Driving forces behind the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of land-use and land-cover change:A case study of the Weihe River Basin,China

The impact of socioeconomic development on land-use and land-cover change(LUCC)in river basins varies spatially and temporally.Exploring the spatiotemporal evolutionary trends and drivers of LUCC under regional disparities is the basis for the sustainable development and management of basins.In this study,the Weihe River Basin(WRB)in China was selected as a typical basin,and the WRB was divided into the upstream of the Weihe River Basin(UWRB),the midstream of the Weihe River Basin(MWRB),the downstream of the Weihe River Basin(DWRB),the Jinghe River Basin(JRB),and the Luohe River Basin(LRB).Based on land-use data(cultivated land,forestland,grassland,built-up land,bare land,and water body)from 1985 to 2020,we analyzed the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of LUCC in the WRB using a land-use transfer matrix and a dynamic change model.The driving forces of LUCC in the WRB in different periods were detected using the GeoDetector,and the selected influencing factors included meteorological factors(precipitation and temperature),natural factors(elevation,slope,soil,and distance to rivers),social factors(distance to national highway,distance to railway,distance to provincial highway,and distance to expressway),and human activity factors(population density and gross domestic product(GDP)).The results indicated that the types and intensities of LUCC conversions showed considerable disparities across different sub-basins,where complex conversions among cultivated land,forestland,and grassland occurred in the LRB,JRB,and UWRB,with higher dynamic change before 2000.The conversion of other land-use types to built-up land was concentrated in the UWRB,MWRB,and DWRB,with substantial increases after 2000.Additionally,the driving effects of the influencing factors on LUCC in each sub-basin also exhibited distinct diversity,with the LRB and JRB being influenced by the meteorological and social factors,and the UWRB,MWRB,and DWRB being driven by human activity factors.Moreover,the interaction of these influencing factors indicated an enhanced effect on LUCC.This study confirmed the spatiotemporal heterogeneity effects of socioeconomic status on LUCC in the WRB under regional differences,contributing to the sustainable development of the whole basin by managing sub-basins according to local conditions.

Contamination assessment,source apportionment and associated health risks of PTEs in agricultural soil under five land-use patterns in Sanya,China

To understand the levels of potentially toxic elements(PTEs)contamination in soils and their effects on human health from different agricultural land use in Sanya,China.128 soil samples(64 topsoil samples and corresponding subsoil samples)were collected from the five representative land-use patterns.Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry(ICP-MS),Atomic fluorescence spectrometry(AFS),and Inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry(ICP-OES)were used to determine the content of PTEs(As,Cd,Hg,Cu,Cr,Ni,Pb,Zn,Co,Mo,Sb,and V).Correlation analysis and factor analysis were used to determine the source of PTEs.Geo-accumulation index(I_(geo)),hazard quotient(HQ),and total carcinogenic risk index(TR)were used to measure the PTEs contamination and its relative health impacts.Results showed that the average values of 12 PTEs in topsoil were higher than the Hainan soil geochemical baseline,showing different degrees of PTEs accumulation effect.The concentration of PTEs in the topsoil was lower than those in the subsoil except for Cd and Hg.The I_(geo)revealed that the major accumulated element in soils was As followed by Mo.Source apportionment suggested that parent materials and agricultural practices were the dominant factors for PTEs accumulation in the topsoil.Noncarcinogenic risks of soil samples from five land-use patterns presented a trend of paddy field>dry field>woodland>orchard>garden plot.However,the HQ values of 12 PTEs were less than the recommended limit of HQ=1,representing that there are no non-carcinogenic risks of PTEs for children and adults in the study area.The TR values are within 6.95×10^(-6)-1.38×10^(-5),which corresponds to the low level.Therefore the PTEs in the agricultural soil of the study area show little influence on the health status of the local population.

Long-term impacts of land-use change on dynamics of tropical soil carbon and nitrogen pools

Land-use changes, especially the conversion of native forest vegetation to cropland and plantations in tropical region, can alter soil C and N pools and N availability for plant uptake. Deforestation, followed by shifting cultivation and establishment of rubber tree plantation, is a common land-use change in Xishuangbanna, southwest China. However the influence of this kind of land-use change on soil C and N dynamics in this region remains poorly understood. This study was conducted to assess the effects of land-use change on soil C and N pools. Soil samples were collected on five adjacent plots, which belong to three land-use types including secondary forest-an acuminate banana(Musa itinerans) secondary forest and a male bamboo(Dendrocalamus membranaceae) secondary forest, shifting cultivation, and rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis (H.B.K.) Muell. Arg.) plantation(one plot is 3-year-old, and another is 7-year-old). We measured soil bulk density (BD), pH value, moisture content and concentrations of soil organic carbon(SOC), total soil nitrogen(TSN), and inorganic N(NO - 3-N and NH + 4-N ) at 0—3, 3—20, 20—40 and 40—60 cm depths, and calculated C and N pools in 0—20, 20—40, 40—60, and 0—60 cm soil layers. Compared with the adjacent secondary forests, shifting cultivation and establishment of rubber tree plantations resulted in significant decline in concentrations and stocks of SOC and TSN in 0—20 and 0—60 cm soil layers, and increase in pH and bulk density at 0—3, 3—20, and 20—40 cm depths. Soil moisture content decreased only in 0—20 cm surface soils in shifting cultivation and plantations. The dynamics of mineral N was much more complex, which had different trends among depths and ecosystems. Compared with the secondary forests, SOC stocks in 0—20 cm surface soils in shifting cultivation and rubber tree plantations(3-year-old plantation and 7-year-old plantation) decreased by 34.0%, 33%, and 23%; and TSN stocks decreased by 32 2%, 20.4%, and 20.4%, respectively, whereas the decreases of SOC and TSN stocks in 0—60 cm soil layers were much less. The results indicated that C and N losses were mainly occurred in 0—20 cm surface soil, followed by 20—40 cm layer.

STUDY ON THE SPATIAL PATTERNS OF LAND-USE CHANGE AND ANALYSES OF DRIVING FORCES IN NORTHEASTERN CHINA DURING 1990-2000

Land-use change is an important aspect of global environment change. It is,in a sense, the direct result of human activities influencing our physical environment. Supported bythe dynamic serving system of national resources, including both the environment database and GIStechnology, this paper analyzed the land-use change in northeastern China in the past ten years(1990 ― 2000). It divides northeastern China into five land-use zones based on the dynamic degree(DD) of land-use: woodland/grassland ― arable land conversion zone, dry land ― paddy fieldconversion zone, urban expansion zone, interlocked zone of farming and pasturing, and reclamationand abandoned zone. In the past ten years, land-use change of northeastern China can be generalizedas follows: increase of cropland area was obvious, paddy field and dry land increased by 74. 9 and276. 0 thousand ha respectively; urban area expanded rapidly, area of town and rural residenceincreased by 76. 8 thousand ha; area of forest and grassland decreased sharply with the amount of1399. 0 and 1521. 3 thousand ha respectively; area of water body and unused land increased by 148. 4and 513. 9 thousand ha respectively. Besides a comprehensive analysis of the spatial patterns ofland use, this paper also discusses the driving forces in each land-use dynamic zones. The studyshows that some key biophysical factors affect conspicuously the conversion of different land-usetypes. In this paper, the relationships between land-use conversion and DEM, accumulated temperature(≥10℃) and precipitation were analysed and represented. We conclude that the land-use changes innortheast China resulted from the change of macro social and economic factors and local physicalelements. Rapid population growth and management changes, in some sense, can explain the shaping ofwoodland/grassland ― cropland conversion zone. The conversion from dry land to paddy field in thedry land ― paddy field conversion zone, apart from the physical elements change promoting theexpansion of paddy field, results from two reasons: one is that the implementation of market-economyin China has given fanners the right to decide what they plant and how they plant their crops, theother factor is originated partially from the change of dietary habit with the social and economicdevelopment. The conversion from paddy field to dry land is caused primarily by the shortfall ofirrigation water, which in turn is caused by poor water allocation managed by local governments. Theshaping of the reclamation and abandoned zone is partially due to the lack of environmentprotection consciousness among pioneer settlers. The reason for the conversion from grassland tocropland is the relatively higher profits of farming than that of pasturing in the interlocked zoneof farming and pasturing. In northeastern China, the rapid expansion of built-up areas results fromtwo factors: the first is its small number of towns; the second comes from the huge potential forexpansion of existing towns and cities. It is noticeable that urban expansion in the northeasternChina is characterized by gentle topographic relief and low population density. Physiognomy,transportation and economy exert great influences on the urban expansion.

Impact of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Water Security for Agriculture in Northern China

North China is the most important food basket of China, where the majority of wheat and corn are produced. Most crops grown in North China are irrigated, thus water security is food security. Since the 1980s, drying has been frequently observed, as shown by a reduction in precipitation, cutoff in riverflow, and shrinkage of lakes. This increase in drying cannot be explained by climate change alone. We propose that intensive land-use in this area in recent decades has had a significant impact. The objectives of the study are to develop a quantitative model of the concurrent processes of climate change and land-use in North China, and to estimate the relative contributions of each on the observed drying. We integrated relevant socioeconomic data, land-use data, and climate data in the model, and carried out a detailed multi-temporal （decade, year, day） analysis. Results showed that land-use has greatly changed since 1999. This change is mainly associated with an extremely important 1999 national policy of ＂returning farmland and grazing land to forest and grassland＂. We found an interesting interaction between climate change and land use policy on riverflow, runoff, and evapotranspiration. During 1970s and 1980s, climate change explained more than 80%, while the land-use change explained only 10% of the riverflow change. The relative contributions were 45 and 45% in the 1980s-1990s and 35 and 55% in the 1990s-2000s respectively for climate change and land-use change. Since the 1990s land-use change has also contributed more to runoff change than climate change. The opposite trend was found for changes in evapotranspiration. Water availability for agriculture in northern China is simultaneously stressed by extensive changes in land-use and rapid climate change. Adaptation of ecological principles, such as the ＂returning farmland/grazing land to forest and grassland＂ policy, and other adjustments of economic developmental strategies can be effective tools to mitigate the water shortage problem in northern China and promote sustainable agricultural and food development.

Land-use Change and Socio-economic Driving Forces of Rural Settlement in China from 1996 to 2005

While urbanization has accelerated, the rural population in China has started decreasing in recent years. However, the expansion of rural settlement has not been sufficiently curbed. The questions of why this has happened and who has driven the land-use change(LUC) of rural settlement in China have aroused great interests among researchers. In this paper, it is suggested that population is not always a positive driving force for the LUC of rural settlement in China. Furthermore, socio-economic driving forces other than urbanization, population and industrialization are analyzed. On a national scale, the major driving forces are the per-capita rural housing area and the cultivated land area. On a regional scale, the main driving forces in the eastern China are the house-building capacity of rural households and the per-capita rural housing area; while in the central China, the main driving forces are rural housing investment, the proportion of primary industry employees in the rural working population, and the cultivated land area. For the western China, the main driving forces are rural register population and cultivated land area.

Application of Land-use Change Model in Guiding Regional Planning:A Case Study in Hun-Taizi River Watershed,Northeast China

This paper firstly investigated the land-use and land-cover change （LUCC） in the Hun-Taizi River water- shed, Northeast China from 1988 to 2004 based on remotely sensed images and geographic information systems （GIS） technology. Then, using the famous land-use change model of Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small re- gional extent （CLUE-S）, this paper simulated the land use changes under historical trend （HT）, urban planning （UP） and ecological protection （EP） scenarios considering urban planning and ecological protection over the next 20 years. The simulated results under UP scenario in 2020 were compared with the planning map to assess the feasibility of us- ing land-use change model to guide regional planning. Results show that forest land, dry farmland, paddy, and shrub land were the main land-use categories. Paddy and dry farmland being converted to urban area and rural settlement characterized the land-use change from 1988 to 2004. The main land-use categories changed over time. Landscape-pattem fragmentation will be worse under HT and UP scenarios, but better in EP scenario. The comparing results of simulated map with planning map in 2020 show that land-use change model is powerful tool to guide regional planning. Land-use scenarios can support regional planning and policy-making through analyzing future consequences scientifically.

Effect of land-use changes on chemical and physical properties of soil in western Iran(Zagros oak forests)

The consequence of land-use change from forest to agriculture and other uses has become one of the world’s greatest concerns.The soil,one of the most important components of forests and containing all the required plant nutrients as soluble ions,is highly impacted by these changes.Because vast areas of the Zagros forests in western Iran have changed in use during the last few decades,the present study investigated the effects of landuse changes of forest area to agriculture,orchard,and agroforestry on soil chemical and physical properties.Soil was sampled at four land-use areas:less-disturbed forest areas(control)and agricultural,orchard,and agroforestry areas.Among each of the two forest-use areas(agroforestry and orchard),we selected five trees with similar-sized crowns and sampled under each tree crown at 0-15 and>15-30 cm depths.Five soil samples also were taken in agriculture area at each depth.The findings indicated that during land-use changes,soil sand particles decreased,and clay and silt particles of soil increased,resulting in a fine soil texture.Moreover,the amount of nitrogen(N),phosphorus(P),organic carbon(OC),and electrical conductivity(EC)of soil decreased at both depths due to the decrease in organic matter.Soil pH and magnesium(Mg)level rose during land-use change at both depths except at agricultural sites.Soil potassium(K)content decreased during agricultural use due to the elimination of tree cover.The level of K decreased only at the depth of 0-15 cm because of K dependency on parent materials.Generally,most soil nutrients were affected by plant removal in the conversion.Forest and agricultural soil are distinguishable by their properties,while land-uses such as agroforestry-orchard separated from the others.Soil nutrients were severely affected by the decrease and elimination of tree cover,plowing,and continuous harvesting,resulting in a decline in soil quality and fertility.

Modelling the Effects of Land-use Change on Runoff and Sediment Yield in the Weicheng River Watershed, Southwest China

As a major sediment area in the upper Yangtze River, Jialing River basin experienced substantial land-use changes, many water conservancy projects were constructed from the 1980 s onward to promote water and soil conservation. The water and sediment yield at the watershed outlet was strongly affected by these water conservation works, including ponds and reservoirs, which should be considered in the modelling. In this study, based on the observed data of the Weicheng River catchment, the relationships between precipitation, runoff, vegetation, topography and sediment yield were analyzed, a distributed runoff and sediment yield model(WSTD-SED) was developed, and the hydrological processes of different land-use scenarios were simulated by using the model. The main results are summarized as follows: 1) there is an alternating characteristic in river channels and reservoirs in the Jialing River hilly area, with scour occurring in wet years and deposit occurring in dry years. 2) Most of the sediment deposited in river channels and reservoirs is carried off by the largest flood in the year. 3) The model yielded plausible results for runoff and sediment yield dynamics without the need of calibration, and the WSTD-SED model could be usedto obtain qualitative estimates on the effects of land use change scenarios. 4) The modelling results suggest that a 10% increase in cropland(dry land) reforestation results in a 0.7% decrease in runoff and 1.5% decrease in sediment yield.

Impacts of land-use change on ecosystem service value in Changsha,China

Changsha,a typical city in central China,was selected as the study area to assess the variations of ecosystem service value on the basis of land-use change. The analysis not only included the whole city but also the urban district where the landscape changed more rapidly in the center of the city. Two LANDSAT TM data sets in 1986 and 2000 and land use data of five urban districts from 1995 to 2005 were used to estimate the changes in the size of six land use categories. Meanwhile,previously published value coefficients were used to detect the changes in the value of ecosystem services delivered by each land category. The result shows that the total value of ecosystem services in Changsha declines from $1 009.28 million per year in 1986 to $938.11 million per year in 2000. This decline is largely attributable to the increase of construction land,and the conversion from woodland and water body to cropland to keep the crop production. In the five districts,there is $6.19 million decline in ecosystem service value between 1995 and 2005. Yuelu District has the highest unit ecosystem service value while Yuhua District has the lowest one. This may be attributed to the greater conversion from cropland and grassland to woodland and water body with the increase of construction land in Yuelu District. It is suggested that the increase rate of construction land should be controlled rigorously and the area of woodland and water body should be increased or at least retained in the study area.

Telecoupled land-use changes in distant countries

International food trade has become a key driving force of agricultural land-use changes in trading countries, which has influenced food production and the global environment. Researchers have studied agricultural land-use changes and related environmental issues across multi-trading countries together, but most studies rely on statistic data without spatial attributes. However, agricultural land-use changes are spatially heterogeneous. Uncovering spatial attributes can reveal more critical information that is of scientific significance and has policy implications for enhancing food security and protecting the environment. Based on an integrated framework of telecoupling （socioeconomic and environmental interactions over distances）, we studied spatial attributes of soybean land changes within and among trading countries at the same time. Three distant countries -- Brazil, China, and the United States -- constitute an excellent example of telecoupled systems through the process of soybean trade. Our results presented the spatial distribution of soybean land changes-- highlighting the hotspots of soybean gain and soybean loss, and indicated these changes were spatially clustered, different across multi-spatial scales, and varied among the trading countries. Assisted by the results, global challenges like food security and biodiversity loss within and among trading countries can be targeted and managed efficiently. Our work provides simul- taneously spatial information for understanding agricultural land-use changes caused by international food trade globally, highlights the needs of coordination among trading countries, and promotes global sustainability.

Dynamics of soil organic carbon following land-use change:insights from stable C-isotope analysis in black soil of Northeast China

Intensive soil tillage is a significant factor in soil organic matter decline in cultivated soils. Both cultivation abandonment and foregoing tillage have been encouraged in the past 30 years to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and soil erosion. However, the dynamic processes of soil organic carbon (SOC) in areas of either continuous cultivation or abandonment remain unclear and inconsistent.Our aims were to assess and model the dynamic processes of SOC under continuous tillage and after cultivation abandonment in the black soil of Northeast China. Soil profiles were collected of cultivated or abandoned land with cultivation history of 0–100 years. An isotope mass balance equation was used to calculate the proportion of SOC derived from corn debris (C_4) and from natural vegetation (C_3) to deduce the dynamic process. Approximately 40% of SOC in the natural surface soil (0–10 cm) was eroded in the first 5 years of cultivation, increasing to about 75% within 40 years, before a slow recovery. C_4 above 30 cm soil depth increased by 4.5%–5% or 0.11–0.12 g·kg^(-1) on average per year under continuous cultivation, while it decreased by approximately 0.34% annually in the surface soil after cultivation abandonment.The increase in the percentage of C_4 was fitted to a linear equation with given intercepts in the upper 30 cm of soil in cultivated land. A significant relationship between the change of C_4 and time was found only in the surface soil after abandonment of cultivation. These results demonstrate the loss and accumulation of corn-derived SOC in surface black soil of Northeast China under continuous tillage or cultivation abandonment.

Impacts of Land-use and Land-cover Changes on River Runoff in Yellow River Basin for Period of 1956–2012

River runoff is affected by many factors, including long-term effects such as climate change that alter rainfall-runoff relationships, and short-term effects related to human intervention(e.g., dam construction, land-use and land-cover change(LUCC)). Discharge from the Yellow River system has been modified in numerous ways over the past century, not only as a result of increased demands for water from agriculture and industry, but also due to hydrological disturbance from LUCC, climate change and the construction of dams. The combined effect of these disturbances may have led to water shortages. Considering that there has been little change in long-term precipitation, dramatic decreases in water discharge may be attributed mainly to human activities, such as water usage, water transportation and dam construction. LUCC may also affect water availability, but the relative contribution of LUCC to changing discharge is unclear. In this study, the impact of LUCC on natural discharge(not including anthropogenic usage) is quantified using an attribution approach based on satellite land cover and discharge data. A retention parameter is used to relate LUCC to changes in discharge. We find that LUCC is the primary factor, and more dominant than climate change, in driving the reduction in discharge during 1956–2012, especially from the mid-1980 s to the end-1990 s. The ratio of each land class to total basin area changed significantly over the study period. Forestland and cropland increased by about 0.58% and 1.41%, respectively, and unused land decreased by 1.16%. Together, these variations resulted in changes in the retention parameter, and runoff generation showed a significant decrease after the mid-1980 s. Our findings highlight the importance of LUCC to runoff generation at the basin scale, and improve our understanding of the influence of LUCC on basin-scale hydrology.

ANALYSIS ON LAND-USE CHANGE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DRIVING FACTORS IN H AINAN ISLAND DURING 50YEARS FROM 1950TO 1999

Land-use change is an important part of global change research(IGBP,1990-1992).But the majority of researches focus on the natural dr iving force of land use change.In thi s paper,the authors studied the rela tionship be-tween socio-economic driving facto rs and land-use change with time series in Hainan Island.Based on the stud y for the evolution of administrative system and policies in Hainan Island and the comprehensive analysis on the socia l economy da-ta and changes of social policies,th e socio-economic policies,human activities and land use of Hainan can be divided into three periods with different ch aracters:period from1950to 1978ch aracterized by the planning economi c system,peri-od from 1978to 1988characterized by the transfer of economic system and a doption of open policy,new stage fro m 1988to 1998with high growing speed.On th e other hand the authors describe the character of the periods and land-use change process affected by socio-economic factors.This paper provides an important method for evaluating the development and changes of Hainan social economy dur ing the 50years from 1950to 1999and f orecasting the development of Hainan so-cial economy in future.

Land-Use Changes and Human Driving in and Near the Yangtze River Delta from 1995–2015

We analyzed the characteristics and trends of land-use change in and near the coastal zone of the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) during five periods(1995, 2000 2005, 2010, and 2015) using remotely sensed Landsat imagery. Using automatic supervised classification combined with visual interpretation, we obtained land-use information for five study areas(Nantong, Shanghai, Jiaxing, Ningbo, and Zhoushan). Significant land-use changes have occurred in this area between 1995 and 2015, characterized in particular by large reductions in cultivated land and rapid increases in urbanized land. In addition, land reclamation was very active in this period as an effective supplement to the increased demand for land development: since 1995, 1622 km^2 of land was reclaimed from near-coastal regions in the study area. This increase in urbanization was jointly driven by population, economic, transportation, and policy factors. Urban areas expanded from the center outward in concentric rings, with infrastructure guiding the radial expansion of development along transportation corridors, thus forming a network of connections. Due to the influence of national land regulation policies, the expansion rate of development in the YRD gradually diminished after 2010. This indicates that the area's resource and environmental carrying capacity has reached a saturation stage in which urbanization has transitioned from broad and incremental expansion to the intensive use of land resources.

Detection of Land-Use and Surface Temperature Change at Different Resolutions

Understanding the relationship between land-use/land-cover change (LULCC) and environment is seriously important to manage arid land. However, information on how environmental factors influence the LULCC patterns at different scales in arid area is lacking. This paper investigates the application of RS/GIS for detecting LULCC and assessing its impact on surface temperature in the Ismailia Governorate, Egypt. Landsat images have been utilized to quantify the changes from 1984 to 2011. The images were pre-processed using calibration techniques and the geometric and atmos- pheric corrections were performed. Different ratios, indices, and optimized index factor were implemented to decide the best band combination. Supervised classification using Maximum Likelihood technique and spatial reclassification have been employed. Six land-use/land-cover categories (urban, vegetation, waterlogged 1 and 2, bare land, and water) were identified. The highest overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient is 93.04% and 80.65%, respectively. The integration of RS and GIS was further applied to examine the impact of land-use change on surface temperatures. The results revealed a notable land-use change in the study area. The Built-up area has rapidly increased in Ismailia during the 27 years pe- riod. The built-up area (37.65?C in 1984 and 43.876?C in 2011) and Barren land (37.34?C in 1984 and 42.801?C in 2011) exhibit the highest surface radiant temperature, while vegetated surfaces (28.73?C in 1984 and 32.96?C in 2011), water (25.94?C in 1984 and 27.32?C in 2011), waterlogged1 (34.54?C in 1984 and 35.60?C in 2011) recorded low radiant temperature respectively. Waterlogged2 is the class that shows an unexpected radiant temperature (26.38?C in 1984 and 27.75?C in 2011). The urban development between 1984 and 2011 has given rise to an average of 6.23?C in surface radiant temperature. During 27 years, the change rate of land-use types which are decreased are barren land (1.12% an- nually) and waterlogged1 and 2 (0.76 and 6.61% annually). The area of vegetation, water, and built-up are increased by 0.98%, 0.82%, and 0.61% per year, respectively.

Land-use Change and Ecological Footprint Analysis of Harbin City

Appraisaling the land-use change degree of urban land objectively, analyzing the reasons, and proposing the countermeasures have important meanings to promote land sustainable development. The article analyzed the dynamic change of land-use ecological footprint in Harbin City from 1996 to 2006. Through the measurement of ecological footprint to assess the social impact and the extent of sustainable land-use. The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint in Harbin had increased year by year, while the per capita ecological carrying capacity had decreased, the per capita ecological deficit was increasing, and land-use in Harbin City was in an overload status. Finally, reasonable land-use proposals were proposed.

Modeling the Impact of Land-Use Change on Water Budget of Gaza Strip

Gaza has a water crisis and faces serious challenges for the future sustainability of its water resources. Land-use change has an expected effect on water budget of the Gaza Strip. Three different land cover scenarios;the and cover of 2007, land cover of 2020, and full urbanization land cover were simulated independently using The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool which work under the umbrella of GIS. In general, the simulation results indicate that land-cover changes will significantly alter the hydrologic response of Gaza region. Percolation is expected to decrease in all options as urban areas are expanded where as the simulated surface runoff reflected a relative departure from the first scenario comparing with other scenarios. In the baseline scenario (2007), the simulated surface runoff and percolation represent 12% and 41% respectively from the water budget components of the Gaza Strip. In year 2020, these values were expected by the simulation results to be 20% and 27% respectively. A unique linear relationship between the relative change in urban area and the corresponding relative change in surface water has been investigated from the simulation results. The analysis of the three urbanization scenarios can give decision makers better understand for the future situation and assist them to advance towards achieving sustainable development planning for water resources system in the Gaza Strip.

Using classification assignment rules to assess land-use change impacts on forest biodiversity at local-to-national scales

Background： Ecosystem representation is one key component in assessing the biodiversity impacts of land-use changes that will irrevocably alter natural ecosystems. We show how detailed vegetation plot data can be used to assess the potential impact of inundation by a proposed hydroelectricity dam in the Mokihinui gorge, New Zealand, on representation of natural forests. Specifically we ask： 1） How well are the types of forest represented Locally, regionally, and nationally; and 2） How does the number of distinct communities （i.e. beta diversity） in the target catchment compare with other catchments nationally？ Methods： For local and regional comparisons plant species composition was recorded on 45 objectively located 400 m2 vegetation plots established in each of three gorges, with one being the proposed inundation area of the Mokihinui lower gorge. The fuzzy classification framework of noise clustering was used to assign these plots to a specific alliance and association of a pre-existing national-scale classification. NationaLly, we examined the relationship between the number of alliances and associations in a catchment and either catchment size or the number of plots per catchment by fitting Generalised Additive Models. Results： The four alliances and five associations that were observed in the Mokihinui lower gorge arepresent in the region but limited locally. One association was narrowly distributed nationally, but is the mostfrequent association in the Mokihinui lower gorge; inundation may have consequences of national importance to its long-term persistence. That the Mokihinui lower gorge area had nearly twice as many plots that could not be assigned to pre- existing alliances and associations than either the Mokihinui upper or the Karamea lower gorges and proportionally more than the national dataset emphasises the compositional distinctiveness of this gorge. These outlier plots in the Mokihinui lower gorge may be unsorted assemblages of species or reflect sampling bias or that native- dominated woody riparian vegetation is rare on the landscape. At a national scale, the Mokihinui catchment has a higher diversity of forest alliances and associations （i.e. beta-diversity） than predicted based on catchment size and sampling intensity. Conclusions： Our analytical approach demonstrates one transparent solution to a common conservation planning problem： assessing how well ecosystems that will be destroyed by a proposed land-use change are represented using a multi-scale spatial and compositional framework. We provide a useful tool for assessing potential consequences of land-use change that can help guide decision making.

A Methodology Framework for Regional Land-use Change Studies based on Landsat TM images: A Case Study in Northeast China

Land-use change is an important aspect of global environment change. It is, in a sense, the direct result of human activities influencing our physical environment. This paper analyzed the land-use change in Northeast China during 1985-2000 based on Landsat TM images. It divides Northeast China into five land-use zones based on the dynamic degree model of land-use: woodland/grassland-arable land conversion zone, dry land-paddy field conversion zone; urban expansion zone, interlocked zone of farming and pasturing and reclamation and abandon zone. The findings include the obvious increase of cropland area, paddy field and dry land increased by 75 and 276 thousand hm2 respectively; urban areas expanded rapidly, areas of town and rural residence increased by 76.8 thousand hm2; areas of forests and grassland decreased sharply with the amounts of 1399 and 1521 thousand hm2 respectively; areas of water body and unused land increased by 148 and 514 thousand hm2 respectively. This paper also discusses the