The Predictive Potential of the Kinetic Model of Aging of Living Systems in Demography

An original mathematical model,previously tested by the authors on other non-demographic objects,is proposed for describing and forecasting demographic systems—the population of the countries of the World using the examples of the USA,China and Russia,as well as the number of mice in the“mouse paradise”experiment of the American scientist John Calhoun.The proposed approach allows us to describe the stages and features of this dynamics:population growth in the USA,growth and possible decrease in the population in China,loss of a part of the population of the Russian Empire and the USSR due to two world wars and the collapse of the USSR,biological degradation of the“mouse paradise”up to its complete extinction.The use of the kinetic model of aging of various types of living systems to predict the development of the number of demographic systems is based on the assumptions that the aging and development processes are related to each other and have the same statistical regularity,reflecting the fractal principle of Nature-the unity of structure and function.The results obtained suggest that a person,a population of the World,humanity and other biological species develop and simultaneously age like each other under the conditions of the always existing syndrome of general adaptation(stress)and according to the same pattern corresponding to the mathematical model proposed here.

超越传统行动研究的一种新模式:LIVING THEORY

近年来行动研究在我国蓬勃开展,为外语教师专业发展提供了一条新思路。目前国内开展的行动研究属于传统行动研究,可以看作是一种介于传统研究与真正意义上的行动研究之间的一种过渡形式。通过对以人本主义为特征的不同于传统行动研究模式的新模式即LIVINGTHEORY与传统模式的比较,可以找到两者的结合点,并在此基础上探讨行动研究新的发展模式,可为外语教育师资发展注入新的活力。

Swimming with the Tide-A living Theory Approach to Religious Education

The theoretical framework of this paper is based on the living theory of practice developed by Jack Whitehead. Whitehead holds the view that theory is an outcome of practice and that the practitioner, being an expert of her or his practice, is capable of improving practice by systematically acting, observing, reflecting, evaluating and theorizing about practice. In this research spiral activity, the main question is： How do I improve what I am doing？ By introducing teacher students to action research and living theories in the process of becoming religious education teachers, they are empowered to investigate and to analyse their practice right from the beginning of their life as practitioners. In this process their personal values and the values emerging from the variety of RE themes will inform their critical reflection about to what extent they are able to mirror these values in their actions in the classroom, particularly in their interactions with pupils. Theses purposeful activities will advance their knowledge about what they are doing and inform their evaluation of the quality of teaching and learning constructed in their practices. Teachers or practitioner -- researchers who are able to systematically observe their practice, are in the position of minimizing the gap between values and actions and to give scholarly and informed explanations for what they are doing in the RE classroom.

A Philosophic Idea of Being "ALIVE" in Living Educational Theory——Talking about the Character Education in the New Curriculum

This paper is mainly discussing about the significance of the Living Educational Theory Action Research raised by Dr. Jack Whitehead, also it gives a clear distinction between traditional AR Theory and that in the LETAR. Because of the distinctive features like "individual", "living" and "practical" characteristics been embodied in the Living Educational Theory, it can be very well applied in the character education of improvement in the individual and group practice, therefore, implementation of the "New Curriculum" as a case to prove what has been discussed.

长尾理论在学科服务中的应用--Living Library案例分析

调研高校图书馆学科服务的基本模式,提出应该引入Web2.0"长尾理论"完善学科服务体系,并以上海交通大学图书馆学科服务中特色板块"鲜悦Living library"的实践经验证明,图书馆学科服务可以有效聚类读者长尾群,满足长尾用户群体的信息交流需求。

场域理论视角下的Living Lab的创新实践分析

以布尔迪厄社会学理论中的场域理论为视角,结合Living Lab自身的特征,提出了Living Lab实践场架构,并基于场域理论对Living Lab实践场架构进行了详细的分析和阐述,包括创新主体以及它们之间的相互关系、创新活动过程和创新活动各阶段的不同成果。研究成果将为Living Lab理论与实践的整合提供一个全新的研究框架,也为将来Living Lab的创新实践提供更加清晰的实践指导,有很大的实用价值。

Using"Three-dimensional Space Resources"for Fenlong Technology to Improve Grain Econoloy and Expand Human Living Spaces

Fenlong Technology has been applied to increase yield by 20%-50%,improve quality by 5%,and retain water by 100%in 40 kinds of crop cultivated land and saline-alkali land in 26 provinces of China.This paper clarified for the first time the scientific theory system of Fenlong Technology using three-dimensional space resources"Fenlong Agricultural Nature Theory"and the development of the relative"limits"of agricultural growth,which provides a huge power support and natural force for expanding human living spaces.Through inventing and creating a scientific and technological system of farming tools,farming machinery,farming modes,and magic weapons for cultivation,Fenlong Technology can increase grain,promote ecological development,and greatly expand the living spaces of the Chinese nation and achieve sustainable development.Using Fenlong Technology,China has expanded from the current single"cultivated land agriculture"to the"big pattern agriculture"of Fenlong"cultivated land+saline land+degraded grassland+marginal land+desertified land+river water",flexibly used 147 million ha of"three-dimensional space resources"of land,and the newly increased food,meat,and fish can feed 300 million to 400 million people,increased the water storage by 100 billion m^(3),and reduced the collection of groundwater by 20 million to 60 billion m^(3).

Linear stability theory with the equivalent spanwise wavenumber correction in 3D boundary layers

The prediction on small disturbance propagation in complex three-dimensional(3D) boundary layers is of great significance in transition prediction methodology, especially in the aircraft design. In this paper, the linear stability theory(LST) with the equivalent spanwise wavenumber correction(ESWC) is proposed in order to accurately predict the linear evolution of a disturbance in a kind of boundary layer flow with a vital variation in the spanwise direction. The LST with the ESWC takes not only the scale of the mean flow with the significant variation but also the wavenumber evolution of the disturbance itself. Compared with the conventional LST, the results obtained by the new method are in excellent agreement with those of the numerical simulations. The LST with the ESWC is an effective method on the prediction of the disturbance evolution in 3D boundary layers, which improves the prediction of the LST in the applications to complex 3D boundary layers greatly.

QUALITY EVALUATION OF CHINESE CAPITAL CITIES′ LIVING SPACE IN 2001

The quality dimension of the urban living space was addressed much earlier abroad; nevertheless, it has not been studied in the Chinese academia up to date, as evidenced by the limited research literature. Through recourse to Rich BOYER′s nine-factor theory, this study attempted to evaluate and rank 31 target cities, by using the data from the China Statistical Yearbook 2002. Our research results show that the quality of a city′s living space is in positive correlation with its size, and that there will be changing demands for the quality of the urban living space as a result of future social, economic, sci-tech, cultural and educational developments, combined with the improvement of the overall quality of urban residents. Previous research was focused on the quality of food, housing, education, transportation and entertainment. However, with the development of the knowledge-economy, such factors as information accessibility, green environment, and air quality, will be major considerations in the quality evaluation of the urban living space.

MEEMSAL Theory for an Effective Fight against Insalubrity

Insalubrity is an environmental problem that undermines the living environment as well as the health of populations. The 2016 WHO press release indicated that environmental unsanitary conditions cause 12.6 million deaths per year. This alarming number of deaths is enough to justify the imperative need to fight against any source of insalubrity on a planetary scale. One of the effective strategies for combating any form of insalubrity is the MEEMSAL (an acronym for “Mon Espace d’Evolution Mon SALon”) theory. According to this theory, the eradication of insalubrity and all other forms of anthropogenic pollution must start at school by training learners in eco-citizen education. It is demonstrated in this work that the application of the foundations of the present theory makes it possible to form MEEMSAL generations, some of which will be the future elites and decision-makers of our different nations, which in the long term, will create a healthy environment on a global scale. .

新内生发展理论视域下体育特色村庄助力建设宜居宜业和美乡村路径研究

运用文献资料调研、案例分析和逻辑推理等研究方法,在阐释体育特色村庄助力建设宜居宜业和美乡村的逻辑起点基础上,以新内生发展理论为指导,探讨新内生发展理论视域下体育特色村庄助力建设宜居宜业和美乡村的理论框架、实践案例与实施路径。首先,基于体育特色村庄发展的内生动力不足与外生动力脱嵌的客观情境,构建了包含内生动力(体育资源内生、体育价值认同和村庄体育主体动员)和外生动力(政府扶持和资本下乡)的内外联动的分析框架;其次,以浙江省宁波市象山县青山头村为例,验证了分析框架的行动逻辑;最后,在前期研究的基础上,遵循强化内生-促进外生-注重内外联动的发展思路,提出了挖掘村庄体育资源、强化主体价值认同、动员村庄体育主体、加大政府扶持力度、引导社会资本下乡、打造村庄内外联动治理共同体、促进城乡内外融合协同式发展的实施路径。

透析乡村直播助农体系 建设中的共生逻辑与路径——基于华中J县H村的田野调查

直播正在成为乡村经济发展的新兴力量,然而让直播嵌入乡村的经济、社会与文化体系需要协调各方利益关系,如何让直播更好地助力乡村振兴成为时代命题。通过进入华中J县H村,研究发现乡村干部和村级组织在直播助农中重要的在地作用:通过将政府、村民、资本与技术连接,从纵向引导乡村内部行动主体从自发到自为再到共生,激发内生发展动力;从横向推动直播助农的组织化与制度化,形成利益共同体,走出一条具有中国特色的乡村发展道路。直播助农的关键在于村庄内部的联结与共生,在于对村民的本体重视,其长远的发展目标是乡村治理的数字转型,促进乡村各要素的和谐共生,最终实现乡村现代化。

活动理论视角下游戏化学习中知识转移活动的特征及运行过程研究

[研究目的]将活动理论引入游戏化学习的知识转移活动中,系统性推动游戏化学习中知识转移活动中各要素的高效协作,加快知识转移与共享,促进知识增值和创新。[研究方法]基于活动理论特质和知识特征确定游戏化学习中知识转移特征,并构建知识转移活动模型,以明确各要素的协调交互对知识转移效果的作用,最后以博物馆知识剧本杀为例,验证结论。[研究结论]活动理论能够明确知识转移的运行过程,可以应用于具体活动的显隐性知识转移分析,研究发现活动中的矛盾、游戏内容、技术赋能、共同体的互动和游戏情境对主体的知识转移效果产生显著影响。

虚拟直播电商的销售业绩影响因素与发展对策研究——基于信息源理论的实证分析

随着人工智能技术的发展,由虚拟主播与虚拟场景结合而成的虚拟直播成为电商发展新方向。基于直播电商“流量+转化”的商业本质,在信息源理论框架下构建虚拟直播电商的销售业绩模型,以淘宝直播平台300家虚拟直播间为样本进行实证分析。结果发现:虚拟主播的可信性、专业性和吸引力对销售业绩具有显著的正向影响,作为直播电商主要特征的互动性反而对销售业绩具有显著的负向影响,商品类型对虚拟主播互动性具有调节作用。根据实证分析结果,建议强化虚拟主播特性以提高流量和转化率,提升技术应用水平以填补互动性短板,出台培育政策以降低虚拟主播应用成本。

基于“源-汇”理论的山区农村居民点“三生空间”优化研究——以井陉县为例

本研究根据农村居民点以及太行山区县域“三生空间”分布特征,基于“源-汇”理论和MCR模型,从生态源地扩张和生产源地扩张的角度,依据“三生”功能构建阻力面指标体系,计算最小累积阻力面差,实现县域“三生空间”的划分和农村居民点分类整治优化。结果表明:(1)基于“源-汇”理论的最小累积阻力模型在山区“三生空间”格局构建,农村居民点分类整治中具有相容性和可行性;(2)研究区以生态保护区和生态优化区为主,生态空间占比59.5%,以生态功能为主,农村居民点分布中生产功能占比62.7%,以生产功能导向为主,因此,乡村整治要根据农村居民所处的主导功能分类整治;(3)乡村整治应综合考虑农村居民点的生活、生产、生态功能特征,分类促进山区乡村振兴和生态文明建设。

基于斯坦克伯格博弈理论的直播电商农产品供应链定价策略

为深入理解直播电商环境下农产品供应链的定价策略及面临的挑战,介绍了斯坦克伯格博弈理论及直播电商农产品供应链的框架和核心特征。评述了直播电商农产品供应链定价问题的复杂性,并建立了基于假设的多种决策模型。通过数值分析方法,分析了这些模型的有效性和适用性。结果表明,直播电商环境下农产品供应链定价策略的选择对增加各参与方的利益具有明显影响,且集中决策模式在实现供应链整体利益最大化方面效果最佳。归纳了直播电商农产品供应链面临的主要挑战和决策困境,得出了优化直播电商农产品供应链定价策略的重要性,以期最大化供应链各环节参与者的共同利益。提出了针对直播电商农产品供应链定价问题的改进建议和策略,认为在直播电商快速发展的背景下,采用先进的博弈理论对定价策略进行科学分析与优化,对提升农产品供应链的整体效率和竞争力至关重要。

农产品直播情境下消费者积极购后行为影响因素研究

基于ABC态度理论模型,将农产品电商直播购物特征的影响因素划分为平台服务与物流服务两个维度。其中,平台服务维度涵盖信息质量、互动性以及激励机制;物流服务维度包含专业性和响应性。从消费者满意度的视角切入,构建农产品电商直播情境中消费者积极购后行为(如重复购买、口碑推荐)影响研究模型。基于339份参与农产品电商直播用户的问卷调查数据,采用结构方程模型和Bootstrap中介分析法进行实证研究。研究结果显示:平台服务维度的信息质量、互动性与激励机制通过消费者满意度对消费者的积极购后行为产生影响;物流服务维度的专业性和响应性同样通过消费者满意度对消费者的积极购后行为产生影响。基于上述研究结论,为农产品电商直播企业在平台服务和物流服务方面提出如下建议:提高观众所获农产品相关信息的质量;重视农产品直播中激励机制对消费者满意度的影响;增强直播间的互动性,提高观众与主播、观众与观众之间的交流频率和效率;重点关注物流问题。

拟人化线索和直播氛围双视角下数字人直播用户参与行为影响机制研究

数字人技术可为直播行业注入新活力,如何提升数字人直播质量,增强用户参与度是亟待解决的管理问题。本研究基于S-O-R理论构建数字人直播用户参与行为影响机制模型,通过结构方程模型(SEM)和模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)识别用户参与行为关键影响因素及组态路径。研究发现:(1)交互型线索和解说氛围正向影响信任;印象型线索、移情性线索、娱乐氛围和解说氛围正向影响社会临场感;社会临场感正向影响信任,信任和社会临场感正向影响用户参与行为;所有影响因素均不能构成用户参与行为的必要条件,需多种因素协同发挥作用。(2)高娱乐氛围、高信任和高社会临场感均存在于围观式、表达式及购买式参与行为的所有组态中,对用户参与行为具有促进作用。在此基础上,围观式参与行为产生路径为情感内容驱动路径及形象内容驱动路径;表达式参与行为产生路径为情感驱动路径;购买式参与行为产生路径为情感形象驱动路径和情感社交驱动路径。

基于哈贝马斯交往行为理论的沟通模式在急诊脑外伤患者中的应用

目的探讨基于哈贝马斯交往行为理论的沟通模式在急诊脑外伤患者中的应用效果。方法回顾性分析2021年1月—2022年12月在西安交通大学第一附属医院进行救治的106例脑外伤患者的临床资料,根据护理干预方法不同分为观察组和对照组,每组53例。对照组患者采用常规脑外伤急救护理干预,观察组患者采用基于哈贝马斯交往行为理论的沟通模式进行干预。比较2组患者的确诊时间、手术准备时间、住院时间等急诊救治效果指标及家属护理满意度,同时比较2组患者的神经功能缺损状况、日常生活能力等指标以及并发症发生情况。结果干预前,2组患者美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表(NIHSS)评分比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);干预后,观察组患者的NIHSS评分低于对照组,日常生活能力量表(ADL)评分高于对照组,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。干预前,2组患者神经行为认知状态检查(NCSE)量表及格拉斯哥昏迷评分量表(GCS)评分比较,差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05);干预后,观察组患者的NCSE和GCS评分均高于对照组,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。观察组患者的确诊时间、手术准备时间、住院时间均短于对照组,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。观察组患者家属对护理人员沟通能力、健康宣教水平、操作技能、服务态度4项护理满意度评分均高于对照组,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。观察组与对照组患者术后并发症发生率分别为5.67%和15.09%,差异无统计学意义(χ^(2)=2.536,P=0.111)。结论基于哈贝马斯交往行为理论的沟通模式应用于急诊脑外伤患者护理中,有助于减轻患者神经功能受损程度,改善患者神经认知功能,提升急诊救治效率和家属护理满意度。

基于SOR理论的电商直播销售影响机制实证研究

电商直播已经成为一种新的经济模式,越来越多的商家选择该模式进行销售商品。运用某直播运营公司在天猫和京东直播数据,以SOR理论为基础,从直播电商的视角进行销售额影响机制研究,结果发现:电商直播时段对观看人数有显著影响,选择晚间直播和在周三进行直播观看人数最多;直播经验、直播时长、成交件数和观看人数都能显著增加涨粉人数,而主播的性别对涨粉人数没有显著影响;观看人数与涨粉人数都能显著促进直播销售。研究内容拓展了以往从消费者角度进行分析的研究视角,直接从电商直播环境角度探索其内在的销售额影响机制,对商家和相关监管部门都有一定的实践和指导意义。