Potential Impacts of Land-Use on Climate Variability and Extremes

This study aims at exploring potential impacts of land-use vegetation change （LUC） on regional climate variability and extremes. Results from a pair of Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre （BMRC） climate model 54-yr （1949-2002） integrations have been analysed. In the model experiments, two vegetation datasets are used, with one representing current vegetation coverage in China and the other approximating its potential coverage without human intervention. The model results show potential impacts of LUC on climate variability and extremes. There are statistically significant changes of surface interannual climate variability simulated by the model. Using different vegetation datasets, significant changes in correlation coeiYicients between tropical Pacific Nifio3.4 SST and precipitation and surface temperature over East Asia are identified, which indicate that changes in vegetation coverage may alter ENSO impacts on regional climate variability. Because of the lack of slowly varying surface processes when forests are removed and less rainfall is received following LUC, the ENSO signal simulated by the model becomes stronger. Results furthermore show that land-use could modulate characteristics of decadal variations in this region. When using current vegetation coverage, the model gives better simulation of observed climate variations in the region than the ease using potential vegetation coverage. In addition, results suggest that land-use could be a potential factor contributing to the prolonged drought in central-west China. Changes in local climate extremes, including precipitation and surface temperature maxima and minima, are also identified. Overall, this study has illustrated the importance of further investigation of such important issues in future land-use studies.

Dynamic Variability in Daily Temperature Extremes and Their Relationships with Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation During 1960–2015 in Xinjiang, China

Climate changes are likely to increase the risk of numerous extreme weather events throughout the world.The objectives of this study were to investigate and analyze the temporal-spatial variability patterns of temperature extremes based on daily maximum(TX)and minimum temperature(TN)data collected from 49 meteorological stations in Xinjiang of China during 1960–2015.These temperature data were also used to assess the impacts of altitude on the temperature extremes.Additionally,possible teleconnections with the large-scale circulation pattern(the El Nino-Southern Oscillation,ENSO and Arctic Oscillation,AO)were investigated.Results showed that all percentile indices had trends consistent with warming in most parts of Xinjiang during 1960–2015,but the warming was more pronounced for indices derived from TN compared to those from TX.The minimum TN and maximum TX increased at rates of 0.16℃/10 yr and 0.59℃/10 yr,respectively during 1960–2015.Accordingly,the diurnal temperature range showed a significant decreasing trend of–0.23℃/10 yr for the whole study area.The frequency of the annual average of the warm events showed significant increasing trends while that of the cold events presented decreasing trends.Over the same period,the number of frost days showed a statistically significant decreasing trend of–3.37 d/10 yr.The number of the summer days and the growing season showed significant increasing trends at rates of 1.96 and 2.74 d/10 yr,respectively.The abrupt change year of each index was from the 1980 s to the 1990 s,showing that this periodic interval was a transitional phase between cold and warm climate change.Significant correlations of temperature extremes and elevation included the trends of tropical nights,growing season frequency,and cold spell duration indicator.This result also indicated the clear and complex local influence on climatic extremes.In addition,the relationship between each index of the temperature extremes with large-scale atmospheric circulation(ENSO and AO)demonstrated that the influence of ENSO on each index of the temperature extremes was greater than that of the AO in Xinjiang.

Amplification effect of intra-seasonal variability of soil moisture on heat extremes over Eurasia

Drying soil has been conducive to a high frequency of extreme high-temperature events over many regions worldwide in recent decades.However,changes in the intraseasonal variability of soil moisture can also influence the likelihood of extremely high temperatures.Although previous investigators have examined the association between extremely high temperatures and large-scale atmospheric circulation variability,the role of land-atmosphere coupling dominated by soil moisture variability in extremely high temperatures,particularly over the Eurasian continent,is not well understood.In this study,on the basis of the Land Surface,Snow,and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project,we found that land-atmosphere feedback amplified the variability of soil moisture in most regions of Eurasia during summer from 1980 to 2014.This amplification of soil moisture variability is closely correlated with more intensive intraseasonal variability of surface air temperature and more frequent occurrences of extreme high-temperature events,particularly in Europe,Siberia,Northeast Asia,and the Indochina Peninsula.This correlation implies that increasing the intraseasonal variability of soil moisture results in a high likelihood of heat extremes during summer in most parts of Eurasia except Asian desert areas.On the intraseasonal timescale,the land-atmosphere coupling increases the variability of surface sensible heat flux and net long-wave radiation heating the atmosphere by intensifying the soil moisture variability,thus amplifying the variability of surface air temperature and enhancing the extreme high-temperature days.This finding demonstrates the importance of changes in intraseasonal soil moisture variability for the increasing likelihood of heat extremes in summer.

Linkage of the Decadal Variability of Extreme Summer Heat in North China with the IPOD since 1981

Extreme summer heat can have serious socioeconomic impacts in North China.Here,we explore the decadal variability of the number of extreme heat days in early-to-mid summer(June and July)and a related potential mechanism consistent with the major seasonal occurrence period of extreme heat events in North China(NCSH).Observational analyses show significant decadal variability in NCSH for 1981–2021,potentially linked to the Indo-Pacific warm pool and Northwest Pacific Ocean dipole(IPOD)in early-to-mid summer.Dynamic diagnostic analysis and the linear baroclinic model(LBM)show that the positive IPOD in early-to-mid summer can excite upward vertical wind anomalies in the South China-East China Sea region,shifting the position of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)to the east or weakening the degree of its control of the South China-East China Sea region,thus generating a positive geopotential height quadrupole(EAWPQ)pattern in the East Asia-Northwest Pacific region.Subsequently,the EAWPQ can cause air compression(expansion)over North China by regulating the tropospheric thickness anomalies in North China,thus increasing(decreasing)NCSH.Finally,an empirical model that incorporates the linear trend can better simulate the decadal NCSH compared to an empirical model based solely on the IPOD index,suggesting that the decadal variability of NCSH may be a combined contribution of the decadal IPOD and external linear forcing.

2021:A Year of Unprecedented Climate Extremes in Eastern Asia,North America,and Europe

The year 2021 was recorded as the 6th warmest since 1880.In addition to large-scale warming,2021 will be remembered for its unprecedented climate extremes.Here,a review of selected high-impact climate extremes in 2021,with a focus on China,along with an extension to extreme events in North America and Europe is presented.Nine extreme events that occurred in 2021 in China are highlighted,including a rapid transition from cold to warm extremes and sandstorms in spring,consecutive drought in South China and severe thunderstorms in eastern China in the first half of the year,extremely heavy rainfall over Henan Province and Hubei Province during summer,as well as heatwaves,persistent heavy rainfall,and a cold surge during fall.Potential links of extremes in China to four global-scale climate extremes and the underlying physical mechanisms are discussed here,providing insights to understand climate extremes from a global perspective.This serves as a reference for climate event attribution,process understanding,and high-resolution modeling of extreme events.

Separating the impacts of climate variability,land-use change and large reservoir operations on streamflow in the Yangtze River basin,China,using a hydrological modeling approach

Separating the individual effects of climate variability and human activities on streamflow is more important than just knowing their combined effects.In this paper,using a scenario-based hydrological simulation approach,the streamflow changes caused by climate variability and two different types of human activities(i.e.land-use change and large reservoirs operations)as well as the contribution rates of these three factors over 272 sub-basins in the Yangtze river basin were quantified and compared among 5 different periods(i.e.1988–1992(P1),1993–1997(P2),1998–2002(P3),2003–2007(P4)and 2008–2012(P5)).Results demonstrate that,at the annual scale,climate variability played a leading role in the change in outflow of most sub-basins.With regard to the seasonal variations in discharge at Datong station,climate factors played a predominant role during P1-P2 and P2-P3.Since the Three Gorges Reservoir began operating in 2003,the discharge was enhanced by reservoirs in January-May and reduced by reservoirs in JulyDecember.Reservoir and climate factors codetermined seasonal streamflow change during P3-P4 and P4-P5.Land-use change made the smallest contribution to seasonal discharge fluctuations.This study can support decision-making in regional water resources planning and management.

Opposing Trends of Winter Cold Extremes over Eastern Eurasia and North America under Recent Arctic Warming

Under recent Arctic warming,boreal winters have witnessed severe cold surges over both Eurasia and North America,bringing about serious social and economic impacts.Here,we investigated the changes in daily surface air temperature(SAT)variability during the rapid Arctic warming period of 1988/89–2015/16,and found the daily SAT variance,mainly contributed by the sub-seasonal component,shows an increasing and decreasing trend over eastern Eurasia and North America,respectively.Increasing cold extremes(defined as days with daily SAT anomalies below 1.5 standard deviations)dominated the increase of the daily SAT variability over eastern Eurasia,while decreasing cold extremes dominated the decrease of the daily SAT variability over North America.The circulation regime of cold extremes over eastern Eurasia(North America)is characterized by an enhanced high-pressure ridge over the Urals(Alaska)and surface Siberian(Canadian)high.The data analyses and model simulations show the recent strengthening of the high-pressure ridge over the Urals was associated with warming of the Barents–Kara seas in the Arctic region,while the high-pressure ridge over Alaska was influenced by the offset effect of Arctic warming over the East Siberian–Chukchi seas and the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)–like sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies over the North Pacific.The transition of the PDO-like SST anomalies from a positive to negative phase cancelled the impact of Arctic warming,reduced the occurrence of extreme cold days,and possibly resulted in the decreasing trend of daily SAT variability in North America.The multi-ensemble simulations of climate models confirmed the regional Arctic warming as the driver of the increasing SAT variance over eastern Eurasia and North America and the overwhelming effect of SST forcing on the decreasing SAT variance over North America.Therefore,the regional response of winter cold extremes at midlatitudes to the Arctic warming could be different due to the distinct impact of decadal SST anomalies.

Impacts of climate variability and extremes on global net primary production in the first decade of the 21st century

A wide variety of studies have estimated the magnitude of global terrestrial net primary production （NPP）, but its variations, both spatially and temporally, still remain uncertain. By using an improved process-based terrestrial ecosystem model （DLEM, Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model）, we provide an estimate of global terrestrial NPP induced by multiple environmental factors and examine the response of terrestrial NPP to climate variability at biome and global levels and along latitudes throughout the first decade of the 21st century. The model simulation estimates an average global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 Pg C yr-1 during 2000-2009, varying from 52.8 Pg C yr-1 in the dry year of 2002 to 56.4 Pg C yr-1 in the wet year of 2008. In wet years, a large increase in terrestrial NPP compared to the decadal mean was prevalent in Amazonia, Africa and Australia. In dry years, however, we found a 3.2% reduction in global terrestrial NPP compared to the decadal mean, primarily due to limited moisture supply in tropical regions. At a global level, precipitation explained approximately 63% of the variation in terrestrial NPP, while the rest was attributed to changes in temperature and other environmental factors. Precipitation was the major factor determining inter-annual variation in terrestrial NPP in low-latitude regions. However, in midand high-latitude regions, temperature variability largely controlled the magnitude of terrestrial NPP. Our results imply that pro- jected climate warming and increasing climate extreme events would alter the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of global terrestrial NPP.

Recent Extremes of Drought and Flooding in Amazonia: Vulnerabilities and Human Adaptation

The present study focuses on the impacts of extreme drought and flooding situations in Amazonia, using level/discharge data from some rivers in the Amazon region as indicators of impacts. The last 10 years have featured various “once in a century” droughts and floods in the Amazon basin, which have affected human and natural systems in the region. We assess a history of such hazards based on river data, and discuss some of the observed impacts in terms of vulnerability of human and natural systems, as well as some of adaptation strategies implemented by regional and local governments to cope with them. A critical perspective of mitigation of drought and flood policies in Amazonia suggests that they have been mostly ineffective in reducing vulnerability for the majority of the population, constituting, perhaps, examples of maladaptation via the undermining of resilience.

Multi-Objective Optimization Algorithm for Grouping Decision Variables Based on Extreme Point Pareto Frontier

The existing algorithms for solving multi-objective optimization problems fall into three main categories:Decomposition-based,dominance-based,and indicator-based.Traditional multi-objective optimization problemsmainly focus on objectives,treating decision variables as a total variable to solve the problem without consideringthe critical role of decision variables in objective optimization.As seen,a variety of decision variable groupingalgorithms have been proposed.However,these algorithms are relatively broad for the changes of most decisionvariables in the evolution process and are time-consuming in the process of finding the Pareto frontier.To solvethese problems,a multi-objective optimization algorithm for grouping decision variables based on extreme pointPareto frontier(MOEA-DV/EPF)is proposed.This algorithm adopts a preprocessing rule to solve the Paretooptimal solution set of extreme points generated by simultaneous evolution in various target directions,obtainsthe basic Pareto front surface to determine the convergence effect,and analyzes the convergence and distributioneffects of decision variables.In the later stages of algorithm optimization,different mutation strategies are adoptedaccording to the nature of the decision variables to speed up the rate of evolution to obtain excellent individuals,thusenhancing the performance of the algorithm.Evaluation validation of the test functions shows that this algorithmcan solve the multi-objective optimization problem more efficiently.

Climate extremes,variability,and trade shape biogeographical patterns of alien species

Understanding how alien species assemble is crucial for predicting changes to community structure caused by biological invasions and for directing management strategies for alien species,but patterns and drivers of alien species assemblages remain poorly understood relative to native species.Climate has been suggested as a crucial filter of invasion-driven homogenization of biodiversity.However,it remains unclear which climatic factors drive the assemblage of alien species.Here,we compiled global data at both grid scale(2,653 native and 2,806 current grids with a resolution of 2°x 2°)and administrative scale(271 native and 297 current nations and sub-nations)on the distributions of 361 alien amphibians and reptiles(herpetofauna),the most threatened vertebrate group on the planet.We found that geographical distance,proxy for natural dispersal barriers,was the dominant variable contributing to alien herpetofaunal assemblage in native ranges.In contrast,climatic factors explained more unique variation in alien herpetofaunal assemblage after than before invasions.This pattern was driven by extremely high temperatures and precipitation seasonality,2 hallmarks of global climate change,and bilateral trade which can account for the alien assemblage after invasions.Our results indicated that human-assisted species introductions combined with climate change may accelerate the reorganization of global species distributions.

Assessment of Intra-Seasonal Variability and Trends of Precipitations in a Climate Change Framework in West Africa

Climate change has led human beings to take an interest in the study of meteorological and climatic phenomena. In fact, the main impact of climate change on different sectors of society is caused by extreme events since the occurrence of extreme events leads to more impact related to change in mean climate. Unfortunately, the West African region is vulnerable to extreme rainfall impact because its economy is based on rain-fed agriculture. This study examined the seasonal variability of extreme rainfall in West Africa. Eight (8) climate indices were chosen from among the 27 defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was used to assess the seasonal trends. The indices of the same types (frequency or intensity) were compared to assess the intra-seasonal variation of extreme precipitation. The results indicate that, regardless of the season, the Gulf of Guinea receives more rainfall than the Sahel. This phenomenon is due to the fact that the coastal part of West Africa is under the influence of evaporation which is observed at the Atlantic Ocean and during the monsoon, while the other part is dominated by the desert. Mann-Kendall’s test revealed upward and downward trends during each season. The increase in extreme rainfall trends in the number of consecutive dry days suggests that droughts, due to global warming, could be observed and could have severe consequences in terms of water availability, energy supply, agricultural yields and ecosystems in West Africa. In addition, it can lead to the loss of biodiversity and health issues. It is therefore essential for policymakers or decisions makers to determine strategies and mitigation measures against climate change and its impacts on populations.

Spatiotemporal Variability in Extreme Temperature Events in an Arid-Semiarid Region of China and Their Teleconnections with Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation

With a warming climate,temperature extremes have been a main global issue in recent decades due to their potential influence on the sustainable development of human life and natural ecosystems.In this study,12 indicators of extreme temperature events are used to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution,periodic structure and teleconnections with large-scale atmospheric circulation in Xinjiang,Northwest China by combining wavelet coherence(WTC) analysis based on continuous wavelet transform(CWT) analysis with the sequential Mann-Kendall test.We find that over the past six decades,the climate in Xinjiang has become warmer and has suffered from increases in the frequency of warm extremes and decreases in the frequency of cold extremes.Warm extremes have mainly occurred in the southern Tianshan Mountains surrounding the Tarim Basin and western part of the Taklamakan Desert,and cold extremes have primarily occurred in the southwestern Altai Mountains and northern foot of the Tianshan Mountains.Extreme temperature events,including warm extremes,cold extremes,and other temperature indices,have significant interannual variability,with the main oscillation periods at smaller(2–4-year band),intermediate(4–7-year band),and greater time scales in recent decades.Furthermore,cold-extreme indices,including frost days,cool days,and cool nights all show a clear changepoint during 1990–1997 at the 95% confidence level,and both ice days and cold spell duration indicator have a potential changepoint during 1981–1986.However,the changing points for warmextreme indices are detected during 1992–1998.The temperature variables are significantly correlated with the EI Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation(AO),but less well correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO).The phase difference in the WTC spectra is not uniform between temperature extremes and climatic oscillations.Our findings will have important implications for local governments in taking effective measures to mitigate the potential effects of regional climate warming due to human activities in Xinjiang.

The 2022 Extreme Heatwave in Shanghai,Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley:Combined Influences of Multiscale Variabilities

In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since 1961.In this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of Shanghai.We found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in Shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global warming.During mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme HW.The Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time scale.Also,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking pattern.Anomalous warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong WPSH.At the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the HW.Therefore,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.

Extreme massive hydraulic fracturing in deep coalbed methane horizontal wells:A case study of the Linxing Block,eastern Ordos Basin,NW China

Deep coal seams show low permeability,low elastic modulus,high Poisson’s ratio,strong plasticity,high fracture initiation pressure,difficulty in fracture extension,and difficulty in proppants addition.We proposed the concept of large-scale stimulation by fracture network,balanced propagation and effective support of fracture network in fracturing design and developed the extreme massive hydraulic fracturing technique for deep coalbed methane(CBM)horizontal wells.This technique involves massive injection with high pumping rate+high-intensity proppant injection+perforation with equal apertures and limited flow+temporary plugging and diverting fractures+slick water with integrated variable viscosity+graded proppants with multiple sizes.The technique was applied in the pioneering test of a multi-stage fracturing horizontal well in deep CBM of Linxing Block,eastern margin of the Ordos Basin.The injection flow rate is 18 m^(3)/min,proppant intensity is 2.1 m^(3)/m,and fracturing fluid intensity is 16.5 m^(3)/m.After fracturing,a complex fracture network was formed,with an average fracture length of 205 m.The stimulated reservoir volume was 1987×10^(4)m^(3),and the peak gas production rate reached 6.0×10^(4)m^(3)/d,which achieved efficient development of deep CBM.

Bio-inspired Polyimine Copolymers： Facial Integration with High Content Variability and Extremal Transitions of Mechanical Properties

Natural composites have inspired the fabrication of various biomimetic composites that have achieved enhancement on certain mechanical performance. Herein, a facial approach enabled by recent advances in polyimine chemistry has been developed to fabricate bio-inspired hard-soft-integrated copolymers from two polyimines （i.e. PI-H and PI-S） with hardness differential. Subsequent evaluations of multiple mechanical properties on the bio-inspired copolymers with PI-S contents of full-range variability （0 wt%-100 wt%） have revealed extremal transitions for friction coefficients, impact strengths and tensile moduli. More interestingly, the minimum points of friction coefficients show a deformation-resisting response toward the change of applied loads, but not for the altered sliding speeds, suggesting a more significant role of load in determining the optimal anti-friction composition of the hard-soft integrated copolymers. These trends have been further corroborated by scanning electron microscopy of the worn specimens. Together these results have demonstrated that full-range extremal tran- sitions exist on multiple mechanical properties for hard-soft-integrated copolymers, providing valuable insights to the design and fabrication of composite polymers for many applications. The polyimine-based approach outlined here also affords a convenient method to tune the ratio of two components in the copolymers within the full range of 0 wt%-100 wt%, enabling quick integration with high content variability.

Contribution of Atmospheric Rivers to Precipitation and Precipitation Extremes in East Asia:Diagnosis with Moisture Flux Convergence

Atmospheric rivers(ARs),the long and narrow conveyors of intense moisture transport,have a non-negligible impact on hydrometeorological events over the extratropical regions.This study analyzes the climatology and interannual variability of ARs and their quantitative association with precipitation and precipitation extremes over East Asia(EA)during 1979-2019,based on calculations of not only moisture transport but also moisture flux convergence.It is found that the ARs over EA occur frequently in spring and summer,accounting for 25%-40%of seasonal precipitation and 60%-75%of extreme precipitation over EA.Increases in AR frequency are observed over EA during post-El Ni?o summers,meanwhile the AR-related anomalous moisture convergence is found leading to the increase of extreme precipitation.Specifically,increased ARs account for 70%-90%of total precipitation anomalies and up to 90%of extreme precipitation anomalies over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River,and the anomalies of moisture flux convergence are caused mainly by changes in horizontal wind convergence rather than moisture advection during the post-El Ni?o summers.

1960—2020年南水北调区域极端气象要素变化分析

南水北调工程会引起所涉区域极端气候发生变化,同时极端气候事件对调水工程运行也存在影响。研究以1960—2020年气象观测数据为基础构建极端气象要素指标体系,采用变化范围法(RVA)与集对分析法(SPA)对南水北调影响区极端气象要素的改变程度进行量化计算,揭示了经济发展、气候变化与南水北调工程影响下区域极端气象要素的演变规律。结果表明:在经济发展与气候变化影响下,1960—2020年南水北调影响区极端气象要素指标综合改变度总体为上升趋势,并出现了明显的区域差异性,中线地区极端气候改变度显著大于东线,而两线水源区变化程度低于输水区和受水区;调水前后对比分析表明,工程调水对中线的影响大于东线,且受水区极端气象要素变化程度更为明显;对极端气象要素分析发现,极端蒸发受气候变化与经济发展影响显著,极端气温受调水工程影响变化较大,极端降水受外界扰动变化不明显。

深部煤层气水平井大规模极限体积压裂技术--以鄂尔多斯盆地东缘临兴区块为例

针对深煤层渗透性差、弹性模量较低、泊松比较高、塑性强、破裂压力高、裂缝扩展难度大、加砂困难等特点,提出缝网改造规模化、缝网扩展均衡化、缝网支撑有效化的压裂设计理念,形成以高排量大规模注入、高强度加砂、等孔径限流射孔、暂堵转向、一体化可变黏滑溜水、多粒径组合支撑剂为核心的深煤层水平井大规模极限体积压裂技术。将该技术应用于鄂尔多斯盆地东缘临兴区块首口深煤层多级压裂水平井先导性试验,施工排量18 m^(3)/min、加砂强度2.1 m^(3)/m、用液强度16.5 m^(3)/m,压裂后形成了复杂裂缝网络,平均缝长为205 m,储层改造体积为1987×10^(4)m^(3),最高产气量达6×10^(4)m^(3)/d,实现了深部煤层气的高效开发。