Analysis on Formation Reason of a Local Heavy Rainstorm in Linyi Area

[Objective] The research aimed to study formation reason of a local heavy rainstorm process in Linyi from night on August 3 to early morning on 4th, 2010. [Method] Based on MICAPS weather chart, actual situation data of NECP analysis field, data of automatic encryption station and Doppler radar product, a local heavy rainstorm and extra heavy rainstorm process in Linyi from night on August 3 to early morning on 4th, 2010 was detailedly analyzed from weather background, meso- and micro-scale characteristics, physical mechanisms of occurrences and developments of meso and micro-scale systems. The formation reason of heavy rainstorm process was discussed. Moreover, we tried to find some occurrence rules of short-time strong precipitation. [Result] The local heavy rainstorm process had large short-time rainfall and obvious local characteristics. The main influence systems were subtropical high, westerly trough, meso- and small-scale ground low pressures. It was affected by many systems which had different scales and heights. The up-cold-down-warm unstable stratification accumulated a large number of unstable energy, which was basic condition of strong precipitation occurrence. It was convergence shear line at the bottom layer of airspace. The vertical shear and turbosphere of deep southwest-northwest-easterly airflow were at airspace. The common effect of up and down systems triggered generation of updraft, and made unstable energy release. For the release of unstable energy, after northwest airflow was cut off, the updraft made southwest airflow develop upward. It linked with easterly wave to form new vertical shear, which was a reason of long duration of strong precipitation. The southwest airflow at the edge of subtropical high was water vapor source of precipitation process, which provided sufficient water vapor supply for generation of heavy rainstorm. The system which was developing and strengthening would make the moving speed of system slow down. Then, the rainfall increased. It was a reason of long duration of strong precipitation. [Conclusion] The research accumulated certain experience for forecast work in future.

Comparative Analysis of Two Local Heavy Rainstorms in Northwestern Shandong

[Objective] The aim was to comparatively analyze two local heavy rainstroms in northwestern Shandong Province, China. [Method] Based on the observation data from automatic weather station, sounding data and NCEP reanalysis data, two local heavy rainstorms at night on July 18 and August 9 in 2010 in northwestern Shandong was comparatively analyzed from the aspects of circulation situation, influence system and physical field, and the internal structure and possible formation mechanism of local heavy rain in Shandong were discussed further. [Result] The two rainstorms occurred in the forepart of southwest air in front of 500 hPa trough, and there was stronger atmospheric baroclinicity in the front zone near 850 hPa. The two rainstorms were affected by southwest warm and humid airflow at low level and shear line at 850 hPa; rainstorm often appeared in intensive area behind θse high-energy tongue, and rainstorm area corresponded with the area with high vertical speed well. From the differences, during the first rainstorm, there was obvious southwest low level jet and shear line at 700 hPa, and the area with high precipitation was located in the south of warm shear line at 700 hPa; during the latter rainstorm, there was no obvious southwest low level jet and shear line, and the area with high precipitation was located in the region between two high pressures. [Conclusion] The study could provide valuable thinking for the forecast of this kind of rainstorm in the future.

Characteristics of Cloud-to-ground Lightning during a Local Rainstorm in Meizhou City

Based on cloud-to-ground lightning data of lightning location system,Doppler radar data,and precipitation data of regional automatic weather stations,the characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning during a local rainstorm on June 4,2016 in Meizhou City were analyzed. The results showed that the spatial distribution of cloud-to-ground lightning from 14： 00 to 20： 00 on June 4,2016 in Meizhou City had obvious local characteristics,and the proportion of negative lightning was larger than that of positive lightning（ only 16. 8%）. The concentration period of positive lightning coincided with that of cloud-to-ground lightning. The peak of proportion of positive lightning lagged behind the peak of cloud-to-ground lightning,and appeared in the late period of thunderstorm disappearance. The dense area of cloud-to-ground lightning and the area with heavy rainfall coincided with the area with strong radar echoes. Doppler weather radar data had the feature of the headwind zone,strong combined reflectivity,vertical height of strong echoes,high echo top,and fast radial movement. The peak of cloud-to-ground lightning appeared one hour earlier than that of precipitation. There was no significant correlation between the frequency of cloud-to-ground lightning and precipitation. The peak of negative lightning corresponded to that of positive lightning,and cloud-to-ground lightning ended earlier than rainfall. After the peak of precipitation,convective system rapidly weakened and disappeared. Precipitation and the frequency of cloud-to-ground lightning fluctuated frequently during the whole process. The jumps and peaks of negative lightning were indicative of rainfall changes.

Analysis of a Local Rainstorm in Central Inner Mongolia

Based on conventional observation data,satellite cloud image data and new generation Doppler radar data,the local rainstorm weather situation and physical quantities in Ulanqab City from 08:00 to 20:00 on June 24,2019 were analyzed by means of synoptic methods.The results show that the local rainstorm was caused by the forward trough system and the convergence of warm and cold air,and triggered by the low-level jet and the surface convergence line.The splitting and merging of cloud clusters in satellite cloud images and strong radar echoes had a good guiding effect on short-term heavy precipitation.

Localization method of subsynchronous oscillation source based on high-resolution time-frequency distribution image and CNN

The penetration of new energy sources such as wind power is increasing,which consequently increases the occurrence rate of subsynchronous oscillation events.However,existing subsynchronous oscillation source-identification methods primarily analyze fixed-mode oscillations and rarely consider time-varying features,such as frequency drift,caused by the random volatility of wind farms when oscillations occur.This paper proposes a subsynchronous oscillation sourcelocalization method that involves an enhanced short-time Fourier transform and a convolutional neural network(CNN).First,an enhanced STFT is performed to secure high-resolution time-frequency distribution(TFD)images from the measured data of the generation unit ports.Next,these TFD images are amalgamated to form a subsynchronous oscillation feature map that serves as input to the CNN to train the localization model.Ultimately,the trained CNN model realizes the online localization of subsynchronous oscillation sources.The effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed method are validated via multimachine system models simulating forced and natural oscillation events using the Power Systems Computer Aided Design platform.Test results show that the proposed method can localize subsynchronous oscillation sources online while considering unpredictable fluctuations in wind farms,thus providing a foundation for oscillation suppression in practical engineering scenarios.

Doppler Radar Analysis on A Local Heavy Precipitation in Jieyang Area of Guangdong

By using Doppler weather radar data,the meso-scale characteristics of extremely heavy rainstorm process which happened suddenly in Jieyang urban area on July 31,2008 were analyzed.The results showed that the radar echo only needed 20 minutes from the generation to the strong echo which quickly strengthened above 50 dBz.The storm center went down south and went up north near Jieyang City all the time.The component which moved eastward was very tiny,and the heavy precipitation echo stagnated.In this heavy precipitation process,the characteristics types of radial velocity which were favorable to the generation and development of heavy precipitation echo appeared alternately each other.The radial velocity's characteristics types were the first type headwind zone,the second type headwind zone,meso-scale convergence type and cyclonic convergence and so on.Thus,this heavy precipitation process which broke the record happened.The analyses showed that the headwind zone which developed vigorously and the convergence which had influx and outflux airflow in the vertical direction of headwind zone made obvious contributions to the precipitation.

Irregular Information of the Rainstorm in a Continuous Rainy Weather

[Objective] The research aimed to analyze irregular information of the local rainstorm process (during 5-6 September,2009) in autumn continuous rainy weather in north Shaanxi. [Method] Based on V-3θ chart, routine observation data provided by Micaps system, satellite cloud chart and data at 100 automatic meteorological stations of Shaanxi, for rainstorm process in autumn continuous rainy weather in north Shaanxi during 4-10 September, 2009, by using structure analysis method, irregular information in local rainstorm weather was analyzed. [Result] In whole precipitation process, atmospheric structure in rainstorm zone presented obvious evolution process. Before precipitation, typical atmospheric structure information of the sudden convective weather appeared. Obvious ultra-low temperature structure appeared at 200 hPa, and consistent clockwise rotation flow was at vertical wind field. Meanwhile, water vapor was sufficient, and unstable energy existed at low layer. Structure characteristic of the convective strong precipitation appeared by advancing for 12h. As precipitation weakened, unstable energy was released, and ultra-low temperature disappeared. [Conclusion] The research provided some thoughts for the forecast of such weather process.

Study on Design Rainstorm Profile in Liuzhou City Based on Pilgrim &Cordery Method

Liuzhou City is located in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China. It has a warm and rainy climate and belongs to the middle subtropical monsoon climate. It is a rainstorm and flood-prone area. The work of flood drainage and waterlogging prevention is very important. The “minute to minute” rainfall process data of Liuzhou National Meteorological Observation Station from 1975 to 2014 and the Pilgrim & Cordery method were used to estimate the short-time design rainstorm profile of Liuzhou City, and the profiles of the rainfall lasting for 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, and 180 min were obtained. The research shows that the same rain duration and different recurrence period conditions are consistent with the rainstorm profile. The rainfall duration of 30, 60, 90, 120, and 180 min generally shows single-peak rainstorm profile, and the rainfall duration of 150 min shows double-peak rainstorm profile. Most peaks of each short-time design rainstorm profile are at or ahead of the 1/3 part of the entire rainfall process. During the same recurrence period, the rainfall in peak period fluctuated with the increase of the duration, and the intensity of rainfall increased with the prolonging of the recurrence period.

2021年9月14—15日中卫市局地暴雨天气成因分析

【目的】分析2021年9月14—15日中卫市局地暴雨天气过程的形成机理,为中卫市夏季暴雨降水预报工作提供参考。【方法】利用常规地面观测资料、Micpas地面高空形势场、高空湿度、TlnP资料、欧洲中心再分析数据集ECMWF ERA5的逐时再分析资料,对此次暴雨天气进行分析。【结果】584 dagpm线从13日20时起北抬,14日20时抬至最高,此后开始南压,雨带南移,15日20时西西伯利亚槽移出中卫。200 hPa高空急流、500 hPa槽、700 hPa槽及低空急流、850 hPa低涡切变、地面冷锋相互配合,台风外围来自南海和黄海的暖湿空气持续向北输送,高低层湿度条件整体较好,湿层深厚;K指数稳定在33~34℃之间,低层有暖平流,中层有冷平流,有一定的不稳定能量;动力条件较好,南北地区在不同的时段出现了强上升运动中心,北部地区对流层中低层为强辐合区,高层辐散,上升运动较强,正涡度区较为深厚。【结论】此次降水持续时间长、范围广、雨强小、累计雨量大,高空槽有明显的后倾结构,以稳定性降水为主,上升运动中心与湿层深厚区配合较好,产生了此次局地暴雨天气。

北京局地暴雨过程中近地层辐合线的形成与作用

由近地面层辐合线(切变线)引发的局地暴雨是北京夏季一种较为常见的天气类型。利用常规气象资料、数值预报产品难以分析预报出引发局地暴雨的中小尺度系统、进而不能正确把握降雨出现的时间、落区和量值的大小。本文利用北京S波段多普勒天气雷达(CINRAD-SA)监测资料、风廓线仪、微波辐射计等新型探测资料,以及北京加密自动站观测资料,并结合常规地面、高空探测资料,对2009年7月13日北京一次典型局地暴雨天气过程分析强降雨发生前期的天气形势背景、温湿条件、环境大气对流稳定性、风垂直分布等演变特征,分析诊断出造成局地暴雨的诱发系统主要是近地层切变线,研究了该系统与雷达降水回波形成、发展并造成强降雨过程的关系,探讨了近地面层辐合线与降雨强度及落区的关系,对探测资料如何运用于预报业务做了有益的尝试。

北京地区2004年7月10日局地暴雨过程中的波动分析

2004年7月10日(简称04710)北京出现了局地暴雨天气。这次暴雨的落区主要集中在城区,由于降雨时间短、雨量集中,给北京城区的部分基础设施和城市交通造成了极大的负面影响。这也是近十几年来罕见的一次北京城区暴雨。针对这次局地暴雨天气过程,利用雷达、自动气象站、常规气象站资料等,结合天气学分析和重力波指数分析方法对暴雨的触发机制和落区进行了研究。分析显示:04710暴雨是一次中小尺度天气过程,其中由重力波所激发的小尺度波动对强降雨的产生及其时空分布起主导作用;重力波发生、发展条件与判据的分析显示,强垂直风切变使平均气流中的部分动能转化为扰动动能,促使重力波的产生与传播;重力波通过积雨云团时加快了积雨云的发展,加大了云内上升速度,使不稳定能量得以释放,进而触发强降水;天气学分析指出,中层冷空气入侵造成的垂直风切变是触发重力波的主要原因;雷达回波图显示出强降雨的产生、发展及其分布形态与小尺度重力波的分布和传输相吻合。

对流层低层偏东风对北京局地暴雨的作用

本文利用风廓线仪、地面自动站观测资料及NCAR/NCEP1°×1°分析资料等,对北京地区两次局地暴雨天气过程的对流层低层偏东风进行了对比分析研究,重点分析了浅薄和深厚两次偏东风的形成机制、偏东风的垂直结构特征和温、湿特性,以及偏东风在北京局地暴雨中的作用等。主要结论如下:(1)浅薄偏东风活动在距地面高度500m以下,水平尺度约250km,时间尺度约12h,地面风速平均约1m/s;深厚偏东风活动在距地面高度3000m以下,水平尺度大于600km,持续时间大于24h,地面风速平均约4m/s。(2)浅薄偏东风由边界层内浅薄的次天气尺度暖性低涡引起,深厚偏东风由天气尺度地面暖性低压倒槽的发展引起。(3)偏东风具有高相当位温的属性,其源地是北京东部或东南部的暖湿气团;在暖湿偏东风上方800～600hPa存在干冷空气活动,形成了有利的对流不稳定层结;浅薄偏东风暖湿能量的局地集中特征更为显著,而深厚偏东风在水汽和能量的持续输送方面,以及与500hPa偏西风形成较强的、有利于强对流风暴发展的低层垂直风切变方面作用更为显著。(4)浅薄偏东风在时间和空间上与近地面层辐合中心对应较好,与中高空辐散有较好配合,动力作用明显,直接起到了对流风暴的触发机制作用;深厚偏东风与辐合中心对应较差,与垂直运动及上层辐散也没有很好的配合,与对流风暴的触发没有直接的关系。但是深厚偏东风在对流层低层对应厚达3000m的潮湿空气层,削弱了雨滴下落过程中产生的蒸发降温作用,有利于对流的发展和维持。

一次局地短时大暴雨中-γ尺度分析

利用多普勒天气雷达和地面降水资料,应用四维变分风场反演方法,对2008年8月14日发生在石家庄城区西北部的局地短时大暴雨进行了深入分析,结果表明:(1)短时暴雨发生时,一般会出现反射率因子超过60 dBz的回波,而且径向速度图上会产生明显的辐合区。(2)依据回波顶高和垂直累积液态含水量产品能够提前18 min预报短时暴雨的发生。(3)四维变分风场反演产品能够清晰地展现短时暴雨发生前后低层的风场结构:首先在3 km以下有气旋性涡旋生成,再由涡旋前部的西南气流激发产生强对流回波,之后涡旋移动;但强回波附近始终存在风向的辐合,致使回波稳定维持,造成当地短时强暴雨。风场反演揭示的中-γ涡旋和风场辐合等小尺度系统,对短时强降水的落区及生消预报有较大的作用,跟踪风场的发展演变可以进一步认清局地短时暴雨发生的机理。

云南局地暴雨分型研究

基于常规观测资料与NCEP再分析资料统计2011-2015年云南局地暴雨过程,对所选个例进行分型研究.结果表明:局地暴雨可分为副热带高压外围型、两高辐合型、切变线型、热带低压型、孟加拉湾槽型5种类型;副热带高压外围型与两高辐合型暴雨发生频率最高,即副热带高压影响下有利于产生局地暴雨过程;卫星云图显示,该型暴雨主要由MβCS系统直接产生,MαCS与层状云个例较少,强降雨区位于系统边缘,产生于系统移动发展或移动减弱过程中;强降雨区位于TBB梯度大值带,TBB降低时间提前强降雨开始时间2~3 h,强降雨发展滞后于云团发展.

一次局地大暴雨的落区分析与预报

应用常规天气资料、地面加密自动站资料、FY-2C红外TBB资料和多普勒雷达资料,并引用中尺度对流复合体(MCC)β中尺度单元(MBE)移动概念模型,对2007年7月18日天津地区出现的强雷雨、局地大暴雨天气进行了分析。结果表明:局地大暴雨是在大范围的有利天气条件下产生的,降水具有明显的β中尺度强对流系统特征;强降水出现在"人"字型回波带的头部,落区位置与中气旋的位置相对应;从地面加密自动站资料也能很好地分析出强降水雨区的位置和移动方向。通过分析FY-2C红外TBB资料表明:强降水出现在MCC中冷云顶区的右后侧,且降水强度在MCC中出现强冷云顶区时达到最强。应用MCCβ中尺度单元(MBE)移动的概念模型,通过判断MBE的移动,可以很好地预报出强降水下一时刻的具体落区位置,从而为该地区强雷雨、局地大暴雨落区的短时临近预报提供一种新的方法。

四川省德昌县群发性泥石流的特征和成因

地处川西南的德昌县近年来由局地暴雨诱发的泥石流造成了严重的经济损失。通过德昌群发性泥石流事件中局地暴雨过程和地面条件的分析,探讨了泥石流形成过程中的雨地耦合关系。根据TM遥感影像(30m)解译,德昌泥石流分布具有明显的区域规律,以安宁河及其支流茨达河流域最为集中,安宁河支流老碾河流域次之。根据泥石流的分布特征,结合流域的高程、坡度、地层岩性等信息,分析了泥石流易发区域的流域坡度以及NDVI特点,并将两者结合起来进行泥石流易发区的判别,准确率达92%。因此,遥感影像的光谱差异可以作为识别群发性泥石流地区的遥感标志之一。此类泥石流易发区的下垫面判别准则有两条:(1)流域平均坡度大于20°;(2)NDVI介于0.1～0.3。将泥石流易发区的下垫面识别与诱发泥石流的局地暴雨过程结合起来分析,泥石流灾害的时空分布取决于暴雨中心落点及移动路径,以德昌2004-08-24群发性泥石流进行了实例验证,结果表明泥石流最终的暴发相对于局地暴雨的峰值过程约有1h的滞后时间,此时段正是实施临灾预警的关键时间。据此,提出了群发性泥石流的减灾思路。

复杂地形下北京雷暴新生地点变化的加密观测研究

2008年8月14日北京发生了雷暴群形式的局地暴雨,雷暴新生地点复杂多变,形成了多个γ中尺度的强降水中心。本文利用近年来北京气象现代化建设取得的加密地面自动站、多普勒雷达、风廓线仪、微波辐射计等多种新型高时空分辨率观测资料及雷达四维变分同化系统(VDRAS)反演资料,通过精细分析地面(边界层)风场、温度场等的演变特征,讨论了雷暴新生地点变化的机制。结果表明:复杂地形与雷暴冷池出流作用相结合,主导了雷暴新生地点的变化,进而影响γ中尺度强降水中心的变化;天气尺度高低空涡、槽的配合不一致,并且系统移动缓慢,以及对流层低层的弱的环境垂直风切变,是雷暴冷池结合复杂地形发挥雷暴新生地点主导作用的重要前提;复杂地形使得冷空气在一定范围内流动,在边界层产生碰撞和辐合,起到触发和增强对流作用,并使得对流风暴的形态和走向与地形呈现出紧密相关性;一定强度的冷池出流、边界层前期的暖湿空气和对流不稳定能量的积累,是冷池出流触发雷暴新生和演变的必要条件;北京周边地区的雷暴,通过其雷暴冷池出流沿着沟谷地形或向平原地区流动,与北京山谷或城区的边界层暖湿空气形成辐合抬升机制,触发雷暴新生。

一次局地暴雨的地闪特征及其与强降水的关系

利用闪电定位仪每分钟实测资料、加密自动站逐分钟雨量和卫星云图云顶亮温TBB资料，对2013年4月29日西南涡东移过程中MCS产生的局地暴雨地闪特征进行了分析。结果表明：这次过程产生了大量地闪活动，且地闪主要出现在西南涡东侧500hPa槽前辐合上升运动区、700hPa暖切南侧850hPa暖切北部的辐合带、TBB小于等于220K区域南侧TBB水平梯度大值区的叠置区。整个过程负闪占主导地位，强降水发生在负闪密集区；MCS生命史不同阶段的正负闪频数、密集程度和分布位置是不同的。进一步分析发现单站地闪频数与TBB和强降水在时空变化上有一定的相关性，地闪频数和TBB表现为负相关，即TBB下降到最低值时，地闪频数则到达峰值；逐时地闪频数和雨强均呈单峰分布，负闪频数和强降水发展演变趋势一致，负闪峰值和最大雨峰时刻对应，正闪或和最大雨峰一致或略滞后，正负闪和雨峰的6min演变趋势呈多峰分布，负闪初现12～18min后出现降水，负闪突增较强降水有18～24min的提前量。此个例显示MCS将朝向移动路径前侧的负闪密集区域移动，负闪密集区对局地强降水的落区和强度有较好的指示意义。

河套地区2次暴雨天气过程对比分析

利用MICAPS常规资料和自动站资料,对2008年7月30～31日和8月15～17日发生在河套地区的2次局部暴雨天气过程进行对比分析,结果表明:2次暴雨天气过程的影响系统不同,7月30日是700hPa暖式切变线、台风外围西南急流、地面倒槽,而8月15～17日是高空中小尺度的暖式切变线和地面中低压;台风"凤凰"登陆后,与副高脊之间形成1支超地转的东南低空急流并在其左侧形成1支西南急流,2支水汽源源不断地输送到河套地区是造成7月30日暴雨的重要原因;环境风场的垂直切变特征对强对流的发生发展有重要影响;0℃层高度与-20℃层高度差在2～3km、850hPa与300hPa的温差>40℃、K指数大于32℃、CAPE(1200J/kg都是强对流天气发生的重要指标;高低层散度的数值大小以及在空间上的配置与暴雨的发生有较好的指示作用。

局部地形对北京“7.21”特大暴雨影响的数值研究

利用NCEP1°×1°再分析资料和WRF模式对2012年7月21日北京特大暴雨过程进行数值模拟,结果表明,WRF模式能够成功模拟出本次暴雨过程,特别是对100 mm以上的大暴雨也有较强的模拟能力。基于控制试验,针对北京地区复杂的地形,设计了4组地形敏感性试验。试验结果表明:北京地区局部地形的改变对暴雨落区的模拟影响不大,但对暴雨中心的分布和强度有影响,特别是西南部的局部地形对于本次暴雨过程中降水中心的落区具有很大影响,而北部和东北部的局部地形则作用不明显。进一步研究表明,北京地区西南部的局部地形主要是通过影响低层偏南风急流的流场结构,改变强辐合区和垂直运动的分布和强度,进而引起降水中心位置和强度的改变。