Reforms on China＇s Fiscal System and Its Impact on Local Government Behavior

The fiscal system is an important part of national economic management and deals with the division of financial responsibility and power, regulates and defines the fiscal activities among different levels of governments. The changes in economic system and economic structure decide the changes of fiscal function and fiscal structure, which results in the changes in intergovernmental distribution form and local government behavior. This paper takes a look at the stages of China＇s fiscal reform process and the impacts on local government behavior, and tries to find measures for perfecting the fiscal system reform to optimize local government behavior and guarantee a healthy national economy.

Strategic interaction among local governments, fiscal spending competition and regional economic growth

Using a spatial econometric model, this paper investigates strategic interaction among provincial governments regarding expenditures, the mechanism behind expenditures interaction and their effects on economic growth in China. Our conclusion is as follows: Significant strategic interaction exists among provincial governments regarding expenditures mainly owing to fiscal competition mechanism in China, and expenditures interaction has changed significantly since tax sharing system reform, which has had positive effects on regional economic growth. This conclusion has significant implications for the optimization of public functions, size and structure of local governments in China.

Local Government Behavior behind China's Excessive Investment under Decentralization——Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on Manufacturing Sector

This paper investigates the effect of local government intervention on capital deepening of manufacturing sector by using interprovincial panel data sets of 28 Chinese provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions between 1994 and 2011.Theoretical research indicates that as a transitional economy,China's local government intervention in corporate investment behaviors will cause excessive investment,thus bringing about a long-term and sustained tendency of capital deepening in manufacturing sector.Empirical test further discovers that in a certain range,the phenomenon of capital deepening in manufacturing sector is not an inevitable result endogenous to economic development and technology progress,and that investment behaviors of manufacturing sector are largely subject to the external institutional environment.Fiscal decentralization has indeed promoted capital deepening of manufacturing sector.Financial credit expansion and interventions in SOEs are major instruments for local governments to intervene in the capital deepening of manufacturing sector and such an influence is particularly significant for China's central,western and northeast regions.Therefore,clarifying government functions and improving local government performance review mechanism are of great significance to the healthy development of China's manufacturing sector.

Decentralization, Supervision, and Chinese Local Government Debt

Decentralization can alter the incentive structure of local governments and one outcome of this is debt accumulation. Based on the “Province-Managing-County” pilot policy, a fiscal decentralization reform devolving fiscal power from the prefecture-level city to the county level, we assess the impact of fiscal decentralization on local government debt using a difference-in-differences model with a unique county-level dataset from 2011 to 2019. According to the study findings, the “Province-Managing-County” reform resulted in an average increase of 5.758 percent in the local government debt ratio across the pilot counties. Mechanism analyses suggest that this may have arisen from changes in the incentive structure, including external pressures from government assessments and internal developmental needs for promotion, leading to a rise in expenditure pressures on local governments. The role of supervision in mitigating the impact of fiscal decentralization on debt growth was also demonstrated, indicating that an appropriate supervision mechanism must be in place in conjunction with a decentralization policy.

The Governance of Local Government Debt from the Perspective of Fiscal and Financial Coordination:Evidence from Financial Markets

Theories based on fiscal guarantees cannot explain either the fact that the continuously decline in local fiscal resources has not significantly increased local government financing costs,or the fact that local government debt has been rising at a time of strict central government regulation.The theoretical and empirical analyses provided in this study show that it is the financial resources under local government control that provide the implicit guarantee for local government debt.Such financial resources lower local governments’financing costs but have the potential to lead to the contagion of financial risk through local government to the financial sector.Therefore,to look at the question solely in terms of either fiscal or financial sector guarantees will not be sufficient to resolve the problem of local government debt.The central government needs to coordinate fiscal and financial policies under a joint management framework in a way that rationally disperses and resolves the risks attached to local government debt and avoids the assumption of excessive risk by either sector.At the same time,close attention should be paid to local financial institutions’asset quality and their money market reputation to avoid the risk of contagion from local financial institutions to local public finance.

Land finance of Chinese local governments:formation and distortionary effects on urbanization

This paper explores the distortionary effects of the 1994 reform of the system of tax revenue sharing between the central and local Chinese governments and its interaction with the incentives for local officials to promote local economic growth. One of the major distortions was to encourage local governments to rely on land finance in their efforts to promote urbanization and growth. This paper analyzes the causes and effects of increasing dependence on land finance and provides constructive suggestions for solutions to the problems that over reliance on land finance have generated, including their distortionary impacts on the urbanization process.

Vertical Fiscal Imbalance,Transfer Payment and Local Government Governance

Accelerating the construction of modern fiscal and tax system helps not only free local governments from the shackle of the“competition for growth”development model,but also improve the governance capacity of local governments and realize the good governance of the country in the long term.Firstly,based on the typical fact of Chinese-style fiscal decentralization,this paper theoretically interprets the multiple channels and influencing mechanisms among vertical fiscal imbalance,transfer payment and local government governance.Secondly,it constructs a comprehensive index system to measure the governance capacity of local governments.The result shows that local government governance is relatively low in capacity and slow in improvement,and displays obvious regional heterogeneity.Then,the paper chooses structure and scale of transfer payment as mediator to construct the panel simultaneous equation model,and uses the three-stage least squares estimation(3SLS)for empirical investigation.The study finds that first,both the scale and structure of transfer payment may significantly affect local government governance,but the direction of the effects is opposite;second,the intensified vertical fiscal imbalance and the increase of transfer payment in scale can significantly inhibit local government governance,but the optimization of transfer payment in structure can significantly improve the governance;third,vertical fiscal imbalance not only directly inhibits the improvement of local government governance,but indirectly impedes it through the scale and structure of transfer payment.

Assessing Local Government Debt Risks in China： A Case Study of Local Government Financial Vehicles

Strong credit expansion in China after the recent global financial crisis has brought local government financial vehicles （LGFV） into the spotlight. Rapid growth of LGFV has triggered concern about local government indebtedness, banks＇ asset quality and, more broadly, China＇s medium-term financial stability and sovereign risk. This paper constructs a unique frm-level dataset to evaluate the country ＂s local government debt. We find an uneven distribution of LGFV, which are concentrated in the coastal areas, and a deterioration of their debt repaying ability from 2010 to 2012. We use principal component analysis （PCA ） along with multivariate discriminate analysis （MDA） to identify the credit risk of LGFV based on conventional financial variables as well as local governments ＇fiscal status. We also estimate the safe boundaries of debt bearing at the provincial government level. The estimations reveal more severe local government debt risks in the middle-western provinces and higher risks associated with LGFV at the municipal and county levels. Although it is very unlikely that there will be a national debt crisis in China, the high risk of LGFV should be noted and effectively controlled by improving the fiscal transparency of local governments and reforming the fiscal system.

Structural design and performance analysis of China’s Local Government Financing Vehicles

In this paper,we investigate the reasons for the establishment and operation models of China’s Local Government Financing Vehicles(LGFVs).We also outline the current literature on the structural arrangement and the developments of LGFVs.Moreover,we employ the empirical analysis to examine the driv-ing factors of the financial performance of LGFVs.Using 1,042 LGFVs that issued debt securities during the period 2011–2016,we find that the financial performance of LGFVs is positively asso-ciated with local tax revenues,local education levels,local saving deposits,and firm size but negatively associated with local gov-ernment spending and firm leverage ratios.Based on our empir-ical findings,we finally propose policy recommendations for the establishment of relevant investment and financing platforms.

Challenges and Countermeasures for the Sustainable Development of Local Finance under the Impact of COVID-19

In recent years,the risks and challenges at home and abroad have increased significantly,and the downward pressure on the economy has increased,especially the implementation of larger-scale tax and fee cuts under the proactive fiscal policy,while the rigidity of local fiscal expenditure has not been reduced,and the sustainable development of local finance is facing greater challenges.In particular,the COVID-19 pandemic has had a serious impact on the already stressed local finance,which has led to the intensifi ed contradiction between local fiscal revenue and expenditure.This paper analyzes the challenges to the sustainable development of local finance under the impact of COVID-19 from four angles:the greater economic downward pressure combined with larger-scale tax and fee cuts,the fiscal relationship between the central and local governments,land finance,and transfer payment,then puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.

Disclosure of government financial information and the cost of local government's debt financing——Empirical evidence from provincial investment bonds for urban construction

China's slowing economic growth and rapid urbanization have made local government debt financing a significant issue.This study uses a sample of China's provincial government data for the 2006–2012 period to examine the effect of the disclosure of financial information by local governments on their debt financing costs.The results show that financial information disclosure is conducive to public supervision and enhances government credibility,leading to a decrease in the cost of debt financing.Furthermore,increased government economic intervention increases the strength of the association between financial information disclosure and the cost of debt financing.Increased government audit prevention function weakens the strength of the association between financial information disclosure and the cost of debt financing.

Local Development Fee in Slovak Republic

With the advent of tax and expenditure limitations, state and local governments have been searching for new sources of revenue to maintain or expand public services. The need for new sources of revenue has been particularly acute in localities that have experienced rapid growth. The new act No. 447 of November 20, 2015 on Local Development Fee was approved in Slovakia. The Act comes into force on November 1, 2016. The paper points out possible problems associated with the introduction of the local development fee abroad and discribes the situation in Slovakia.

财政分权、地方政府行为与经济绿色转型

依据2009—2019年省级面板数据,运用空间计量模型和中介效应模型,考量财政分权对经济绿色转型的影响。结果显示:财政分权促进本地经济绿色转型作用显著,但会阻碍相邻地区经济绿色转型进程。地方政府行为在二者之间发挥着中介作用,财政分权主要通过促进地方政府合理竞争、提高地方政府财政科技投入强度促进经济绿色转型,提高财政分权程度会强化地方保护主义行为,但地方保护主义行为对经济绿色转型的影响不显著。

政府债务预算硬约束与地方财政可持续性提升

地方政府债务风险的不断积累已成为地方财政可持续性的最大阻碍。以新《预算法》实施后,地方政府债务管理的“开前门”和“关后门”两个阶段改革为准自然实验,分析了政府债务预算硬约束对地方财政可持续性的影响。研究发现:地方政府债务管理的两阶段改革都对地方财政可持续性具有显著的正向提升影响;从作用机制来看,“开前门”和“关后门”阶段改革分别通过财政收支巩固和债务规模控制来发挥对地方财政可持续性的有效作用;异质性分析来看,地方政府举债行为激励较弱和财政监管力度较高的地方,政府债务预算硬约束对地方财政可持续性的正向效应会更加显著。研究结果为推进债务预算硬约束来防范地方政府债务风险和提升地方财政可持续性提供了政策启示。

财政分权、地方政府创新偏好与区域创新能力

本文基于2007-2021年我国30个省份的面板数据,通过建立系统GMM模型实证分析财政分权对区域创新能力的影响。研究表明:财政分权显著促进区域创新能力,以地方政府创新偏好为中介变量,财政分权能通过促进地方政府创新偏好,进而正向影响区域创新能力。分地区考察发现,财政分权对区域创新能力的影响存在地区差异性。在东中部地区,财政分权会显著促进区域创新能力;在西部地区,财政分权与区域创新能力的关系并不显著。

数字金融对地方政府债务的影响研究——基于省级面板数据的实证检验

本文基于2015—2021年中国省级面板数据实证研究数字金融对地方政府债务的影响,发现两者呈现出显著为负的非线性关系,数字金融的发展对地方政府优化自身债务、降低系统性金融风险具有积极作用。采用系统聚类将31个省(区、市)分为发展中、次发达、发达地区三大组别,发现数字金融对地方政府债务的抑制作用在发展中地区表现得最为显著。市场化水平在数字金融抑制地方政府债务过程中具有正向调节作用,特别是当市场化水平跨越一定的门槛值以后,数字金融对地方政府债务的影响显著增强。在此基础上,提出了数字金融背景下分类施策缓解各级地方政府债务问题的相关建议。

基层财政治理、医疗竞争与居民健康

推动优质医疗资源下沉农村是巩固脱贫成果、推动乡村振兴的重要落脚点。财政运行紧平衡是各级财政当下及未来一段时期需要面对的现状,科学合理的基层财政治理模式是提高财政对医疗卫生投入效益的制度性保障。本文以“乡财县管”改革为准自然实验,探讨了财政运行紧平衡背景下的医疗卫生市场与居民健康水平。研究发现:(1)“乡财县管”改革显著改善了改革县居民的健康状况;(2)改革后,随着财政压力的增加以及财政对医疗机构补贴力度的下降,医疗市场的准入门槛以及医疗服务的平均价格显著降低,医疗可及性以及医疗服务供需匹配程度得到改善,最终改革地区居民健康状况得到显著改善;(3)异质性研究发现,“乡财县管”改革的健康改善作用,主要体现在农村居民群体中。本文为我国如何在财政紧平衡下推动优质医疗资源下沉、提升基层医疗服务能力提供了参考与借鉴。

地方政府债务与企业投资“脱实向虚”

如何理解地方政府债务在国民经济发展中的影响作用是当前学术界与政府部门关注的焦点议题。本文采用2009—2018年中国上市公司数据,基于融资结构视角实证考察了地方政府债务对企业投资的影响效应和作用机制。研究发现:第一,地方政府债务扩张导致了非国有上市公司实体投资下降和金融投资上升,而对国有上市公司投资没有显著影响;第二,这一影响具有明显的地区、行业和企业个体异质性;第三,在地方政府债务攀升下非国有上市公司的融资结构变化,是导致企业投资“脱实向虚”的潜在影响机制;第四,从发展角度来看,金融投资收益率会随着地方政府债务增加而下降,因此长期持续增加金融投资不利于企业经营发展和国民经济运行,而政府债务资金投向基建民生领域能够缓解实体投资下滑。最后,根据研究结论,本文提出了具有针对性的政策建议。

分税制改革视域下的地方政府债务治理:理论辨析与路径展望

本文通过回顾分税制改革的历史沿革、制度特征和学术争鸣,试图厘清分税制改革对地方政府债务治理的影响机制和改革路径。本文认为,分税制改革有效发挥了中央和地方“两个积极性”,初步构建起同社会主义市场经济体制相适应的分权治理框架。从影响效果来看,分税制改革引领的“双重激励”将地方政府行政动员能力和市场增进能力有效结合起来,激励地方政府举债筹资建设了大量市政基础设施;但侧重“事上”而非“安下”的责任约束机制也导致地方政府债务风险不断衍生泛化、变相积聚。本文为推进高质量发展背景下的分税制改革和地方政府债务治理、构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制提供了财权划分、事权配置、行政监察、市场约束等改革战略取向。

完善政府债务管理制度:问题与思路

政府适度举债具有促进经济增长、平抑经济周期波动的作用,但如果管理制度不完善,债务超出财政承受能力,则会制约经济可持续发展。完善政府债务管理制度是进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的关键一环。历经近十年的地方政府性债务治理,我国取得了防范地方政府隐性债务风险的显著成效,但仍然没有将其根除。究其原因,是因为地方政府财权事权不完全匹配、地方经济发展思路尚未转变、显性债务管理体制不健全、缺少隐性债务化解的长效机制等财政根本性、体制性的矛盾没有得到真正化解。进一步全面深化改革应当针对政府债务管理制度的核心问题,通过对地方政府债务的全口径监测监管、加快地方融资平台的转型改革、健全地方政府专项债券管理体制等措施,建立防范化解隐性债务风险的长效机制,加强财政可持续性,进而推动经济高质量发展。