CLIMATE PREDICTION EXPERIMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS FREQUENCY USING THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION FORECAST BY A COUPLED GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODEL

Based on an analysis of the relationship between the tropical cyclone genesis frequency and large-scale circulation anomaly in NCEP reanalysis, large-scale atmosphere circulation information forecast by the JAMSTEC SINTEX-F coupled model is used to build a statistical model to predict the cyclogenesis frequency over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific. The SINTEX-F coupled model has relatively good prediction skill for some circulation features associated with the cyclogenesis frequency including sea level pressure, wind vertical shear, Intertropical Convergence Zone and cross-equatorial air flows. Predictors derived from these large-scale circulations have good relationships with the cyclogenesis frequency over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific. A multivariate linear regression(MLR) model is further designed using these predictors. This model shows good prediction skill with the anomaly correlation coefficient reaching, based on the cross validation, 0.71 between the observed and predicted cyclogenesis frequency. However, it also shows relatively large prediction errors in extreme tropical cyclone years(1994 and 1998, for example).

Large-scale circulation features associated with the heat wave over Northeast China in summer 2018

In late July and early August 2018,Northeast China suffered from extremely high temperatures,with the maxium temperature anomaly exceeding 6°C.In this study,the large-scale circulation features associated with this heat wave over Northeast China are analyzed using station temperature data and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data.The results indicate that strong anomalous positive geopotential height centers existed from the lower to upper levels over Northeast China,and the related downward motions were directly responsible for the extreme high-temperature anomalies.The northwestward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and the northeastward shift of the South Asian high concurrently reinforced the geopotential height anomalies and descending flow over Northeast China.In addition,an anomalous Pacific–Japan pattern in the lower troposphere led to the northwestward shift of the WPSH,jointly favoring the anomalous geopotential height over Northeast China.Two wave trains emanating from the Atlantic region propagated eastwards along high latitudes and midlatitudes,respectively,and converged over Northeast China,leading to the enhancement of the geopotential height anomalies.

Drought variability and its connection with large-scale atmospheric circulations in Haihe River Basin

Drought is one of the most widespread and devastating extreme climate events when water availability is significantly below normal levels for a long period.In recent years,the Haihe River Basin has been threatened by intensified droughts.Therefore,characterization of droughts in the basin is of great importance for sustainable water resources management.In this study,two multi-scalar drought indices,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)with potential evapotranspiration calculated by the PenmaneMonteith equation and the standardized precipitation index(SPI),were used to evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of drought characteristics from 1961 to 2017 in the Haihe River Basin.In addition,the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns were used to further explore the potential links between drought trends and climatic anomalies.An increasing tendency in drought duration was detected over the Haihe River Basin with frequent drought events occurring in the period from 1997 to 2003.The results derived from both SPEI and SPI demonstrated that summer droughts were significantly intensified.The analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns indicated that the intensified summer droughts could be attributed to the positive geopotential height anomalies in Asian mid-high latitudes and the insufficient water vapor fluxes transported from the south.©2021 Hohai University.Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Interannual Variation of Tropical Night Frequency in Beijing and Associated Large-Scale Circulation Background

This study examined the variability in frequency of tropical night occurrence （i.e., minimum air tem- perature 25℃） in Beijing, using a homogenized daily temperature dataset during the period 1960–2008. Our results show that tropical nights occur most frequently in late July and early August, which is consis- tent with relatively high air humidity associated with the rainy season in Beijing. In addition, year-to-year variation of tropical night occurrence indicates that the tropical nights have appeared much more frequently since 1994, which can be illustrated by the yearly days of tropical nights averaged over two periods： 9.2 days of tropical nights per year during 1994–2008 versus 3.15 days during 1960–1993. These features of tropical night variations suggest a distinction between tropical nights and extreme heat in Beijing. We further investigated the large-scale circulations associated with the year-to-year variation of tropical night occurrence in July and August, when tropical nights appear most frequently and occupy 95% of the annual sum. After comparing the results in the two reanalysis datasets （NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40） and considering the possible effects of decadal change in the frequency of tropical nights that occurred around 1993/94, we conclude that on the interannual time scale, the cyclonic anomaly with a barotropic structure centered over Beijing is responsible for less frequent tropical nights, and the anticyclonic anomaly is responsible for more frequent occurrence of tropical nights over Beijing.

VARYING SEASONS' MESOSCALE WIND FIELD CIRCULATION IN HAINAN ISLAND

Using a one-level numerical diagnostic model, the features of surface wind fields in Hainan Island and Leizhou Peninsula and maritime area around it are studied. In the experiments with prevailing synoptic situation for varying seasons there are obvious deflection flows, terrain slope drafts, convergence lines, sea/land breeze and mountain/valley breeze, and difference in season accounts for the features found in the mesoscale distribution.The complex terrain and seatland distribution in the area is shown to be the important cause for the formation of varying mesoscale circulation, and close relationships between local climatic distribution feature and mesoscale circulation are then revealed.

Calculation of flow distribution in air reverse circulation bit interior fluid field by simplifying air flow model

By simplifying the characters in the air reverse circulation bit interior fluid field, the authors used air dynamics and fluid mechanics to calculate the air distribution in the bit and obtained an equation of flow distribution with a unique resolution. This study will provide help for making certain the bit parameters of the bit structure effectively and study the air reverse circulation bit interior fluid field character deeply.

A STUDY ON FIELD WATER CIRCULATION PATTERN IN THE DRYLAND OF NORTHERN CHINA

Based on the observed data of soil moisture from locating experiments from 1986 to 1990, the pattern of field water circulation in dryland of northern China, where the mean annual precipitation is 300 600 mm, is studied in this paper using the method of water balance. The results show that water satisfying ratio of spring seeding crops is 83.7 90.8 percent and that of winter wheat is about 70 percent in these areas; about 80 90 percent of water consumption of spring seeding crops and about 60 70 percent of water consumption of winter wheat comes from precipitation during the growing period, the rest comes from the soil water storage before the seeding period. But the available soil water is not used thoroughly, about 30 70 percent of available soil water remains unused when the crops are harvested. At the fallow period, the amount of soil water lost by evaporation is very important, which takes up 57 68 percent of precipitation in winter wheat field and 73 244 percent in field of spring seeding crops. Thus restraining soil evaporation, raising the storage ratio of natural precipitation and the soil water utilization efficiency of crops, strengthening the circulation ability of soil water by adopting efficient measures of agricultural techniques, are the main ways for exploiting and developing the potential productivity of natural precipitation in these areas.

Characteristics Analysis of Extreme Circulation at 500 hPa of Height Field in Eurasian Region during Recent 20 Years

[ Objective] The research aimed to analyze extreme circulation characteristics at 500 hPa of height field in Eurasian region in recent 20 years. [ Method ] Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data at 500 hPa of height field from 1961 to 2009 of Eurasia （15° -80° N, 40° -150° E）, seasonal and monthly change situations of extreme circulation in Eurasia were studied by the method of climatologically equally likely intervals （ CE- Ll）. [Result] Growth rate of extremely low circulation increased in Eurasia in the last 20 years, but the rise amplitude was smaller. In the middle of China and Mongolia, grow rate change of extremely low circulation was the smallest. The growth rates of extremely high circulation in spring, au- tumn and winter gradually decreased as latitude rose. The maximum growth rate of extremely high circulation in summer was in Qinghai -Tibet Plat- eau, which corresponded with the climate characteristics of summer subtropical high going northward and then retreating southward. By contrasting the growth rates of extremely low and high circulation, it was clear that the growth rate of high circulation was higher than that of the low circulation. [Conusion] The research could be as a reference for studying change characteristics of the extreme climate event in China.

Telecorrelation of the 500 hPa Polar Circulation and El Nino / SO with the Temperature Fields in China

By using the monthly data from 1951 through 1984, empirical orthogonal expansion is performed for the 500 hPa geopotential height north of 65°N and the canonical fields are clustered by fuzzy classification. It is noted that both the mean monthly polar vortex fields and the large-scale anomaly fields fall into three regimes, with those of the January mean field and th April anomaly field having characteristic features. In addition, the relationship between the time weigthing coefficients of the canonical fields and El Nino / SO is examined, showing significant anomalies in the large-scale polar anomaly fields during April and October of the year when El Nino occurs. These polar circulation anomalies have considerably influenced the temperature fields in China during April and October. Thus, we may conclude that this is one of the most important reasons for a relatively cool April and a warm October in China during the El Nino year.

Optimization of reverse circulation bit based on field experiment

By field experiment in Sandaozhuang W-Mo mining area in Luanchuan of Henan Province, the authors analyzed the Experimental result of reverse circulation bit on the basis of different structures and obtained the following conclusion: the design parameter of reverse circulation bit, the number, diameter and angle of the spurt hole can influence on the reverse circulation effect. The bit with inner spurt hole is better obviously than that one without inner spurt hole in reverse circulation, one or two right and the best choice of inner spurt hole is that the diameter is Φ8, the angle is 30° dip up and the suitable number is two to three.

An Eddy-Permitting Oceanic General Circulation Model and Its Preliminary Evaluation

An eddy-permitting, quasi-global oceanic general circulation model, LICOM (LASG/IAP (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics) Climate System Ocean Model), with a uniform grid of 0.5? × 0.5? is established. Forced by wind stresses from Hellerman and Rosenstain (1983), a 40-yr integration is conducted with sea surface temperature and salinity being restored to the Levitus 94 datasets. The evaluation of the annual mean climatology of the LICOM control run shows that the large-scale circulation can be well reproduced. A comparison between the LICOM control run and a parallel integration of L30T63, which has the same framework but a coarse resolution, is also made to con?rm the impact of resolution on the model performance. On account of the reduction of horizontal viscosity with the enhancement of the horizontal resolution, LICOM improves the simulation with respect to not only the intensity of the large scale circulations, but also the magnitude and structure of the Equatorial Undercurrent and South Equatorial Current. Taking advantage of the ?ne grid size, the pathway of the Indonesian Through?ow (ITF) is better represented in LICOM than in L30T63. The transport of ITF in LICOM is more convergent in the upper layer. As a consequence, the Indian Ocean tends to get warmer in LICOM. The poleward heat transports for both the global and individual basins are also signi?cantly improved in LICOM. A decomposed analysis indicates that the transport due to the barotropic gyre, which primarily stands for the barotropic e?ect of the western boundary currents, plays a crucial role in making the di?erence.

A THREE-LAYER OCEAN CIRCULATION MODEL APPLICATION TO NUMERICAL STUDIES ON THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN CIRCULATION

The formulation and justification of a three-layer baroclinic ocean model developed to simulate thegeneral circulation of the ocean are described in this paper.Test of the model in simulating the annualmean circulation patterns in the North Pacific under the prescribed atmospheric forcing,which consists ofthe climatological surface wind stress and sea surface heat flux,and comparison of the results withobservations showed that the model basically simulated the large scale features of the annual meancirculation patterns in the North Pacific Ocean such as those of the intensified western boundary currentsand the North Equatorial Currents and Undercurrents.But due to the coarse resolution of the model,some details of these currents were poorly reproduced.The seasonal variations of the North Pacific Oceancirculation driven by the seasonal mean sea surface wind stress was calculated,the different aspects of theseresults were analyzed and the main current(the intensified western boundary currents)transports

Relationships between the Oxygen Isotopes in East Asian Stalagmites and Large-Scale Atmospheric and Oceanic Modes

The stalagmite δ18O record is known to be associated with the climate, but the specifics of the relationship remain unclear. It may not represent variation in air temperature or precipitation, but instead reflect integral changes of monsoon circulation, especially water vapor sources(the so-called "circulation effect"). Since large-scale atmospheric-oceanic modes such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) exert significant effects on Asian monsoon, in this paper the authors investigate the relationships of the East Asian stalagmite δ18O record with these modes. The last three centuries form the focus of our study, for which the authors use reconstructed as well as instrumental data. Considering the impacts of human activity, our analysis is conducted with respect to two periods—the pre- and post-industrial periods. The results show significant lead-lag connections: a positive correlation peaks when the PDO leads East Asian stalagmite δ18O by 3 years, which is persistent over the past 300 years; while the relationships of the AMO and NAO with the East Asian stalagmite δ18O record show significant differences in the post-industrial relative to the pre-industrial period. This implies that the East Asian stalagmite δ18O record may primarily reflect the PDO signal.

Circulation-Enhanced Tank Heating Using Shallow Profile Coil Bundles

Heavy fuel oils require heated tanks to facilitate their transportation and processing.This paper proposes and investigates threeand four-level heating coil bundles.Numerical study revealed that powerful large-scale circulation of the heated fluid enhances heat transfer,delivering 16.7%and 23%improvements to the average heat transfer coefficient for the three-and four-level bundles,respectively.Furthermore,this circulation improves oil mixing and limits the variation in bulk oil temperature to-0.3 to+1.3°C from the average.The study also quantified oil flow velocity near the bottom of the tank.The time-averaged horizontal components of velocity,estimated 25 mm and 50 mm above the bottom of the tank,exceed 2 mm/s and 4 mm/s,respectively.The proposed heating coil bundles feature a compact design that reduces the material and labor costs of construction and that,by occupying only a small portion of the bottom of the tank,improves accessibility,maintenance,and cleaning.

Inferring of Organochlorine Pesticide Transmission under Atmospheric Circulation Impact

[ Objective] The study aims to infer the transmission of organochlorine pesticides under the influence of atmospheric circulation. [ Meth- od] A transmission profile of organochlorine pesticides was established in the region from the western margin of the Sichuan Basin to the western Si- chuan plateau, from which atmospheric particulate matter, atmospheric dry and wet deposition samples as well as corresponding soil samples were collected and analyzed. [ Result~ The study showed that HCHs content was the highest on the elevation boundaries of the study area, and,8-HCH content was the highest in the study area, indicating that there were no new HCHs input to the study area. In respect of HCHs content in the soil and atmospheric precipitation, it was significantly higher in low-lying areas than that of high-altitude areas. Besides, sources of organechlorine pesti- cides in high-altitude areas were mostly derived from atmospheric particulate matter and atmospheric dry deposition. A variety of factors affected the long-distance transmission of organochlorine pesticides, and the form of the atmospheric transport of organochlorine pesticides could be determined accurately based on the content of organochlorine pesticides in different media of each sample point. In different months, the sources of organechlo- rine pesticides in the atmospheric transmission varied with atmospheric circulation direction, so it could not be simply thought that organochlorine pesticides were transmitted from low-lying areas to high-altitude areas. Meanwhile, there was a transformation between the source and sink of or- ganochlorine pesticides in plateau areas because of atmospheric circulation changed. [ Condusionl The research could provide scientific references for the control of persistent organic pollutant diffusion and establishment of environmental protection measures. ds

Evolving Perspectives on Abrupt Seasonal Changes of the General Circulation

Professor Duzheng YE（Tu-cheng YEH） was decades ahead of his time in proposing a model experiment to investigate whether abrupt seasonal changes of the general circulation can arise through circulation feedbacks alone, unrelated to underlying inhomogeneities at the lower boundary. Here, we introduce Professor YEH＇s ideas during the 1950 s and 1960 s on the general circulation and summarize the results and suggestions of Yeh et al.（1959） on abrupt seasonal changes. We then review recent advances in understanding abrupt seasonal changes arising from model experiments like those proposed by Yeh et al.（1959）. The model experiments show that circulation feedbacks can indeed give rise to abrupt seasonal transitions.In these transitions, large-scale eddies that originate in midlatitudes and interact with the zonal mean flow and meridional overturning circulations in the tropics play central roles.

Numerical Modelling of the Effects of Ozone on the Summer Atmospheric Circulation

The effects of ozone on the summer atmospheric general circulation are simulated by use of a zonal model with the pesigma coordinate system. Results show that the simulated properties at the upper levels are remarkably improved after the ozone effects are introduced to the model. The direct effect of ozone is to enhance the heating rates at the upper levels. In the lower atmosphere. this effect is very little. Furthermore, the ozone can change the distributions and values of other components of heating fields, resulting in the change of the total heating rates, and meanwhile induce evident variation of atmospheric circulation at the lower levels.

Study on an novel composite gel material solving serious lost circulations and pressurization sealing

Lost circulations have presented great challenges to the petroleum industry, causing great expenditures of cash and time to fighting the problem. Probably the most problematic situations are the naturally fractured formations where the operator may face total loss with no mud return in the annular. The voids or large fracture encountered in this case are often far too large to be plugged with conventional Lost Circulation Material. This paper will give a detailed introduction on a novel composite gel material usable to control severe losses and pressurization sealing. The plugging mechanics of this new composite gel material, which is different from conventional lost circulation materials, were elaborated as well. In addition, the properties of the new composite gel material such as thermostability, sealing strength and bearing resistance are characterized with specific experimental devices. The experimental results proved that the breakdown pressure of the new plugging reached more than 20MPa, and the maximum degraded temperature can be exceed 130℃. The field application at 4 wells in Puguang gas field, SINOPEC, demonstrated that the new composite gel material solved the serious loss in Ordovician carbonate fractured formation successfully and guaranteed the following completion cement operation smoothly. The composite gel sealing slurries, which was easily prepared on site, gives remarkable properties regarding pumping through drill pipes, adjustment of setting time and excellent sealing strength of the lost zone sealing, additionally, the whole pressurization sealing process was complicated within only ten hours. The on-site results show that the plugging ratio of the new composite gel was reached 100%, and the success rate of sealing operation kept above 80%.Thus the new LCM can guarantee safe drilling jobs and save operation cost more effectively.

The internal circulations on internal mass transfer rate of a single drop in nonlinear uniaxial extensional flow

The internal flow of a droplet in the nonlinear extensional flow field will exhibit more than two internal circulations with the variation of nonlinear intensity(E).In this paper,the effect of positions and sizes of internal circulations on internal mass transfer rate of a single spherical droplet in a nonlinear extensional flow field is studied and compared with that in a linear extensional flow field.The simulation results show that when E≥0,there are two symmetrical internal circulations in the droplet,which is the same with that in a linear extensional flow.The limit value of mass transfer rate Sh is 15,which is equal to that in a linear extensional flow,no matter how large E is.When E≤-3/7,the number of internal flow circulation of a droplet increase to four and the transfer rate Sh increases.When E=-1,the maximum internal transfer rate Sh equals 30 which is twice of that in a linear extensional flow.The generation of new flow circulations in droplets and the circulation positions will enhance mass transfer when E≤-3/7,which provides a new idea for enhancing the internal mass transfer rate of droplets.

The interannual periodicity of precipitation and its links to the large-scale circulations over the Third Pole

To understand the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation(P)in the Third Pole region(centered on the Tibetan Plateau-TP),it is necessary to quantify the interannual periodicity of P and its relationship with large-scale circulations.In this study,Morlet wavelet transform was used to detect significant(p<0.05)periodic characteristics in P data from meteorological stations in four climate domains in the Third Pole,and to reveal the major large-scale circulations that triggered the variability of periodic P,in addition to bringing large amounts of water vapour.The wavelet transform results were as follows.(1)Significant quasiperiodicity varied from 2 to 11 years.The high-frequency variability mode(2 to 6 years quasi-periods)was universal,and the low-frequency variability mode(7 to 11 years quasi-periods)was rare,occurring mainly in the westerlies and Indian monsoon domains.(2)The majority of periods were base periods(53%),followed by two-base periods.Almost all stations in the Third Pole(95%)showed one or two periods.(3)Periodicity was widely detected in the majority of years(84%).(4)The power spectra of P in the four domains were dominated by statistically significant high-frequency oscillations(ie.,with short periodicity).(5)Large-scale circulations directly and indirectly influenced the periodic P variability in the different domains.The mode of P variability in the different domains was influenced by interactions between large-scale circulation features and not only by the dominant circulation and its control of water vapour transport.The results of this study will contribute to better understanding of the causal mechanisms associated with P variability,which is important for hydrological science and waterresourcemanagement.