In this study, locat circulations and their responses to land use and land cover (LULC) changes over the Yellow Mountains of China are examined by using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations of a s...In this study, locat circulations and their responses to land use and land cover (LULC) changes over the Yellow Mountains of China are examined by using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations of a selected case under weak-gradient synoptic conditions. The results show that mountain-valley breezes over the region are characterized by an intense upslope the northern slope during daytime. A convergence zone flow lasting for about 11 h (0600 1700 LST) along occurs at the mountain ridge and moves northwest- ward with time. During nighttime, wind directions are reversed, starting first at higher elevations. Three sensitivity experiments are conducted, in which the current land covers are replaced by grassland, mixed forest, and bare soil, respectively, while keeping the other model conditions identical to a control run. These sensitivity simulations are designed to represent the changes of LULC over the Yellow Mountains area during the past decades. The results show that changes in land cover could affect substantially land-surface and atmosphere interactions, the evolution of local circulations, and characteristics of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Significant differences are noted in horizontal winds, and sensible and latent heat fluxes. On the other hand, when the surface is covered by mixed forest, slight variations in local winds and surface variables are identified. The results appear to have important implications to urban planning and constructions as well as the transport of air pollutants over mountainous regions.展开更多
The 1979-2001 ERA-40 monthly mean meridional winds are used to calculate the mass streamfunctions in the monsoon region (60-140° E) and Nio zone (160° E-120° W),with which the climate characteristics an...The 1979-2001 ERA-40 monthly mean meridional winds are used to calculate the mass streamfunctions in the monsoon region (60-140° E) and Nio zone (160° E-120° W),with which the climate characteristics and intensity variation of the localized Hadley circulation (LHC) are analyzed over the two regions and the linkage of this LHC to Pacific SST is explored.Evidence suggests as follows.1) The climatological LHC is stronger in the monsoon than in the Nio zone,with its position in the former northward of the latter,especially in the summer half-year.The resulting difference is due mainly to the land-sea heterogeneous distribution and the existence of a cold pool in the equatorial eastern Pacific.2) The LHC experiences a distinct interannual variability in intensity and during 1979-2001 the LHC strength of the two regions changes broadly in an anti-phase manner.3) The LHC has its intensity associated closely with Pacific SST in such a way that its strength anomaly in the monsoon (Nio) band in January is correlated negatively (positively) with the SSTA over the all-Nio (1-4) zone (ANZ) in the equatorial middle and eastern Pacific but positively (negatively) correlated to SSTA in the C-shaped area that surrounds the ANZ.The pattern of July is in rough agreement with that of January,except for more feeble correlativity in July,especially over the monsoon region;4) The ENSO episode has different impacts on the LHC vigor in the two regions.With the occurrence of an El Nio,the LHC is weakened (strengthened) in the monsoon (Nio) region,and the reversal takes place during the La Nia year,with greater anomaly in the Nio area.展开更多
This paper investigates the dry climatology of Sahara and Northwest China deserts from the viewpoint of local meridional circulation with Xie and Arkin rainfall dada and NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data. Results show that th...This paper investigates the dry climatology of Sahara and Northwest China deserts from the viewpoint of local meridional circulation with Xie and Arkin rainfall dada and NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data. Results show that there are very dry centers with annual rainfall less than 50 mm over these two deserts while the rainy seasons are very different. In the south part of Sahara desert center and Northwest China desert, over 70% rainfall takes place in June, July and August (JJA). While in the north part of Sahara, rainfall mainly concentrates in December, January and February (DJF). The local biosphere-radiation mechanism proposed by Charney cannot explain the climatology of such very dry centers. Neither can the monsoon-desert mechanism proposed by Rodwell and Hoskins do for the strongest descent center is much more northward than the driest center over Sahara in JJA. From the viewpoint of local meridional circulation, the dryness climatology of Sahara and Northwest China deserts is investigated and compared. It is shown that in DJF, descent of local meridional circulation dominates the two deserts and very dry climate is unavoidable although the relative wet season is weak over the northern part of Sahara due to Mediterranean climate. While in JJA, there is ascent over the two deserts especially over Northwest China. Such ascent can explain the rainy season in south part of Sahara and Northwest China deserts. However, it is the local meridional circulation that takes strong and dry northerly from higher latitudes. The northerly either takes little moisture to the centers or prevents deep and strong convection over the centers. Such local meridional circulation leads to the dry climatology over the two deserts.展开更多
Wind controls the formation and development of sand dunes.Therefore,understanding the wind regimes is necessary in sand dune research.In this study,we combined the wind data from 2017 to 2019 at four meteorological st...Wind controls the formation and development of sand dunes.Therefore,understanding the wind regimes is necessary in sand dune research.In this study,we combined the wind data from 2017 to 2019 at four meteorological stations(Cherigele and Wuertabulage stations in the lake basins,and Yikeri and Sumujilin stations on the top of sand dunes)in the hinterland of the Badain Jaran Desert in China,with high resolution Google Earth images to analyze the correlation between the wind energy environments and dune morphology.The results of data analysis indicated that both the wind direction and sand drift intensity exhibited notable spatial and temporal variations.The highest level of wind activity was observed in spring.Northwesterly and northeasterly winds were the dominant in the Badain Jaran Desert.At the Cherigele,Wuertabulage,and Yikeri stations,the drift potential(DP)was below 200.00 vector units(VU).The wind energy environments in most areas could be classified as low-energy environments.The resultant drift direction differed at different stations and in different seasons,but the overall direction was mainly the southeast.The resultant drift potential(RDP)/DP ratio was greater than 0.30 in most parts of the study area,suggesting that the wind regimes mainly exhibited unimodal or bimodal characteristics.Differences between the thermodynamic properties and the unique landscape settings of lakes and sand dunes could alter the local circulation and intensify the complexity of the wind regimes.The wind regimes were weaker in the lake basins than on the top of sand dunes.Transverse dunes were the most dominant types of sand dunes in the study area,and the wind regimes at most stations were consistent with sand dune types.Wind was thus the main dynamic factor affecting the formation of sand dunes in the Badain Jaran Desert BJD.The results of this study are important for understanding the relationship between the wind regimes and aeolian landforms of the dune field in the deserts.展开更多
The low frequency oscillation in both hemispheres and its possible role in the dust weather storm events over North China in 2002 are analyzed as a case study. Results show that the Aleutian Low is linked with the Cir...The low frequency oscillation in both hemispheres and its possible role in the dust weather storm events over North China in 2002 are analyzed as a case study. Results show that the Aleutian Low is linked with the Circumpolar Vortex in the Southern Hemisphere on a 30-60-day oscillation, with a weak Circumpolar Vortex tending to deepen the Aleutian Low which may be helpful for the generation of dust storm events. The possible mechanism behind this is the inter-hemispheric interaction of the mean meridional circulation, with the major variability over East Asia. The zonal mean westerly wind at high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in the upper level troposphere may lead that of the Northern Hemisphere, which then impacts the local circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, the low frequency oscillation teleconnection is one possible linkage in the coupling between the Southern Hemisphere circulation and dust events over North China. However, the interannual variation of the low frequency oscillation is unclear.展开更多
In this paper, the evolution of intraseasonal oscillation over the South China Sea and tropical western Pacific area and its effect to the summer rainfall in the southern China are studied based on the ECMWF data and ...In this paper, the evolution of intraseasonal oscillation over the South China Sea and tropical western Pacific area and its effect to the summer rainfall in the southern China are studied based on the ECMWF data and TBB data) analyses. A very low-frequency waves exist in the tropics and play an important role in dominating intraseasonal oscillation and lead to special seasonal variation of intraseasonal oscillation over the South China Sea/tropical western Pacific area. The intraseasonal oscillation (convection) over the South China Sea and tropical western Pacific area is closely related to the summer rainfall (convection) in the southern China. Their relationship seems to be a seesaw feature, and this relationship resulting from the different pattern of convection in those two regions is caused by the differnt type of local meridional circulation.展开更多
Oasis is a special geographic landscape among the vast desert/Gobi in Northwest China (NWC). The surface sensitive heat flux and latent heat flux at Zhangye Oasis during 1 to 11 August 1991 are simulated using the NCA...Oasis is a special geographic landscape among the vast desert/Gobi in Northwest China (NWC). The surface sensitive heat flux and latent heat flux at Zhangye Oasis during 1 to 11 August 1991 are simulated using the NCAR nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5 Version 3. The horizontal grid resolution is set as 1km. By comparing the simulation results with HEIFE observations, it is proved that the model can be used to simulate the surface energy and water mass exchange of arid and semiarid regions in NWC. Based on the above results, the influence of different oasis scales on the local atmospheric field near the ground surface, and the critical scale of oasis maintenance, in NWC are studied dynamically. The following conclusion is obtained: the local thermal circulation between the oasis and the desert/Gobi is formed in the oasis downstream if the oasis scale is larger than 4 km. This local thermal circulation between the oasis and the desert adjacent to the oasis helps to conserve water vapor over the oasis. At the same time, it transfers the abundant water vapor from the oasis into the desert/Gobi near to the oasis to supply relatively plentiful water vapor for desert crops to grow on the fringe of the oasis. So, it is advantageous for oasis extension. However, if the scale of the oasis is smaller than 4 km, it is not easy for the local thermal circulation between the oasis and the desert/Gobi to take shape. This study provides a new standpoint for oasis maintenance and development.展开更多
Several multi-scale numerical simulation experiments were carried out using the mesoscale modeling systems MM5V3.7 and WRFV2.2 for Greater Beijing to estimate the accuracy of WRF and MM5 in simulating the characterist...Several multi-scale numerical simulation experiments were carried out using the mesoscale modeling systems MM5V3.7 and WRFV2.2 for Greater Beijing to estimate the accuracy of WRF and MM5 in simulating the characteristics and variations of mesoscale local circulation in the atmospheric boundary layer of this area. We simulated the horizontal distribution and diurnal variations of temperature and wind fields near the ground and compared them with Automatic Weather System (AWS) data collected from 19 AWS stations in Beijing. Correlation and error analyses were also made. The modeling and statistical results showed that both WRF and MM5 model the temperature field near the ground significantly better than they model the wind field. The temperature field simulated by MM5 is more coincident than that of WRF with the AWS observation records, while WRF does better than MM5 in simulating the wind field, especially under the condition of gusty wind. Neither WRF nor MM5 can capture the fine structure of urban architectural complexity, which is the main error in the wind field simulation. Both models underestimate the land surface temperature at night and overestimate the temperature during the day. All the above results are supported by statistical analysis.展开更多
Meteorological measurements of the Meteor Crater Experiment(METCRAX) were used to analyze the characteristics of the thermally-induced flows over an enclosed crater(Arizona, USA). Despite its relatively small size, th...Meteorological measurements of the Meteor Crater Experiment(METCRAX) were used to analyze the characteristics of the thermally-induced flows over an enclosed crater(Arizona, USA). Despite its relatively small size, this crater acts as an effective wind shelter. Daytime upslope winds and nocturnal downslope flows are regularly observed on its west/east sidewalls. The times of diurnal wind-direction shift(i.e., around sunrise and sunset) were slightly mismatched between the sites based on the east and west sidewalls, owing to the crater's shadowing effects. Under conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, the nocturnal downslope flows prevail throughout the night, despite quite a low wind velocity near the surface. ?展开更多
Forecasts of the intense rainfall events are important for the disaster prevention and reduction in the Beijing-TianjinHebei region(BTHR). What are the common biases in the forecasts of intense rainfall in the current...Forecasts of the intense rainfall events are important for the disaster prevention and reduction in the Beijing-TianjinHebei region(BTHR). What are the common biases in the forecasts of intense rainfall in the current operational numerical models? What are the possible causes of model bias? In this study, intense rainfall events in the BTHR were categorized into two types: those mainly due to strong synoptic forcings(SSF) and those with weak synoptic forcings(WSF). The results showed that,the numerical forecasts tend to overestimate the frequency of intense rainfall events but underestimate the rainfall intensity. Of these, the overestimation of precipitation frequency mainly appeared in the mountainous areas in the afternoon. Compared with global models, high-resolution mesoscale models showed a notable improvement in forecasting the afternoon intense rainfall,while they all have an obvious bias in forecasting the nighttime rainfall. For the WSF type, both global model and mesoscale model have a low forecast skill, with large biases in subdaily propagation feature. The possible causes are related to a poor performance of the model in reproducing the local thermodynamical circulations and the dynamical processes in the planetary boundary layer. So, the biases in forecasting the WSF type intense rainfall showed notable features of nonlinearity, which made it really challenging to understand their physical processes and to improve the associated forecasts.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41030962)Program for Sci&Tech Innovation Team of Qinglan Project of Jiangsu Higher Educational Institutions
文摘In this study, locat circulations and their responses to land use and land cover (LULC) changes over the Yellow Mountains of China are examined by using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations of a selected case under weak-gradient synoptic conditions. The results show that mountain-valley breezes over the region are characterized by an intense upslope the northern slope during daytime. A convergence zone flow lasting for about 11 h (0600 1700 LST) along occurs at the mountain ridge and moves northwest- ward with time. During nighttime, wind directions are reversed, starting first at higher elevations. Three sensitivity experiments are conducted, in which the current land covers are replaced by grassland, mixed forest, and bare soil, respectively, while keeping the other model conditions identical to a control run. These sensitivity simulations are designed to represent the changes of LULC over the Yellow Mountains area during the past decades. The results show that changes in land cover could affect substantially land-surface and atmosphere interactions, the evolution of local circulations, and characteristics of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Significant differences are noted in horizontal winds, and sensible and latent heat fluxes. On the other hand, when the surface is covered by mixed forest, slight variations in local winds and surface variables are identified. The results appear to have important implications to urban planning and constructions as well as the transport of air pollutants over mountainous regions.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC,40975057)The Structure of Tibetan Heat Sources and Oscillation Properties in Conjunction with the Mechanism for the Heat Propagating and Influencing as a key project of the NSFC (40633018)Hadley Circulation Anomaly with Its relation to the Anomaly of Summer Climate in China (E3000008098005)
文摘The 1979-2001 ERA-40 monthly mean meridional winds are used to calculate the mass streamfunctions in the monsoon region (60-140° E) and Nio zone (160° E-120° W),with which the climate characteristics and intensity variation of the localized Hadley circulation (LHC) are analyzed over the two regions and the linkage of this LHC to Pacific SST is explored.Evidence suggests as follows.1) The climatological LHC is stronger in the monsoon than in the Nio zone,with its position in the former northward of the latter,especially in the summer half-year.The resulting difference is due mainly to the land-sea heterogeneous distribution and the existence of a cold pool in the equatorial eastern Pacific.2) The LHC experiences a distinct interannual variability in intensity and during 1979-2001 the LHC strength of the two regions changes broadly in an anti-phase manner.3) The LHC has its intensity associated closely with Pacific SST in such a way that its strength anomaly in the monsoon (Nio) band in January is correlated negatively (positively) with the SSTA over the all-Nio (1-4) zone (ANZ) in the equatorial middle and eastern Pacific but positively (negatively) correlated to SSTA in the C-shaped area that surrounds the ANZ.The pattern of July is in rough agreement with that of January,except for more feeble correlativity in July,especially over the monsoon region;4) The ENSO episode has different impacts on the LHC vigor in the two regions.With the occurrence of an El Nio,the LHC is weakened (strengthened) in the monsoon (Nio) region,and the reversal takes place during the La Nia year,with greater anomaly in the Nio area.
基金This study was supported by the National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences underGrant No. G1998040900-Part 1, and NS
文摘This paper investigates the dry climatology of Sahara and Northwest China deserts from the viewpoint of local meridional circulation with Xie and Arkin rainfall dada and NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data. Results show that there are very dry centers with annual rainfall less than 50 mm over these two deserts while the rainy seasons are very different. In the south part of Sahara desert center and Northwest China desert, over 70% rainfall takes place in June, July and August (JJA). While in the north part of Sahara, rainfall mainly concentrates in December, January and February (DJF). The local biosphere-radiation mechanism proposed by Charney cannot explain the climatology of such very dry centers. Neither can the monsoon-desert mechanism proposed by Rodwell and Hoskins do for the strongest descent center is much more northward than the driest center over Sahara in JJA. From the viewpoint of local meridional circulation, the dryness climatology of Sahara and Northwest China deserts is investigated and compared. It is shown that in DJF, descent of local meridional circulation dominates the two deserts and very dry climate is unavoidable although the relative wet season is weak over the northern part of Sahara due to Mediterranean climate. While in JJA, there is ascent over the two deserts especially over Northwest China. Such ascent can explain the rainy season in south part of Sahara and Northwest China deserts. However, it is the local meridional circulation that takes strong and dry northerly from higher latitudes. The northerly either takes little moisture to the centers or prevents deep and strong convection over the centers. Such local meridional circulation leads to the dry climatology over the two deserts.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41871021)the Desert and Glacier Field Scientific Observation and Research Station of Lanzhou University(lzujbky-2021-sp16)。
文摘Wind controls the formation and development of sand dunes.Therefore,understanding the wind regimes is necessary in sand dune research.In this study,we combined the wind data from 2017 to 2019 at four meteorological stations(Cherigele and Wuertabulage stations in the lake basins,and Yikeri and Sumujilin stations on the top of sand dunes)in the hinterland of the Badain Jaran Desert in China,with high resolution Google Earth images to analyze the correlation between the wind energy environments and dune morphology.The results of data analysis indicated that both the wind direction and sand drift intensity exhibited notable spatial and temporal variations.The highest level of wind activity was observed in spring.Northwesterly and northeasterly winds were the dominant in the Badain Jaran Desert.At the Cherigele,Wuertabulage,and Yikeri stations,the drift potential(DP)was below 200.00 vector units(VU).The wind energy environments in most areas could be classified as low-energy environments.The resultant drift direction differed at different stations and in different seasons,but the overall direction was mainly the southeast.The resultant drift potential(RDP)/DP ratio was greater than 0.30 in most parts of the study area,suggesting that the wind regimes mainly exhibited unimodal or bimodal characteristics.Differences between the thermodynamic properties and the unique landscape settings of lakes and sand dunes could alter the local circulation and intensify the complexity of the wind regimes.The wind regimes were weaker in the lake basins than on the top of sand dunes.Transverse dunes were the most dominant types of sand dunes in the study area,and the wind regimes at most stations were consistent with sand dune types.Wind was thus the main dynamic factor affecting the formation of sand dunes in the Badain Jaran Desert BJD.The results of this study are important for understanding the relationship between the wind regimes and aeolian landforms of the dune field in the deserts.
基金This research was jointly supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences key program under Crant KZCX3-SW-221the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.40125014 and 40475037.
文摘The low frequency oscillation in both hemispheres and its possible role in the dust weather storm events over North China in 2002 are analyzed as a case study. Results show that the Aleutian Low is linked with the Circumpolar Vortex in the Southern Hemisphere on a 30-60-day oscillation, with a weak Circumpolar Vortex tending to deepen the Aleutian Low which may be helpful for the generation of dust storm events. The possible mechanism behind this is the inter-hemispheric interaction of the mean meridional circulation, with the major variability over East Asia. The zonal mean westerly wind at high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in the upper level troposphere may lead that of the Northern Hemisphere, which then impacts the local circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, the low frequency oscillation teleconnection is one possible linkage in the coupling between the Southern Hemisphere circulation and dust events over North China. However, the interannual variation of the low frequency oscillation is unclear.
文摘In this paper, the evolution of intraseasonal oscillation over the South China Sea and tropical western Pacific area and its effect to the summer rainfall in the southern China are studied based on the ECMWF data and TBB data) analyses. A very low-frequency waves exist in the tropics and play an important role in dominating intraseasonal oscillation and lead to special seasonal variation of intraseasonal oscillation over the South China Sea/tropical western Pacific area. The intraseasonal oscillation (convection) over the South China Sea and tropical western Pacific area is closely related to the summer rainfall (convection) in the southern China. Their relationship seems to be a seesaw feature, and this relationship resulting from the different pattern of convection in those two regions is caused by the differnt type of local meridional circulation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.40233035,and 40075022the Innovative Project of the Chinese Academy Sciences (No.KZCX3-SW-329).
文摘Oasis is a special geographic landscape among the vast desert/Gobi in Northwest China (NWC). The surface sensitive heat flux and latent heat flux at Zhangye Oasis during 1 to 11 August 1991 are simulated using the NCAR nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5 Version 3. The horizontal grid resolution is set as 1km. By comparing the simulation results with HEIFE observations, it is proved that the model can be used to simulate the surface energy and water mass exchange of arid and semiarid regions in NWC. Based on the above results, the influence of different oasis scales on the local atmospheric field near the ground surface, and the critical scale of oasis maintenance, in NWC are studied dynamically. The following conclusion is obtained: the local thermal circulation between the oasis and the desert/Gobi is formed in the oasis downstream if the oasis scale is larger than 4 km. This local thermal circulation between the oasis and the desert adjacent to the oasis helps to conserve water vapor over the oasis. At the same time, it transfers the abundant water vapor from the oasis into the desert/Gobi near to the oasis to supply relatively plentiful water vapor for desert crops to grow on the fringe of the oasis. So, it is advantageous for oasis extension. However, if the scale of the oasis is smaller than 4 km, it is not easy for the local thermal circulation between the oasis and the desert/Gobi to take shape. This study provides a new standpoint for oasis maintenance and development.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40875004)Urban Meteorology Scientific Research Fund Program of the Institute of Beijing Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. UMRF200702)+2 种基金Public Welfare Special Fund Program (Meteorology) of China Scientific and Technological Ministry (Grant No. GYHY200806020)National Science and Technology Sustain Program (Grant No. 2008BAC37B00)Central Public Welfare Special Fund Program for the Institute and Higher Education (Grant No. IUMKY200701)
文摘Several multi-scale numerical simulation experiments were carried out using the mesoscale modeling systems MM5V3.7 and WRFV2.2 for Greater Beijing to estimate the accuracy of WRF and MM5 in simulating the characteristics and variations of mesoscale local circulation in the atmospheric boundary layer of this area. We simulated the horizontal distribution and diurnal variations of temperature and wind fields near the ground and compared them with Automatic Weather System (AWS) data collected from 19 AWS stations in Beijing. Correlation and error analyses were also made. The modeling and statistical results showed that both WRF and MM5 model the temperature field near the ground significantly better than they model the wind field. The temperature field simulated by MM5 is more coincident than that of WRF with the AWS observation records, while WRF does better than MM5 in simulating the wind field, especially under the condition of gusty wind. Neither WRF nor MM5 can capture the fine structure of urban architectural complexity, which is the main error in the wind field simulation. Both models underestimate the land surface temperature at night and overestimate the temperature during the day. All the above results are supported by statistical analysis.
基金supported by Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05110104)support of the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. LAPC-KF-2009-02)
文摘Meteorological measurements of the Meteor Crater Experiment(METCRAX) were used to analyze the characteristics of the thermally-induced flows over an enclosed crater(Arizona, USA). Despite its relatively small size, this crater acts as an effective wind shelter. Daytime upslope winds and nocturnal downslope flows are regularly observed on its west/east sidewalls. The times of diurnal wind-direction shift(i.e., around sunrise and sunset) were slightly mismatched between the sites based on the east and west sidewalls, owing to the crater's shadowing effects. Under conditions of relatively weak synoptic forcing, the nocturnal downslope flows prevail throughout the night, despite quite a low wind velocity near the surface. ?
基金supported by the National Key R&D Project (Grant No.2018YFC1507606)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41505079, 42075154, 41475051 and 42030611)。
文摘Forecasts of the intense rainfall events are important for the disaster prevention and reduction in the Beijing-TianjinHebei region(BTHR). What are the common biases in the forecasts of intense rainfall in the current operational numerical models? What are the possible causes of model bias? In this study, intense rainfall events in the BTHR were categorized into two types: those mainly due to strong synoptic forcings(SSF) and those with weak synoptic forcings(WSF). The results showed that,the numerical forecasts tend to overestimate the frequency of intense rainfall events but underestimate the rainfall intensity. Of these, the overestimation of precipitation frequency mainly appeared in the mountainous areas in the afternoon. Compared with global models, high-resolution mesoscale models showed a notable improvement in forecasting the afternoon intense rainfall,while they all have an obvious bias in forecasting the nighttime rainfall. For the WSF type, both global model and mesoscale model have a low forecast skill, with large biases in subdaily propagation feature. The possible causes are related to a poor performance of the model in reproducing the local thermodynamical circulations and the dynamical processes in the planetary boundary layer. So, the biases in forecasting the WSF type intense rainfall showed notable features of nonlinearity, which made it really challenging to understand their physical processes and to improve the associated forecasts.