Comparison of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models in determining moisture recycling ratio

Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,which affects the accuracy of local moisture recycling.In this study,a total of 18 stations from four typical areas in China were selected to compare the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models and to determine local moisture recycling ratio.Among the three vapor sources including advection,transpiration,and surface evaporation,the advection vapor usually played a dominant role,and the contribution of surface evaporation was less than that of transpiration.When the abnormal values were ignored,the arithmetic averages of differences between isotope-based linear and the Bayesian mixing models were 0.9%for transpiration,0.2%for surface evaporation,and–1.1%for advection,respectively,and the medians were 0.5%,0.2%,and–0.8%,respectively.The importance of transpiration was slightly less for most cases when the Bayesian mixing model was applied,and the contribution of advection was relatively larger.The Bayesian mixing model was found to perform better in determining an efficient solution since linear model sometimes resulted in negative contribution ratios.Sensitivity test with two isotope scenarios indicated that the Bayesian model had a relatively low sensitivity to the changes in isotope input,and it was important to accurately estimate the isotopes in precipitation vapor.Generally,the Bayesian mixing model should be recommended instead of a linear model.The findings are useful for understanding the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models under various climate backgrounds.

Adaptive Random Effects/Coefficients Modeling

Adaptive fractional polynomial modeling of general correlated outcomes is formulated to address nonlinearity in means, variances/dispersions, and correlations. Means and variances/dispersions are modeled using generalized linear models in fixed effects/coefficients. Correlations are modeled using random effects/coefficients. Nonlinearity is addressed using power transforms of primary (untransformed) predictors. Parameter estimation is based on extended linear mixed modeling generalizing both generalized estimating equations and linear mixed modeling. Models are evaluated using likelihood cross-validation (LCV) scores and are generated adaptively using a heuristic search controlled by LCV scores. Cases covered include linear, Poisson, logistic, exponential, and discrete regression of correlated continuous, count/rate, dichotomous, positive continuous, and discrete numeric outcomes treated as normally, Poisson, Bernoulli, exponentially, and discrete numerically distributed, respectively. Example analyses are also generated for these five cases to compare adaptive random effects/coefficients modeling of correlated outcomes to previously developed adaptive modeling based on directly specified covariance structures. Adaptive random effects/coefficients modeling substantially outperforms direct covariance modeling in the linear, exponential, and discrete regression example analyses. It generates equivalent results in the logistic regression example analyses and it is substantially outperformed in the Poisson regression case. Random effects/coefficients modeling of correlated outcomes can provide substantial improvements in model selection compared to directly specified covariance modeling. However, directly specified covariance modeling can generate competitive or substantially better results in some cases while usually requiring less computation time.

Nonlinear Mixed-Effects Models for Repairable Systems Reliability

Mixed-effects models,also called random-effects models,are a regression type of analysis which enables the analyst to not only describe the trend over time within each subject,but also to describe the variation among different subjects.Nonlinear mixed-effects models provide a powerful and flexible tool for handling the unbalanced count data.In this paper,nonlinear mixed-effects models are used to analyze the failure data from a repairable system with multiple copies.By using this type of models,statistical inferences about the population and all copies can be made when accounting for copy-to-copy variance.Results of fitting nonlinear mixed-effects models to nine failure-data sets show that the nonlinear mixed-effects models provide a useful tool for analyzing the failure data from multi-copy repairable systems.

Nonlinear free vibration of piezoelectric semiconductor doubly-curved shells based on nonlinear drift-diffusion model

In this paper, the nonlinear free vibration behaviors of the piezoelectric semiconductor(PS) doubly-curved shell resting on the Pasternak foundation are studied within the framework of the nonlinear drift-diffusion(NLDD) model and the first-order shear deformation theory. The nonlinear constitutive relations are presented, and the strain energy, kinetic energy, and virtual work of the PS doubly-curved shell are derived.Based on Hamilton's principle as well as the condition of charge continuity, the nonlinear governing equations are achieved, and then these equations are solved by means of an efficient iteration method. Several numerical examples are given to show the effect of the nonlinear drift current, elastic foundation parameters as well as geometric parameters on the nonlinear vibration frequency, and the damping characteristic of the PS doublycurved shell. The main innovations of the manuscript are that the difference between the linearized drift-diffusion(LDD) model and the NLDD model is revealed, and an effective method is proposed to select a proper initial electron concentration for the LDD model.

Contact Analysis and Modeling of Standing Wave Linear Ultrasonic Motor

A contact model for describing the contact mechanics between the stator and slider of the standing wave linear ultrasonic motor was presented. The proposed model starts from the assumption that the vibration characteristics of the stator is not affected by the contact process. A modified friction models was used to analyze the contact problems. Firstly, the dynamic normal contact force, interface friction force, and steady-state characteristics were analyzed. Secondly, the influences of the contact layer material, the dynamic characteristics of the stator, and the pre-load on motor performance were simulated. Finally, to validate the contact model, a linear ultrasonic motor based on in-plane modes was used as an example. The corresponding results show that a set of simulation of motor performances based on the proposed contact mechanism is in good agreement with experimental results. This model is helpful to understanding the operation principle of the standing wave linear motor and thus contributes to the design of these types of motor.

Federated Learning Model for Auto Insurance Rate Setting Based on Tweedie Distribution

In the assessment of car insurance claims,the claim rate for car insurance presents a highly skewed probability distribution,which is typically modeled using Tweedie distribution.The traditional approach to obtaining the Tweedie regression model involves training on a centralized dataset,when the data is provided by multiple parties,training a privacy-preserving Tweedie regression model without exchanging raw data becomes a challenge.To address this issue,this study introduces a novel vertical federated learning-based Tweedie regression algorithm for multi-party auto insurance rate setting in data silos.The algorithm can keep sensitive data locally and uses privacy-preserving techniques to achieve intersection operations between the two parties holding the data.After determining which entities are shared,the participants train the model locally using the shared entity data to obtain the local generalized linear model intermediate parameters.The homomorphic encryption algorithms are introduced to interact with and update the model intermediate parameters to collaboratively complete the joint training of the car insurance rate-setting model.Performance tests on two publicly available datasets show that the proposed federated Tweedie regression algorithm can effectively generate Tweedie regression models that leverage the value of data fromboth partieswithout exchanging data.The assessment results of the scheme approach those of the Tweedie regressionmodel learned fromcentralized data,and outperformthe Tweedie regressionmodel learned independently by a single party.

Extend ethylene aromatization single-event kinetic modeling with physical and chemical descriptor based on ZSM-5 catalyst

The ethylene aromatization is critical for the methanol to aromatics and light alkane dehydroaromatization process.The single-event microkinetic(SEMK)model combining the linear free energy theory and solid acid distribution concept were established and extend for the ethylene aromatization process,which can reduce the kinetic parameters and simplify the reaction network by comparison with the SEMK model including subtype elementary steps based on the type of carbenium ions.Further introducing deactivation parametersφinto the model and applying the linear free energy model to the deactivation experimental data,the obtained deactivation parametersφindicate that the carbon deposition precursors have the greatest impact on reducing the reaction rate of single-molecular reactions and the smallest impact on the hydrogen transfer reaction.Meanwhile,according to the change of reaction enthalpy,effect of carbenium ion structure on methylation,ethylation,cyclization and endo-βscission was investigated by introducing linear free energy concept into the SEMK model.The effect of different acid strengths on elementary steps was investigated based on the acid strength distribution model,it was found that the methylation and oligomerization reactions,the ali-βscission reaction,endo-βscission reaction and the cyclization reaction were more sensitive to strong acidity sites.The physisorption and chemisorption heat are separated from the protonation heat in the linear free energy kinetic model and the acid strength distribution kinetic model,and the absolute values of the obtained physisorption and chemisorption heat increase with the carbon number of carbenium ions.Furthermore,the parameters of the acid strength distribution kinetic model were applied to propane dehydroaromatization on H-ZSM-5 and the ethane dehydroaromatization on Zn/ZSM-5 to confirm the independence of parameters in the SEMK model with the similar reaction network.

Multiple linear system techniques for 3D finite element method modeling of direct current resistivity

The strategies that minimize the overall solution time of multiple linear systems in 3D finite element method (FEM) modeling of direct current (DC) resistivity were discussed. A global stiff matrix is assembled and stored in two parts separately. One part is associated with the volume integral and the other is associated with the subsurface boundary integral. The equivalent multiple linear systems with closer right-hand sides than the original systems were constructed. A recycling Krylov subspace technique was employed to solve the multiple linear systems. The solution of the seed system was used as an initial guess for the subsequent systems. The results of two numerical experiments show that the improved algorithm reduces the iterations and CPU time by almost 50%, compared with the classical preconditioned conjugate gradient method.

Modeling and linearizing broad-band power amplifier based on real and complex-valued hybrid time-delay neural network

A new real and complex-valued hybrid time-delay neural network(TDNN)is proposed for modeling and linearizing the broad-band power amplifier(BPA).The neural network includes the generalized memory effect of input signals,complex-valued input signals and the fractional order of a complex-valued input signal module,and,thus,the modeling accuracy is improved significantly.A comparative study of the normalized mean square error(NMSE)of the real and complex-valued hybrid TDNN for different spread constants,memory depths,node numbers,and order numbers is studied so as to establish an optimal TDNN as an effective baseband model,suitable for modeling strong nonlinearity of the BPA.A 51-dBm BPA with a 25-MHz bandwidth mixed test signal is used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.Compared with the memory polynomial(MP)model and the real-valued TDNN,the real and complex-valued hybrid TDNN is highly effective,leading to an improvement of 5 dB in the NMSE.In addition,the real and complex-valued hybrid TDNN has an improvement of 0.6 dB over the generalized MP model in the NMSE.Also,it has better numerical stability.Moreover,the proposed TDNN presents a significant improvement over the real-valued TDNN and the MP models in suppressing out-of-band spectral regrowth.

Analysis of the inflection points of height-diameter models

The inflection point is an important feature of sigmoidal height-diameter(H-D)models.It is often cited as one of the properties favoring sigmoidal model forms.However,there are very few studies analyzing the inflection points of H-D models.The goals of this study were to theoretically and empirically examine the behaviors of inflection points of six common H-D models with a regional dataset.The six models were the Wykoff(WYK),Schumacher(SCH),Curtis(CUR),HossfeldⅣ(HOS),von Bertalanffy-Richards(VBR),and Gompertz(GPZ)models.The models were first fitted in their base forms with tree species as random effects and were then expanded to include functional traits and spatial distribution.The distributions of the estimated inflection points were similar between the two-parameter models WYK,SCH,and CUR,but were different between the threeparameter models HOS,VBR,and GPZ.GPZ produced some of the largest inflection points.HOS and VBR produced concave H-D curves without inflection points for 12.7%and 39.7%of the tree species.Evergreen species or decreasing shade tolerance resulted in larger inflection points.The trends in the estimated inflection points of HOS and VBR were entirely opposite across the landscape.Furthermore,HOS could produce concave H-D curves for portions of the landscape.Based on the studied behaviors,the choice between two-parameter models may not matter.We recommend comparing seve ral three-parameter model forms for consistency in estimated inflection points before deciding on one.Believing sigmoidal models to have inflection points does not necessarily mean that they will produce fitted curves with one.Our study highlights the need to integrate analysis of inflection points into modeling H-D relationships.

Application of the theory of linear algebra on mathematical modeling practice

The application level of mathematics in each science discipline signs the level of development of this science. With the advancement of science and technology, especially the rapid development of computer technology, mathematics has permeated from natural scientific technology to agricultural construction, from economic activities to all areas of social life. Generally, when the actual problem requires us to provide quantitative results of analysis, forecasting, decision making, control and other aspects for real object under study, we are often inseparable from the application of mathematics. Mathematical modeling is the key to this process, whose purpose is to make mathematics applied to social and social services, and using mathematics to solve practical problems is through mathematical models. When using mathematical methods to solve some practical problems, we usually first transfer practical problems into mathematical language, and then abstract them into a mathematical model.

Integrating Multiple Linear Regression and Infectious Disease Models for Predicting Information Dissemination in Social Networks

Social network is the mainstream medium of current information dissemination,and it is particularly important to accurately predict its propagation law.In this paper,we introduce a social network propagation model integrating multiple linear regression and infectious disease model.Firstly,we proposed the features that affect social network communication from three dimensions.Then,we predicted the node influence via multiple linear regression.Lastly,we used the node influence as the state transition of the infectious disease model to predict the trend of information dissemination in social networks.The experimental results on a real social network dataset showed that the prediction results of the model are consistent with the actual information dissemination trends.

Algorithms and statistical analysis for linear structured weighted total least squares problem

Weighted total least squares(WTLS)have been regarded as the standard tool for the errors-in-variables(EIV)model in which all the elements in the observation vector and the coefficient matrix are contaminated with random errors.However,in many geodetic applications,some elements are error-free and some random observations appear repeatedly in different positions in the augmented coefficient matrix.It is called the linear structured EIV(LSEIV)model.Two kinds of methods are proposed for the LSEIV model from functional and stochastic modifications.On the one hand,the functional part of the LSEIV model is modified into the errors-in-observations(EIO)model.On the other hand,the stochastic model is modified by applying the Moore-Penrose inverse of the cofactor matrix.The algorithms are derived through the Lagrange multipliers method and linear approximation.The estimation principles and iterative formula of the parameters are proven to be consistent.The first-order approximate variance-covariance matrix(VCM)of the parameters is also derived.A numerical example is given to compare the performances of our proposed three algorithms with the STLS approach.Afterwards,the least squares(LS),total least squares(TLS)and linear structured weighted total least squares(LSWTLS)solutions are compared and the accuracy evaluation formula is proven to be feasible and effective.Finally,the LSWTLS is applied to the field of deformation analysis,which yields a better result than the traditional LS and TLS estimations.

CRB:A new rumor blocking algorithm in online social networks based on competitive spreading model and influence maximization

The virtuality and openness of online social platforms make networks a hotbed for the rapid propagation of various rumors.In order to block the outbreak of rumor,one of the most effective containment measures is spreading positive information to counterbalance the diffusion of rumor.The spreading mechanism of rumors and effective suppression strategies are significant and challenging research issues.Firstly,in order to simulate the dissemination of multiple types of information,we propose a competitive linear threshold model with state transition(CLTST)to describe the spreading process of rumor and anti-rumor in the same network.Subsequently,we put forward a community-based rumor blocking(CRB)algorithm based on influence maximization theory in social networks.Its crucial step is to identify a set of influential seeds that propagate anti-rumor information to other nodes,which includes community detection,selection of candidate anti-rumor seeds and generation of anti-rumor seed set.Under the CLTST model,the CRB algorithm has been compared with six state-of-the-art algorithms on nine online social networks to verify the performance.Experimental results show that the proposed model can better reflect the process of rumor propagation,and review the propagation mechanism of rumor and anti-rumor in online social networks.Moreover,the proposed CRB algorithm has better performance in weakening the rumor dissemination ability,which can select anti-rumor seeds in networks more accurately and achieve better performance in influence spread,sensitivity analysis,seeds distribution and running time.

MODELING OF NONLINEAR SYSTEMS BY MULTIPLE LINEARIZED MODELS

In order to design linear controller for nonlinear systems,a simple but efficient method of modeling a nonlinear system was proposed by means of multiple linearized models at different operating points in the entire range of the expected changes of the operating points.The original nonlinear system was described by linear combination of these multiple linearized models,with the linear combination parameters being identified on line based on least squares method.Model Predictive Control,an optimization based technique,was used to design the linear controller.A sufficient condition for ensuring the existence of a linear controller for the original nonlinear system was also given.Good performance indicated by two simulated examples confirms the usefulness of the proposed method.

Predicting carbon storage of mixed broadleaf forests based on the finite mixture model incorporating stand factors,site quality,and aridity index

The diameter distribution function(DDF)is a crucial tool for accurately predicting stand carbon storage(CS).The current key issue,however,is how to construct a high-precision DDF based on stand factors,site quality,and aridity index to predict stand CS in multi-species mixed forests with complex structures.This study used data from70 survey plots for mixed broadleaf Populus davidiana and Betula platyphylla forests in the Mulan Rangeland State Forest,Hebei Province,China,to construct the DDF based on maximum likelihood estimation and finite mixture model(FMM).Ordinary least squares(OLS),linear seemingly unrelated regression(LSUR),and back propagation neural network(BPNN)were used to investigate the influences of stand factors,site quality,and aridity index on the shape and scale parameters of DDF and predicted stand CS of mixed broadleaf forests.The results showed that FMM accurately described the stand-level diameter distribution of the mixed P.davidiana and B.platyphylla forests;whereas the Weibull function constructed by MLE was more accurate in describing species-level diameter distribution.The combined variable of quadratic mean diameter(Dq),stand basal area(BA),and site quality improved the accuracy of the shape parameter models of FMM;the combined variable of Dq,BA,and De Martonne aridity index improved the accuracy of the scale parameter models.Compared to OLS and LSUR,the BPNN had higher accuracy in the re-parameterization process of FMM.OLS,LSUR,and BPNN overestimated the CS of P.davidiana but underestimated the CS of B.platyphylla in the large diameter classes(DBH≥18 cm).BPNN accurately estimated stand-and species-level CS,but it was more suitable for estimating stand-level CS compared to species-level CS,thereby providing a scientific basis for the optimization of stand structure and assessment of carbon sequestration capacity in mixed broadleaf forests.

Enhancing Software Effort Estimation:A Hybrid Model Combining LSTM and Random Forest

Effort estimation plays a crucial role in software development projects,aiding in resource allocation,project planning,and risk management.Traditional estimation techniques often struggle to provide accurate estimates due to the complex nature of software projects.In recent years,machine learning approaches have shown promise in improving the accuracy of effort estimation models.This study proposes a hybrid model that combines Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)and Random Forest(RF)algorithms to enhance software effort estimation.The proposed hybrid model takes advantage of the strengths of both LSTM and RF algorithms.To evaluate the performance of the hybrid model,an extensive set of software development projects is used as the experimental dataset.The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model outperforms traditional estimation techniques in terms of accuracy and reliability.The integration of LSTM and RF enables the model to efficiently capture temporal dependencies and non-linear interactions in the software development data.The hybrid model enhances estimation accuracy,enabling project managers and stakeholders to make more precise predictions of effort needed for upcoming software projects.

Linear-in-Parameter Models Based on Parsimonious Genetic Programming Algorithm and Its Application to Aero-Engine Start Modeling

A novel Parsimonious Genetic Programming （PGP） algorithm together with a novel aero-engine optimum data-driven dynamic start process model based on PGP is proposed. In application of this method, first, the traditional Genetic Programming（GP） is used to generate the nonlinear input-output models that are represented in a binary tree structure; then, the Orthogonal Least Squares algorithm （OLS） is used to estimate the contribution of the branches of the tree （refer to basic function term that cannot be decomposed anymore according to special rule） to the accuracy of the model, which contributes to eliminate complex redundant subtrees and enhance GP＇s convergence speed; and finally, a simple, reliable and exact linear-in-parameter nonlinear model via GP evolution is obtained. The real aero-engine start process test data simulation and the comparisons with Support Vector Machines （SVM） validate that the proposed method can generate more applicable, interpretable models and achieve comparable, even superior results to SVM.

Model Order Reduction Methods for Discrete Systems via Discrete Pulse Orthogonal Functions

This paper explores model order reduction(MOR)methods for discrete linear and discrete bilinear systems via discrete pulse orthogonal functions(DPOFs).Firstly,the discrete linear systems and the discrete bilinear systems are expanded in the space spanned by DPOFs,and two recurrence formulas for the expansion coefficients of the system’s state variables are obtained.Then,a modified Arnoldi process is applied to both recurrence formulas to construct the orthogonal projection matrices,by which the reduced-order systems are obtained.Theoretical analysis shows that the output variables of the reducedorder systems can match a certain number of the expansion coefficients of the original system’s output variables.Finally,two numerical examples illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Numerical modeling of linear friction welding： a literature review

Linear friction welding （LFW） is a solid state process for joining metals together. While this process was developed originaUy for titanium alloys （e. g. blisks ） , over the past decade a number of materials were found to be weldable with LFW. In this review, the current status of understanding and development of LFW are presented. Particular emphasis has been given to the modeling of the LFW process. Finally, opportunities for further research and development of LFW are identified.