Business as Usual （BaU） scenario in developing countries has been a debated issue in climate change negotiations. This paper analyzes different definitions of BaU and points out that the major difference among these...Business as Usual （BaU） scenario in developing countries has been a debated issue in climate change negotiations. This paper analyzes different definitions of BaU and points out that the major difference among these definitions is how to set the starting point of BaU projections, that is the so called base year. Some international institutions use current policy scenarios to project a BaU trajectory of developing countries. Such definition will lead to an underestimation of BaU emissions of developing countries and thus an underestimation of mitigation efforts. This paper concludes with a suggestion to use a without policy scenario with a clear base year as definition of BaU. Such a definition will set an objective benchmark to assess mitigation efforts of develonin countries.展开更多
One of the impacts of the Fukushima disaster was the shutdown of all nuclear power plants in Japan,reaching zero production in 2015.In response,the country started importing more fossil energy including coal,oil,and n...One of the impacts of the Fukushima disaster was the shutdown of all nuclear power plants in Japan,reaching zero production in 2015.In response,the country started importing more fossil energy including coal,oil,and natural gas to fill the energy gap.However,this led to a significant increase in carbon emissions,hindering the efforts to reduce its carbon footprint.In the current situation,Japan is actively working to balance its energy requirements with environmental considerations,including the utilization of hydrogen fuel.Therefore,this paper aims to explore the feasibility and implications of using hydrogen power plants as a means to reduce emissions,and this analysis will be conducted using the energy modeling of the MARKAL-TIMES Japan framework.The hydrogen scenario(HS)is assumed with the extensive integration of hydrogen into the power generation sector,supported by a hydrogen import scheme.Additionally,this scenario will be compared with the Business as Usual(BAU)scenario.The results showed that the generation capacities of the BAU and HS scenarios have significantly different primary energy supplies.The BAU scenario is highly dependent on fossil fuels,while the HS scenario integrates hydrogen contribution along with an increase in renewable energy,reaching a peak contribution of 2,160 PJ in 2050.In the HS scenario,the target of reducing CO_(2) emissions by 80%is achieved through significant hydrogen penetration.By 2050,the total CO_(2) emissions are estimated to be 939 million tons for the BAU scenario and 261 million tons for the Hydrogen scenario.In addition,the contribution of hydrogen to electricity generation is expected to be 153 TWh,smaller than PV and wind power.展开更多
基金supported by Natural Science Foundation(No.71173131)National Program on Key BasicResearch Projects(No.2010CB95500)of China
文摘Business as Usual （BaU） scenario in developing countries has been a debated issue in climate change negotiations. This paper analyzes different definitions of BaU and points out that the major difference among these definitions is how to set the starting point of BaU projections, that is the so called base year. Some international institutions use current policy scenarios to project a BaU trajectory of developing countries. Such definition will lead to an underestimation of BaU emissions of developing countries and thus an underestimation of mitigation efforts. This paper concludes with a suggestion to use a without policy scenario with a clear base year as definition of BaU. Such a definition will set an objective benchmark to assess mitigation efforts of develonin countries.
文摘One of the impacts of the Fukushima disaster was the shutdown of all nuclear power plants in Japan,reaching zero production in 2015.In response,the country started importing more fossil energy including coal,oil,and natural gas to fill the energy gap.However,this led to a significant increase in carbon emissions,hindering the efforts to reduce its carbon footprint.In the current situation,Japan is actively working to balance its energy requirements with environmental considerations,including the utilization of hydrogen fuel.Therefore,this paper aims to explore the feasibility and implications of using hydrogen power plants as a means to reduce emissions,and this analysis will be conducted using the energy modeling of the MARKAL-TIMES Japan framework.The hydrogen scenario(HS)is assumed with the extensive integration of hydrogen into the power generation sector,supported by a hydrogen import scheme.Additionally,this scenario will be compared with the Business as Usual(BAU)scenario.The results showed that the generation capacities of the BAU and HS scenarios have significantly different primary energy supplies.The BAU scenario is highly dependent on fossil fuels,while the HS scenario integrates hydrogen contribution along with an increase in renewable energy,reaching a peak contribution of 2,160 PJ in 2050.In the HS scenario,the target of reducing CO_(2) emissions by 80%is achieved through significant hydrogen penetration.By 2050,the total CO_(2) emissions are estimated to be 939 million tons for the BAU scenario and 261 million tons for the Hydrogen scenario.In addition,the contribution of hydrogen to electricity generation is expected to be 153 TWh,smaller than PV and wind power.
