An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited i...An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways.展开更多
Over the past few decades, urban freeway congestion has been highly recognized as a serious and worsening traffic problem in the world. To relieve freeway congestion, several active traffic and demand management （ATD...Over the past few decades, urban freeway congestion has been highly recognized as a serious and worsening traffic problem in the world. To relieve freeway congestion, several active traffic and demand management （ATDM） methods have been developed. Among them, variable speed limit （VSL） aims at regulating freeway mainline flow upstream to meet existing capacity and to harmonize vehicle speed. However, congestion may still be inevitable even with VSL implemented due to extremely high demand in actual practice. This study modified an existing VSL strategy by adding a new local constraint to suggest an achievable speed limit during the control period. As a queue is a product of the congestion phenomenon in freeway, the incentives of a queue build-up in the applied coordinated VSL control situation were analyzed. Considering a congestion occurrence （a queue build-up） characterized by a sudden and sharp speed drop, speed contours were utilized to demonstrate the congestion distribution over a whole freeway network in various sce- narios. Finally, congestion distributions found in both VSL control and non-VS control situations for various scenarios were investigated to explore the impact of the applied coordinated VSL control on the congestion distribution. An authentic stretch of V^hitemud Drive （I~~ID）, an urban freeway corridor in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, was employed to implement this modified coordinated VSL control strategy; and a calibrated micro-simu- lation VISSIM model （model functions） was applied as the substitute of the real-world traffic system to test the above mentioned performance. The exploration task in this study can lay the groundwork for future research on how to improve the presented VSL control strategy for achieving the congestion mitigation effect on freeway.展开更多
基金Project(51606225) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2016JJ2144) supported by Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(502221703) supported by Graduate Independent Explorative Innovation Foundation of Central South University,China
文摘An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways.
基金supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council(NSERC) of Canada, City of Edmonton,and Transport Canadasupported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51208052,51308058)the Science and Technology Research and Development Program of Shaanxi Province,China(No.2013K13-04-02)
文摘Over the past few decades, urban freeway congestion has been highly recognized as a serious and worsening traffic problem in the world. To relieve freeway congestion, several active traffic and demand management （ATDM） methods have been developed. Among them, variable speed limit （VSL） aims at regulating freeway mainline flow upstream to meet existing capacity and to harmonize vehicle speed. However, congestion may still be inevitable even with VSL implemented due to extremely high demand in actual practice. This study modified an existing VSL strategy by adding a new local constraint to suggest an achievable speed limit during the control period. As a queue is a product of the congestion phenomenon in freeway, the incentives of a queue build-up in the applied coordinated VSL control situation were analyzed. Considering a congestion occurrence （a queue build-up） characterized by a sudden and sharp speed drop, speed contours were utilized to demonstrate the congestion distribution over a whole freeway network in various sce- narios. Finally, congestion distributions found in both VSL control and non-VS control situations for various scenarios were investigated to explore the impact of the applied coordinated VSL control on the congestion distribution. An authentic stretch of V^hitemud Drive （I~~ID）, an urban freeway corridor in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, was employed to implement this modified coordinated VSL control strategy; and a calibrated micro-simu- lation VISSIM model （model functions） was applied as the substitute of the real-world traffic system to test the above mentioned performance. The exploration task in this study can lay the groundwork for future research on how to improve the presented VSL control strategy for achieving the congestion mitigation effect on freeway.
