This study is motivated by the lack of direct empirical research on the relationship between intangible assets (IA) and loan interest rates for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in emerging markets. This ...This study is motivated by the lack of direct empirical research on the relationship between intangible assets (IA) and loan interest rates for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in emerging markets. This study uses a multivariate regression to investigate the effects of 1A on loan interest rates by focusing on SMEs. Using a panel sample of 186 publicly-listed SMEs with 952 annual observations in Taiwan from 2001 to 2006, the empirical findings indicate that an SME's IA does negatively affect loan interest rates. The main contribution of this study lies in its direct testing of whether IA can affect the loan interest rates for SMEs in an emerging market. The finding provides empirical evidence that an SME with greater IA leads to lower interest rates on bank loans, implying that SMEs should strive to invest in IA and enhance their knowledge management for obtaining more benefits of loan interest rates. Furthermore, the findings may provide empirical evidence for SMEs in emerging markets and can be compared with those for firms in industrialized economies.展开更多
This paper develops a model where two lenders to subprime borrowers compete with the interest rates charged and the severity of loan covenants. The model has a stable equilibrium, which demonstrates how an increase in...This paper develops a model where two lenders to subprime borrowers compete with the interest rates charged and the severity of loan covenants. The model has a stable equilibrium, which demonstrates how an increase in the number of borrowers or an increase in the cost of meeting covenants will reduce the severity of the covenants required by lenders, and each of these changes will increase the difference in the severity of the loan covenant levels. An increase in the expected losses to the lender from relaxing covenants will increase the severity of loan covenants, and this will also make the levels of severity more dispersed. Additional analysis demonstrates how exogenous shifts affect the interest rates charged by the lenders and their profits展开更多
The network arbitration cases arising from the network lending disputes are pouring into the courts in large numbers.It is reported that the network arbitration system of some arbitration institutions even“can accept...The network arbitration cases arising from the network lending disputes are pouring into the courts in large numbers.It is reported that the network arbitration system of some arbitration institutions even“can accept more than 10,000 cases every day,”while online lending is booming,it has also caused a lot of contradictions and disputes,and traditional dispute resolution methods have failed to effectively respond to the need for efficient and convenient resolution of online lending disputes.This paper tries to study the arbitral award of online loans and proposes the construction of implementation review rules.展开更多
In order to reduce the risk of non-performing loans, losses, and improve the loan approval efficiency, it is necessary to establish an intelligent loan risk and approval prediction system. A hybrid deep learning model...In order to reduce the risk of non-performing loans, losses, and improve the loan approval efficiency, it is necessary to establish an intelligent loan risk and approval prediction system. A hybrid deep learning model with 1DCNN-attention network and the enhanced preprocessing techniques is proposed for loan approval prediction. Our proposed model consists of the enhanced data preprocessing and stacking of multiple hybrid modules. Initially, the enhanced data preprocessing techniques using a combination of methods such as standardization, SMOTE oversampling, feature construction, recursive feature elimination (RFE), information value (IV) and principal component analysis (PCA), which not only eliminates the effects of data jitter and non-equilibrium, but also removes redundant features while improving the representation of features. Subsequently, a hybrid module that combines a 1DCNN with an attention mechanism is proposed to extract local and global spatio-temporal features. Finally, the comprehensive experiments conducted validate that the proposed model surpasses state-of-the-art baseline models across various performance metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and AUC. Our proposed model helps to automate the loan approval process and provides scientific guidance to financial institutions for loan risk control.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to examine the time series properties of Australian residential mortgage interest rates, and in doing so, establish whether or not selected home loan rates (product-level monthly home loa...The purpose of this paper is to examine the time series properties of Australian residential mortgage interest rates, and in doing so, establish whether or not selected home loan rates (product-level monthly home loan interest rates for CBA) exhibit the expected cyclical and seasonal variations and whether seasonality, if present, is stochastic or deterministic. In particular, due to a well established presence of cyclicality in financial markets' interest rates and strong correlation between financial markets' interest rates and home loan interest rates, the paper presumes that cyclicality is also to be found in home loan interest rates. Furthermore, the paper tests the hypothesis that home loan interest rates, for selected products, exhibit the three identified ("Spring", "Autumn" and "The end of the Financial Year") season-related interest rate reductions. The paper uses a structural time series modelling approach and product-level home loan interest rates data from one of the biggest banks in Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). As expected, the results overall confirm the existence of cyclicality in home loan interest rates. With respect to the seasonality of home loan interest rate, although most of the analysed variables show the presence of statistically significant seasonal factors, the majority of the statistically significant seasonal factors observed cannot be attributed to any of the three considered seasonal effects.展开更多
Based on the redefinition of Chinese loan words and corresponding types of Chinese loan words, this article makes an initiative hypothesis that nowadays the ideographic trend of Chinese loan words is being hastened to...Based on the redefinition of Chinese loan words and corresponding types of Chinese loan words, this article makes an initiative hypothesis that nowadays the ideographic trend of Chinese loan words is being hastened to a greater degree than before.Depending on the Prototype Models Theory for the types of Chinese loan words, a comprehensive analysis of this trend is made in four aspects:the transfer from transliteration loans to loan translation;the ideographic trend of transliteration loans;the full ideograph of shift loan words;word-for-word translation of loan words.展开更多
The development of China has tremendously enhanced the intercultural communication among various nations and ethnic groups. As a result, more and more words are borrowed from English into Chinese to express those west...The development of China has tremendously enhanced the intercultural communication among various nations and ethnic groups. As a result, more and more words are borrowed from English into Chinese to express those western-oriented objects,concepts, values, etc. This paper focuses on English loan words and their impact on Chinese. First, their classification will be presented; then, this paper will elaborate on the main characteristics of them; at last, their lexical as well as cultural impact on Chinese are revealed. Overall, it aims at proving that English loan words help promote the development and innovation of the Chinese language and enhance the performance of different language learners thus facilitating international exchange and crosscultural communication.展开更多
Background:This study examined the determinants of loan repayment among microcredit finance group members in Delta State,Nigeria.Methods:To capture the determinants of loan repayment in the study area,a total of 48 mi...Background:This study examined the determinants of loan repayment among microcredit finance group members in Delta State,Nigeria.Methods:To capture the determinants of loan repayment in the study area,a total of 48 microcredit groups and 300 microcredit group members were randomly selected through a multi-stage random sampling technique.The study data was collected by questionnaire.Statistical tools such as simple descriptive statistics(table,frequency,percentage and mean)and a multiple regression analysis were used to examine the data.Results:The results indicate that females form a greater proportion of the study area microcredit group members at 70%,moreover 73%of the respondents have a household size of between 6 to 10 persons.These findings revealed that the groups had a mean 8 years of existence with a mean membership size of 13 persons.Further,an average interest rate of 40 percent per annum was charged on loans,with mean loan duration of 6 months.The regression’s result demonstrated that the determinants of the group member’s loan repayment included the group member’s age,household size,house income,and educational level,the amount of credit received,length of stay in their locality,distance to the credit source,supervision and disbursement lag.Conclusion:Therefore it was suggested that the various agricultural microcredit finance groups should carefully examine the significant determinants of loan repayment for the approach’s viability and sustainability and for optimum repayment performance.展开更多
During the financial crisis, the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans and other financial instruments was identified as a weakness in existing incurred loss model of impairment stated by International Account...During the financial crisis, the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans and other financial instruments was identified as a weakness in existing incurred loss model of impairment stated by International Accounting Standards (IAS) 39, because it is believed that this delay might generate pro-cyclical effects. In response to the recommendations of G20, Financial Crisis Advisory Group (FCAG), and other international bodies, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) has undertaken, since 2009, as a part of the project to replace IAS 39, a project (partially shared with Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB)) aimed at introducing an expected loss model of impairment. Within the scope of this subset project, the IASB has previously issued two exposure documents proposing models to account for expected credit losses: an exposure draft (ED) Financial Instrument: Amortized Cost and Impairment, published in November 2009, and a supplementary document (SD) Financial Instrument: Impairment, published jointly with the FASB in January 2011. However, neither of the two proposals received strong support from interested parties. Recently, the IASB, after the FASB's decision to withdraw from the joint project and to develop a separate expected credit loss model based on a single measurement approach consisting in the sole recognition of lifetime expected credit losses, published a third proposal--Ahe so-called expected credit losses model (ED/2013/3 Financial Instruments: Expected Credit Losses).展开更多
Central bank digital currencies(CBDCs),which are legal tenders in digital form,are expected to reduce currency issuance and circulation costs and broaden the scope of monetary policy.In addition,these currencies may a...Central bank digital currencies(CBDCs),which are legal tenders in digital form,are expected to reduce currency issuance and circulation costs and broaden the scope of monetary policy.In addition,these currencies may also reduce consumers’need for conventional demand deposits,which,in turn,increases banks’loan provision costs because deposits require higher rates of return.We use a microeconomic banking model to investigate the effects of introducing an economy-wide,account-type CBDC on a bank’s loan supply and its failure risk.Given that a CBDC is expected to lower the cost of liquidity circulation and become a strong substitute for demand deposits,both the loan supply and the bank failure risk increase.These increases are countered by subsequent increases in the rates of return on term deposits and loans,which,in turn,reduce the loan supply and thus bank failure risk.These offsetting forces lead to no significant change in banking,as long as the rate of return on loans is below a certain threshold.However,once the rate is above the threshold,bank failure risk increases,thereby undermining banking stability.The problem is more pronounced when the degree of pass-through of funding costs to the loan rate is high and the profitability of a successful project is low.Our results imply that central banks wishing to introduce an economy-wide,account-type CBDC should first monitor yields on bank loans and consider policy measures that induce banks to maintain adequate liquidity reserve levels.展开更多
Background:The dramatic loan growth and changes in the Pakistani banking system in mid-2000s have led to significant research attention on borrowers and lenders.This expansion and diversification in financial sector w...Background:The dramatic loan growth and changes in the Pakistani banking system in mid-2000s have led to significant research attention on borrowers and lenders.This expansion and diversification in financial sector was driven by structural reforms,political stability and significant economic growth.Against this background,this study investigates the loan growth and risk-taking behavior of the banks during the expansionary periods of lending.Method:This study used dynamic two-step system generalized method of moment’s estimation technique,based on data taken from 32 banks in Pakistan over 2006-2014.Result:Loan growth has a significant effect on bank-specific and macroeconomicspecific variables.Loan growth in the previous year raises non-performing loans and decreases the solvency of banks with a time lag of many years.The driving force behind this phenomenon is weak prudential regulation among competitors,the asymmetric information of the borrowers,and,most importantly,that banks underestimate the risk of lending during credit booms.Conclusion:More regulatory measures are required to ensure a strong financial system when the volume of non-performing loan grows significantly.An increase in the capital requirement policy for rapidly growing banks is also needed because the problem of abnormal loan growth cannot be detected at the current time.At the same time,strong supervision is necessary to avoid the adverse consequences of borrower selection.展开更多
This paper describes the development of a knowledgebased system (KBS) for determining whether or not, and under what conditions, a bank Ioan officer should grant a business loan to a company. The prototype system deve...This paper describes the development of a knowledgebased system (KBS) for determining whether or not, and under what conditions, a bank Ioan officer should grant a business loan to a company. The prototype system developed focuses on what is bank loans risks management, how to prevent risk by the analysis of the ability of paying back loans. The paper makes the structural analysis involved in the system's decision situation, the structured situation diagram or model, dependency diagram and the document needed by the KBS prototype system thus are developed. Through testing the samples from loan business, the quality for the analysis of the ability of paying back loans can be effectively evaluated by the KBS prototype system.展开更多
Intelligent Decision Support System (IISS) for Bank Loans Risk Classification (BLRC), based on the way of integration Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Expert System (ES), is proposed. According to the feature of BL...Intelligent Decision Support System (IISS) for Bank Loans Risk Classification (BLRC), based on the way of integration Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Expert System (ES), is proposed. According to the feature of BLRC, the key financial and non-financial factors are analyzed. Meanwhile, ES and Model Base (MB) which contain ANN are designed . The general framework,interaction and integration of the system are given. In addition, how the system realizes BLRC is elucidated in detail.展开更多
According to the index early warning method, a commercial bank loans risk early warning system based on BP neural networks is proposed. The warning signal is mainly involved with the financial situation signal of loan...According to the index early warning method, a commercial bank loans risk early warning system based on BP neural networks is proposed. The warning signal is mainly involved with the financial situation signal of loaning corporation. Except the structure description of the system structure the demonstration of attemptive designing is also elaborated.展开更多
Studying petty loan forestry property mortgage mode has significant practical meaning in fund-raising and income-increasing in the forest- agriculture industry,restructuring and expanding the industry as well as setti...Studying petty loan forestry property mortgage mode has significant practical meaning in fund-raising and income-increasing in the forest- agriculture industry,restructuring and expanding the industry as well as setting up scientific industrial public policies. On the basis of literature analysis and field research data,this paper will classify and analyze research papers studying in forestry,property mortgage,and therefore draws conclusions on relevant concepts of petty loan forestry property mortgage,economics and property rights theory as well. At present,the studies of petty loan forestry property mortgage are more practical that are lack of an overall theoretical framework. Considering China's real situation of petty loan forestry property mortgage mode,we have investigated some foreign cases in operating forestry property mortgage systemically and some challenges and difficulties confronted by stakeholders in real cases. Therefore,we put forward that in the current period the fund-raising in forestry industry should focus on establishing and improving an overall rural petty loan forestry property mortgage mode.展开更多
Background:We investigated the determination of the pledged loan-to-value ratio in an optionpricing environment and mainly articulated the theoretical framework and analytical method.Methods:The basic idea is that the...Background:We investigated the determination of the pledged loan-to-value ratio in an optionpricing environment and mainly articulated the theoretical framework and analytical method.Methods:The basic idea is that the present value of the pledged loan payoff is equal to a put option’s value.While the interest rate is fixed and the loan is without coupon,we analyzed the pledged loan-to-value ratioin the option pricing perspective and got it that the pledged loan-to-value ratio is decided by term,excessreturn,and the value volatility of the pledge.Next,we extended the same work to coupon loan and portfoliopledge circumstances.For zero coupon and fixed interest rate circumstances,we performed a numericalanalysis.Results:Our results indicate the following:the pledged loan-to-value ratio is a convex decreasing function ofthe term;and the pledged loan-to-value ratio is a concave decreasing function of the value volatility of the pledge;and the pledged loan-to-value ratio is a concave increasing function of the risk premium.For floating interest rate circumstances,we should specify the function form between the loan interest and the risk-free rate.Conclusions:The scientific measurement of the pledged loan-to-value ratio means that simple rules of thumb or the VaR method may lead to mispricing,which could create the possibility of arbitrage.In this way,a new direction for trading derivative products of pledges will be provided.展开更多
This paper analyzes the loan exit on relationship lending in China. We define the relationship lending and analyze the value that both banks and borrowers will obtain in relationship lending, as well as some risks the...This paper analyzes the loan exit on relationship lending in China. We define the relationship lending and analyze the value that both banks and borrowers will obtain in relationship lending, as well as some risks they will face, and then analyze the behaviors of loans exit with game theory. Our results suggest that, in general, relationship lending is helpful for the commercial banks and the enterprises to communicate information and enhance financing efficiency, while in the loan exit gaming, only when the decision of loan exit is made authentic promised by the banks, can the relationship lending effectively exert their positive function, and maintain the health cooperation between borrowers and lenders.展开更多
Through using game theory,a game model of lendingand borrowing money between banks and individuals isestablished to explain how the risks come into being and are transferred in the dynamic point of view.Some sug-gesti...Through using game theory,a game model of lendingand borrowing money between banks and individuals isestablished to explain how the risks come into being and are transferred in the dynamic point of view.Some sug-gestions about how to avoid the risks are proposed.展开更多
In this paper we analyze the main characteristics of correlative clients and the revolver loan and reduced form models for the correlative clients A and B in real-life. This is done by decomposing the default intensit...In this paper we analyze the main characteristics of correlative clients and the revolver loan and reduced form models for the correlative clients A and B in real-life. This is done by decomposing the default intensity into specific default intensity and homogenous default intensity. We also use a mathematical formula of the default joint distribution function and the marginal distribution function in the physical measure to deduce the martingale measure. The modeling idea on pricing the revolver loan with client A is presented by applying reduced form model. Through calculating the cost and income fund flows under the martingale measure, the framework of a “break-even” pricing model is established. The conclusion is that the interest rate of a revolver loan for client A on the “break-even” point is not related to the maximum authorized amount and the drawdown amount at that time under some assumptions, but only rests with credit rating and homogenous default intensity of client A and B as well as loan term of client A.展开更多
There are problems of inadequate natural endowment and weak stamina in the development of micro-credit loans to farmers in China. Specifically,existing problems include narrow profit space,serious non-agricultural tre...There are problems of inadequate natural endowment and weak stamina in the development of micro-credit loans to farmers in China. Specifically,existing problems include narrow profit space,serious non-agricultural trend of funds,high dependence on government support,short life cycle,and constantly increasing operating risks. These problems are related to endogenous drawback in design,defect in operating procedure,lagging in relevant policies and measures,and vacancy in risk compensation mechanism.展开更多
文摘This study is motivated by the lack of direct empirical research on the relationship between intangible assets (IA) and loan interest rates for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in emerging markets. This study uses a multivariate regression to investigate the effects of 1A on loan interest rates by focusing on SMEs. Using a panel sample of 186 publicly-listed SMEs with 952 annual observations in Taiwan from 2001 to 2006, the empirical findings indicate that an SME's IA does negatively affect loan interest rates. The main contribution of this study lies in its direct testing of whether IA can affect the loan interest rates for SMEs in an emerging market. The finding provides empirical evidence that an SME with greater IA leads to lower interest rates on bank loans, implying that SMEs should strive to invest in IA and enhance their knowledge management for obtaining more benefits of loan interest rates. Furthermore, the findings may provide empirical evidence for SMEs in emerging markets and can be compared with those for firms in industrialized economies.
文摘This paper develops a model where two lenders to subprime borrowers compete with the interest rates charged and the severity of loan covenants. The model has a stable equilibrium, which demonstrates how an increase in the number of borrowers or an increase in the cost of meeting covenants will reduce the severity of the covenants required by lenders, and each of these changes will increase the difference in the severity of the loan covenant levels. An increase in the expected losses to the lender from relaxing covenants will increase the severity of loan covenants, and this will also make the levels of severity more dispersed. Additional analysis demonstrates how exogenous shifts affect the interest rates charged by the lenders and their profits
文摘The network arbitration cases arising from the network lending disputes are pouring into the courts in large numbers.It is reported that the network arbitration system of some arbitration institutions even“can accept more than 10,000 cases every day,”while online lending is booming,it has also caused a lot of contradictions and disputes,and traditional dispute resolution methods have failed to effectively respond to the need for efficient and convenient resolution of online lending disputes.This paper tries to study the arbitral award of online loans and proposes the construction of implementation review rules.
文摘In order to reduce the risk of non-performing loans, losses, and improve the loan approval efficiency, it is necessary to establish an intelligent loan risk and approval prediction system. A hybrid deep learning model with 1DCNN-attention network and the enhanced preprocessing techniques is proposed for loan approval prediction. Our proposed model consists of the enhanced data preprocessing and stacking of multiple hybrid modules. Initially, the enhanced data preprocessing techniques using a combination of methods such as standardization, SMOTE oversampling, feature construction, recursive feature elimination (RFE), information value (IV) and principal component analysis (PCA), which not only eliminates the effects of data jitter and non-equilibrium, but also removes redundant features while improving the representation of features. Subsequently, a hybrid module that combines a 1DCNN with an attention mechanism is proposed to extract local and global spatio-temporal features. Finally, the comprehensive experiments conducted validate that the proposed model surpasses state-of-the-art baseline models across various performance metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and AUC. Our proposed model helps to automate the loan approval process and provides scientific guidance to financial institutions for loan risk control.
文摘The purpose of this paper is to examine the time series properties of Australian residential mortgage interest rates, and in doing so, establish whether or not selected home loan rates (product-level monthly home loan interest rates for CBA) exhibit the expected cyclical and seasonal variations and whether seasonality, if present, is stochastic or deterministic. In particular, due to a well established presence of cyclicality in financial markets' interest rates and strong correlation between financial markets' interest rates and home loan interest rates, the paper presumes that cyclicality is also to be found in home loan interest rates. Furthermore, the paper tests the hypothesis that home loan interest rates, for selected products, exhibit the three identified ("Spring", "Autumn" and "The end of the Financial Year") season-related interest rate reductions. The paper uses a structural time series modelling approach and product-level home loan interest rates data from one of the biggest banks in Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). As expected, the results overall confirm the existence of cyclicality in home loan interest rates. With respect to the seasonality of home loan interest rate, although most of the analysed variables show the presence of statistically significant seasonal factors, the majority of the statistically significant seasonal factors observed cannot be attributed to any of the three considered seasonal effects.
文摘Based on the redefinition of Chinese loan words and corresponding types of Chinese loan words, this article makes an initiative hypothesis that nowadays the ideographic trend of Chinese loan words is being hastened to a greater degree than before.Depending on the Prototype Models Theory for the types of Chinese loan words, a comprehensive analysis of this trend is made in four aspects:the transfer from transliteration loans to loan translation;the ideographic trend of transliteration loans;the full ideograph of shift loan words;word-for-word translation of loan words.
文摘The development of China has tremendously enhanced the intercultural communication among various nations and ethnic groups. As a result, more and more words are borrowed from English into Chinese to express those western-oriented objects,concepts, values, etc. This paper focuses on English loan words and their impact on Chinese. First, their classification will be presented; then, this paper will elaborate on the main characteristics of them; at last, their lexical as well as cultural impact on Chinese are revealed. Overall, it aims at proving that English loan words help promote the development and innovation of the Chinese language and enhance the performance of different language learners thus facilitating international exchange and crosscultural communication.
文摘Background:This study examined the determinants of loan repayment among microcredit finance group members in Delta State,Nigeria.Methods:To capture the determinants of loan repayment in the study area,a total of 48 microcredit groups and 300 microcredit group members were randomly selected through a multi-stage random sampling technique.The study data was collected by questionnaire.Statistical tools such as simple descriptive statistics(table,frequency,percentage and mean)and a multiple regression analysis were used to examine the data.Results:The results indicate that females form a greater proportion of the study area microcredit group members at 70%,moreover 73%of the respondents have a household size of between 6 to 10 persons.These findings revealed that the groups had a mean 8 years of existence with a mean membership size of 13 persons.Further,an average interest rate of 40 percent per annum was charged on loans,with mean loan duration of 6 months.The regression’s result demonstrated that the determinants of the group member’s loan repayment included the group member’s age,household size,house income,and educational level,the amount of credit received,length of stay in their locality,distance to the credit source,supervision and disbursement lag.Conclusion:Therefore it was suggested that the various agricultural microcredit finance groups should carefully examine the significant determinants of loan repayment for the approach’s viability and sustainability and for optimum repayment performance.
文摘During the financial crisis, the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans and other financial instruments was identified as a weakness in existing incurred loss model of impairment stated by International Accounting Standards (IAS) 39, because it is believed that this delay might generate pro-cyclical effects. In response to the recommendations of G20, Financial Crisis Advisory Group (FCAG), and other international bodies, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) has undertaken, since 2009, as a part of the project to replace IAS 39, a project (partially shared with Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB)) aimed at introducing an expected loss model of impairment. Within the scope of this subset project, the IASB has previously issued two exposure documents proposing models to account for expected credit losses: an exposure draft (ED) Financial Instrument: Amortized Cost and Impairment, published in November 2009, and a supplementary document (SD) Financial Instrument: Impairment, published jointly with the FASB in January 2011. However, neither of the two proposals received strong support from interested parties. Recently, the IASB, after the FASB's decision to withdraw from the joint project and to develop a separate expected credit loss model based on a single measurement approach consisting in the sole recognition of lifetime expected credit losses, published a third proposal--Ahe so-called expected credit losses model (ED/2013/3 Financial Instruments: Expected Credit Losses).
基金support from the National Research Foundation of Korea funded by the Ministry of Education(NRF-2020S1A5A8044620).
文摘Central bank digital currencies(CBDCs),which are legal tenders in digital form,are expected to reduce currency issuance and circulation costs and broaden the scope of monetary policy.In addition,these currencies may also reduce consumers’need for conventional demand deposits,which,in turn,increases banks’loan provision costs because deposits require higher rates of return.We use a microeconomic banking model to investigate the effects of introducing an economy-wide,account-type CBDC on a bank’s loan supply and its failure risk.Given that a CBDC is expected to lower the cost of liquidity circulation and become a strong substitute for demand deposits,both the loan supply and the bank failure risk increase.These increases are countered by subsequent increases in the rates of return on term deposits and loans,which,in turn,reduce the loan supply and thus bank failure risk.These offsetting forces lead to no significant change in banking,as long as the rate of return on loans is below a certain threshold.However,once the rate is above the threshold,bank failure risk increases,thereby undermining banking stability.The problem is more pronounced when the degree of pass-through of funding costs to the loan rate is high and the profitability of a successful project is low.Our results imply that central banks wishing to introduce an economy-wide,account-type CBDC should first monitor yields on bank loans and consider policy measures that induce banks to maintain adequate liquidity reserve levels.
文摘Background:The dramatic loan growth and changes in the Pakistani banking system in mid-2000s have led to significant research attention on borrowers and lenders.This expansion and diversification in financial sector was driven by structural reforms,political stability and significant economic growth.Against this background,this study investigates the loan growth and risk-taking behavior of the banks during the expansionary periods of lending.Method:This study used dynamic two-step system generalized method of moment’s estimation technique,based on data taken from 32 banks in Pakistan over 2006-2014.Result:Loan growth has a significant effect on bank-specific and macroeconomicspecific variables.Loan growth in the previous year raises non-performing loans and decreases the solvency of banks with a time lag of many years.The driving force behind this phenomenon is weak prudential regulation among competitors,the asymmetric information of the borrowers,and,most importantly,that banks underestimate the risk of lending during credit booms.Conclusion:More regulatory measures are required to ensure a strong financial system when the volume of non-performing loan grows significantly.An increase in the capital requirement policy for rapidly growing banks is also needed because the problem of abnormal loan growth cannot be detected at the current time.At the same time,strong supervision is necessary to avoid the adverse consequences of borrower selection.
基金Supported by the National Science Foundation of China(No.7977086)
文摘This paper describes the development of a knowledgebased system (KBS) for determining whether or not, and under what conditions, a bank Ioan officer should grant a business loan to a company. The prototype system developed focuses on what is bank loans risks management, how to prevent risk by the analysis of the ability of paying back loans. The paper makes the structural analysis involved in the system's decision situation, the structured situation diagram or model, dependency diagram and the document needed by the KBS prototype system thus are developed. Through testing the samples from loan business, the quality for the analysis of the ability of paying back loans can be effectively evaluated by the KBS prototype system.
基金the National Natural Science Fund of China(Approved No.79779986)
文摘Intelligent Decision Support System (IISS) for Bank Loans Risk Classification (BLRC), based on the way of integration Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Expert System (ES), is proposed. According to the feature of BLRC, the key financial and non-financial factors are analyzed. Meanwhile, ES and Model Base (MB) which contain ANN are designed . The general framework,interaction and integration of the system are given. In addition, how the system realizes BLRC is elucidated in detail.
基金Supported by the National Science Foundation of China(Approved NO.79770086)
文摘According to the index early warning method, a commercial bank loans risk early warning system based on BP neural networks is proposed. The warning signal is mainly involved with the financial situation signal of loaning corporation. Except the structure description of the system structure the demonstration of attemptive designing is also elaborated.
基金Supported by Studies of Rural Policy-favored Petty Loan Forest Property Mortgage Mode,the Youth Fund of MOE(Ministry of Education in China)Project on Humanities and Social Sciences(11YJCZH258)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(RW2011-36)
文摘Studying petty loan forestry property mortgage mode has significant practical meaning in fund-raising and income-increasing in the forest- agriculture industry,restructuring and expanding the industry as well as setting up scientific industrial public policies. On the basis of literature analysis and field research data,this paper will classify and analyze research papers studying in forestry,property mortgage,and therefore draws conclusions on relevant concepts of petty loan forestry property mortgage,economics and property rights theory as well. At present,the studies of petty loan forestry property mortgage are more practical that are lack of an overall theoretical framework. Considering China's real situation of petty loan forestry property mortgage mode,we have investigated some foreign cases in operating forestry property mortgage systemically and some challenges and difficulties confronted by stakeholders in real cases. Therefore,we put forward that in the current period the fund-raising in forestry industry should focus on establishing and improving an overall rural petty loan forestry property mortgage mode.
基金support of National Science Fund of China(No.71003005 and No.71373002).
文摘Background:We investigated the determination of the pledged loan-to-value ratio in an optionpricing environment and mainly articulated the theoretical framework and analytical method.Methods:The basic idea is that the present value of the pledged loan payoff is equal to a put option’s value.While the interest rate is fixed and the loan is without coupon,we analyzed the pledged loan-to-value ratioin the option pricing perspective and got it that the pledged loan-to-value ratio is decided by term,excessreturn,and the value volatility of the pledge.Next,we extended the same work to coupon loan and portfoliopledge circumstances.For zero coupon and fixed interest rate circumstances,we performed a numericalanalysis.Results:Our results indicate the following:the pledged loan-to-value ratio is a convex decreasing function ofthe term;and the pledged loan-to-value ratio is a concave decreasing function of the value volatility of the pledge;and the pledged loan-to-value ratio is a concave increasing function of the risk premium.For floating interest rate circumstances,we should specify the function form between the loan interest and the risk-free rate.Conclusions:The scientific measurement of the pledged loan-to-value ratio means that simple rules of thumb or the VaR method may lead to mispricing,which could create the possibility of arbitrage.In this way,a new direction for trading derivative products of pledges will be provided.
文摘This paper analyzes the loan exit on relationship lending in China. We define the relationship lending and analyze the value that both banks and borrowers will obtain in relationship lending, as well as some risks they will face, and then analyze the behaviors of loans exit with game theory. Our results suggest that, in general, relationship lending is helpful for the commercial banks and the enterprises to communicate information and enhance financing efficiency, while in the loan exit gaming, only when the decision of loan exit is made authentic promised by the banks, can the relationship lending effectively exert their positive function, and maintain the health cooperation between borrowers and lenders.
文摘Through using game theory,a game model of lendingand borrowing money between banks and individuals isestablished to explain how the risks come into being and are transferred in the dynamic point of view.Some sug-gestions about how to avoid the risks are proposed.
文摘In this paper we analyze the main characteristics of correlative clients and the revolver loan and reduced form models for the correlative clients A and B in real-life. This is done by decomposing the default intensity into specific default intensity and homogenous default intensity. We also use a mathematical formula of the default joint distribution function and the marginal distribution function in the physical measure to deduce the martingale measure. The modeling idea on pricing the revolver loan with client A is presented by applying reduced form model. Through calculating the cost and income fund flows under the martingale measure, the framework of a “break-even” pricing model is established. The conclusion is that the interest rate of a revolver loan for client A on the “break-even” point is not related to the maximum authorized amount and the drawdown amount at that time under some assumptions, but only rests with credit rating and homogenous default intensity of client A and B as well as loan term of client A.
文摘There are problems of inadequate natural endowment and weak stamina in the development of micro-credit loans to farmers in China. Specifically,existing problems include narrow profit space,serious non-agricultural trend of funds,high dependence on government support,short life cycle,and constantly increasing operating risks. These problems are related to endogenous drawback in design,defect in operating procedure,lagging in relevant policies and measures,and vacancy in risk compensation mechanism.