Clustering residential electricity load curve via community detection in network

Performing analytics on the load curve(LC)of customers is the foundation for demand response which requires a better understanding of customers'consumption pattern(CP)by analyzing the load curve.However,the performances of previous widely-used LC clustering methods are poor in two folds:larger number of clusters,huge variances within a cluster(a CP is extracted from a cluster),bringing huge difficulty to understand the electricity consumption pattern of customers.In this paper,to improve the performance of LC clustering,a clustering framework incorporated with community detection is proposed.The framework includes three parts:network construction,community detection,and CP extraction.According to the cluster validity index(CVI),the integrated approach outperforms the previous state-of-the-art method with the same amount of clusters.And the approach needs fewer clusters to achieve the same performance measured by CVI.

Prediction of Load-Displacement Curve of Flexible Pipe Carcass Under Radial Compression Based on Residual Neural Network

The carcass layer of flexible pipe comprises a large-angle spiral structure with a complex interlocked stainless steel cross-section profile, which is mainly used to resist radial load. With the complex structure of the carcass layer, an equivalent simplified model is used to study the mechanical properties of the carcass layer. However, the current equivalent carcass model only considers the elastic deformation, and this simplification leads to huge errors in the calculation results. In this study, radial compression experiments were carried out to make the carcasses to undergo plastic deformation. Subsequently, a residual neural network based on the experimental data was established to predict the load-displacement curves of carcasses with different inner diameter in plastic states under radial compression.The established neural network model’s high precision was verified by experimental data, and the influence of the number of input variables on the accuracy of the neural network was discussed. The conclusion shows that the residual neural network model established based on the experimental data of the small-diameter carcass layer can predict the load-displacement curve of the large-diameter carcass layer in the plastic stage. With the decrease of input data, the prediction accuracy of residual network model in plasticity stage will decrease.

A STUDY OF THE POSTBUCKLING PATH OF CYLINDRICALLY CURVED PANELS OF LAMINATED COMPOSITE MATERIALS DURING LOADING AND UNLOADING

In this paper, Dynamic Relaxation Method is applied to study the postbuckling path of cylindrically curved panels of laminated composite materials during loading and unloading. The phenomenon that loading paths do not coincide with unloading paths has been found. Numerical results are given for cylindrically curved cross-ply panels subjected to uniform uniaxial compression under two types of boundary conditions. The influence of the number of layers, the panels curvature and the initial imperfection on the postbuckling paths is discussed.

STEADY-STATE RESPONSE OF A TIMOSHENKO BEAM ON AN ELASTIC HALF-SPACE UNDER A MOVING LOAD

By introducing the equivalent stiffness of an elastic half-space interacting with a Timoshenko beam, the displacement solution of the beam resting on an elastic half-space subjected to a moving load is presented. Based on the relative relation of wave velocities of the half-space and the beam, four cases with the combination of different parameters of the half-space and the beam, the system of soft beam and hard half-space, the system of sub-soft beam and hard half- space, the system of sub-hard beam and soft half-space, and the system of hard beam and soft half-space are considered. The critical velocities of the moving load are studied using dispersion curves. It is found that critical velocities of the moving load on the Timoshenko beam depend on the relative relation of wave velocities of the half-space and the beam. The Rayleigh wave velocity in the half-space is always a critical velocity and the response of the system will be infinite when the load velocity reaches it. For the system of soft beam and hard half-space, wave velocities of the beam are also critical velocities. Besides the shear wave velocity of the beam, there is an additional minimum critical velocity for the system of sub-soft beam and hard half-space. While for systems of （sub-） hard beams and soft half-space, wave velocities of the beam are no longer critical ones. Comparison with the Euler-Bernoulli beam shows that the critical velocities and response of the two types of beams are much different for the system of （sub-） soft beam and hard half-space but are similar to each other for the system of （sub-） hard beam and soft half space. The largest displacement of the beam is almost at the location of the load and the displacement along the beam is almost symmetrical if the load velocity is smaller than the minimum critical velocity （the shear wave velocity of the beam for the system of soft beam and hard half-space）. The largest displacement of the beam shifts behind the load and the asymmetry of the displacement along the beam increases with the increase of the load velocity due to the damping and wave racliation. The displacement of the beam at the front of the load is very small if the load velocity is larger than the largest wave velocity of the beam and the half space. The results of the present study provide attractive theoretical and practical references for the analysis of ground vibration induced by the high-speed train.

Stress response characteristics of BFRP anchors on loess mudstone slope under rainfall conditions

To investigate the stress response characteristics and shear stress transfer mechanism of BFRP(basalt fiber reinforced plastics)anchors under rainfall conditions and to explore the reinforcement effect of BFRP anchors,a comparative indoor physical model test was conducted in this study using loess mudstone slope as a typical case,and multi-attribute response data,such as slope displacement,BFRP anchor strain and axial force,were obtained.Based on the variation law of slope displacement,it can be concluded that the deformation displacement of the slope on the side reinforced by BFRP anchors is smaller than that of slopes reinforced with steel anchors;the bearing capacity of BFRP anchor is given priority in time,and the anchoring effect of BFRP anchor at the top of the slope is given priority,and the axial force value of anchor is characterized by a surface amplification effect in space;the axial force is higher around the anchor head and tends to decay as a negative exponential function as the anchor extends in the direction of the interior of the slope;the shear stress of BFRP anchor and anchorage body are unevenly distributed along the axial direction,with the maximum value occurring in the free section near the slope surface and decreases as the BFRP anchor extends towards the interior of the slope.These results can provide a theoretical basis for the optimal design of BFRP anchors.

Exciting News from Indentations onto Silicon, Copper, and Tungsten

Indentations onto crystalline silicon and copper with various indenter geometries, loading forces at room temperature belong to the widest interests in the field, because of the physical detection of structural phase transitions. By using the mathematically deduced FNh3/2 relation for conical and pyramidal indentations we have a toolbox for deciding between faked and experimental loading curves. Four printed silicon indentation loading curves (labelled with 292 K, 260 K, 240 K and 210 K) proved to be faked and not experimental. This is problematic for the AI (artificial intelligence) that will probably not be able to sort faked data out by itself but must be told to do so. High risks arise, when published faked indentation reports remain unidentified and unreported for the mechanics engineers by reading, or via AI. For example, when AI recommends a faked quality such as “no phase changes” of a technical material that is therefore used, it might break down due to an actually present low force, low transition energy phase-change. This paper thus installed a tool box for the distinction of experimental and faked loading curves of indentations. We found experimental and faked loading curves of the same research group with overall 14 authoring co-workers in three publications where valid and faked ones were next to each other and I can thus only report on the experimental ones. The comparison of Si and Cu with W at 20-fold higher physical hardness shows its enormous influence to the energies of phase transition and of their transition energies. Thus, the commonly preferred ISO14577-ASTM hardness values HISO (these violate the energy law and are simulated!) leads to almost blind characterization and use of mechanically stressed technical materials (e.g. airplanes, windmills, bridges, etc). The reasons are carefully detected and reported to disprove that the coincidence or very close coincidence of all of the published loading curves from 150 K to 298 K are constructed but not experimental. A tool-box for distinction of experimental from faked indentation loading curves (simulations must be indicated) is established in view of protecting the AI from faked data, which it might not be able by itself to sort them out, so that technical materials with wrongly attributed mechanical properties might lead to catastrophic accidents such as all of us know of. There is also the risk that false theories might lead to discourage the design of important research projects or for not getting them granted. This might for example hamper or ill-fame new low temperature indentation projects. The various hints for identifying faked claims are thus presented in great detail. The low-temperature instrumental indentations onto silicon have been faked in two consecutive publications and their reporting in the third one, so that these are not available for the calculation of activation energies. Conversely, the same research group published an indentation loading curve of copper as taken at 150 K that could be tested for its validity with the therefore created tools of validity tests. The physical algebraic calculations provided the epochal detection of two highly exothermic phase transitions of copper that created two polymorphs with negative standard energy content. This is world-wide the second case and the first one far above the 77 K of liquid nitrogen. Its existence poses completely new thoughts for physics chemistry and perhaps techniques but all of them are open and unprepared for our comprehension. The first chemical reactions might be in-situ photolysis and the phase transitions can be calculated from experimental curves. But several further reported low temperature indentation loading curves of silicon were tested for their experimental reality. And the results are compared to new analyses with genuine room temperature results. A lot is to be learned from the differences at room and low temperature.

Bearing mechanism of a tunnel-type anchorage in a railway suspension bridge

A tunnel-type anchorage(TTA)is one of the main components in suspension bridges:the bearing mechanism is a key problem.Investigating the deformation characteristics,development law,and failure phenomenon of a TTA under load can provide the theoretical basis for a robust design.Utilizing the TTA of the Jinsha River suspension bridge at Lijiang Shangri-La railway as a prototype,a laboratory model test of the TTA was carried out for three different contact conditions between the anchorage body and the surrounding rock.The stress and deformation distribution law of the anchorage body and its surrounding rock were studied,and the ultimate bearing capacity and failure mode of the TTA were analyzed.The test results show that the compressive stress level is highest at the rear part of the anchorage body.Moving away from the rear portion of the body,the stress decays in a negative exponential function.Based on the load transfer curve,the calculation formula for the shear stress on the contact surface between the anchorage body and the surrounding rock was derived,which shows that the distribution of the shear stress along the axial direction of the anchorage body is not uniform.The distance from the maximum value to the loading surface is approximately 1/3 of the length of the anchorage body,and the stress decreases as the distance from the loading surface increases.Furthermore,the contact condition between the anchorage body and surrounding rock has a great influence on the bearing capacity of the TTA.The increase in the anti-skid tooth ridge and radial anchor bolt can improve the cooperative working capacity of the anchorage body and the surrounding rock,which is approximately 50%higher than that of the flat contact condition.The main function of the anchor bolt is to increase the overall rigidity of the TTA.The contact condition between the anchorage body and the surrounding rock will lead to a change in the failure mode of the TTA.With an increase in the degree of contact,the failure mode will change from shear sliding along the interface to trumpet-shaped inverted cone-shaped failure extending into the surrounding rock.

Structural Analysis and Improved Design of the Gearbox Casing of a Certain Type of Tracked Vehicle

Loads on a gearbox casing of a certain type of tracked vehicle were calculated according to the engine＇s full load characteristic curve and the worst load condition where the gearbox operated while the tracked vehicle was running, and then stiffness and strength of the casing were analyzed by means of Patran/Nastran software. After a- nalysis, it was found that the casing satisfied the Mises ＇ yield condition; however, the stress distribution was hetero- geneous, and stresses near the bearing saddle bores of the casing were higher while those in other regions were much less than the allowable stress. For this reason, thicknesses of the casing wall on bearing assembling holes needed in- creasing, while those in other places can decrease. After much structural improving and re-analysis, the optimal casing design was found, and its weight decreased by 5% ; the casing still satisfied the Mises yield criterion and the stress distribution was more homogeneous.

Forecasting Daily Electric Load by Applying Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Transformation and Principal Component Analysis Technique

In this paper,we propose a hybrid forecasting model(HFM)for the short-term electric load forecasting using artificial neural network(ANN),discrete Fourier transformation(DFT)and principal component analysis(PCA)techniques in order to attain higher prediction accuracy.Firstly,we estimate Fourier coefficients by the DFT for predicting the next-day load curve with an ANN and obtain approximate load curves by applying the inverse discrete Fourier transformation.Approximate curves,together with other input variables,are given to the ANN to predict the next-day hourly load curves.Furthermore,we predict PCA scores to obtain approximate load curves in the first step,which are then given to the ANN again in the second step.Both DFT and PCA models use input variables such as calendrical and meteorological data as well as past electric loads.Applying those models for forecasting hourly electric load in the metropolitan area of Japan for January and May in 2018,we train our models using historical data since January 2008.The forecast results show that the HFM consisting of“ANN with DFT”and“ANN with PCA”predicts next-day hourly loads more accurately than the conventional three-layered ANN approach.Their corresponding mean average absolute errors show 2.7%for ANN with DFT,2.6%for ANN with PCA and 3.0%for the conventional ANN approach.We also find that in May,when electric demand is smaller with smaller fluctuations,forecasting errors are much smaller than January for all the models.Thus,we can conclude that the HFM would contribute to attaining significantly higher forecasting accuracy.

Frequency-dependent random fatigue of panel-type structures made of ceramic matrix composites

The panel-type structures used in aerospace engineering can be subjected to severe highfrequency acoustic loadings in service. This paper evaluates the frequency-dependent random fatigue of panel-type structures made of ceramic matrix composites（CMCs） under acoustic loadings. Firstly, the high-frequency random responses from the broadband random excitation will result in more stress cycles in a deinite period of time. The probability density distributions of stress amplitudes will be different in different frequency bandwidths, though the peak stress estimations are identical. Secondly, the fatigue properties of CMCs can be highly frequency-dependent. The fatigue evaluation method for the random vibration case is adopted to evaluate the fatigue damage of a representative stiffened panel structure. The frequency effect through S-N curves on random fatigue damage is numerically veriied. Finally, a parameter is demonstrated to characterize the mean vibration frequency of a random process, and hence this parameter can further be considered as a reasonable loading frequency in the fatigue tests of CMCs to obtain more reliable S-N curves.Therefore, the inluence of vibration frequency can be incorporated in the random fatigue model from the two perspectives.