Preliminary research on the relationship between long-range correlations and predictability

By establishing the Markov model for a long-range correlated time series （LRCS） and analysing its evolutionary characteristics, this paper defines a physical effective correlation length （ECL） T, which reflects the predictability of the LRCS. It also finds that the ECL has a better power law relation with the long-range correlated exponent γ of the LRCS： T = Kexp（-γ/0.3） ＋ Y, （0 〈 γ〈 1） the predictability of the LRCS decays exponentially with the increase of γ It is then applied to a daily maximum temperature series （DMTS） recorded at 740 stations in China between the years 1960-2005 and calculates the ECL of the DMTS. The results show the remarkable regional distributive feature that the ECL is about 10-14 days in west, northwest and northern China, and about 5-10 days in east, southeast and southern China. Namely, the predictability of the DMTS is higher in central-west China than in east and southeast China. In addition, the ECL is reduced by 1-8 days in most areas of China after subtracting the seasonal oscillation signal of the DMTS from its original DMTS; however, it is only slightly altered when the decadal linear trend is removed from the original DMTS. Therefore, it is shown that seasonal oscillation is a significant component of daily maximum temperature evolution and may provide a basis for predicting daily maximum temperatures. Seasonal oscillation is also significant for guiding general weather predictions, as well as seasonal weather predictions.

LONG-RANGE CORRELATIONS IN DNA SEQUENCES USING TWO-DIMENSIONAL DNA WALKS

The characterization of long-range correlations and fractal properties of DNA sequences has proved to be adifficult though rewarding task mainly due to the mosaic character of DNA consisting of many patches of various lengthswith different nucleotide constitutions.In this paper we investigate statistical correlations among different positions in DNAsequences using the two-dimensional DNA walk.The root-mean-square fluctuation F(l)is described by a power law.Theautocorrelation function C(l),which is used to measure the linear dependence and periodicity,exists a power law ofC(l)-l^(-μ).We also calculate the mean-square distance<R^2(l)>along the DNA chain,and it may be expressed as<R^2(l)>-l^(?)with 2>γ>1.Our investigations can provide some insights into long-range correlations in DNA sequences.

Characterizing Long-range Correlation Properties in Nucleotide Sequences

Using continuous wavelet transform as the analytical tool, the fractal characteristic of nucleotide sequences was studied. The fractal dimension of the exon and intron sequences for different species was calculated. We use the Mexican hat wavelet function as the mother wavelet and Hurst exponent to describe the long-range correlation. It is found that the Hurst exponent of intron sequence is larger than that of exon sequence for the same gene.

Long-range correlation analysis of urban traffic data

This paper investigates urban traffic data by analysing the long-range correlation with detrended fluctuation analysis. Through a large number of real data collected by the travel time detection system in Beijing, the variation of flow in different time periods and intersections is studied. According to the long-range correlation in different time scales, it mainly discuss the effect of intersection location in road net, people activity customs and special traffic controls on urban traffic flow. As demonstrated by obtained results, the urban traffic flow represents three-phase characters similar to highway traffic. Moreover, compared by the two groups of data obtained before and after the special traffic restrictions （vehicles with special numbered plates only run in a special workday） enforcement, it indicates that the rules not only reduce the flow but also avoid irregular fluctuation.

Long-range angular correlation in dissipative reaction of ^(27)Al+^(27)Al

Angular correlation of excitation functions in dissipative heavy ion collision 27Al+27Al has been measured. The incident beam energies ranged from 114MeV to 127MeV in steps of 200keV. The angular analysis region was continuous from 50°to 90°in the center of mass system. An angular coherent width, at least 4n° was obtained. This long-range angular correlation could not be interpreted in the framework of the standard statistical reaction theory with state of equilibrium or near equilibrium, maybe it reveals the formation of a new kind of dissipative structure in the reaction of 27Al+27AI with the state that is far from equilibrium.

Electronic properties of one-dimensional systems with long-range correlated binary potentials

We study numerically the electronic properties of one-dimensional systems with long-range correlated binary potentials. The potentials are mapped from binary sequences with a power-law power spectrum over the entire frequency range, which is characterized by correlation exponent β. We find the localization length ζ increases withβ. At system sizes N →∞, there are no extended states. However, there exists a transition at a threshold ζ. Whenβ 〉 βc, we obtain ζ 〉 0. On the other hand, at finite system sizes, ζ≥ N may happen at certain β, which makes the system ＂metallic＂, and the upper-bound system size N＊ （β） is given.

Long-range Dependence Characteristics of Forest Biological Disasters in China against the Background of Climate Change

Forest biological disasters(FBD) seriously impact energy flow and material cycling in forest ecosystems,while the underlying causes of FBD are complex. These disasters involve large areas and cause tremendous losses. As a result,the occurrence of FBDs in China( CFBD) threatens the country's ability to realize its strategic target of increasing both forested area(40 million ha) and forest volume(1.3 billion m^3) from 2005 to 2020. Collectively,China has officially named this effort to increase forest area and volume the "Two Increases" as national goals related to forestry. Based on Hurst index analysis from fractal theory,we analyzed the time series of the occurrence area and related data of FBDs from 1950 to 2007 to quantitatively determine the patterns of the macro occurrence of FBDs in China. Results indicates that,the time series of( CFBD) areas is fractal( self-affinity fractal dimension D = 1. 3548),the fluctuation of( CFBD) areas is positively correlated( auto-correlation coefficient C = 0. 2170),and the occurrence of the time series of( CFBD) is long-range dependent( Hurst index H =0. 6416),showing considerably strong trend of increases in FBDC area. Three different methods were further carried out on the original time series,and its two surrogate series generated by function surrogate in library t series,and function Surrogate Data in library in Wavelet software R,so as to analyze the reliability of Hurst indexes. The results showed that the Hurst indices calculated using different estimation methods were greater than 0. 5,ranging from 0. 64 to 0. 97,which indicated that the change of occurrence area data of FBDs was positively autocorrelated.The long-range dependence in forest biological disasters in China is obvious,and the spatial extent of FBDs tended to increase during this study period indicating this trend should be expected to persistent and worsen in the future.

Repeat Sequences and Base Correlations in Human Y Chromosome Palindromes

On the basis of information theory and statistical methods, we use mutual information, n- tuple entropy and conditional entropy, combined with biological characteristics, to analyze the long range correlation and short range correlation in human Y chromosome palindromes. The magnitude distribution of the long range correlation which can be reflected by the mutual information is PS〉PSa〉PSb （P5a and P5b are the sequences that replace solely Alu repeats and all interspersed repeats with random uneorrelated sequences in human Y chromosome palindrome 5, respectively）; and the magnitude distribution of the short range correlation which can be reflected by the n-tuple entropy and the conditional entropy is PS〉P5a〉PSb〉random uncorrelated sequence. In other words, when the Alu repeats and all interspersed repeats replace with random uneorrelated sequence, the long range and short range correlation decrease gradually. However, the random nncorrelated sequence has no correlation. This research indicates that more repeat sequences result in stronger correlation between bases in human Y chromosome. The analyses may be helpful to understand the special structures of human Y chromosome palindromes profoundly.

Impact of radiations on the long-range correlation of soil moisture: A case study of the A’rou superstation in the Heihe River Basin

Analyses of the soil moisture evolution trend and the influence of different types of radiation on soil moisture are of great significance to the simulation and prediction of soil moisture.In this paper,soil moisture(2–60 cm) and various radiation data from 2014–2015 at the A’rou superstation were selected.The radiation data include the net radiation(NR),shortwave and longwave radiation(SR and LR).Using adaptive fractal analysis(AFA),the long-range correlation(LRC) of soil moisture and long-range cross correlation(LRCC) between moisture and three types of radiation were analyzed at different timescales and soil depths.The results show that:(1) Persistence of soil moisture and consistency between soil moisture and radiation mutate at 18-d and 6-d timescales,respectively.The timescale variation of soil moisture persistence is mainly related to the influence process of radiation on soil moisture;(2) Both the soil moisture persistence and soil moisture-radiation consistency vary substantially with soil depth.The soil depth variation of soil moisture persistence is related to the influence intensity of radiation;(3) From 2–6 day timescales,LR displays the strongest influence on soil moisture at depths of 2–10 cm through negative feedback of radiation on the soil temperature.The influence intensity decreases with depth from 2–15 cm.Therefore,the soil moisture persistence is weak and increases with depth from 2–15 cm;and(4) At more than 6 day timescales,SR and NR display a stronger influence on the soil moisture persistence at depths of 2–40 cm through positive feedback of radiation on the soil temperature,especially at depths of 2–10 cm.This influence also weakens with depth.The soil moisture persistence at depths of 2–10 cm is the weakest and increases with depth from 2–40 cm.The research results are instructive for determining timescales and soil depths related to soil water in hydrological models.

Stability and long-range correlation of air temperature in the Heihe River Basin

Air temperature(AT) is a subsystem of a complex climate.Long-range correlation(LRC) is an important feature of complexity.Our research attempt to evaluate AT’s complexity differences in different land-use types in the Heihe River Basin(HRB) based on the stability and LRC.The results show the following:(1) AT’s stability presents differences in different land-use types.In agricultural land,there is no obvious variation in the trend throughout the year.Whereas in a desert,the variation in the trend is obvious: the AT is more stable in summer than it is in winter,with Ta ranges of [8,20]°C and SD of the AT residual ranges of [0.2,0.7],respectively.Additionally,in mountainous areas,when the altitude is beyond a certain value,AT’s stability changes.(2) AT’s LRC presents differences in different land-use types.In agricultural land,the long-range correlation of AT is the most persistent throughout the year,showing the smallest difference between summer and winter,with the Hs range of [0.8,1].Vegetation could be an important factor.In a desert,the long-range correlation of AT is less persistent,showing the greatest difference between summer and winter,with the Hs range of [0.54,0.96].Solar insolation could be a dominant factor.In an alpine meadow,the long-range correlation of AT is the least persistent throughout the year,presenting a smaller difference between summer and winter,with the Hs range of [0.6,0.85].Altitude could be an important factor.(3) Usually,LRC is a combination of the Ta and SD of the AT residuals.A larger Ta and smaller SD of the AT residual would be conducive to a more persistent LRC,whereas a smaller Ta and larger SD of the AT residual would limit the persistence of LRC.A larger Ta and SD of the AT residual would create persistence to a degree between those of the first two cases,as would a smaller Ta and SD of the AT residual.In addition,the last two cases might show the same LRC.

HL-2A装置上刮削层丝状结构时空特征的实验研究

在HL-2A装置上,采用环向相距2100mm的组合探针阵列研究了刮削层涨落谱特征和阵发性丝状结构(blob)动力学过程。实验结果表明,沿磁力线方向静电涨落具有强的环向长程相关性,平行波数接近0,符合交换模的特征。电子回旋共振加热(ECRH)期间,在最后闭合磁面外侧形成径向宽度约1.0cm的E×B剪切层,它对经过该区域的blob具有一定的拉伸作用。条件平均方法分析指出,ECRH期间相比于欧姆加热条件下blob极向尺寸仅增加了20%~30%,但blob内部电势差增大了约40%~60%,暗示了blob内部电势差增加是导致blob径向速度增加的主要原因。这些实验结果为ECRH期间观察到blob阵发性输运的增加提供了一种解释,对理解blob径向速度定标律以及控制blob对流输运具有重要的意义。

A relation between long-range correlation and dielectric anomaly

A double-well potential model is established to explain the dielectric anomaly of ferroelectrics. The dielectric constant consists of two parts. One part is independent of the long-range correlation, following 1/T law. The other part originates from the long-range correlation, and can be described by the correlation length well. The deviation from Curie-Weiss law in a small size sample originates from the decrease of the long-range correlation.

Long-range correlations in remotely sensed chlorophyll in the South China Sea

A 8-year time series of 8-day Seaviewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) data, which spans from Oct 1997 to Oct 2005, was used to study the temporal correlations and scaling behaviour of ocean chlorophyll fluctuations in the South China Sea (SCS) by means of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Long-range correlations in chlorophyll fluctuations were detected in almost all the SCS. The scaling exponents vary over a wide range from 0.5 to 1.14, with an average value of 0.79. High values are found in the upwelling regions, such as the northwest of Luzon and the north of Sunda Shelf. Low values occur in the southwest of Luzon, the east of Hainan Island and a majority of the southern SCS. This spatial pattern is considerably different from that of the scaling exponents of the sea surface temperature (SST) time series. It is also demonstrated that SST exhibits more persistence than chlorophyll in almost all the SCS.

Long-range cross-correlation between urban impervious surfaces and land surface temperatures

The thermal effect of urban impervious surfaces （UIS） is a complex problem. It is thus necessary to study the relationship between UIS and land surface temperatures （LST） using complexity science theory and methods. This paper investigates the long-range cross- correlation between UIS and LST with detrended cross- correlation analysis and multifractal detrended cross- correlation analysis, utilizing data from downtown Shanghai, China. UIS estimates were obtained from linear spectral mixture analysis, and LST was retrieved through application of the mono-window algorithm, using Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus data for 1997-2010. These results highlight a positive long-range cross-correlation between UIS and LST across People＇s Square in Shanghai. LST has a long memory for a certain spatial range of UIS values, such that a large increment in UIS is likely to be followed by a large increment in LST. While the multifractal long-range cross- correlation between UIS and LST was observed over a longer time period in the W-E direction （2002-2010） than in the N-S （2007-2010）, these observed correlations show a weakening during the study period as urbanization increased.

基于Hurst指数的矿化强度识别--以山东大尹格庄金矿为例

探索成矿元素分布的分形特征是揭示矿化富集程度的重要途径之一。运用重标极差分析(R/S)方法,研究了山东大尹格庄金矿-210m中段多勘探线Au品位序列随采样尺度变化的趋势,探讨元素序列的Hurst指数与矿化强度的关系。结果显示:具有不同矿化强度的勘探线Au的Hurst指数存在明显差异,且均大于0.5;矿化连续分布或间断出现的勘探线元素品位序列的Hurst指数大于0.65,表明元素序列具有标度不变性和长相关性,序列的持续强度与矿化程度基本一致,可为区域矿化强度定量识别提供一种新的有效方法。

基于MF-DFA的国际原油价格多重分形特征研究

运用多重分形消除趋势波动分析方法（MF-DFA）和多重分形谱分析方法，研究了1987～2008年美国西德克萨斯轻质原油（WTI）和欧洲北海布伦特原油（Brent）价格波动的多重分形特征。研究发现国际原油价格市场具有标度不变性特征，广义Hurst指数和广义Rényi维数都随阶数的变化而变化，证明了国际原油价格市场存在显著的多重分形特征。研究还发现Brent原油比WTI原油具有更强的长程相关性和更宽的多重分形谱，两次海湾战争期间国际原油市场多重分形谱的变化明显。

基于改进型MF-DFA的月径流序列多重分形分析

应用改进的多重分形消除趋势波动分析法对长江流域某水文站多年月径流资料进行分析计算,结果显示,月径流序列具有长程相关性和多重分形特征,并采用二项倍增串级模型,对其多重分形谱拟合,表明月径流序列具有较强的多重分形性。通过对其初始序列、重排序列和替代序列进行对比分析,揭示出月径流序列多重分形特征是序列本身的长程相关性和胖尾概率分布共同作用的结果,且胖尾概率分布起主要作用。

中国农产品期货市场的多重分形特征及其成因分析——基于MF-DFA分析法

运用多重分形消除趋势波动分析方法(MF-DFA)和多重分形谱分析法,对中国豆一、玉米、硬麦、强麦4种主要农产品期货价格波动的多重分形特征进行了实证分析和比较。研究发现:中国农产品期货市场存在显著的多重分形特征,硬麦、强麦、玉米和豆一期货的多重分形性依次减弱。通过对原始数据的重排和相位随机化处理,可以看出中国农产品期货市场的多重分形特征是由长程相关性和收益序列的厚尾概率分布两个因素共同导致,其中非正态分布起主导作用。

相敏远程碳-氢相关技术在季碳归属中的应用

基于作者的二维相敏INEPT(insensitivenucleienhancedbypolarizationtransfer)实验 ,提出了相敏模式的远程碳 -氢相关实验 ,称为相敏COLOC(heteronuclearcorrelationvialong_rangecouplings)实验 ,改善了远程碳 -氢相关(COLOC)谱的分辨率。相敏COLOC实验可用于测定远程碳 -氢相关信息 ,对季碳化学位移的归属具有一定的意义。作者给出了头孢呋辛钠的相敏COLOC谱。

N(Mg):N(Nb)为1:1时0.93PMN-0.07PT陶瓷的弛豫性能

在制备 ０．９３ＰＭＮ－０．０７ＰＴ（ＰＭＮＴ）陶瓷时，让 ＭｇＯ过剩使Ｎ（Ｍｇ）：Ｎ（Ｎｂ）（原子比）为１：１，它与ＰＭＮ的极性微区［Ｐｂ２ＭｇＮｂ］中Ｍｇ和Ｎｂ的原于比相同．测试结果表明：与以往的ＰＭＮ－ＰＴ材料（ＰＴ的原子百分数小于 ３５％）的情况不同，在ＸＲＤ图中可观测到的铁电四方相；代表极性的 Ｎｂ－Ｏ－Ｎｂ的键振动，在Ｒａｍａｎ谱中强至可以与低温时ＰＭＮ中存在长程相关的Ｎｂ－Ｏ－Ｎｂ键的振动相比较，这说明ＰＭＮＴ中的长程相关性增大．由于高铅缺位的钉扎、自由场的存在等的影响，在介电常数峰温的低温侧存在另一准弛豫铁电－准铁电性转变（ｑＲＦＥ－ｑｎＦＥ： ｔｒａｎｓｉｔｉｏｎ）．