Spatial-temporal Dynamics and Driving Forces of Land Development Intensity in the Western China from 2000 to 2015

The change in land development intensity is an important perspective to reflect the variation in regional social and economic development and spatial differentiation.In this paper,spatial statistical analysis,Ordinary Least Squares(OLS),and Geographically weighted regression(GWR)methods are used to systematically analyse the spatial-temporal characteristics and driving forces of land development intensity for 131 spatial units in the western China from 2000 to 2015.The findings of the study are as follows:1)The land development intensity in the western China has been increasing rapidly.From 2000 to 2015,land development intensity increased by 3.4 times on average.2)The hotspot areas have shifted from central Inner Mongolia,northern Shaanxi and the Beibu Gulf of Guangxi to the Guanzhong Plain and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.The areas of cold spots were mainly concentrated in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,Yunnan,and Xinjiang.3)Investment intensity and the natural environment have always been the main drivers of land development intensity in the western China.Investment played a powerful role in promoting land development intensity,while the natural and ecological environment distinctly constrained such development.The effect of the economic factors on land development intensity in the western China has changed,which is reflected in the driving factor of construction land development shifting from economic growth in 2000 to economic structure,especially industrial structure,in 2015.

Land use intensity dynamics in the Andhikhola watershed, middle hill of Nepal

Land use intensity is a valuable concept to understand integrated land use system, which is unlike the traditional approach of analysis that often examines one or a few aspects of land use disregarding multidimensionality of the intensification process in the complex land system. Land use intensity is based on an integrative conceptual framework focusing on both inputs to and outputs from the land. Geographers’ non-stationary data-analysis technique is very suitable for most of the spatial data analysis. Our study was carried out in the northeast part of the Andhikhola watershed lying in the Middle Hills of Nepal, where over the last two decades, heavy loss of labor due to outmigration of rural farmers and increasing urbanization in the relatively easy accessible lowland areas has caused agricultural land abandonment. Our intention in this study was to ascertain factors of spatial pattern of intensity dynamism between human and nature relationships in the integrated traditional agricultural system. High resolution aerial photo and multispectral satellite image were used to derive data on land use and land cover. In addition, field verification, information collected from the field and census report were other data sources. Explanatory variables were derived from those digital and analogue data. Ordinary Least Square(OLS) technique was used for filtering of the variables. Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) model was used to identify major determining factors of land use intensity dynamics. Moran’s I technique was used for model validation. GWR model was executed to identify the strength of explanatory variables explaining change of land use intensity. Accordingly, 10 variables were identified having the greatest strength to explain land use intensity change in the study area, of which physical variables such as slope gradient, temperature and solar radiation revealed the highest strength followed by variables of accessibility and natural resource. Depopulation in recent decades has been a major driver of land use intensity change but spatial variability of land use intensity was highly controlled by physical suitability, accessibility and availability of natural resources.

Optimization of Development Intensity Index of Regulatory Land under the Constraint of Bearing Capacity of Road Network:A Case Study of Xingtang County

In the process of urban development in China,the vast majority of urban construction is faced with the prominent contradiction between scarce land resources and vigorous construction demand.Moreover,high-density and high-intensity development is ubiquitous.However,the overall development amount of a city is restricted by the bearing capacity of road network to some extent,and there is an upper limit.Based on this,Xingtang County of Shijiazhuang City is taken as the research object,and bearing capacity of road network is selected as research emphasis.With the aid of traffi c planning software TransCAD,simulation and quantitative analysis are conducted,and traffi c demand is forecasted,to analyze impact relationship between land-use planning and traffic planning in regulatory planning.It facilitates later modifi cation and optimization of volume rate in the land development intensity index,thus providing rational basis for programme adjustment,preparation and management of regulatory planning in Xingtang County.

Evaluating rural sustainable land use from a system perspective based on the ecosystem service value

Rural sustainable land use(RSLU) is important to China’s implementation of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals and the goals of rural revitalization strategy in China. Research on RSLU is key to understanding the impact of human activities on rural sustainability. This paper explored the evaluation method of RSLU from a system perspective based on the ecosystem service value(ESV). Three systems were proposed for consideration when conducting this evaluation method. One was the sustainability of the land system, the other was the sustainability of the ecoeconomic system, and the rest was the sustainability of the land-eco-economy system. Indicators including(1) land use intensity and land system stability,(2) gross domestic production(GDP), ESV, and the eco-economic harmony degree(EEHD), and(3) coupling degree and coupling coordination degree were used to analyze the sustainability of the land, eco-economic, and landeco-economic systems, respectively. An empirical research on Yanhe ecovillage was conducted and the study period extended from 2008 to 2020. The results showed that forest land had always accounted for more than 81.20% of the total area in Yanhe eco-village from 2008 to 2020, which greatly influenced land system stability and restricted economic development. This feature contrasted with RSLU. The total ESV of Yanhe eco-village declined by 1.60×106CNY during 2008–2020 because of land use changes. The EEHD was –0.01, which presented that there was a very slight unharmonious between ecology and economy. The coupling degree and coupling coordination degree showed that the development between the land and ecoeconomic systems exhibited a coupling coordination relationship. The results indicated that ecology and economy in Yanhe eco-village will change significantly in response to land use changes in rural areas, which further revealed the dynamic linkage between human beings and nature. Moreover, opposite variation tendencies in land system stability and ESV revealed that the contradiction between the high stability of the land system and well development of the eco-economic system. The results of this study implied that it is necessary and useful to integrate ESV into land management to achieve RSLU.

Interaction of Land Demand and Supply Effects in Intensive Land Use: a Simulation Study for Chengdu,China

Intensive land use( ILU) policies affect the demand and supply of land. These policies promote efficient land use, and demands for land must therefore be evaluated in terms of the level of land-use intensity. If the demand is considered excessive, ILU policies act like a "valve"to restrict the land supply. Drawing on data from Chengdu,China,where developable land is scarce,we construct a model using system dynamics( SD) to simulate two scenarios: ILU development and non-ILU development. The results show that when ILU leads to positive land-use efficiency,land supply will exceed demand,resulting in an appropriate level of real demand for the current population level and GDP. Thus,artificial demand( inflated by investors) is reduced. By contrast,when non-ILU leads to negative land-use efficiency,land demand will exceed supply. In this scenario,artificial demand is higher than real demand.

Evaluation and Obstacle Diagnosis of Low-carbon Intensive Land Use in Kaifeng City

Low carbon intensive use of urban land is an important trend to achieve regional high quality development.In this study,with Kaifeng municipal district as an example,the catastrophe progression model was used to estimate and analyze the low-carbon intensive use level of urban land in Kaifeng City from 2011 to 2020,and the obstacle factors in the process of low-carbon intensive land use in Kaifeng City were revealed by using the obstacle degree model.The results showed that during the study period,the low-carbon intensive use of land in Kaifeng City showed a slow,fluctuating and declining trend,and the overall situation was in a generally intensive state.The land input level and land output level were on the rise,while the low-carbon level of land and the degree of land use were on the decline.Currently,the main obstacle factors restricting the low-carbon intensive use of land in Kaifeng City were the carbon structure coefficient of land use,energy consumption per square kilometer,carbon emissions per square kilometer,carbon emissions per capita,and non-agricultural land use efficiency.In the future,it is necessary to further improve the land use structure and promote the high-quality development of Kaifeng City.

Agricultural land use intensity study in Taibus Banner, and its determinants： a case Inner Mongolia, China

Based on rural household survey data from Taibus Banner, in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, this study separately categorizes agricul- tural land use intensity into labor intensity, capital intensity, the intensity of labor-saving inputs, and the intensity of yield-increasing inputs, and then analyzes their determinants at the household level. The findings reveal that within the study area： （1） labor intensity is higher and capital intensity is lower than in the major grain-producing and economically developed areas of eastern and central China; （2） the most widely planted crops are those with the lowest labor intensity （oats） and capital intensity （benne）; （3） there are marked differences in agricultural land use intensity among households; a major factor affecting land use decision-making is the reduced need for labor intensity for those households with high opportunity costs, such as those with income earned from non-farming activities which alleviates financial constraints and allows for increased capital intensity. As a result, these households invest more in labor-saving inputs; （4） households with a larger number of workers will allocate adequate time to manage their land and thus they will not necessarily invest more in labor-saving inputs. Those households with more land to manage tend to adopt an extensive cultivation strategy. Total income has a positive impact on capital intensity and a negative impact on labor intensity. House- holds that derive a higher proportion of their total income through farming are more reliant upon agriculture, which necessitates significant labor and yield-increasing inputs. Finally, the authors contend that policy makers should clearly recognize the impacts of non-farming employment on agricultural land use intensity. In order to ensure long- term food security and sustainable agricultural develop-ment in China, income streams from both farming and non- farming employment should be balanced.

Comprehensive assessment on the ecological stress of rapid land urbanization per proportion, intensity, and location

Aiming at assessing the ecological stress of land urbanization comprehensively,three perspectives are considered and combined,i.e.the amount effect with the proportion of construction lands as the indicator,the intensity effect per the density of environmental pollutant emissions,and the location effect based on their spatial distribution in the heterogeneous landscape.The quantitative results of Southern Jiangsu case in Eastern China show the single-perspective ecological stress are spatially different;the proportion effect is higher in city propers which are more densely populated and industrialized.However,the intensity effect is more significant for units along the Yangtze river where heavy industries are gathered,while the location effect is higher in“ecologically suitable”regions.As the integration of proportion,intensity,and location effects,the comprehensive stress differs across Southern Jiangsu and are also different with the single-perspective results.Dominant stressors of each unit are spatially distinct,which benefits policymakers in targeting their objectives as per primary influencing factors.It is concluded that the comprehensive assessment could efficiently reveal the spatial differentiation of the ecological effects of land urbanization and also the differentiated role of different factors for each unit.

Quantitative measuring and influencing mechanism of urban and rural land intensive use in ChinaQuantitative measuring and influencing mechanism of urban and rural land intensive use in China

Land use issue is an important constraining force to limit economic sustainable development of China. Urban and rural rapid expansion depletes valued land resources under the background of rapid urbanization. An extensive use pattern might cause a serious waste of land resources. The study on influencing mechanism of land intensive use （LIU） in China at the county level is a key tool for effective LIU practice and policy-making. This paper uses OLS model, Spatial Panel Lagged model and Spatial Panel Error model to quantitatively analyze the influencing mechanisms of five class factors and 17 variables supported by GIS （Geographic Information System） and MATLAB. And a comprehensive data set was devel- oped including physical geography and socio-economic information of 2286 counties. Meanwhile, the spatiotemporal pattern of LIU has discussed by means of GIS. The results show that Spatial Panel Data models are slightly superior to OLS model in terms of signifi- cance and confidence level. Regression results of these models indicate that industrialization, urbanization, economic development level, location, transportation and policy have significant impact on LIU of counties. The variables of physical geography are less significant than socio-economic variables. An ignored variable of historical factor, however, became the best significant factor. In the future, the LIU at the county level should take advantage of the new situation by enhancing favorable factors and reducing disadvantageous ones, which can be acquired by improving the entire level and quality of industrialization and urbanization. We argued that an efficient and complete land market and operating system should be built to reflect market-oriented activities at the first place, then, differential LIU regulation policies and measurements should be optimized according to regional differences. In the meantime, we should pay close attention to the carrying capacity of local resources and environments when conducting LIU practices.

中国土地利用强度及其承载力研究（英文）

Land use intensity quantifies the impacts of human activities on natural ecosystems, which have become the major driver of global environmental change, and thus it serves as an essential measurement for assessing land use sustainability. To date, land-change studies have mainly focused on changes in land cover and their effects on ecological processes, whereas land use intensity has not yet received the attention it deserves and for which spa- tially-explicit representation studies have only just begun. In this paper, according to the de- gree and reversibility of surface disturbance by human activities, there are four main classes of land use intensity： artificial land, semi-artificial land, semi-natural land, and natural land. These were further divided into 22 subclasses based on key indicators, such as human pop- ulation density and the cropping intensity. Land use intensity map of China at a 1-km spatial resolution was obtained based on satellite images and statistical data. The area proportions of artificial land, semi-artificial land, semi-natural land, and natural land were 0.71%, 19.36%, 58.93%, and 21%, respectively. Human and economic carrying capacity increased with the increase of land use intensity. Artificial land supports 24.58% and 35.62% of the total population and GDP, using only 0.71% of the total land, while semi-artificial land supported 58.24% and 49.61% of human population and GDP with 19.36% of China＇s total land area.

栽培陆地使用紧张的时间空间的差别分析基于在中国的波伊昂·莱克·埃科科诺米克地区的 emergy

Taking the emergy requirements of the five input indexes as the foundation, this paper analyzes the total temporal and spatial changes in cultivated land use intensity in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone from 2000 to 2010. The results are obtained as follows： （1） Over a period of 10 years, the cultivated land use intensity has increased exponentially in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone; agricultural machinery intensity has been the largest proportion of the total inputs, comprising more than 99.50% and increasing year by year, which indicates that agricultural mechanization is a basic trend in agricultural development in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone. （2） The total number of counties belonging to the moderate- and low- intensity cultivated land use categories is the largest, while the number of counties belonging to the high-intensity cultivated land use and extensive cultivated land use categories is the smallest. （3） This zone can be divided into five areas： an eastern area of high-intensity cultivated land use, a central and eastern area of low-intensity cultivated land use, a central area of low-intensity cultivated land use, a southern area of moderate-intensity cultivated land use, and a northern area of moderate-intensity cultivated land use. （4） The counties which had a coordinated development between cultivated land use intensity and their socio-economic development level increase year by year, and the socio-economic development level had increasingly obvious effects on the cultivated land use intensity. Finally, this paper presents suggestions for the development of cultivated land use intensity in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, especially for different levels of intensity among counties.

Development of evaluation model for intensive land use in urban centers

Starting with exptoration from the perspective of urban spaces, this research was conducted by anatyzing the functionat areas--urban centers with the most hightighted contradictions in terms of intensive land use in order to devetop an evatuation model for intensive land use in urban centers. Based on quantitative research methods, and taking into account three aspects of intensive use, i.e., buitdings, lands and traffic as wetl as muttiple evaluation factors, this paper conducted the research horizontatty by means of quantitative and comparative studies on each individual factor, devetoped the evatuation model for intensive rand use in urban centers, and anatyzed the driving forces of intensive land use from the aspects of buitdings, land use, roads, etc.

中国农地利用变化及其驱动因素--文献述评

Understanding the manifestations and underlying drivers of agricultural land use change in China is of great importance for both domestic and global food security. However, little is known about the holistic pattern of agricultural land use change across China, especially from the perspective of intensity since the evidence has been gathered mainly through case studies at local levels. This study conducts a systemic review of agricultural land use change and its underlying drivers in China by aggregating 169 relevant case studies from 123 publications. The cases related to intensification and disintensification, which are the two types of agricultural land use change, are generally equal, accounting for 50% of the total number of cases. Intensification and disintensification can be further divided into the same three categories: expansion/contraction of agricultural land, changes in agricultural land use activities and changes in land management intensity. Demographic, economic, technological, and institutional drivers, together with location factors, are frequently noted as significant underlying drivers, while sociocultural drivers and farm(er) characteristics are less frequently recognized. Finally, three major land use change trajectories are summarized mainly concerning rising labor costs and the concomitant increase in off-farm employment, the ecological improvement policy, and advances in agricultural technology.

中国国家级开发区时空演化及其对城镇用地扩张的影响

Development zones are important growth poles for promoting regional economic development. However, the spatiotemporal relationship between development zone construction and urban land growth is still unclear. This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal changes of national-level development zones(NDZs), approximately 219 national economic development zones, and 156 high-tech development zones during 1990–2018 in China. The impact of development zone establishment on the growth of surrounding urban land was quantitatively explored using circle buffering analysis and time series comparative analysis. The results show that China's NDZs spread from the southeast coast to the inland area from 1990 to 2018, and the establishment of the development zones has an obvious promoting effect on the surrounding urban land growth. The scope and intensity of influences of the development zone established in different periods present distinct nonstationarity in space and time. Overall, the impact on urban land(IU) of China's NDZs established in different years was mostly highest at the 100 m buffer zone radius, while the slope of the IU was mostly negative, which meant that the 100 m buffer zone radius of the development zone center was the most efficient scale to promote urban land growth. In the meantime, the curve of IU of NDZs established before 1990, during 1996–2000 and 2001–2005 has a clear inflection point, which indicates that the most efficient scales of NDZs established before 1990, during 1996–2000, and 2001–2005 are 1300 m, 900–1000 m, and 800 m, respectively. NDZs established in other periods do not have the most obvious efficient scale. The development zone played the greatest role in promoting urban land growth from 2000 to 2010. Three association modes, including post-growth, pre-growth and steady-growth, were identified based on the differences in geographical location, establishment time, and type of development zones. We quantitatively identify the impact of the growth pole of NDZs on urban land growth from the perspective of spatiotemporal evolution. The findings would provide decision-making support for optimizing the spatial relationship between development zone construction and urban land growth.

城市土地开发强度——来自中国长三角地区经济转型背后的新证据

Over the past 20 years,China has experienced multiple economic transitions characterized by marketization,globalization,decentralization,and urbanization;as a result,urban land development intensity(ULDI)has become a significant issue for sustainable development.As China’s largest globalized urban area,the rapid socio-economic development of the Yangtze River Delta has created a huge demand for urban land.We apply a theoretical framework for a four-dimensional analysis tool to understand the dynamic evolution of the ULDI in the context of economic transition.It reveals that marketization,globalization,decentralization,and urbanization affect the ULDI in the economic transition of Yangtze River Delta.Marketization,especially the continuous improvement of land marketization,optimizes the spatial allocation of land resources and encourages urban land users to improve ULDI.Globalization promotes the rapid growth of economy and population through an increase in foreign direct investment.In the process of decentralization,local governments rely on developing a mode of land finance,resulting in a disordered urban space and low ULDI.Population growth and agglomeration during urbanization stimulates residents’consumption capacity and promotes economic growth,thus creating a greater demand for urban land.However,a low level of development and utilization restricts the improvement of development intensity.Economic development can improve the level of land-intensive use by promoting the adjustment,optimization,and upgrade of urban industrial structures.

基于指数计算的开发强度空间评价模型——以越南海岸线为例（英文）

Coastal zones play a major role in the conservation of marine ecosystems and the sustainable use of resources not only because of their special geographical environment but also because of their high temporal and spatial variability. With the development of urbaniza- tion, the exploitation and utilization of coasts have become important issues in the debate. To evaluate variations in the intensity of the land resource exploitation of coastal zones, an in- dex-based model has been proposed in this paper, and coastal Vietnam has been established as the study area. The model is based on four normalized indexes to realize rapid evaluation of the spatial distribution of the exploitative intensity after zoning. The model was established to characterize the different exploitative intensities in different segments of the coast and to graphically present a sequence of decision choices for decision-makers. The results are as follows. （1） The simplicity and rapidity of the index operations can address the fast-changing characteristics of coastal exploitation and meet the desired precision. （2） The choices of the landward buffers fit well with the banded characteristics of the coastal zone. The buffers are horizontally divided into equidistant subregions, which can quantify the spatial differentiation of the exploitative intensity along the coast and perpendicular to the coast. （3） The average exploitative intensity is low, and the proportion of area that is to be exploited accounts for approximately 50%.Considering its spatial variation from north to south, the land exploitative intensity in the north is higher than that in the south. Compared to the intensity of land re- source exploitation in the 20 km and 10 km buffers, the land exploitative intensity in the 5 km buffer is higher. The state of the intensity of land resource exploitation and how it can be used by stakeholders to manage coastal resources are then discussed.

Holistic identification and assessment of environmental risks of arable land use in two grain producing areas of China

Taking two typical grain producing areas of southern(Dongting Lake Region)and northern China(Shandong Province)as examples,this study used fault tree analysis and parametric estimation to provide a comparative analysis for environmental risks of intensive arable land use.The results show that(1)in the risks of eutrophication,toxicity,soil structure,greenhouse effect and air pollution,the greenhouse effect was the most prominent with the highest discharge;(2)the Dongting Lake Region discharged less pollutants annually than did Shandong Province,while surpassing Shandong in cumulative pollutant discharge in 2007-2018;(3)the spatial distribution of environmental risk in the Dongting Lake Region was mostly concentrated in the northern area,whereas that in Shandong Province displayed a scattered pattern;(4)in the Dongting Lake Region,Yueyang,Changde,and Yiyang were high environmental risk cities in 2007-2018,whereas in Shandong Province,Zaozhuang,Heze,Liaocheng,and Dezhou exhibited higher comprehensive environmental risk indexes in 2007-2008,while Rizhao replaced them in 2018.The results indicated that ago-production material use must be controlled,reasonable zoning for areas posing environmental risks must be employed and cities with high environmental risk must be dynamically monitored to prevent the intensification of environmental risks of arable land use.