land surface temperature:A case study in New Town Kolkata,eastern India

Rapid urbanization creates complexity,results in dynamic changes in land and environment,and influences the land surface temperature(LST)in fast-developing cities.In this study,we examined the impact of land use/land cover(LULC)changes on LST and determined the intensity of urban heat island(UHI)in New Town Kolkata(a smart city),eastern India,from 1991 to 2021 at 10-a intervals using various series of Landsat multi-spectral and thermal bands.This study used the maximum likelihood algorithm for image classification and other methods like the correlation analysis and hotspot analysis(Getis–Ord Gi^(*) method)to examine the impact of LULC changes on urban thermal environment.This study noticed that the area percentage of built-up land increased rapidly from 21.91%to 45.63%during 1991–2021,with a maximum positive change in built-up land and a maximum negative change in sparse vegetation.The mean temperature significantly increased during the study period(1991–2021),from 16.31℃to 22.48℃in winter,29.18℃to 34.61℃in summer,and 19.18℃to 27.11℃in autumn.The result showed that impervious surfaces contribute to higher LST,whereas vegetation helps decrease it.Poor ecological status has been found in built-up land,and excellent ecological status has been found in vegetation and water body.The hot spot and cold spot areas shifted their locations every decade due to random LULC changes.Even after New Town Kolkata became a smart city,high LST has been observed.Overall,this study indicated that urbanization and changes in LULC patterns can influence the urban thermal environment,and appropriate planning is needed to reduce LST.This study can help policy-makers create sustainable smart cities.

Land use and cover change and influencing factor analysis in the Shiyang River Basin,China

Land use and cover change(LUCC)is the most direct manifestation of the interaction between anthropological activities and the natural environment on Earth's surface,with significant impacts on the environment and social economy.Rapid economic development and climate change have resulted in significant changes in land use and cover.The Shiyang River Basin,located in the eastern part of the Hexi Corridor in China,has undergone significant climate change and LUCC over the past few decades.In this study,we used the random forest classification to obtain the land use and cover datasets of the Shiyang River Basin in 1991,1995,2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020 based on Landsat images.We validated the land use and cover data in 2015 from the random forest classification results(this study),the high-resolution dataset of annual global land cover from 2000 to 2015(AGLC-2000-2015),the global 30 m land cover classification with a fine classification system(GLC_FCS30),and the first Landsat-derived annual China Land Cover Dataset(CLCD)against ground-truth classification results to evaluate the accuracy of the classification results in this study.Furthermore,we explored and compared the spatiotemporal patterns of LUCC in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Shiyang River Basin over the past 30 years,and employed the random forest importance ranking method to analyze the influencing factors of LUCC based on natural(evapotranspiration,precipitation,temperature,and surface soil moisture)and anthropogenic(nighttime light,gross domestic product(GDP),and population)factors.The results indicated that the random forest classification results for land use and cover in the Shiyang River Basin in 2015 outperformed the AGLC-2000-2015,GLC_FCS30,and CLCD datasets in both overall and partial validations.Moreover,the classification results in this study exhibited a high level of agreement with the ground truth features.From 1991 to 2020,the area of bare land exhibited a decreasing trend,with changes primarily occurring in the middle and lower reaches of the basin.The area of grassland initially decreased and then increased,with changes occurring mainly in the upper and middle reaches of the basin.In contrast,the area of cropland initially increased and then decreased,with changes occurring in the middle and lower reaches.The LUCC was influenced by both natural and anthropogenic factors.Climatic factors and population contributed significantly to LUCC,and the importance values of evapotranspiration,precipitation,temperature,and population were 22.12%,32.41%,21.89%,and 19.65%,respectively.Moreover,policy interventions also played an important role.Land use and cover in the Shiyang River Basin exhibited fluctuating changes over the past 30 years,with the ecological environment improving in the last 10 years.This suggests that governance efforts in the study area have had some effects,and the government can continue to move in this direction in the future.The findings can provide crucial insights for related research and regional sustainable development in the Shiyang River Basin and other similar arid and semi-arid areas.

Comprehending drivers of land use land cover change from 1999 to 2021 in the Pithoragarh District,Kumaon Himalaya,Uttarakhand,India

The Himalayan region has been experiencing stark impacts of climate change,demographic and livelihood pattern changes.The analysis of land use and land cover(LULC)change provides insights into the shifts in spatial and temporal patterns of landscape.These changes are the combined effects of anthropogenic and natural/climatic factors.The present study attempts to monitor and comprehend the main drivers behind LULC changes(1999-2021)in the Himalayan region of Pithoragarh district,Uttarakhand.Pithoragarh district is a border district,remotely located in the north-east region of Uttarakhand,India.The study draws upon primary and secondary data sources.A total of 400 household surveys and five group discussions from 38 villages were conducted randomly to understand the climate perception of the local community and the drivers of change.Satellite imagery,CRU(Climatic Research Unit)climate data and climate perception data from the field have been used to comprehensively comprehend,analyze,and discuss the trends and reasons for LULC change.GIS and remote sensing techniques were used to construct LULC maps.This multifaceted approach ensures comprehensive and corroborated information.Five classes were identified and formed viz-cultivation,barren,settlement,snow,and vegetation.Results show that vegetation and builtup have increased whereas cultivation,barren land,and snow cover have decreased.The study further aims to elucidate the causes behind LULC changes in the spatially heterogeneous region,distinguishing between those attributed to human activities,climate shifts,and the interconnected impacts of both.The study provides a comprehensive picture of the study area and delivers a targeted understanding of local drivers and their potential remedies by offering a foundation for formulating sustainable adaptation policies in the region.

Uphill or downhill?Cropland use change and its drivers from the perspective of slope spectrum

The continuous decrease of low-slope cropland resources caused by construction land crowding poses huge threat to regional sustainable development and food security.Slope spectrum analysis of topographic and geomorphic features is considered as a digital terrain analysis method which reflects the macro-topographic features by using micro-topographic factors.However,pieces of studies have extended the concept of slope spectrum in the field of geoscience to construction land to explore its expansion law,while research on the slope trend of cropland from that perspective remains rare.To address the gap,in virtue of spatial analysis and geographically weighted regression(GWR)model,the cropland use change in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB)from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed and the driving factors were explored from the perspective of slope spectrum.Results showed that the slope spectrum curves of cropland area-frequency in the YRB showed a first upward then a downward trend.The change curve of the slope spectrum of cropland in each province(municipality)exhibited various distribution patterns.Quantitative analysis of morphological parameters of cropland slope spectrum revealed that the further down the YRB,the stronger the flattening characteristics,the more obvious the concentration.The province experienced the greatest downhill cropland climbing(CLC)was Shannxi,while province experienced the highest uphill CLC was Zhejiang.The most common cropland use change type in the YRB was horizontal expansion type.The factors affecting average cropland climbing index(ACCI)were quite stable in different periods,while population density(POP)changed from negative to positive during the study period.This research is of practical significance for the rational utilization of cropland at the watershed scale.

Spatiotemporal landscape pattern changes and their effects on land surface temperature in greenbelt with semi-arid climate:A case study of the Erbil City,Iraq

Urban expansion of cities has caused changes in land use and land cover(LULC)in addition to transformations in the spatial characteristics of landscape structure.These alterations have generated heat islands and rise of land surface temperature(LST),which consequently have caused a variety of environmental issues and threated the sustainable development of urban areas.Greenbelts are employed as an urban planning containment policy to regulate urban expansion,safeguard natural open spaces,and serve adaptation and mitigation functions.And they are regarded as a powerful measure for enhancing urban environmental sustainability.Despite the fact that,the relation between landscape structure change and variation of LST has been examined thoroughly in many studies,but there is a limitation concerning this relation in semi-arid climate and in greenbelts as well,with the lacking of comprehensive research combing both aspects.Accordingly,this study investigated the spatiotemporal changes of landscape pattern of LULC and their relationship with variation of LST within an inner greenbelt in the semi-arid Erbil City of northern Iraq.The study utilized remote sensing data to retrieve LST,classified LULC,and calculated landscape metrics for analyzing spatial changes during the study period.The results indicated that both composition and configuration of LULC had an impact on the variation of LST in the study area.The Pearson's correlation showed the significant effect of Vegetation 1 type(VH),cultivated land(CU),and bare soil(BS)on LST,as increase of LST was related to the decrease of VH and the increases of CU and BS,while,neither Vegetation 2 type(VL)nor built-up(BU)had any effects.Additionally,the spatial distribution of LULC also exhibited significant effects on LST,as LST was strongly correlated with landscape indices for VH,CU,and BS.However,for BU,only aggregation index metric affected LST,while none of VL metrics had a relation.The study provides insights for landscape planners and policymakers to not only develop more green spaces in greenbelt but also optimize the spatial landscape patterns to reduce the influence of LST on the urban environment,and further promote sustainable development and enhance well-being in the cities with semi-arid climate.

Impacts of multi-scenario land use change on ecosystem services and ecological security pattern: A case study of the Yellow River Delta

The Yellow River Delta(YRD), a critical economic zone along China's eastern coast, also functions as a vital ecological reserve in the lower Yellow River. Amidst rapid industrialization and urbanization, the region has witnessed significant land use/cover changes(LUCC), impacting ecosystem services(ES) and ecological security patterns(ESP). Investigating LUCC's effects on ES and ESP in the YRD is crucial for ecological security and sustainable development. This study utilized the PLUS model to simulate 2030 land use scenarios, including natural development(NDS), economic development(EDS), and ecological protection scenarios(EPS). Subsequently, the InVEST model and circuit theory were applied to assess ES and ESP under varying LUCC scenarios from 2010 to 2030. Findings indicate:(1) Notable LUCC from 2010 to 2030, marked by decreasing cropland and increasing construction land and water bodies.(2) From 2010 to 2020, improvements were observed in carbon storage,water yield, soil retention, and habitat quality, whereas 2020–2030 saw increases in water yield and soil retention but declines in habitat quality and carbon storage. Among the scenarios, EPS showed superior performance in all four ES.(3) Between 2010 and 2030, ecological sources, corridors, and pinchpoints expanded, displaying significant spatial heterogeneity. The EPS scenario yielded the most substantial increases in ecological sources,corridors, and pinchpoints, totaling 582.89 km^(2), 645.03 km^(2),and 64.43 km^(2), respectively. This study highlights the importance of EPS, offering insightful scientific guidance for the YRD's sustainable development.

Response of ecosystem carbon storage to land use change from 1985 to 2050 in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China

Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this study,we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model based on land use data.We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios:natural development scenario(NDS),ecological protection scenario(EPS),cultivated land protection scenario(CPS),and urban development scenario(UDS)using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector(Geodetector).Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10^(6) t in 2010,followed by a decreasing trend to 2050.The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,and low values in the western and northern parts.Between 1985 and 2020,land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land,woodland,and construction land at the expense of unused land.The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios(ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS)would be lower than that in 2020.Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS,with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors.Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.

Spatially Heterogeneous Response of Carbon Storage to Land Use Changes in Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration, China

Carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems plays a vital role in advancing carbon neutrality. Better understanding of how land use changes affect carbon storage in urban agglomeration will provide valuable guidance for policymakers in developing effective regional conservation policies. Taking the Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration(PRDUA) in China as an example, we examined the heterogeneous response of carbon storage to land use changes in 1990–2018 from a combined view of administrative units and physical entities. The results indicate that the primary change in land use was due to the expansion of construction land(5897.16 km2). The carbon storage in PRDUA decreased from 767.34 Tg C in 1990 to 725.42 Tg C in 2018 with a spatial pattern of high wings and the low middle. The carbon storage loss was largely attributed to construction land expansion(55.74%), followed by forest degradation(54.81%). Changes in carbon storage showed significant divergences in different sized cities and hierarchical boundaries. The coefficients of geographically weighted regression(GWR) reveal that the alteration in carbon storage in Guangzhou City was more responsive to changes in construction land(-0.11) compared to other cities, while that in Shenzhen was mainly affected by the dynamics of forest land(8.32). The change in carbon storage was primarily influenced by the conversion of farmland within urban extent(5.05) and the degradation of forest land in rural areas(5.82). Carbon storage changes were less sensitive to the expansion of construction land in the urban center, urban built-up area, and ex-urban built-up area, with the corresponding GWR coefficients of 0.19, 0.04, and 0.02. This study necessitates the differentiated protection strategies of carbon storage in urban agglomerations.

Exploring the Spatiotemporal Changes and Driving Forces of Ecosystem Services of Zhejiang Coasts,China,Under Sustainable Development Goals

Ecosystem services(ESs)refer to the continuous provisioning of ecosystem goods and services that benefit human beings.Over recent decades,rapid urbanization has exerted significant pressure on coastal ecosystems,resulting in biodiversity and habitat loss,environmental pollution,and the depletion of natural resources.In response to these environmental challenges,the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)were proposed.Given the pressing need to address these issues,understanding the changes in ESs under the SDGs is crucial for formulating specific ecological strategies.In this study,we first analyzed land use and cover change in the Zhejiang coasts of China during 2000–2020.Then,we investigated the spatiotemporal configuration of ESs by integrating carbon storage(CS),soil retention(SR),habitat quality(HQ)and water yield(WY)using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.The driving mechanisms of ESs,which varied by space and time,were also explored using the Geo-detector method.The results revealed that,over the past two decades:1)the Zhejiang coasts have experienced a significant increase of 2783.72 km^(2) in built-up land areas and a continuous decrease in farmland areas due to rapid urbanization;2)owing to higher precipitation,extensive vegetation cover,and reduced anthropogenic disturbances,forests emerge as a crucial land use type for maintaining ecosystem services such as HQ,CS,WY,and SR;3)ESs have generally declined across the entire Zhejiang coasts,with a significant decrease observed in the northern areas and an increase in the southern areas spatially;4)the expansion of built-up land areas emerged as the primary factor affecting ecosystem services,while the vegetation factor has been increasingly significant and is expected to become predominant in the near future.Our study provides insights of understanding of ecosystem service theory and emphasizing the importance of preserving biodiversity for long-term sustainable development,and valuable scientific references to support the ecological management decision-making for local governments.

Assessing Spatio-Temporal Land Cover Changes in Dhund River Basin, Eastern Rajasthan (India), Using Multi-Temporal Landsat Data

Land cover is an impression of natural cover on surface of earth such as bare soil, river, grass etc. and utilization of these natural covers for various human needs and purposes by mankind is defined as land use. Land cover identification, delineation and mapping is important for planning activities, resource management and global monitoring studies while baseline mapping and subsequent monitoring is done by application of land use to get timely information about quantity of land that has been used. The present study has been carried out in Dhund river watershed of Jaipur, Rajasthan which covers an area of about 1828 sq∙km. The minimum and maximum elevation of the area is found to be 214 m and 603 m respectively. Land use and land cover changes of three decades from 1991 to 2021 have been interpreted by using remotes sensing and GIS techniques. ArcGIS software (Arc map 10.2), SOI topographic map, Cartosat-1 DEM and satellite data of Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 have been used for interpretation of eleven classes. The study shows an increase in cultivated land, settlement, waterbody, open forest, plantation and mining due to urbanization because of increasing demands of food, shelter and water while a decrease in dense forest, river, open scrub, wasteland and uncultivated land has also been marked due to destruction of aforementioned by anthropogenic activities such as industrialization resulting in environmental degradation that leads to air, soil and water pollution.

Trends of Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Savannah Ecological of the Protected Area Reserve Partielle de Dosso, Niger

Information on the dynamics of savannah is important to a country's plan to overcome the problems of uncontrolled development and environmental hazards. Taking the reserve partielle de Dosso, Niger as the case study area, this paper analyzed the long-term land use land cover change from 2002 to 2022. Satellite images were processed by using Google Earth Engine (GEE). Therefore, four major land cover classes were identified based on spectral characteristics of Land sat, namely, built-up, vegetation, cropland, bare land and water. The result revealed that barren and built-up areas increased at the expense of vegetation and water. From the four major land use land cover the large area is covered by vegetation which comprises about 192963.5 hectares followed by cropland and water consisting of 32506.43 and 1596.4 hectares respectively. The built-up area gained substantial area (most) during the study period. The reduction in some of the land cover/uses underlines the dangerous trend of the pressure poised by population growth and the changing functionality. Land cover change is influenced by a variety of societal factors operating on several spatial and temporal levels. The area estimates and spatial distributions of the LULC classes produced from the current study will assist local authorities, managers, and other stakeholders in decision-making and planning regarding forest land cover and uses.

Exploring the Forest Cover Changes and Influential Factors of Dongsithouane National Production Forest Area, Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR

The Dongsithouane National Production Forest (DNPF) is one of the largest natural forest areas in Savannakhet, Lao PDR, which has been a vital support for the local community’s livelihood, Recently, significant changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have been observed in this area, leading to a reduction of natural forests. There were two separate methods of this study: firstly, to identify LULC changes across three different periods, spectral imagery from the Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) for the years 2001 and 2011, and the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) for 2021 were used as the primary data sources. The satellite images were preprocessed for various forest classes, including pretreatment of the top of atmosphere reflectance by using QGIS software’s semi-automatic classification plug-in (SCP), and ArcGIS was used for post-classification. A supervised classification approach was applied to the satellite images from 2001, 2011, and 2021 to generate diverse maps of LULC. Secondly, a household survey dataset was used to investigate influential factors. Approximately 220 households were interviewed in order to collect socio-economic information (including data on population growth, increased business activities, location of the area, agriculture land expansion, and need for settlement land). Household survey data was analyzed by using SPSS. Descriptive statistics, including frequency distributions and percentages, were applied to observe characteristics. Additionally, a binary logistic regression model was used to analyze the socioeconomic factors related to LULC change in DNPF. Key findings indicated a decline in natural forest areas within the study site. Specifically, both dry dipterocarp forest (−11.35%) and mixed deciduous forest (−0.18%) decreased from 2001 to 2021. The overall accuracy of the LULC maps was 94%, 86%, and 89% for the years 2001, 2011, and 2021 respectively. In contrast, agricultural land increased significantly by 155.70%, while built-up land, and water bodies increased by 65.54% and 35.33%, respectively. The results also highlighted a significant increase in construction land, up to 65.54%. Furthermore, the study found a correlation between agricultural expansion and a reduction of forest areas, along with an increase in built-up land along the forest areas’ boundaries. Timber exploitation and charcoal production also contributed to the decline in forest cover. The logistic regression model identified significant determinants of LULC change, including the area’s location, agricultural land expansion, increased business activity, and the need for settlement land. These factors have influenced the management of DNPF. Urgent sustainable management practices and actions, including forest ecosystem protection, village agricultural zoning, water source and watershed protection and public awareness, are required to preserve the forest areas of DNPF.

Spatial assessment of forest cover and land-use changes in the Hindu-Kush mountain ranges of northern Pakistan

Anthropogenic activities and natural processes are continuously altering the mountainous environment through deforestation, forest degradation and other land-use changes. It is highly important to assess, monitor and forecast forest cover and other land-use changes for the protection and conservation of mountainous environment. The present study deals with the assessment of forest cover and other land-use changes in the mountain ranges of Dir Kohistan in northern Pakistan, using high resolution multi-temporal SPOT-5 satellite images. The SPOT-5 satellite images of years 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013 were acquired and classified into land-cover units. In addition, forest cover and land-use change detection map was developed using the classified maps of 2004 and 2013. The classified maps were verified through random field samples and Google Earth imagery(Quick birds and SPOT-5). The results showed that during the period 2004 to 2013 the area of forest land decreased by 6.4%, however, area of range land and agriculture land have increased by 22.1% and 2.9%, respectively. Similarly, barren land increased by 1.1%, whereas, area of snow cover/glacier is significantly decreased by 21.3%. The findings from the study will be useful for forestry and landscape planning and can be utilized by the local, provincial and national forest departments; and REDD+ policy makers in Pakistan.

Opportunity Costs of Emissions Caused by Land-Use Changes

Amid the euphoria of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) and REDD+ discussions, the expectations of large financial gains raise the interest of all. A country, however, will only enjoy REDD benefits if the cost of REDD is lower than the benefit. The opportunity cost analysis is an effective tool for assessing the feasibility of REDD+ since the largest portion of costs associated with REDD+ and can help to identify fair compensation for those who change their land use. The opportunity cost analysis has been exercised in Tanjung Jabung Barat (Tanjabar) district-Indonesia to examine the economic-feasibility of carbon emission reduction under different type carbon price scenarios. This study reveals a sharp decline of land-use systems with high carbon-stock and low profitability is obvious. On mineral soil, low carbon-stock and high profitability (mostly oil palm) has increased rapidly, especially in the period 2000-2009. It has become the dominant land-use system. The low-to-medium carbon stock and medium profitability land-use category increased from 1990 to 2005 but declined from 2005 to 2009. The low carbon-stock and low profitability category was constant and the proportion of the area was below 15%. The ex-ante analysis in predicting the potential for future emissions reduction in Tanjabar through REDD+ approaches shows that the cumulative emission of Tanjabar in 2020 is estimated at 61.91 Mg CO2-eq/Ha.Year, while the reduced emission by excluding all land use conversion below $5 threshold is estimated at 51.71 Mg CO2-eq/Ha.Year. This means that there is a potential for 16% emission reduction using $5/ton CO2-eq incentive. Another important finding in this study is that if the price of carbon increases by double to $10, the amount of reduced emission does not change much. This can use as a basis for determining the right amount of incentive for trade-off between economic profitability and climate change mitigation effort in Tanjabar using REDD+ scheme both at seller and buyer perspectives.

Land-Use Changes and Human Driving in and Near the Yangtze River Delta from 1995–2015

We analyzed the characteristics and trends of land-use change in and near the coastal zone of the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) during five periods(1995, 2000 2005, 2010, and 2015) using remotely sensed Landsat imagery. Using automatic supervised classification combined with visual interpretation, we obtained land-use information for five study areas(Nantong, Shanghai, Jiaxing, Ningbo, and Zhoushan). Significant land-use changes have occurred in this area between 1995 and 2015, characterized in particular by large reductions in cultivated land and rapid increases in urbanized land. In addition, land reclamation was very active in this period as an effective supplement to the increased demand for land development: since 1995, 1622 km^2 of land was reclaimed from near-coastal regions in the study area. This increase in urbanization was jointly driven by population, economic, transportation, and policy factors. Urban areas expanded from the center outward in concentric rings, with infrastructure guiding the radial expansion of development along transportation corridors, thus forming a network of connections. Due to the influence of national land regulation policies, the expansion rate of development in the YRD gradually diminished after 2010. This indicates that the area's resource and environmental carrying capacity has reached a saturation stage in which urbanization has transitioned from broad and incremental expansion to the intensive use of land resources.

Land-use changes in the small watershed of the Loess Plateau,hilly-gully region, China

As more and more farmland is converted to forestry, the need for effective decision support regarding the use of land in the fragile ecological environment of the Loess Plateau hilly-gully area. The Luoyugou watershed was chosen as the study area to calculate the single dynamic degree, integrated dynamic degree, and change indexes of land use, as well as the land-use type transition matrix. This was done by interpreting the TM and SPOT images of the Luoyugou watershed in 1986, 1995, and2004 and making statistical analysis. The results of ou statistical analysis show that the conversion of slope farm land to terrace and forest land plays a dominant role in land-use changes in the Luoyugou watershed from 1986 to2004. The land-use changes are mainly driven by popula tion growth, socio-economic development, consume spending, and investment in forest ecology.

Response of Ecosystem Service Value Based on Land Use Changes and Analysis of its Driving Factors in Typical Hilly Region with Red Soil

The contribution rate of ecosystem service value variation was used to analyze the effects of land use changes on the changes of ecosystem service value in Xingguo County during 1996-2005.Grey integrated correlation was employed to explore the contribution level of the indicators such as total population,urbanization level,proportion of primary industry and investment of social fixed assets on ecosystem service value,and the correlation analysis was also carried out.The results showed that the ecosystem service value in Xingguo County during 1996-2005 mainly was woodland,and the decrease of woodland area was the major reason for the sustained reduction of ecosystem service value.With the further increase of market demand and the incentives of local government,the garden area rapidly increased during 2001-2005,and the influence degree of garden towards the changes of ecosystem service value was only second to woodland,ranking No.2.Four socio-economic indicators had different correlation degree with ecosystem service value during the different research periods.Total population,urbanization level and proportion of primary industry had high correlation degree with ecosystem service value,whereas the influence degree of various socio-economic indicators on ecosystem service value was equal with each other day by day.Urbanization level,investment of social fixed assets and total population had significant negative correlation with ecosystem service value,while the proportion of primary industry had positive correlation with ecosystem service value.

Analysis and Simulation for Landscape Pattern Changes of Land Use in Wuzhong District, Suzhou City

Based on analyzing the changes of land use in Wuzhong District, Suzhou City from 2005 to 2008, temporal and spatial changes of land use from 2008 to 2020 were analyzed by using the model CLUE-S and, from the perspective of landscape ecology, future landscape pattern changes of land use in Wuzhong District were also quantitatively discussed by utilizing landscape indices. The results indicated that there was a large variation range of land use in Wuzhong District from 2005 to 2008 and massive farmland and woodland were transformed into construction land and gardens. Guided by the policy of saving intensive land and protecting farmland, future variation range of land use will get smaller obviously. The fragmentation degree for farmland, woodland and water area will get decreased but will get increased relatively for construction land. In general, all landscapes tend to a balanced development.