IMPACT OF HUMIDITY DATA ON THE PREDICTION OF ONSET VORTEX WITH A LIMITED AREA MODEL

A limited area model has been applied to study the impact of satellite-derived relative humidity data on the predic- tion of onset vortex of monsoon 1979.The results show that inclusion of satellite-derived relative humidity data im- proved the prediction of track of the cyclonic circulation and the rainfall rates in the region of the vortex.

BMC LIMITED AREA MODEL GENERAL DESCRIPTION AND OPERATIONAL RESULTS

The limited area 5-level primitive equation model,as the first operational precipitation forecast model in China,has been run at Beijing (National) Meteorological Center (BMC) for more than four years.The opera- tional results show that this model gives continuous services,and the forecast skill is satisfied for the forecast of some weather situations,such as extratropical cyclone,front and the precipitation associated with them. The forecast guides are widely used at the local weather services now.

An Assessment of a Nowcast/Forecast System for the Straits of Florida/Florida Current Regime

The Florida Current （FC） largely fills the Straits of Florida and is variable on a broad spectrum of time and space scales. Some portions of the variability are due to variable forcing by tides, winds, heating/cooling, and throughflow; other portions are due to intrinsic instabilities of the FC. To predict, as well as to better understand this complex regime, a nowcast/forecast system （East Florida Shelf Information System （EFSIS）） has been implemented and assessed （http：//efsis. rsmas. miami. edu）. EFSIS is based on an implementation of the Princeton Ocean Model （POM） with mesoscale-admitting resolution on a curvilinear grid. It is forced by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system （called Eta） run operationally by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）, eight tidal constituents from a global tidal model, and lateral boundary conditions from an operational global ocean prediction model, i.e., the Navy Coastal Ocean Model （NCOM）. Real-time observations of coastal sea level, coastal sea surface temperature, coastal HF radar-derived surface current maps, and FC volume transport are used to verify and validate EFSIS. EFSIS is part of an evolving strategy for real-time predictive coastal ocean modeling methodology, and for fostering the understanding of the variability of the regime on several time and space scales. Here, some of the verification and validation results are provided, as well as diagnostic analyses of dynamical processes. The central point is that an example is provided of a ＇scientific revolution＇ in progress that combines real-time observations and numerical circulation models to yield a credible sequence of synoptic views of coastal ocean circulation for the first time.

THE LIMITED AREA ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SYSTEM AND ITS OPERATIONAL APPLICATION

The limited area analysis and forecast system(LAFS)was developed and has been put into operational use at National Meteorological Center since January 1991.This system can be regarded as a branch system attached to the global assimilation and medium-range forecast system which is based on a spectral model T42L9.The main advancements as an upgrade operational system are as follows:the use of a regional fine mesh optimum interpolation(OI)analysis scheme:the realiza- tion of the nonlinear normal mode initialization for the regional model:the development of a 15L- spherical grid primitive equation model(with real topography and enstrophy conservation)and its nesting forecast with the spectral model T42L9.

ON THE SENSITIVITY OF PRECIPITATION FORECASTS TO THE MOIST PHYSICS AND THE HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION OF NUMERICAL MODEL

The impacts of the enhanced model's moist physics and horizontal resolution upon the QPFs (quantitative precipitation forecasts)are investigated by applying the HIRLAM(high resolution limited area model)to the summer heavy-rain cases in China.The performance of the control run, for which a 0.5°×0.5°grid spacing and a traditional“grid-box supersaturation removal+Kuo type convective paramerization”are used as the moist physics,is compared with that of the sensitivity runs with an enhanced model's moist physics(Sundqvist scheme)and an increased horizontal resolution(0.25°×0.25°),respectively.The results show: (1)The enhanced moist physics scheme(Sundqvist scheme),by introducing the cloud water content as an additional prognostic variable and taking into account briefly of the microphysics involved in the cloud-rain conversion,does bring improvements in the model's QPFs.Although the deteriorated QPFs also occur occasionally,the improvements are found in the majority of the cases,indicating the great potential for the improvement of QPFs by enhancing the model's moist physics. (2)By increasing the model's horizontal resolution from 0.5°×0.5°,which is already quite high compared with that of the conventional atmospheric soundings,to 0.25°×0.25°without the simultaneous enhancement in model physics and objective analysis,the improvements in QPFs are very limited.With higher resolution,although slight amelioration in locating the rainfall centers and in resolving some finer structures of precipitation pattern are made,the number of the mis- predicted fine structures in rainfall field increases with the enhanced model resolution as well.