Comparison of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models in determining moisture recycling ratio

Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,which affects the accuracy of local moisture recycling.In this study,a total of 18 stations from four typical areas in China were selected to compare the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models and to determine local moisture recycling ratio.Among the three vapor sources including advection,transpiration,and surface evaporation,the advection vapor usually played a dominant role,and the contribution of surface evaporation was less than that of transpiration.When the abnormal values were ignored,the arithmetic averages of differences between isotope-based linear and the Bayesian mixing models were 0.9%for transpiration,0.2%for surface evaporation,and–1.1%for advection,respectively,and the medians were 0.5%,0.2%,and–0.8%,respectively.The importance of transpiration was slightly less for most cases when the Bayesian mixing model was applied,and the contribution of advection was relatively larger.The Bayesian mixing model was found to perform better in determining an efficient solution since linear model sometimes resulted in negative contribution ratios.Sensitivity test with two isotope scenarios indicated that the Bayesian model had a relatively low sensitivity to the changes in isotope input,and it was important to accurately estimate the isotopes in precipitation vapor.Generally,the Bayesian mixing model should be recommended instead of a linear model.The findings are useful for understanding the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models under various climate backgrounds.

Adaptive Random Effects/Coefficients Modeling

Adaptive fractional polynomial modeling of general correlated outcomes is formulated to address nonlinearity in means, variances/dispersions, and correlations. Means and variances/dispersions are modeled using generalized linear models in fixed effects/coefficients. Correlations are modeled using random effects/coefficients. Nonlinearity is addressed using power transforms of primary (untransformed) predictors. Parameter estimation is based on extended linear mixed modeling generalizing both generalized estimating equations and linear mixed modeling. Models are evaluated using likelihood cross-validation (LCV) scores and are generated adaptively using a heuristic search controlled by LCV scores. Cases covered include linear, Poisson, logistic, exponential, and discrete regression of correlated continuous, count/rate, dichotomous, positive continuous, and discrete numeric outcomes treated as normally, Poisson, Bernoulli, exponentially, and discrete numerically distributed, respectively. Example analyses are also generated for these five cases to compare adaptive random effects/coefficients modeling of correlated outcomes to previously developed adaptive modeling based on directly specified covariance structures. Adaptive random effects/coefficients modeling substantially outperforms direct covariance modeling in the linear, exponential, and discrete regression example analyses. It generates equivalent results in the logistic regression example analyses and it is substantially outperformed in the Poisson regression case. Random effects/coefficients modeling of correlated outcomes can provide substantial improvements in model selection compared to directly specified covariance modeling. However, directly specified covariance modeling can generate competitive or substantially better results in some cases while usually requiring less computation time.

Nonlinear free vibration of piezoelectric semiconductor doubly-curved shells based on nonlinear drift-diffusion model

In this paper, the nonlinear free vibration behaviors of the piezoelectric semiconductor(PS) doubly-curved shell resting on the Pasternak foundation are studied within the framework of the nonlinear drift-diffusion(NLDD) model and the first-order shear deformation theory. The nonlinear constitutive relations are presented, and the strain energy, kinetic energy, and virtual work of the PS doubly-curved shell are derived.Based on Hamilton's principle as well as the condition of charge continuity, the nonlinear governing equations are achieved, and then these equations are solved by means of an efficient iteration method. Several numerical examples are given to show the effect of the nonlinear drift current, elastic foundation parameters as well as geometric parameters on the nonlinear vibration frequency, and the damping characteristic of the PS doublycurved shell. The main innovations of the manuscript are that the difference between the linearized drift-diffusion(LDD) model and the NLDD model is revealed, and an effective method is proposed to select a proper initial electron concentration for the LDD model.

Contact Analysis and Modeling of Standing Wave Linear Ultrasonic Motor

A contact model for describing the contact mechanics between the stator and slider of the standing wave linear ultrasonic motor was presented. The proposed model starts from the assumption that the vibration characteristics of the stator is not affected by the contact process. A modified friction models was used to analyze the contact problems. Firstly, the dynamic normal contact force, interface friction force, and steady-state characteristics were analyzed. Secondly, the influences of the contact layer material, the dynamic characteristics of the stator, and the pre-load on motor performance were simulated. Finally, to validate the contact model, a linear ultrasonic motor based on in-plane modes was used as an example. The corresponding results show that a set of simulation of motor performances based on the proposed contact mechanism is in good agreement with experimental results. This model is helpful to understanding the operation principle of the standing wave linear motor and thus contributes to the design of these types of motor.

Federated Learning Model for Auto Insurance Rate Setting Based on Tweedie Distribution

In the assessment of car insurance claims,the claim rate for car insurance presents a highly skewed probability distribution,which is typically modeled using Tweedie distribution.The traditional approach to obtaining the Tweedie regression model involves training on a centralized dataset,when the data is provided by multiple parties,training a privacy-preserving Tweedie regression model without exchanging raw data becomes a challenge.To address this issue,this study introduces a novel vertical federated learning-based Tweedie regression algorithm for multi-party auto insurance rate setting in data silos.The algorithm can keep sensitive data locally and uses privacy-preserving techniques to achieve intersection operations between the two parties holding the data.After determining which entities are shared,the participants train the model locally using the shared entity data to obtain the local generalized linear model intermediate parameters.The homomorphic encryption algorithms are introduced to interact with and update the model intermediate parameters to collaboratively complete the joint training of the car insurance rate-setting model.Performance tests on two publicly available datasets show that the proposed federated Tweedie regression algorithm can effectively generate Tweedie regression models that leverage the value of data fromboth partieswithout exchanging data.The assessment results of the scheme approach those of the Tweedie regressionmodel learned fromcentralized data,and outperformthe Tweedie regressionmodel learned independently by a single party.

Extend ethylene aromatization single-event kinetic modeling with physical and chemical descriptor based on ZSM-5 catalyst

The ethylene aromatization is critical for the methanol to aromatics and light alkane dehydroaromatization process.The single-event microkinetic(SEMK)model combining the linear free energy theory and solid acid distribution concept were established and extend for the ethylene aromatization process,which can reduce the kinetic parameters and simplify the reaction network by comparison with the SEMK model including subtype elementary steps based on the type of carbenium ions.Further introducing deactivation parametersφinto the model and applying the linear free energy model to the deactivation experimental data,the obtained deactivation parametersφindicate that the carbon deposition precursors have the greatest impact on reducing the reaction rate of single-molecular reactions and the smallest impact on the hydrogen transfer reaction.Meanwhile,according to the change of reaction enthalpy,effect of carbenium ion structure on methylation,ethylation,cyclization and endo-βscission was investigated by introducing linear free energy concept into the SEMK model.The effect of different acid strengths on elementary steps was investigated based on the acid strength distribution model,it was found that the methylation and oligomerization reactions,the ali-βscission reaction,endo-βscission reaction and the cyclization reaction were more sensitive to strong acidity sites.The physisorption and chemisorption heat are separated from the protonation heat in the linear free energy kinetic model and the acid strength distribution kinetic model,and the absolute values of the obtained physisorption and chemisorption heat increase with the carbon number of carbenium ions.Furthermore,the parameters of the acid strength distribution kinetic model were applied to propane dehydroaromatization on H-ZSM-5 and the ethane dehydroaromatization on Zn/ZSM-5 to confirm the independence of parameters in the SEMK model with the similar reaction network.

Integrating Multiple Linear Regression and Infectious Disease Models for Predicting Information Dissemination in Social Networks

Social network is the mainstream medium of current information dissemination,and it is particularly important to accurately predict its propagation law.In this paper,we introduce a social network propagation model integrating multiple linear regression and infectious disease model.Firstly,we proposed the features that affect social network communication from three dimensions.Then,we predicted the node influence via multiple linear regression.Lastly,we used the node influence as the state transition of the infectious disease model to predict the trend of information dissemination in social networks.The experimental results on a real social network dataset showed that the prediction results of the model are consistent with the actual information dissemination trends.

Algorithms and statistical analysis for linear structured weighted total least squares problem

Weighted total least squares(WTLS)have been regarded as the standard tool for the errors-in-variables(EIV)model in which all the elements in the observation vector and the coefficient matrix are contaminated with random errors.However,in many geodetic applications,some elements are error-free and some random observations appear repeatedly in different positions in the augmented coefficient matrix.It is called the linear structured EIV(LSEIV)model.Two kinds of methods are proposed for the LSEIV model from functional and stochastic modifications.On the one hand,the functional part of the LSEIV model is modified into the errors-in-observations(EIO)model.On the other hand,the stochastic model is modified by applying the Moore-Penrose inverse of the cofactor matrix.The algorithms are derived through the Lagrange multipliers method and linear approximation.The estimation principles and iterative formula of the parameters are proven to be consistent.The first-order approximate variance-covariance matrix(VCM)of the parameters is also derived.A numerical example is given to compare the performances of our proposed three algorithms with the STLS approach.Afterwards,the least squares(LS),total least squares(TLS)and linear structured weighted total least squares(LSWTLS)solutions are compared and the accuracy evaluation formula is proven to be feasible and effective.Finally,the LSWTLS is applied to the field of deformation analysis,which yields a better result than the traditional LS and TLS estimations.

MODELING OF NONLINEAR SYSTEMS BY MULTIPLE LINEARIZED MODELS

In order to design linear controller for nonlinear systems,a simple but efficient method of modeling a nonlinear system was proposed by means of multiple linearized models at different operating points in the entire range of the expected changes of the operating points.The original nonlinear system was described by linear combination of these multiple linearized models,with the linear combination parameters being identified on line based on least squares method.Model Predictive Control,an optimization based technique,was used to design the linear controller.A sufficient condition for ensuring the existence of a linear controller for the original nonlinear system was also given.Good performance indicated by two simulated examples confirms the usefulness of the proposed method.

Predicting carbon storage of mixed broadleaf forests based on the finite mixture model incorporating stand factors,site quality,and aridity index

The diameter distribution function(DDF)is a crucial tool for accurately predicting stand carbon storage(CS).The current key issue,however,is how to construct a high-precision DDF based on stand factors,site quality,and aridity index to predict stand CS in multi-species mixed forests with complex structures.This study used data from70 survey plots for mixed broadleaf Populus davidiana and Betula platyphylla forests in the Mulan Rangeland State Forest,Hebei Province,China,to construct the DDF based on maximum likelihood estimation and finite mixture model(FMM).Ordinary least squares(OLS),linear seemingly unrelated regression(LSUR),and back propagation neural network(BPNN)were used to investigate the influences of stand factors,site quality,and aridity index on the shape and scale parameters of DDF and predicted stand CS of mixed broadleaf forests.The results showed that FMM accurately described the stand-level diameter distribution of the mixed P.davidiana and B.platyphylla forests;whereas the Weibull function constructed by MLE was more accurate in describing species-level diameter distribution.The combined variable of quadratic mean diameter(Dq),stand basal area(BA),and site quality improved the accuracy of the shape parameter models of FMM;the combined variable of Dq,BA,and De Martonne aridity index improved the accuracy of the scale parameter models.Compared to OLS and LSUR,the BPNN had higher accuracy in the re-parameterization process of FMM.OLS,LSUR,and BPNN overestimated the CS of P.davidiana but underestimated the CS of B.platyphylla in the large diameter classes(DBH≥18 cm).BPNN accurately estimated stand-and species-level CS,but it was more suitable for estimating stand-level CS compared to species-level CS,thereby providing a scientific basis for the optimization of stand structure and assessment of carbon sequestration capacity in mixed broadleaf forests.

Heavy metals adsorption by banana peels micro-powder: Equilibrium modeling by non-linear models

In this study the copper and lead adsorption efficiency onto banana peels powder was investigated. The agroindustrial waste recovery represents one of the Circular Economy pillars. In the view of the synthesis of an environmentally friendly adsorbent material, the powder was used without any preliminary chemical or thermal activation, but only after simple washing, drying and grinding. The bio-adsorbent was characterized by the FTIR technique and tested in batch mode on synthetic aqueous solutions containing Pb and Cu in the range 10–90 mg·L^(-1). A selection of two(Langmuir, Freundlich) and three(Sips, Redlich–Peterson, Koble–Corrigan) parameter isotherm models was chosen to fit adsorption equilibrium data by non-linear regression procedure. The best fit isotherm model was selected relying on the error function with the lowest average percentage error(APE) value, among those characterized by the highest R^2 values. As expected, the three-parameter models are found to better represent both metals bio-adsorption, with APE and R^2 values always lower and higher, respectively, than the corresponding values obtained for the two-parameter models.

Numerical modeling of linear friction welding： a literature review

Linear friction welding （LFW） is a solid state process for joining metals together. While this process was developed originaUy for titanium alloys （e. g. blisks ） , over the past decade a number of materials were found to be weldable with LFW. In this review, the current status of understanding and development of LFW are presented. Particular emphasis has been given to the modeling of the LFW process. Finally, opportunities for further research and development of LFW are identified.

Estimation of Daily Global Solar Radiation with Different Sunshine-Based Models for Some Burundian Stations

Sunshine duration (S) based empirical equations have been employed in this study to estimate the daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface (G) for six meteorological stations in Burundi. Those equations include the Ångström-Prescott linear model and four amongst its derivatives, i.e. logarithmic, exponential, power and quadratic functions. Monthly mean values of daily global solar radiation and sunshine duration data for a period of 20 to 23 years, from the Geographical Institute of Burundi (IGEBU), have been used. For any of the six stations, ten single or double linear regressions have been developed from the above-said five functions, to relate in terms of monthly mean values, the daily clearness index () to each of the next two kinds of relative sunshine duration (RSD): and . In those ratios, G0, S0 and stand for the extraterrestrial daily solar radiation on a horizontal surface, the day length and the modified day length taking into account the natural site’s horizon, respectively. According to the calculated mean values of the clearness index and the RSD, each station experiences a high number of fairly clear (or partially cloudy) days. Estimated values of the dependent variable (y) in each developed linear regression, have been compared to measured values in terms of the coefficients of correlation (R) and of determination (R2), the mean bias error (MBE), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the t-statistics. Mean values of these statistical indicators have been used to rank, according to decreasing performance level, firstly the ten developed equations per station on account of the overall six stations, secondly the six stations on account of the overall ten equations. Nevertheless, the obtained values of those indicators lay in the next ranges for all the developed sixty equations:;;;, with . These results lead to assert that any of the sixty developed linear regressions (and thus equations in terms of and ), fits very adequately measured data, and should be used to estimate monthly average daily global solar radiation with sunshine duration for the relevant station. It is also found that using as RSD, is slightly more advantageous than using for estimating the monthly average daily clearness index, . Moreover, values of statistical indicators of this study match adequately data from other works on the same kinds of empirical equations.

The Effectiveness of the Havriliak-Negami Model in Predicting the Master Curves of the Asphalt Blends with SBS Triblock Copolymer and Organic-Montmorillonite at Different Temperatures and Frequencies

The dynamic viscoelastic properties of asphalt AC-20 and its composites with Organic-Montmorillonite clay (OMMt) and SBS were modeled using the empirical Havriliak-Negami (HN) model, based on linear viscoelastic theory (LVE). The HN parameters, α, β, G0, G∞and τHN were determined by solving the HN equation across various temperatures and frequencies. The HN model successfully predicted the rheological behavior of the asphalt and its blends within the temperature range of 25˚C - 40˚C. However, deviations occurred between 40˚C - 75˚C, where the glass transition temperature Tg of the asphalt components and the SBS polymer are located, rendering the HN model ineffective for predicting the dynamic viscoelastic properties of composites containing OMMt under these conditions. Yet, the prediction error of the HN model dropped to 2.28% - 2.81% for asphalt and its mixtures at 100˚C, a temperature exceeding the Tg values of both polymer and asphalt, where the mixtures exhibited a liquid-like behavior. The exponent α and the relaxation time increased with temperature across all systems. Incorporating OMMt clay into the asphalt blends significantly enhanced the relaxation dynamics of the resulting composites.

Multiple linear system techniques for 3D finite element method modeling of direct current resistivity

The strategies that minimize the overall solution time of multiple linear systems in 3D finite element method (FEM) modeling of direct current (DC) resistivity were discussed. A global stiff matrix is assembled and stored in two parts separately. One part is associated with the volume integral and the other is associated with the subsurface boundary integral. The equivalent multiple linear systems with closer right-hand sides than the original systems were constructed. A recycling Krylov subspace technique was employed to solve the multiple linear systems. The solution of the seed system was used as an initial guess for the subsequent systems. The results of two numerical experiments show that the improved algorithm reduces the iterations and CPU time by almost 50%, compared with the classical preconditioned conjugate gradient method.

A Study of EM Algorithm as an Imputation Method: A Model-Based Simulation Study with Application to a Synthetic Compositional Data

Compositional data, such as relative information, is a crucial aspect of machine learning and other related fields. It is typically recorded as closed data or sums to a constant, like 100%. The statistical linear model is the most used technique for identifying hidden relationships between underlying random variables of interest. However, data quality is a significant challenge in machine learning, especially when missing data is present. The linear regression model is a commonly used statistical modeling technique used in various applications to find relationships between variables of interest. When estimating linear regression parameters which are useful for things like future prediction and partial effects analysis of independent variables, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is the method of choice. However, many datasets contain missing observations, which can lead to costly and time-consuming data recovery. To address this issue, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm has been suggested as a solution for situations including missing data. The EM algorithm repeatedly finds the best estimates of parameters in statistical models that depend on variables or data that have not been observed. This is called maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori (MAP). Using the present estimate as input, the expectation (E) step constructs a log-likelihood function. Finding the parameters that maximize the anticipated log-likelihood, as determined in the E step, is the job of the maximization (M) phase. This study looked at how well the EM algorithm worked on a made-up compositional dataset with missing observations. It used both the robust least square version and ordinary least square regression techniques. The efficacy of the EM algorithm was compared with two alternative imputation techniques, k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) and mean imputation (), in terms of Aitchison distances and covariance.

Modeling and Stability Analysis for Non-linear Network Control System Based on T-S Fuzzy Model

Based on the T-S fuzzy model,this paper presents a new model of non-linear network control system with stochastic transfer delay.Sufficient criterion is proposed to guarantee globally asymptotically stability of this two-levels T-S fuzzy model.Also a T-S fuzzy observer of NCS is designed base on this two-levels T-S fuzzy model.All these results present a new approach for networked control system analysis and design.

Computational analysis of linear friction welding process and micromechanical modeling of deformation behavior for medium carbon steel

Finite element simulation of linear friction welding(LFW) medium carbon steel was carried out using the ABAQUS software. A two-dimensional(2D) coupled thermo-mechanical model was established. First, the temperature fields of medium carbon steel during LFW process were investigated. And then, the Mises stress and the 1st, 2nd and 3rd principal stresses fields' evolution of the steel during LFW process were studied. The deformation behavior of LFW carbon steel was analyzed by using micromechanics model based on ABAQUS with Python code. The Lode parameter was expressed using the Mohr stress circle and it was investigated in detail.

Local Modeling模型及其在黄河上游月径流预测中的应用

基于黄河上游有关水文气象台站的降水径流资料,将LocalModeling方法应用于龙羊峡水库月入库径流预报的中长期水文预报模型.模型的检验和应用结果表明,该方法有着稳健性好、数学物理意义明确、对数据系列要求不高和容易操作等优点,在非汛期各月的径流预测中具有较高的准确性,并且在考虑了降水的影响后,对汛期径流的计算精度亦基本符合水文情报预报规范和实际应用的要求.该模型在黄河上游水量预报和调度工作中具有良好的应用前景.