Nonlinear Differential Equation of Macroeconomic Dynamics for Long-Term Forecasting of Economic Development

In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investment. A scheme is proposed for obtaining approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equation by splitting solution into the rapidly oscillating business cycles and slowly varying trend using Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolsky averaging. Simplest modes of the economic system are described. Characteristics of the bifurcation point are found and bifurcation phenomenon is interpreted as loss of stability making the economic system available to structural change and accepting innovations. System being in a nonequilibrium state has a dynamics with self-sustained undamped oscillations. The model is verified with economic development of the US during the fifth Kondratieff cycle (1982-2010). Model adequately describes real process of economic growth in both quantitative and qualitative aspects. It is one of major results that the model gives a rough estimation of critical points of system stability loss and falling into a crisis recession. The model is used to forecast the macroeconomic dynamics of the US during the sixth Kondratieff cycle (2018-2050). For this forecast we use fixed production capital functional dependence on a long-term Kondratieff cycle and medium-term Juglar and Kuznets cycles. More accurate estimations of the time of crisis and recession are based on the model of accelerating log-periodic oscillations. The explosive growth of the prices of highly liquid commodities such as gold and oil is taken as real predictors of the global financial crisis. The second wave of crisis is expected to come in June 2011.

Long-term effects of early antibiotic intervention on blood parameters,apparent nutrient digestibility, and fecal microbial fermentation profile in pigs with different dietary protein levels

Backgroud： This study aimed to determine the effects of early antibiotic intervention（EAI） on subsequent blood parameters, apparent nutrient digestibility, and fecal fermentation profile in pigs with different dietary crude protein（CP） levels. Eighteen litters of piglets（total 212） were randomly allocated to 2 groups and were fed a creep feed diet with or without in-feed antibiotics（olaquindox, oxytetracycline calcium and kitasamycin） from postnatal d 7 to d 42. On d 42, the piglets within the control or antibiotic group were mixed, respectively, and then further randomly assigned to a normal-（20%, 18%, and 14% CP from d 42 to d 77, d 77 to d 120, and d 120 to d 185,respectively） or a low-CP diet（16%, 14%, and 10% CP from d 42 to d 77, d 77 to d 120, and d 120 to d 185,respectively）, generating 4 groups. On d 77（short-term） and d 185（long-term）, serum and fecal samples were obtained for blood parameters, microbial composition and microbial metabolism analysis.Results： EAI increased（P 〈 0.05） albumin and glucose concentrations in low-CP diet on d 77, and increased（P 〈 0.05） urea concentration in normal-CP diet. On d 185, EAI increased（P 〈 0.05） globulin concentration in normal-CP diets, but decreased glucose concentration. For nutrient digestibility, EAI increased（P 〈 0.05）digestibility of CP on d 77. For fecal microbiota, the EAI as well as low-CP diet decreased（P 〈 0.05） E. coli count on d 77. For fecal metabolites, on d 77, EAI decreased（P 〈 0.05） total amines concentration but increased skatole concentration in low-CP diet. On d 185, the EAI increased（P 〈 0.05） putrescine and total amines concentrations in low-CP diets but reduced（P 〈 0.05） in the normal-CP diets. The low-CP diet decreased the concentrations of these compounds.Conclusions： Collectively, these results indicate that EAI has short-term effects on the blood parameters and fecal microbial fermentation profile. The effects of EAI varied between CP levels, which was characterized by the significant alteration of glucose and putrescine concentration.

LONG-TERM EFFECT OF HOMOHARRINGTONINE ON CHRONIC GRANULOCYTIC LEUKEMIA

Objective: To observe the long-term effect of homoharringtonine (HHT) on chronic granulocytic leukemia (CGL) and its pharmacological mechanism. Methods: 76 patients with newly diagnosed early chronic phase CGL received treatment of merely 1.5 mg/m2 daily HHT for induction remission and long-term maintenance treatment. The apoptosis rate of bone marrow CD34+ cells induced by HHT was assayed with flow cytometer. Results: 86.8% patients achieved CHR, 13.2% patients PHR and 31.8% patients got cytogenetic response in HHT treatment group, which was longer than 31 (8-54) months in hydroxyurea (HU) group (P<0.05). The effect of apoptosis induction HHT was stronger on CGL-CP patients bone marrow CD34+ cells than on normal person bone marrow CD34+ cells. Conclusion: HHT is a very effective drug for remission induction and long-term maintenance treatment in early chronic phase CGL patients.

Study on the operation effect of long term care insurance system in Qingdao

Population aging has become a global social problem, the problem in our country has become the core of the aging problem. With the gradual aging of the elderly, loss of energy, loss of energy has become the norm for the elderly or sick elderly. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs statistics, as of the end of 2014, the number of disabled elderly in China reached 35 million, about 90% of the disabled elderly need professional care services and professional treatment to ease the pain. In order to deal with the social problems brought about by the aging of the population, in July 1, 2012, Qingdao City, the first in the country to establish a long-term health care insurance system, has taken a key step to crack the problem of aging. In this paper, the situation of Qingdao long term care insurance system as the research object, taking Qingdao city as study sites, according to statistical data analysis of the implementation effect of long-term local health care policy, and through questionnaires and interviews in the form of local residents to participate in the investigation of awareness, and perception. At the same time, the results of the survey on long-term health care insurance system in Qingdao, the operation effect of the overall analysis.

A LONG TERM EFFECT EVALUATION OF TOTAL HIP PROSTHETIC REPLACEMENT

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Evolution of interfacial dislocation networks during long term thermal aging in Ni-based single crystal superalloy DD5

Interfacial dislocations found in single crystal superalloys after long term thermal aging have an important effect on mechanical properties. Long term thermal aging tests for DD5 single crystal superalloy were carried out at 1,100 ℃ for 20, 100, 200, 500 and 1000 h, and then cooled by air. The effect of long term thermal aging on the dislocation networks at the γ/γ' interfaces was investigated by FE-SEM. Results showed that during the long term thermal aging at 1,100 ℃, misfit dislocations formed firstly and then reorientation in the(001) interfacial planes occurred. Different types of square or rectangular dislocation network form by dislocation reaction. Square dislocation networks consisting of four groups of dislocations can transform into octagonal dislocation networks, and then form another square dislocation network by dislocation reaction. Rectangular dislocation networks can also transform into hexagonal dislocation networks. The interfacial dislocation networks promote the γ' phase rafting process. The dislocation networks spacings become smaller and smaller, leading to the effective lattice misfit increasing from-0.10% to-0.32%.

Systematic review of long-term Xingnao Kaiqiao needling efficacy in ischemic stroke treatment

OBJeCTIve：To systematically evaluate the long-term effect and safety ofXingnao Kaiqiao nee-dling method in ischemic stroke treatment. DATA ReTRIevAL： We retrieved relevant random and semi-random controlled trials that used theXingnao Kaiqiao needling method to treat ischemic stroke compared with various control treatments such as conventional drugs or other acupuncture therapies. Searched databases included China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Weipu Information Resources System, Wanfang Medical Data System, Chinese Biomedical Literature Database, Cochrane Library, and PubMed, from May 2006 to July 2014. SeLeCTION CRITeRIA： Two authors independently conducted literature screening, quality evaluation, and data extraction. The quality of articles was evaluated according to the Cochrane Reviewers’ Handbook 5.1, and the study was carried out using Cochrane system assessment methods. RevMan 5.2 was used for meta-analysis of the included studies. MAIN OUTCOMe MeASUReS： Mortality rate, recurrence rate, and disability rate were observed. ReSULTS：Nine randomized and semi-randomized controlled trials treating 931 cases of ischemic stroke were included in this review. Meta-analysis results showed that there were no sig-niifcant differences in mortality reduction （risk ratio （RR） = 0.58, 95% conifdence interval （CI）： 0.17–1.93,Z = 0.89,P = 0.37） or recurrence rate （RR = 0.55, 95%CI： 0.18–1.70,Z = 1.04,P = 0.30） of ischemic stroke patients between theXingnao Kaiqiao needling and control treatment groups. However, theXingnao Kaiqiao needling method had a tendency towards higher efifcacy in mor-tality reduction and recurrence rates. TheXingnao Kaiqiao needling method was signiifcantly better than that of the control treatment in reducing disability rate （RR = 0.51, 95%CI： 0.27–0.98, Z = 2.03,P 〈 0.05）. CONCLUSION：TheXingnao Kaiqiao needling method has a better effect than control treatment in reducing disability rate. The long-term effect ofXingnao Kaiqiao needling against ischemic stroke is better than that of control treatment. However, the limitations of this study limit the strength of the conclusions. Randomized controlled trials with a strict, reasonable design, and multi-center, large-scale samples and follow-up are necessary to draw conclusions aboutXingnao Kaiqiao needling.

Assessment of Long-Term Compost Application on Physical, Chemical, and Biological Properties, as Well as Fertility, of Soil in a Field Subjected to Double Cropping

The aim of this article was to assess the influence of long-term application of compost on the physical, chemical, and biological properties, as well as the fertility, of soil in a field subjected to double cropping (paddy rice and barley), mainly by integrating previous studies of the effects of compost and manure on soil qualities. Continuous compost application, especially at a high level (30 Mg·ha-1·y-1), into the double cropping soils increased the activities of organic C-, N-, and P-decomposing enzymes and the contents of organic C, total N, and microbial biomass N, as well as the cation exchange capacity, thereby contributing to the enhancement of soil fertility. Also, the compost application increased the degree of water-stable soil macroaggregation (>0.25 mm), which was correlated significantly (r > 0.950, p < 0.05) with the contents of hydrolyzable carbohydrates (with negative charge) and active Al (with positive charge), and resulted in the modification of soil physical properties. Furthermore, the application increased the amount of soil organic matter, including humic acid with a low degree of darkening and fulvic acid, and contributed to C sequestration and storage. Physical fractionation of soil indicated that about 60% of soil organic C was distributed in the silt-sized (2 - 20 μm) aggregate and clay-sized (<2 μm) aggregate fractions, while about 30% existed in the decayed plant fractions (53 - 2000 μm). The results obtained unambiguously indicate that long-term application of compost can improve soil qualities in the field subjected to double cropping, depending on the amount applied.

Long-term acupuncture treatment has a multitargeting regulation on multiple brain regions in rats with Alzheimer＇s disease：a positron emission tomography study

The acute effect of acupuncture on Alzheimer＇s disease,i.e.,on brain activation during treatment,has been reported.However,the effect of long-term acupuncture on brain activation in Alzheimer＇s disease is unclear.Therefore,in this study,we performed long-term needling at Zusanli（ST36）or a sham point（1.5 mm lateral to ST36）in a rat Alzheimer＇s disease model,for 30 minutes,once per day,for 30 days.The rats underwent 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography scanning.Positron emission tomography images were processed with SPM2.The brain areas activated after needling at ST36 included the left hippocampus,the left orbital cortex,the left infralimbic cortex,the left olfactory cortex,the left cerebellum and the left pons.In the sham-point group,the activated regions were similar to those in the ST36 group.However,the ST36 group showed greater activation in the cerebellum and pons than the sham-point group.These findings suggest that long-term acupuncture treatment has targeted regulatory effects on multiple brain regions in rats with Alzheimer＇s disease.

Thermomechanical analysis of long-term global modal and local deformation measurements of the Kishwaukee Bridge using the bootstrap

In this paper we present a comparative analysis of global frequency and local deformation data for a large concrete bridge. The asymptotic probability distributions of the central statistics are presented, and compared with empirical bootstrap estimates. Bootstrapped distributions are calculated from reference data obtained during 1999–2000 and used to develop change-point alarm criteria for the structure, using reasonable sensitivity measures developed from FEM simulations and structural analysis. The implications of the frequency data are discussed in conjunction with the strain and displacement measurements in order to discern if the load carrying capacity of the bridge has been affected. The critical need for more advanced temperature compensation models for large structures continually in thermal disequilibrium is discussed.

MANUAL ACUPUNCTURE PRODUCES LONG TERM INHIBITION OF THE NOCICEPTIVE TRANSMISSION TO WIDE DYNAMIC RANGE NEURONS IN THE SPINAL CORD OF THE RAT

singe unit discharge recordings were made from 42 WDR neurons in spinal dorsal horn in the rat. These neurons could he driven by electrical stimull activiting innocuous and noxious afferent fibres in the ipsilateral plantar nerve. Traditional manual acupuncture delivered at the local acupoints Zusanli, Chengshan, Kunlun and Yongquan induced a strong inhibition or the C-fiber response. in 19 of 42 neurons obtained but did not after the A-fibre response of the neurons. The inhibition of the fibre response outlasted the period of acupuncture for more than 30 min. Neither Anor C-fibre responses in the remaining 23 neurous could be affected by manual acupuncture. These results suggest that the acupuncture stimulation specifically influences nociceptive nociceptive transmission,maybe through a presynaptic action,Furthermore, the fact that the inhibitory effect outlasts the stimulation by more than 30 min indicates that either a neuromodulatory ,presumably peptidergic action is at hand or that a temporary synaptic modification occurs in the spinal dorsal horn.

Long-term radiofrequency electromagnetic fields exposure attenuates cognitive dysfunction in 5×FAD mice by regulating microglial function

We have previously found that long-term effects of exposure to radiofrequency electromagnetic fields in 5xFAD mice with severe late-stage Alzheimer’s disease reduced both amyloid-βdeposition and glial activation,including microglia.To examine whether this therapeutic effect is due to the regulation of activated microglia,we analyzed mic roglial gene expression profiles and the existence of microglia in the brain in this study.5xFAD mice at the age of 1.5 months were assigned to sham-and radiofrequency electromagnetic fields-exposed groups and then animals were exposed to 1950 MHz radiofrequency electromagnetic fields at a specific absorption rate of 5 W/kg for 2 hours/day and 5 days/week for 6 months.We conducted behavioral tests including the object recognition and Y-maze tests and molecular and histopathological analysis of amyloid precursor protein/a myloid-beta metabolism in brain tissue.We confirmed that radiofrequency electromagnetic field exposure for 6 months ameliorated cognitive impairment and amyloid-βdeposition.The expression levels of Iba1(pan-microglial marker)and colony-stimulating factor 1 receptor(CSF1R;regulates microglial prolife ration)in the hippocampus in 5xFAD mice treated with radiofrequency electromagnetic fields were significantly reduced compared with those of the sham-exposed group.Subsequently,we analyzed the expression levels of genes related to mic rogliosis and microglial function in the radiofrequency electromagnetic fields-exposed group compared to those of a CSF1R inhibitor(PLX3397)-treated group.Both radiofrequency electromagnetic fields and PLX3397 suppressed the levels of genes related to microgliosis(Csf1r,CD68,and Ccl6)and pro-inflammatory cytokine interleukin-1β.N otably,the expression levels of genes related to mic roglial function,including Trem2,Fcgr1α,Ctss,and Spi1,were decreased after long-term radiofrequency electromagnetic field exposure,which was also observed in response to microglial suppression by PLX3397.These results showed that radiofrequency electromagnetic fields ameliorated amyloid-βpathology and cognitive impairment by suppressing amyloid-βdeposition-induced microgliosis and their key regulator,CSF1R.

Long-Term Projections of Global Food Requirements: Why Were We Wrong?

This article reports on and analyzes long-term projections of world food requirements compared with observed 2000 data reported by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization. The importance of this “post-mortem” is to strengthen the case for carrying out long-term projections of essential resources—food, energy, and non-fuel minerals— because of the long-lead times needed to insure that adequate global output levels of these basic ingredients of living standards will be met. This study should prove useful to those preparing today’s long-term projections, with world population projected to rise to over 9bn by mid-century.

Long-term efficacy of capecitabine plus oxaliplatin chemotherapy on stage Ⅲ colon cancer: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Many clinical studies for the long-term survival or efficacy of capecitabine plus oxaliplatin(XELOX)in colon cancer have already been studied,but its clinical benefit is controversial.AIM To evaluate the long-term efficacy of XELOX regimen in comparison with other adjuvant chemotherapy protocols in colon cancer.METHODS By searching the PubMed,EMBASE and Cochrane databases,a total of 12 randomized controlled trials involving 6698 stageⅢcolon cancer cases(XELOX protocol:n=3298 cases;other adjuvant chemotherapy protocol:n=3268 cases)were included.The parameter outcomes included the overall survival and the disease-free survival.The quality control of selected literature was based on the Jadad scale and the GRADE system.RESULTS In comparison to other adjuvant chemotherapy regimen,XELOX regimen showed a better overall survival(odds ratio=1.29,95% confidence interval:1.15-1.44,P<0.0001)and a better disease-free survival(odds ratio=1.32,95%confidence interval:1.18-1.46,P<0.0001)for colon cancer patients,suggesting the XELOX regimen can be a good option for postoperative treatment of stage III colon cancer.CONCLUSION The XELOX regimen can be a preferred option for adjuvant treatment of stageⅢcolon cancer after surgery.

Kaposi’s Sarcoma Associated with Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Rare Complication of Long-Term Corticosteroid Therapy

Corticosteroid therapy has revolutionized the treatment of many diseases in medicine. The most concerned diseases are chronic inflammatory diseases. Its use may be either short-term or long-term, thus generating several side effects, some of which are conventional and known, but others are rare, such as Kaposi’s sarcoma. We report here a particular clinical observation. Observation: This is a patient of 37 years, who consults in Internal Medicine for the treatment of mucocutaneous lesions, papular nodular, hyper pigmented, budding and disseminated appeared after six months of corticosteroid therapy. This treatment was introduced for the treatment of acoustic neurinoma. The patient is not diabetic or alcoholic and has a negative HIV status. The diagnosis of Kaposi’s sarcoma was made by histology of biopsied skin lesions which concluded for a regular proliferation without atypia spindle cell or mitosis. The lesions persisted over a month despite discontinuation of corticosteroid therapy. Treatment with Bleomycin was necessary. The outcome was favorable under treatment with progressive and complete disappearance of lesions after 15 treatments. Conclusion: The classical side effects of long-term corticosteroid are known, but Kaposi sarcoma complicating long-term corticosteroid is rare in the literature. It is vital that any long-term corticosteroid should be the subject of careful and regular monitoring.

Long-term trends of fine particulate matter and chemical composition in the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone （PRDEZ）, China

Understanding essential for formulating the trends in PM2.5 levels is clean air plans. This paper analyzes PM2.5 data from various published sources for the years 2000 to 2010 in the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone （PRDEZ）. The long-term variation in PM2.5 mass concentration is analyzed. Results show that PM2.5, organic carbon （OC）, elemental carbon （EC）, and SO24 show a similar trend, increasing before 2005 and then decreasing slightly. The annual average PM2.5 concentra- tion ranges from 49.1 μg·m-3 in 2000 to 64.3 μg·m-3 in 2010, with a peak of 84.1 μg· m3 in 2004. None of these 11 years meets the new National Ambient Air Quality standard （NAAQS） for PM2.5 （35 μg· m-3）. Overall average concentrations of OC, EC, and SO2/4 are 13.0, 6.5, and 11.8μg·m-3, respectively. NO3 and NH＋ respectively have concentrations of 1.5 μg·m-3 and 2.9 μg·m-3 in 2000 and 6.4 μg·m 3 and 5.3μg·m-3 in 2010, with a statistically significant average annual trend of＋ 0.2 μg·m-3 ·yr-1 and ＋ 0.1 μg· m-3. yr-1. In certain geographic regions, OC and EC contribute most of the PM2.5, while in other regions secondary water-soluble ions are more important. In general, OC and SO2/4- are the dominant components of PM2.5, contributing 20.6% and 18.6%, respectively. These results provide, for the first time, a better understanding of the long-term PM2.5 characteristics and trends, on a species-by-species basis, in the PRDEZ. The results indicate that PM2.5 abatement needs to prioritize secondary species.

Tourism will be a Key Factor in the Global Drive out of Recession and a Strong Contributor to a Long Term Green Economic New Deal

Tourism is facing increasingly difficult conditions as the global economy deteriorates and Asia and the Pacific, one of fastest growing tourism regions in the world,is also strongly feeling the impact of the global slowdown.But,as concluded by the over 100 experts from 25 countries gathered in Guilin for the 2nd UNWTO Conference on

家庭住房负担对流动人口生育行为的影响——基于个体和流入地多层线性模型的检验

能否揭示住房负担对流动人口生育行为的影响机制是促进住房市场和人口和谐发展、提振生育的关键所在。在构建住房负担与流动人口生育行为关系模型基础上,采用能将流动人口微观个体和流入地宏观特征相联结的多层嵌套模型,检验住房负担对流动人口生育行为的影响及长期居住意愿在其中的重要作用。在此基础上,分别按结婚时间、第一胎性别将样本分组,剖析二者关系的异质规律。研究发现:住房负担加重是流动人口生育低迷的重要原因,且流入地的人均GDP会强化其对流动人口生育的抑制作用;长期居住意愿在住房负担对流动人口生育行为的影响中起到了部分中介作用,住房负担加重造成流动人口社会融入感和长期居住意愿下降,进一步加剧生育抑制效应;住房负担对流动人口生育行为的影响会随流动人口结婚时间长短、第一胎性别的不同而呈现异质性特征。

基于企业绩效视角的知识产权文本信息披露有效性研究

本文基于《知识产权相关信息披露规定》颁布这一外生冲击构建连续型DID模型,基于企业绩效视角考察知识产权文本信息披露的有效性。结果表明:在信息披露的信息效应和内损效应的影响下,《规定》颁布后企业披露的知识产权文本信息对企业绩效存在异质性影响。知识产权信息披露短期内并未给企业带来盈利能力的提升,而从长期看知识产权信息披露反映了市场对公司的良好预期。债权融资水平的降低是知识产权信息披露降低企业短期绩效的潜在机制,权益资本成本的降低是知识产权信息披露提升企业长期绩效的潜在机制。按信息类型分类分析发现,优势信息和内容信息与短期绩效的负向关系更显著,内容信息、优势信息和风险信息对长期绩效的正向影响程度依次减弱。截面分组发现,成长期和衰退期企业知识产权信息披露与短期绩效的负向关系更显著,成长期和成熟期企业知识产权信息披露与长期绩效的正向关系更显著。研究不仅证明了知识产权信息披露对企业绩效存在的差异性影响,也对政府逐步完善知识产权信息披露政策,企业更好地开展知识产权信息披露的实践活动均具有借鉴意义。