A WD-GA-LSSVM model for rainfall-triggered landslide displacement prediction

This paper proposes a WD-GA-LSSVM model for predicting the displacement of a deepseated landslide triggered by seasonal rainfall,in which wavelet denoising(WD)is used in displacement time series of landslide to eliminate the GPS observation noise in the original data,and genetic algorithm(GA)is applied to obtain optimal parameters of least squares support vector machines(LSSVM)model.The model is first trained and then evaluated by using data from a gentle dipping(~2°-5°)landslide triggered by seasonal rainfall in the southwest of China.Performance comparisons of WD-GA-LSSVM model with Back Propagation Neural Network(BPNN)model and LSSVM are presented,individually.The results indicate that the adoption of WD-GA-LSSVM model significantly improves the robustness and accuracy of the displacement prediction and it provides a powerful technique for predicting the displacement of a rainfall-triggered landslide.

A graph deep learning method for landslide displacement prediction based on global navigation satellite system positioning

The accurate prediction of displacement is crucial for landslide deformation monitoring and early warning.This study focuses on a landslide in Wenzhou Belt Highway and proposes a novel multivariate landslide displacement prediction method that relies on graph deep learning and Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)positioning.First model the graph structure of the monitoring system based on the engineering positions of the GNSS monitoring points and build the adjacent matrix of graph nodes.Then construct the historical and predicted time series feature matrixes using the processed temporal data including GNSS displacement,rainfall,groundwater table and soil moisture content and the graph structure.Last introduce the state-of-the-art graph deep learning GTS(Graph for Time Series)model to improve the accuracy and reliability of landslide displacement prediction which utilizes the temporal-spatial dependency of the monitoring system.This approach outperforms previous studies that only learned temporal features from a single monitoring point and maximally weighs the prediction performance and the priori graph of the monitoring system.The proposed method performs better than SVM,XGBoost,LSTM and DCRNN models in terms of RMSE(1.35 mm),MAE(1.14 mm)and MAPE(0.25)evaluation metrics,which is provided to be effective in future landslide failure early warning.

Data-augmented landslide displacement prediction using generative adversarial network

Landslides are destructive natural disasters that cause catastrophic damage and loss of life worldwide.Accurately predicting landslide displacement enables effective early warning and risk management.However,the limited availability of on-site measurement data has been a substantial obstacle in developing data-driven models,such as state-of-the-art machine learning(ML)models.To address these challenges,this study proposes a data augmentation framework that uses generative adversarial networks(GANs),a recent advance in generative artificial intelligence(AI),to improve the accuracy of landslide displacement prediction.The framework provides effective data augmentation to enhance limited datasets.A recurrent GAN model,RGAN-LS,is proposed,specifically designed to generate realistic synthetic multivariate time series that mimics the characteristics of real landslide on-site measurement data.A customized moment-matching loss is incorporated in addition to the adversarial loss in GAN during the training of RGAN-LS to capture the temporal dynamics and correlations in real time series data.Then,the synthetic data generated by RGAN-LS is used to enhance the training of long short-term memory(LSTM)networks and particle swarm optimization-support vector machine(PSO-SVM)models for landslide displacement prediction tasks.Results on two landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)region show a significant improvement in LSTM model prediction performance when trained on augmented data.For instance,in the case of the Baishuihe landslide,the average root mean square error(RMSE)increases by 16.11%,and the mean absolute error(MAE)by 17.59%.More importantly,the model’s responsiveness during mutational stages is enhanced for early warning purposes.However,the results have shown that the static PSO-SVM model only sees marginal gains compared to recurrent models such as LSTM.Further analysis indicates that an optimal synthetic-to-real data ratio(50%on the illustration cases)maximizes the improvements.This also demonstrates the robustness and effectiveness of supplementing training data for dynamic models to obtain better results.By using the powerful generative AI approach,RGAN-LS can generate high-fidelity synthetic landslide data.This is critical for improving the performance of advanced ML models in predicting landslide displacement,particularly when there are limited training data.Additionally,this approach has the potential to expand the use of generative AI in geohazard risk management and other research areas.

Prediction of landslide displacement with dynamic features using intelligent approaches

Landslide displacement prediction can enhance the efficacy of landslide monitoring system,and the prediction of the periodic displacement is particularly challenging.In the previous studies,static regression models(e.g.,support vector machine(SVM))were mostly used for predicting the periodic displacement.These models may have bad performances,when the dynamic features of landslide triggers are incorporated.This paper proposes a method for predicting the landslide displacement in a dynamic manner,based on the gated recurrent unit(GRU)neural network and complete ensemble empirical decomposition with adaptive noise(CEEMDAN).The CEEMDAN is used to decompose the training data,and the GRU is subsequently used for predicting the periodic displacement.Implementation procedures of the proposed method were illustrated by a case study in the Caojiatuo landslide area,and SVM was also adopted for the periodic displacement prediction.This case study shows that the predictors obtained by SVM are inaccurate,as the landslide displacement is in a pronouncedly step-wise manner.By contrast,the accuracy can be significantly improved using the dynamic predictive method.This paper reveals the significance of capturing the dynamic features of the inputs in the training process,when the machine learning models are adopted to predict the landslide displacement.