Thornthwaite moisture index and depth of suction change under current and future climate‒An Australian study

Climate change is one of the major global challenges and it can have a significant influence on the behaviour and resilience of geotechnical structures.The changes in moisture content in soil lead to effective stress changes and can be accompanied by significant volume changes in reactive/expansive soils.The volume change leads to ground movement and can exert additional stresses on structures founded on or within a shallow depth of such soils.Climate change is likely to amplify the ground movement potential and the associated problems are likely to worsen.The effect of atmospheric boundary interaction on soil behaviour has often been correlated to Thornthwaite moisture index(TMI).In this study,the long-term weather data and anticipated future projections for various emission scenarios were used to generate a series of TMI maps for Australia.The changes in TMI were then correlated to the depth of suction change(H s),an important input in ground movement calculation.Under all climate scenarios considered,reductions in TMI and increases in H s values were observed.A hypothetical design scenario of a footing on expansive soil under current and future climate is discussed.It is observed that a design that might be considered adequate under the current climate scenario,may fail under future scenarios and accommodations should be made in the design for such events.

Changing Characteristics of Comfort Index of Human Body in Bengbu City in the Past 40 Years under the Background of Climate Change

Based on the daily meteorological data of Bengbu City during 1981-2020,the changing characteristics of three elements needed for the calculation of the comfort index of human body(CIHB)were discussed,and daily CIHB was classified and discussed.The results show that from 1981 to 2020,annual average temperature tended to increase significantly.Annual average wind speed and relative humidity showed a decreasing trend before 2011 but an increasing trend after 2011.The duration of the four seasons in Bengbu City mainly rose in spring,reduced in winter,declined first and then increased in summer,and rose first and then decreased in autumn.As CIHB was at grades 1 and 9(the most uncomfortable),the three factors had different effects on them.For cold weather,the influence of relative humidity and wind speed on CIHB can not be ignored besides temperature.In hot weather,the influence of temperature was dominant,and the change of annual average temperature could well correspond to the change in the number of very hot days.In the context of climate warming,the number of cold days tended to decline generally,but it was larger in the years with fewer very cold days.Under the background of climate warming,there was no obvious change in the number of days of the overall comfort of human body.The number of hot days was closely related to the duration of summer,and the number of days of grade 8 rose significantly in the years with an increase in the duration of summer.

Response of vegetation variation to climate change and human activities in the Shiyang River Basin of China during 2001-2022

Understanding the response of vegetation variation to climate change and human activities is critical for addressing future conflicts between humans and the environment,and maintaining ecosystem stability.Here,we aimed to identify the determining factors of vegetation variation and explore the sensitivity of vegetation to temperature(SVT)and the sensitivity of vegetation to precipitation(SVP)in the Shiyang River Basin(SYRB)of China during 2001-2022.The climate data from climatic research unit(CRU),vegetation index data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS),and land use data from Landsat images were used to analyze the spatial-temporal changes in vegetation indices,climate,and land use in the SYRB and its sub-basins(i.e.,upstream,midstream,and downstream basins)during 2001-2022.Linear regression analysis and correlation analysis were used to explore the SVT and SVP,revealing the driving factors of vegetation variation.Significant increasing trends(P<0.05)were detected for the enhanced vegetation index(EVI)and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)in the SYRB during 2001-2022,with most regions(84%)experiencing significant variation in vegetation,and land use change was determined as the dominant factor of vegetation variation.Non-significant decreasing trends were detected in the SVT and SVP of the SYRB during 2001-2022.There were spatial differences in vegetation variation,SVT,and SVP.Although NDVI and EVI exhibited increasing trends in the upstream,midstream,and downstream basins,the change slope in the downstream basin was lower than those in the upstream and midstream basins,the SVT in the upstream basin was higher than those in the midstream and downstream basins,and the SVP in the downstream basin was lower than those in the upstream and midstream basins.Temperature and precipitation changes controlled vegetation variation in the upstream and midstream basins while human activities(land use change)dominated vegetation variation in the downstream basin.We concluded that there is a spatial heterogeneity in the response of vegetation variation to climate change and human activities across different sub-basins of the SYRB.These findings can enhance our understanding of the relationship among vegetation variation,climate change,and human activities,and provide a reference for addressing future conflicts between humans and the environment in the arid inland river basins.

Effects of nitrogen deposition on the carbon budget and water stress in Central Asia under climate change

Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen(N)plays a significant role in shaping the structure and functioning of various terrestrial ecosystems worldwide.However,the magnitude of N deposition on grassland ecosystems in Central Asia still remains highly uncertain.In this study,a multi-data approach was adopted to analyze the distribution and amplitude of N deposition effects in Central Asia from 1979 to 2014 using a process-based denitrification decomposition(DNDC)model.Results showed that total vegetation carbon(C)in Central Asia was 0.35(±0.09)Pg C/a and the averaged water stress index(WSI)was 0.20(±0.02)for the whole area.Increasing N deposition led to an increase in the vegetation C of 65.56(±83.03)Tg C and slightly decreased water stress in Central Asia.Findings of this study will expand both our understanding and predictive capacity of C characteristics under future increases in N deposition,and also serve as a valuable reference for decision-making regarding water resources management and climate change mitigation in arid and semi-arid areas globally.

Impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation dynamics on the Mongolian Plateau, East Asia from 2000 to 2023

The Mongolian Plateau in East Asia is one of the largest contingent arid and semi-arid areas of the world.Under the impacts of climate change and human activities,desertification is becoming increasingly severe on the Mongolian Plateau.Understanding the vegetation dynamics in this region can better characterize its ecological changes.In this study,based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)images,we calculated the kernel normalized difference vegetation index(kNDVI)on the Mongolian Plateau from 2000 to 2023,and analyzed the changes in kNDVI using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall significance test.We further investigated the impact of climate change on kNDVI change using partial correlation analysis and composite correlation analysis,and quantified the effects of climate change and human activities on kNDVI change by residual analysis.The results showed that kNDVI on the Mongolian Plateau was increasing overall,and the vegetation recovery area in the southern region was significantly larger than that in the northern region.About 50.99%of the plateau showed dominant climate-driven effects of temperature,precipitation,and wind speed on kNDVI change.Residual analysis showed that climate change and human activities together contributed to 94.79%of the areas with vegetation improvement.Appropriate human activities promoted the recovery of local vegetation,and climate change inhibited vegetation growth in the northern part of the Mongolian Plateau.This study provides scientific data for understanding the regional ecological environment status and future changes and developing effective ecological protection measures on the Mongolian Plateau.

A CMIP6-based assessment of regional climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains

Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes,agricultural production,and human society.Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting.The Chinese Tianshan Mountains(CTM)have a high climate sensitivity,rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming.In this study,we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset(1961-2014)and 24 global climate models(GCMs)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale.Based on this,we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends,dry-wet transitions(based on the standardized precipitation index(SPI)),and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961-2014.We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms(near-term(2021-2040),mid-term(2041-2060),and long-term(2081-2100))relative to the historical period(1961-2014)under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5).It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014,and will also experience warming in the future(2021-2100).Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble(MME)from the CMIP6 GCMs.The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008,which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989.The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM.Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM.By the end of the 21st century,all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry-wet transitions.However,the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperature in the future,so the nature of the drought in the CTM will not change at all.Additionally,the projected summer precipitation shows negative correlation with the radiative forcing.This study holds practical implications for the awareness of climate change and subsequent research in the CTM.

Study on Ecological Change Remote Sensing Monitoring Method Based on Elman Dynamic Recurrent Neural Network

In this paper, Hailin City of Heilongjiang Province, China is taken as the research area. As an important city in Heilongjiang Province, China, the sustainable development of its ecological environment is related to the opening up, economic prosperity and social stability of Northeast China. In this paper, the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) of Hailin City in recent 20 years was calculated by using Landsat 5/8/9 series satellite images, and the temporal and spatial changes of the ecological environment in Hailin City were further analyzed and the influencing factors were discussed. From 2003 to 2023, the mean value of RSEI in Hailin City decreased and increased, and the ecological environment decreased slightly as a whole. RSEI declined most significantly from 2003 to 2008, and it increased from 2008 to 2013, decreased from 2013 to 2018, and increased from 2018 to 2023 again, with higher RSEI value in the south and lower RSEI value in the northwest. It is suggested to appropriately increase vegetation coverage in the northwest to improve ecological quality. As a result, the predicted value of Elman dynamic recurrent neural network model is consistent with the change trend of the mean value, and the prediction error converges quickly, which can accurately predict the ecological environment quality in the future study area.

Assessment of future Antarctic amplification of surface temperature change under different Scenarios from CMIP6

Global warming may result in increased polar amplification,but future temperature changes under different climate change scenarios have not been systematically investigated over Antarctica.An index of Antarctic amplification(AnA)is defined,and the annual and seasonal variations of Antarctic mean temperature are examined from projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)under scenarios SSP119,SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585.AnA occurs under all scenarios,and is strongest in the austral summer and autumn,with an AnA index greater than 1.40.Although the warming over Antarctica accelerates with increased anthropogenic forcing,the magnitude of AnA is greatest in SSP126 instead of in SSP585,which may be affected by strong ocean heat uptake in high forcing scenario.Moreover,future AnA shows seasonal difference and regional difference.AnA is most conspicuous in the East Antarctic sector,with the amplification occurring under all scenarios and in all seasons,especially in austral summer when the AnA index is greater than 1.50,and the weakest signal appears in austral winter.Differently,the AnA over West Antarctica is strongest in austral autumn.Under SSP585,the temperature increase over the Antarctic Peninsula exceeds 0.5℃when the global average warming increases from 1.5℃to 2.0℃above preindustrial levels,except in the austral summer,and the AnA index in this region is strong in the austral autumn and winter.The projections suggest that the warming rate under different scenarios might make a large difference to the future AnA.

Demographic changes in China’s forests from 1998 to 2018

Background: Tree demography is an essential indicator of various forest ecosystem services, and understanding its changes is critical for the sustainable management of forests. During the past four decades, China implemented unprecedented forest restoration projects, which altered tree demography by increasing the number of trees and introducing new species. However, it remains unclear how species composition has changed in China in response to the past forest restoration and demographical processes.Methods: We applied Forest Stability Index(FSI) and the relative change of FSI(%FSI) to describe the population dynamics of tree species and structure in China since 1998, using field-survey data collected from over 200,000plot-records from the 6th to 9th National Forest Inventories(NFIs).Results: The overall populations of both natural and planted forests have grown rapidly from 1998 to 2018, while the range of changes in the relative tree density was more variable for natural forests(ranging from-8.53% to42.46%) than for planted forests(ranging from-1.01% to 13.31%). The populations declined only in some of the tree species, including Betula platyphylla, Ulmus pumila, and Robinia pseudoacacia. In contrast, the populations of trees in the largest size-class either remained stable or expanded.Conclusions: Tree density of China?s forests(both natural and planted forests) generally expanded and the overall populations increased in most size classes, with greater increases occurred in planted forests. In contrasting to the global decline trends of large diameter trees, here we found no apparent decline for trees in the largest size-class in China, highlighting China?s success in improving forest health and forest adaptations to climate change. We advocate for more studies to reveal the mechanisms of the changes in tree demography, which will help to improve forest ecosystem services such as the carbon sequestration capacity.

Heterogeneity and non-linearity of ecosystem responses to climate change in the Qilian Mountains National Park, China

Ecosystem responses to climate change,particularly in arid environments,is an understudied topic.This study conducted a spatial analysis of ecosystem responses to short-term variability in temperature,precipitation,and solar radiation in the Qilian Mountains National Park,an arid mountainous region in Northwest China.We collected precipitation and temperature data from the National Science and Technology Infrastructure Platform,solar radiation data from the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset,and vegetation cover remote-sensing data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer.We used the vegetation sensitivity index to identify areas sensitive to climate change and to determine which climatic factors were significant in this regard.The findings revealed a high degree of heterogeneity and non-linearity of ecosystem responses to climate change.Four types of heterogeneity were identified:longitude,altitude,ecosystem,and climate disturbance.Furthermore,the characteristics of nonlinear ecosystem responses to climate change included:(1)inconsistency in the controlling climatic factors for the same ecosystems in different geographical settings;(2)the interaction between different climatic factors results in varying weights that affect ecosystem stability and makes them difficult to determine;and(3)the hysteresis effect of vegetation increases the uncertainty of ecosystem responses to climate change.The findings are significant because they highlight the complexity of ecosystem responses to climate change.Furthermore,the identification of areas that are particularly sensitive to climate change and the influencing factors has important implications for predicting and managing the impacts of climate change on ecosystems,which can help protect the stability of ecosystems in the Qilian Mountains National Park.

Interannual Variability of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index on the Tibetan Plateau and Its Relationship with Climate Change

The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, or Tibetan Plateau, is a sensitive region for climate change, where the manifestation of global warming is particularly noticeable. The wide climate variability in this region significantly affects the local land ecosystem and could consequently lead to notable vegetation changes. In this paper, the interannual variations of the plateau vegetation are investigated using a 21-year normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） dataset to quantify the consequences of climate warming for the regional ecosystem and its interactions. The results show that vegetation coverage is best in the eastern and southern plateau regions and deteriorates toward the west and north. On the whole, vegetation activity demonstrates a gradual enhancement in an oscillatory manner during 1982-2002. The temporal variation also exhibits striking regional differences： an increasing trend is most apparent in the west, south, north and southeast, whereas a decreasing trend is present along the southern plateau boundary and in the central-east region. Covariance analysis between the NDVI and surface temperature/precipitation suggests that vegetation change is closely related to climate change. However, the controlling physical processes vary geographically. In the west and east, vegetation variability is found to be driven predominantly by temperature, with the impact of precipitation being of secondary importance. In the central plateau, however, temperature and precipitation factors are equally important in modulating the interannual vegetation variability.

Secular Changes on the Distribution of Body Mass Index among Chinese Children and Adolescents, 1985-2010

Objective To analyze the change in Body Mass Index （BMI） distribution among Chinese children and adolescents for the development of more effective intervention for childhood obesity. Methods Data on the national students＇ constitution and health survey between 1985 and 2010 was used for this study. Subjects were students aged 7-18 randomly selected from 30 provinces in China. BMI for-age curves were developed by LMS method, and the trend of BMI distribution was determined by comparing the upper BMI percentiles and analyzing the skew shift of distribution between 2985 and 2010. Results An overall positive swift trend of BMI between 1985 and 2010 was observed among the Chinese school-age children and adolescents. The average median of the BMI increased from 16.8 and 17.0 ks/m2 to 18.2 and 17.9 kg/m2 in 25 years, with increments 0.56 and 0.36 kg/m2 per decade for males and females, respectively. The more obvious increments were found at the high BMI. The total increments of BMI in this period were 4.03 and 2.20 kg/m2 at the 85th, 6.24 and 3.57 kg/m2 at the 95th, and 6.99 and 4.27 kg/m2 at the 97th percentiles, for males and females, respectively. Conclusion Obvious increments were observed at high BMI of the Chinese children and adolescents. More effective interventions should be taken for control and prevention of obesity and its health consequence for these subgroups. It is necessary to establish a risk-complex system consisting of the identification of BMI scope, the screen of the disease risk factors and the assessment of excessive adiposity.

Predictive Values of Postoperative and Dynamic Changes of Inflammation Indexes in Survival of Patients with Resected Colorectal Cancer

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic potential of postoperative scores of inflammation indexes and the dynamic changes of scores before and after tumor resection in colorectal cancer patients.The study included 516 colorectal cancer patients with primary colorectal tumor resection.Cox regression was applied to estimate the associations of postoperative and dynamic changes of inflammation indexes with progression-free survival and overall survival.As results,we found that higher postoperative neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR),neutrophil and monocyte to lymphocyte ratio (NMLR),platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and systemic immune inflammation index (SII)were associated with shorter progression-free survival.The increased NLR,NMLR,PLR,SII and C-reaction protein (CRP)to albumin (ALB) ratio (CAR)were associated with poor progression-free survival,with HRs (95% CIs)of 1.92 (1.27-2.90),1.46(1.11-2.09),2.10(1.34-3.30),1.81(1.22-2.70)and 1.65(1.03-2.67), respectively.Postoperative NMLR,SII,CAR,and their dynamic changes were also significantly correlated with overall survival,with the HRs (95% CIs)of 2.63(1.30-3.97), 2.44(1.43-4.17),2.74(1.31-5.74),2.08(1.21-3.60),1.97(1.12-3.45)and 2.55(1.21-5.38)respectively.In conclusion,postoperative inflammation indexes and their dynamic changes,particularly for NMLR,SII and CAR are promising prognostic predictors of CRC patients.

Early Cretaceous Climate Changes Recorded in Magnetic Susceptibility and Color Index Variations of the Lower Liupanshan Group, Central China

This study carried out comprehensive analysis on sedimentology, magnetic susceptibility （7of） and color data of the continental sediments of the Liupanshan Group in Central China so as to obtain climatic change information during the 129.14-122.98 Ma interval. Based on the results of the Xlf and of the redness （a＊）, the section can be divided into two segments： （1） 129.14-126.3 Ma, with the lowest Xlf values and strongly variable relatively high values of redness and （2） 126.3-122.98 Ma, with high Elf values and relatively low redness. Analysis of the lithology and facies as well as the magnetic minerals and their contents points to a detrital origin of the magnetic minerals and this allow us to interpret the relationship between magnetic susceptibility variations and climate changes. Our study shows that the climate was significantly dry and hot during the whole studied interval although the interval between 126.3 Ma and 122.98 was a little bit cooler with increased humidity.

Applying the Global Disturbance Index for Detecting Vegetation Changes in Lao Tropical Forests

Land cover change is a major challenge for many developing countries. Spatiotemporal information on this change is essential for monitoring global terrestrial ecosystem carbon, climate and biosphere exchange, and land use management. A combination of LST and the EVI indices in the global disturbance index (DI) has been proven to be useful for detecting and monitoring of changes in land covers at continental scales. However, this model has not been adequately applied or assessed in tropical regions. We aimed to demonstrate and evaluate the DI algorithm used to detect spatial change in land covers in Lao tropical forests. We used the land surface temperature and enhanced vegetation index of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer time-series products from 2006-2012. We used two dates Google EarthTM images in 2006 and 2012 as ground truth data for accuracy assessment of the model. This research demonstrated that the DI was capable of detecting vegetation changes during seven-year periods with high overall accuracy;however, it showed low accuracy in detecting vegetation decrease.

Study on Index System of the Environmental Change and Ecological Security for a River Basin Based on DPSIR Model

[ Objective] The research aimed to study index system of the environmental change and ecological security for a river basin based on DPSIR model. [Method] Based on considering each influence factor of the environmental change and ecological security for a river basin, DPSIR model as framework, the basic framework, principle and related method of index system of the environmental change and ecological security for a river basin under influence of the multi-level development were put forward. [ ]Result] Index system of the environmental change and ecological se- curity for a river basin based on DPSIR model included driving force indicator, pressure indicator, state indicator, influence indicator and response indicator. Each indicator type also had many sub-indicators. [ Conclusion] The research provided theoretical support and method reference for as- sessment of the ecological security and execution of the ecological environment management for a river basin in China.

Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin, Peru

Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. This study assessed the projections of precipitation and potential evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes, which is important for agriculture and energy production in Peru. We assumed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)A_1B greenhouse gas emission scenario and simulated the global climate change by the HadCM_3 global climate model. Due to the steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model simulations by the regional Eta model down to 20-km resolution. The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially during the rainy season,between February and April, until the end of the 21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The Modified Fournier Index(MFI) shows a statistically significant downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, which suggests a possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The Precipitation Concentration Index(PCI) shows a statistically significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro River Basin in Peru.

Comparison of resistive index and shear-wave elastography in the evaluation of chronic kidney allograft dysfunction

BACKGROUND Detection of early chronic changes in the kidney allograft is important for timely intervention and long-term survival.Conventional and novel ultrasound-based investigations are being increasingly used for this purpose with variable results.AIM To compare the diagnostic performance of resistive index(RI)and shear wave elastography(SWE)in the diagnosis of chronic fibrosing changes of kidney allograft with histopathological results.METHODS This is a cross-sectional and comparative study.A total of 154 kidney transplant recipients were included in this study,which was conducted at the Departments of Transplantation and Radiology,Sindh Institute of Urology and Transplantation,Karachi,Pakistan,from August 2022 to February 2023.All consecutive patients with increased serum creatinine levels and reduced glomerular filtration rate(GFR)after three months of transplantation were enrolled in this study.SWE and RI were performed and the findings of these were evaluated against the kidney allograft biopsy results to determine their diagnostic utility.RESULTS The mean age of all patients was 35.32±11.08 years.Among these,126(81.8%)were males and 28(18.2%)were females.The mean serum creatinine in all patients was 2.86±1.68 mg/dL and the mean estimated GFR was 35.38±17.27 mL/min/1.73 m2.Kidney allograft biopsy results showed chronic changes in 55(37.66%)biopsies.The sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value(PPV),and negative predictive value(NPV)of SWE for the detection of chronic allograft damage were 93.10%,96.87%%,94.73%,and 95.87%,respectively,and the diagnostic accuracy was 95.45%.For RI,the sensitivity,specificity,PPV,and NPV were 76.92%,83.33%,70.17%,and 87.62%,respectively,and the diagnostic accuracy was 81.16%.CONCLUSION The results from this study show that SWE is more sensitive and specific as compared to RI in the evaluation of chronic allograft damage.It can be of great help during the routine follow-up of kidney transplant recipients for screening and early detection of chronic changes and selecting patients for allograft biopsy.

Water Quality Index Assessment under Climate Change

Surface water quality may change in the future due to climatic variability as natural processes will most likely be modified by anthropogenic activities. As such, stream temperature is very likely to change as well which will impact on surface water quality and aquatic ecosystem dynamics. The present study focused on improving modelling of surface water quality indices and water quality parameters under various climate change scenarios in relationship with stream temperature. Future climate data were extracted from the Canadian Coupled General Climate Model (CGCM 3.1/ T63) under the greenhouse emission scenarios B1 and A2, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This study illustrates the usefulness of the stream temperature models, coupled with Climate Change Scenarios to predict the evolution of future stream water temperature regimes and associated biogeochemical water quality parameters pertaining to drinking water quality. The specific objectives of the present study were to analyze the surface water quality of 15 rivers in New Brunswick (Canada) on the basis of 9 parameters under climate change. A Weighed Method and the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) Method were used to assess the water quality for each river under present and future climate. The knowledge gained from this study will enable engineers and water resources managers to better understand river thermal regimes and climate change impact on water quality related to Drinking Surface Water.

Climate Change Index: A Proposed Methodology for Assessing Susceptibility to Future Climatic Extremes

A Climate Change Index (CCI) was designed to assess the degree of susceptibility to the climatic extremes projected for the future. Climate projections for the period 2041-2070 are extracted from the numerical integrations of INPE’s Eta-HadCM3 model, using the SRES A1B emissions scenario. Five indicators were chosen to represent the climatic extremes: Total annual precipitation, precipitation on the days of heavy rain, the maximum number of consecutive dry days in the year and the annual mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures. The methodology was applied to the state of Paraná. The results point to a very strong warming in 99% of the municipalities, with temperature increases between 6 and 8 times greater than the variance observed in the present climate. On the other hand, projections of precipitation do not indicate major changes in relation to present behavior.