DEEP THOUGHTS OF LAND UTILIZATION ABOUT THE RARELY SEVERE FLOODING DISASTERALONG THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF THE CHANGJIANG RIVER IN 1998

In the summer of 1998, a rarely severe flooding disaster occurred in the whole basin of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River, which caused enormous losses. By 22nd of August, 29 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalitieswere involved, 21. 2 million ha of land were inundated, 223 million people were affected, 3004 people were killed and4. 97 million buildings were collapsed. The estimated direct loss of the country accounted to 166. 6 billion yuan (RMB).The main reason of the disaster is the unusual climate but the unreasonable land utilization the aggravated the disaster.This paper consists of two parts. One part analysed the unreasonable land utilization, including the neglect of forest landprotection, which caused the forest land area to decrease by 440 thousand ha in the whole country every year, the enclosing of lakes for cultivation, which decreased the area of lakes located along the banks of the Changjiang River from 17 200km2 at the beginning of the founding of the People’s Republic of China to 6531 km2 in 1983, the changing of functions oflakes, which reduced the volume of storage exceedingly, for example, only 5 spots of lakes were used for storing water inWuhan City, and the slow progress of the construction of flood diversion and storage area, which would cause huge lossesonce flood was diverted. The other part explored the strategy of land utilization on the supplying of land for flood controlprojects, such as embankment, drainage installation, flood diversion and storage area, and on tapping the potentialsthrough narrowing and amalgamgting the range of rural residential quarters and small towns, reclaiming reserved resources, transforming middle and low productive fields, attaching importance to land arrangement and recultivation, and adjusting contracted fields partially, to ensure the sustainable and stable growth of the region.

High resolution records of flood deposition in the mud area off the Changjiang River mouth during the past century

This paper presents a paleoflood study to determine the flood frequency of the Changjiang River, based on core cj0702, taken from the Changjiang River subaqueous delta. We identified flood deposits by means of high-resolution grain-size variation, sensitive population, geochemical indexes and magnetic susceptibility. The core covers a time span of 120 years by 21~pb dating and was sampled at 1-2 cm intervals. Grain size, geochemical elements, and physical parameters were analyzed. The results indicate that the sediment of the core is mainly composed of silt and clay, as well as groups of interbedded silt, clay silt, and clay. Vertically, the grain size pattern was controlled by seasonal variations in water discharge and by the sediment input in winter from the abandoned Huanghe River delta. River flooding caused extreme values in all our measured parameters. We identified more than 20 flood events that occurred since 1887 using the physical parameter analysis method. The environmentally sensitive component of sediment grain size （14.32-96.39 gm） contribution〉30%, Zr/Rb ratio〉l.5, and magnetic susceptibility〉16 were selected as the criteria for flood identification generally. We also found that floods that had taken place in the upstream, midstream, or downstream parts of the river were clearly identified by these indexes while the large-scale floods that covered the whole drainage area did not leave clear indications in the sediment record. This study for identification of flood events is of great significance for understanding hyperpycnal current sedimentation as well as for forecasting of floods.

The 1999 Flood on Changjiang River and Some Thoughts on It

Following the basin wide heavy flood on Changjiang River in 1998, a significant flood occurred in 1999. Comparative analysis of both floods in terms of flows and flooding situations shows that both floods had one common feature, that is, the flood stages were fairly high. But they differed greatly at the same time, that is, the 1998 flood was a basin wide heavy one while the 1999 flood was a significant local one. At Yichang station there occurred eight flood peaks in 1998, while in 1999 only three peaks took place. The maximum peak discharge at this station in 1999 was 57 600 cubic meters per second, which was smaller than that in 1998. The maximum flood-volume in 30 d of the 1998 flood at this station equaled that in 1954, when an extraordinary heavy flood happened on the River, while the maximum flood-volume in 30 d in 1999 was 25.8 billion cubic meters per second smaller than the 1998 one. It is seen that inflow floods from the upstream Changjiang River (above Yichang) in 1999 were not so big. Comparison of flood volumes in longer period shows that the 1999 flood was relatively concentrated while the 1998 one had lasted longer duration. Analysis shows that flooding situations in both years differed significantly in terms of the flood volumes diverted from river channels due to dyke breaches and collapses, the cases of polder embankment collapses, the areas of inundated cultivated land and the numbers of dangerous events for hydraulic structures. These differences had been resulted from the different properties of both floods and the dyke strengthening efforts made after the 1998 flood. It is seen that flood control engineering constructions initiated in the days following the 1998 flood have played an important role in fighting the 1999 flood.

The Relation between Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation and Summer Severe Flood and Drought in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin

The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) is studied during the severe flood and drought years of the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the precipitation data in China. The results show that the upper-level (200 hPa) ISO pattern for severe flood (drought) is characterized by an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the southern Tibetan Plateau and a cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation over the northern Tibetan Plateau. The lower-level (850 hPa) ISO pattern is characterized by an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the area south of the Changjiang River, the South China Sea, and the Western Pacific, and a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation from the area north of the Changjiang River to Japan. These low-level ISO circulation patterns are the first modes of the ISO wind field according to the vector EOF expansion with stronger amplitude of the EOF1 time coefficient in severe flood years than in severe drought years. The analyses also reveal that at 500 hPa and 200 hPa, the atmospheric ISO activity over the Changjiang-Huaihe River basin, North China, and the middle-high latitudes north of China is stronger for severe flood than for severe drought. The ISO meridional wind over the middle-high latitude regions can propagate southwards and meet with the northward propagating ISO meridional wind from lower latitude regions over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin during severe flood years, but not during severe drought years.

Carbon isotopes and lignin phenols for tracing the floods during the past 70 years in the middle reach of the Changjiang River

The Lake Tian E Zhou(TEZ,an oxbow lake)was formed during the rerouting of the Changjiang River in 1972,with strong influences from the main river channel and flood events.Herein,a sediment core was collected from the Lake TEZ for the measurements of carbon isotopes and biomarkers,including stable carbon isotopes(δ13C),radiocarbon composition(?14C),and lignin phenols,as well as lead-210 to reconstruct recent heavy flood events over the past 70 years.At the 24–26 cm interval,the sediment contained the highest OC%,TN%,and lignin phenols content,as well as significantly depleted 13C but enriched 14C,corresponding to the extreme flood event in 1998.In addition,statistics from t-test showed that lignin phenols normalized to OC(Λ8),the concentration of 3,5-dihydroxy benzoic acid(3,5-BD),and the ratio of p-hydroxy benzophenone to total hydroxyl phenols(PHB/HP)were all significantly different between the layers containing flood deposits and the layers deposited under normal non-flood conditions(p<0.05).These results indicate that the later three parameters are highly related to flood events and can be used as compelling proxies,along with sediment chronology,for hydrological changes and storm/flood events in the river basin and coastal marine environments.

A STUDY ON REGULARITY OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER VALLEY DURING LAST 10 CENTURIES

According to historical records, there are 264 drought and flood years, occurred in the upper and middle reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River during last 1020 years from 961 to 1980. The evolutionary law and developing trend of drought and flood years are studied. The distribution of drought and flood years are non-uniform and the dry and flood seasons in a year are concentrated. At the angle of monsoon circulation, at present the climate in the upper and middle reaches of the Changjiang River is just in the late stage of frequent drought period and the early stage of least flood period. In addition, the cycle of drought and flood and the feature of drought and flood occurred in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River are analyzed. It shows that the short period less than 10 years is in the majority, and the drought and flood occurred most frequently in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River.

THE KUROSHIO MEANDER/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION CONNECTION AND DROUGHT/FLOOD CYCLES IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER

In response to a suggestion that the large meander of the Kuroshio is a good predictor of droughtsin the Changjiang River Valley, it is argued that more recent inceptions of the meander lend statisticalweigh to the belief that the large meander is itself a consequence of E1 Nino, and hence of the SouthernOscillation. The meander usually lags. Thus, if the meander reliably predicts droughts, the Tahiti componentof the Southern Oscillation will usually give six months’ extra warning.

INFLUENCE OF SEA－AIR INTERACTION ON THEDISCHARGE OF FLOOD SEASON IN THEUPPER REACHES OF THE CHANGJIANG RIVER

On the method of correlation analysis the poper begins with searching theSST (Sea Surface Temperature) and circulation features of some regions with close correlation to the discharge of the flood season (from June to September) in the upperreaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River, then discusses the characteristics of sea-airinteraction and the relations between the sea-air interaction and the discharge of theflood season,after that analyzes the possible mechanisms through which the main searegions affect atmospheric circulation, and of the influence of the circulation changes onthe discharge of the flood season.

Flood-ebb asymmetry in current velocity and suspended sediment transport in the Changjiang Estuary

Time series measurements were conducted on suspended sediment and current velocity from neap tide to spring tide in the South Branch of the upper Changjiang Estuary in the summer of 2011. Strong flood-ebb asymmetry in the current velocity was observed in the South Branch as a result of high river runoff and tide deformation, in which the magnitude and duration of ebb currents were significantly greater than those of flood currents. The suspended sediment concentration（SSC） and suspended median grain size also exhibited remarkable flood-ebb variation; these variables were considerably larger during the ebb than during the flood and increased from neap to spring tide. Affected by the strong asymmetry in the current velocity and SSC between the flood and ebb,suspended sediment flux during the ebb was notably larger than during the flood, and a seaward tidal net flux was observed in each tidal cycle. The balance of sediment flux illustrates that the seaward sediment transport was dominated by river flow and tidal trapping and the landward sediment transport was dominated by the Stokes drift and the shear effect. Notable resuspension occurred during the spring and moderate tides. The critical velocity for the resuspension of bed sediments was estimated based on the correlation between current velocity with SSC and suspended median grain size. The results show that the critical velocity was approximately 40 cm/s during the flood phases and approximately 80 cm/s during the ebb phases because the surficial flood bed sediments located in the lower reach are much finer than the surficial ebb bed sediments located in the upper reach. The flood-ebb variation in the critical erosion velocity has significant effect on the intratidal variation of SSC and sediment transport process, and it is a common phenomenon in many estuaries of the world due to the complicated spatial distribution of bed sediments.

FORECAST OF IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE ON THELOW COLONIZED ISLANDS AND THEIR SURROUNDING WATERS IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER MOUTH

As a worldwide authoritative, IPCC forecasted in 1990 that the world- s sea level would most probably rise by 0. 66 m by the end of the 21 st century. Combined with the local depression caused by the sink of the earth’s crust and the human activity, the relative sea level in the Chanaiiang River mouth will rise by about 1. 0 m during the same peried. Based on this figure, the article forecasted the impacts of sea-level rise on the safety coefficient of coastal structures and civil facilities, loss of wetlands, flood hazard as well as water intrusion. The results show that: 1 ) 40% as large as the present engil1eering mass should be added to the coastal structures in order to maintain the safety coefficient; 2 ) a dynamic loss of 60 km2 of wetlands, as much as 15% of the present total area, would be caused; 3) to hinder the increase inflood hazard dy11amic capacity to drain water must increase by at least 34 times as large as the present; 4) to maintain the present navigation conditions, about 100 million yuan (RMB) is needed to reconstruct over 30(X) bridges and 30 sluices;and 5 ) the disastrous salt water intrusion caused by the sea-level rise could be encountered by the increase in water discharge from the Three Gorge Reservoir in the dry season.

Variation of Floods Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate and Human Activities in Poyang Lake, China

The Poyang Lake is one of the most frequently flooded areas in China. Understanding the changing characteristics of floods as well as the affecting factors is an important prerequisite of flood disaster prevention and mitigation. The present study identified the characteristics variations of historical floods in the Poyang Lake and their tendencies based on the Mann-Kendall(M-K) test, and also investigated the related affecting factors, both from climate and human activities. The results revealed that the highest flood stages, duration as well as hazard coefficient of floods showed a long-term increasing linear trend during the last 60 years with the M-K statistic of 1.49, 1.60 and 1.50, respectively. And, a slightly increasing linear trend in the timing of the highest stages indicated the floods occurred later and later during the last six decades. The rainfall during the flood season and subsequent discharges of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River and runoff from the Poyang Lake Basin were mainly responsible for the severe flood situation in the Poyang Lake in the 1990 s. In addition, the intensive human activities, including land reclamation and levee construction, also played a supplementary role in increasing severity of major floods. While, the fewer floods in the Poyang Lake after 2000 can be attributed to not only the less rainfall over the Poyang Lake Basin and low discharges of the Changjiang River during flood periods, but also the stronger influences of human activity which increased the floodwater storage of the Poyang Lake than before.

Reconstruction of flood events over the last 150 years in the lower reaches of the Changjiang River

The reconstruction of paleofloods in the Holocene has become one research highlight for the present global change study.The core sediments from one newly-emerged bar in the lower Changjiang River(Yangtze River)mainstream were collected for grain size and organic elemental measurements,with aim to reconstruct the flood events over the past 150 years.Major grain size parameters such as mean grain size,probability cumulative curve and C-M diagram of the core sediments clearly indicate the flood event deposition.Furthermore,the TOC/TN ratios in the sediments can indicate flood events considering that during the flash floods,strong surface erosion in the upper and lower reaches of the Changjiang River can transport a large amount of undecomposed plant debris and organic components with relatively low C/N ratios into the lower mainstream.Based on 210Pb dating and sedimentary geochemical results,the research profile recorded several large floods happened from 1850 to 1954,which agrees well with the historical documents and hydrological observations.Interesting to note that the flood events since the 1960s cannot be distinctly recognized on the basis of sediment grain size and organic elemental compositions of the profile,which mainly reflects the intensive human activities over the last fifty years,especially condense dam construction,have significantly changed the characters of suspended sediment into the lower mainstream.

Large-scale atmospheric singularities and summer long-cycle droughts-floods abrupt alternation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

The daily precipitation data at 720 sta- tions over China for the 1957―2003 period during summer (May―August) are used to investigate the summer subseasonal long-cycle droughts-floods abrupt alternation (LDFA) phenomenon and a long-cycle droughts-floods abrupt alternation index (LDFAI) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYRV) is defined to quantify this phenomenon. The large-scale atmospheric circula- tion features in the anomalous LDFA years are ex- amined statistically. Results demonstrate that the summer droughts-to-floods (DTF) in the MLYRV usually accompany with the more southward western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), negative vorticity, strong divergence, descending movements develop- ing and the weak moisture transport in the low level, the more southward position of the South Asia high (SAH) and the westerly jets in the high level during May―June, but during July―August it is in the other way, northward shift of the WPSH, positive vorticity, strong convergence, ascending movements and strong moisture transport in the low level, and the northward shift of the SAH and the westerly jets in the high level. While for the summer floods-to-droughts (FTD) in the MLYRV it often goes with the active coldair mass from the high latitude, positive vorticity, strong convergence, ascending movement develop- ing and the strong moisture transport in the low level, and the SAH over the Tibetan Plateau in the high level, but during July―August it is often connected with the negative vorticity, strong divergence, de- scending movements developing and the weak moisture transport in the low level, the remarkable northward shift of the WPSH, the SAH extending northeastward to North China and the easterly jets prevailing in the high level over the MLYRV. In addi- tion, the summer LDFA in the MLYRV is of significant relationship with the Southern Hemisphere annual mode and the Northern Hemisphere annual mode in the preceding February, which offers some predictive signals for the summer LDFA forecasting in the MLYRV.

海温异常对长江流域夏季典型旱涝的影响研究

为研究长江流域夏季旱涝特征及其与海温异常之间的关联性,基于中国326个气象站降水量、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,采用合成分析、EOF分解等方法,分析了长江流域夏季典型旱涝年的降水分布、同期大气环流及前期海温特征,并以2018年为例,初步揭示了2018年前期海温异常对大气环流的可能影响。结果表明:①长江流域夏季典型旱年,仅嘉陵江和岷沱江会表现出局部偏涝,全国为典型的Ⅰ类雨型,多雨区位于黄河流域及以北地区。前期冬季赤道太平洋表现出类拉尼娜的东冷西暖分布,同时黑潮区海温偏低,西风漂流区海温偏暖。受多海域协同作用,同期欧亚环流场上自西北向东南呈现出“+-+”三极型分布,东亚地区为自北向南“-+-”的EAP负位相。长江流域典型涝年,全国多为典型的Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类雨型,环流及海温呈现出相反特征。②2018年为典型的长江中下游偏旱年,仅在岷沱江降水偏多近3成,为历史第4多,与长江流域夏季降水的主模态正位相类似,解释方差达24%。③2018年前冬出现弱拉尼娜、春末夏初西风漂流区异常偏暖、NAT异常正位相,三者共同作用,使得东亚副热带西风急流偏北,东亚沿岸出现EAP负位相,大陆热低压明显偏强,东亚夏季风为1961年以来最强,同时副高脊线最北,造成夏季降水主雨带北推至华北、西北地区,岷沱江、嘉陵江异常多,而长江中下游异常少,为典型的Ⅰ类雨型。研究成果可为长江流域旱涝预测、水资源调度提供参考。

海河“23·7”流域性特大洪水蓄滞洪区泥沙淤积分析

为探究海河“23·7”流域性特大洪水过程中蓄滞洪区泥沙淤积特征,评估受灾情况,基于实地淤积调查和高分遥感影像,计算淤积厚度空间分布,并结合DEM数据估算蓄滞洪量和蓄滞洪区利用率。结果表明:淤积厚度插值的均方根误差E_(RMS)为1.32,纳什系数E_(NS)为0.78,蓄滞洪量计算的E_(RMS)为0.75,E_(NS)为0.92,证明研究计算方法可行,计算结果可靠;8个蓄滞洪区共蓄洪24.63亿m^(3),蓄滞洪区利用率约为36.90%,平均淤积厚度为2.60 cm,总淤积量达7.67×10^(7) t;海河流域洪水含沙量约31.14 kg/m^(3),其中大清河系和永定河系的洪水含沙量达到过去20 a平均含沙量的20~40倍;此外,研究发现海河流域西部和北部山地的淤积情况更严重,较早启用的、位于上游的蓄滞洪区淤积量更大。

长江安徽段江湖连通性及生物通道恢复研究

江湖阻隔是导致长江中下游江湖复合生态系统衰退的最主要原因,江湖连通和生物通道恢复是流域生态修复的重要措施之一。通过现场调查等方法研究了华阳河湖群、菜子湖、升金湖和安庆西江古道等与长江干流的阻隔现状及连通性特征,在此基础上探讨了技术和管理层面存在的问题并提出对策建议。结果发现:依托涉水工程建设开展恢复河湖生物通道的做法可以有效缓解江湖复合生态系统的衰退,尤其是以“过鱼设施建设、季节性灌江纳苗、生态水网建设”相结合的生物通道恢复方案具有技术可行性。相关成果可为长江中下游江湖连通性及生物通道恢复、国家水网建设提供有益的参考。

洞庭湖四水流域水库群联合防洪优化调度

针对多防洪控制点的混联水库群联合防洪调度中防洪目标难以协调的问题,构建了以多流域协调条件下合成洪水洪峰流量最小为目标的水库群联合防洪调度模型,并采用逐步优化-逐次渐进算法(POA-SA)优化求解。在洞庭湖四水流域开展实例研究,基于防洪需求及各水库的特性,以四水流域下游尾闾控制站洪峰流量最小和四水汇流至洞庭湖的合成洪水洪峰流量最小为目标,提出典型年四水流域水库群联合防洪优化调度方案。结果表明:①针对1998年和2017年两场洪水,水库群联合优化调度后的四水合成汇入洞庭湖的洪峰削峰率比四水单独优化调度分别提高了9.4%和4.5%;②资水的柘溪水库和沅江的五强溪水库通过补偿调节,较好地实现了入湖洪水的错峰。对洞庭湖四水流域水库群联合调度可以保障四水流域自身防洪安全,并为洞庭湖防洪减压,研究成果可为流域水库群联合防洪调度提供参考。

东江流域控制性水工程联合调度策略与机制探讨

近年,东江流域旱涝事件并存,防洪与供水安全形势严峻,三大水库和干流梯级电站是东江流域水旱灾害防御中的重要水利工程。收集流域水工程多年运行经验、案例、数据,综述东江流域控制性水工程联合调度在管理体制、防洪调度、水量调度等方面的研究、实践现状,通过数学模型、统计等方法,对现状调度体制与机制中存在的问题进行分析。从管理、技术、研究等角度提出建议与对策。

基于补偿水头差的沿江口门引排流量计算方法研究

长江支流口门多建有节制闸,利用涨落潮过程自行引排水,而引排水流态的复杂性使得引排流量过程难以精准确定。以太湖流域杨林塘口门为例,通过分析引排水调度方式及流态特征,发现涨潮时开启中孔闸门引水,内河侧流态复杂且附近水位差别大,而落潮时开启全部闸门排水,外江侧流态复杂且附近水位有所差别。为此,提出了一种基于补偿水头差的沿江口门引排流量计算方法。该方法通过设置系列补偿水头差修正堰流公式中的水位,统计了计算流量与实测流量偏差值,进而建立了流量偏差值与补偿水头差的相关关系,最终确定适宜的补偿水头差,从而建立适宜沿江口门引排流量计算公式。结果表明:利用该方法预测的引水流量误差减小40%~50%,排水流量误差减小3%~6%。相关经验可供工程设计人员及闸管单位运行管理人员借鉴。