Opportunities and Risks of Natural Gas Investment in China under the Circumstance of Low Oil Prices

After more than 30 years of rapid growth, the Chinese economy has entered the "new normal" of moderately high growth. Due to the effects of multiple factors, the international oil price has remained consistently low. The low oil price has exerted critical effects on international natural gas investment. At the same time, the market-oriented price mechanism of natural gas in China is gradually taking shape; the concept of low carbon development is widely advocated; and the use of natural gas gains popularity in the city. Such factors provide great opportunities for investment in the natural gas market of China, including boiler coal-to-gas transformation, natural gas distributed energy and natural gas vehicles. However, risks also exist, such as the lower competitiveness of natural gas, its excess production capacity and dwindling consumption in some gas consumption industries, an insufficient driving force for facilitating the coal-to-gas transformation of industrial fuel users, reverse substitution of "coal in place of gas" in some enterprises, nontransparent costs of the downstream link of the natural gas price chain, and mismatches and nonsynchronous adjustments in natural gas prices and electricity prices.

Strategy for China's Natural Gas Industry in the Low Oil Price Environment

In regard to the continuous decline of international oil prices in recent years, how should China's natural gas industry seize the opportunity brought by this round of energy price declines, and how should we meet the challenges posed to the development of the domestic natural gas industry caused by changes in the international energy pattern? These questions deserve serious consideration. Through analysis on the situation of the domestic and overseas oil and gas market, and in combination with China's 13 th Five-Year Plan for energy development, the article proposes the development strategy in response to the low oil prices, aiming to provide countermeasures and suggestions for the long-term stable development of China's natural gas industry.

The Oil Price Crash of 2014: Implications for a Multi-Billion Dollar LNG Project

The price of oil is probably the single most important economic variable in the global economy. The rapid drop in price of oil in 2014 set analysts and commentators busy, trying to predict its trajectory and implications. More than $150 billion of investments have been cancelled by oil companies in 2015 due to the low price of oil, with more spending cuts to follow in 2016. The oil price decline was supposed to catalyze a transfer of wealth from oil-producing countries to oil-consuming countries. It was estimated that a $10-a-barrel fall in the oil price transfers around 0.5 percent of world GDP from oil exporters to oil importers. The recent oil price collapse has far-reaching implications for capital projects in the oil and gas industry. The impact of a fall in oil price is analyzed for a large capital investment project, involving the construction and operation of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant. The breakeven price (BEP) of oil for the project is determined.

原油、天然气与煤炭价格关系研究

基于2009年1月~2019年11月的月度原油、天然气和煤炭价格指数,首先运用HP滤波分析和协整检验研究原油、天然气和煤炭价格之间的长期关系,然后运用格兰杰因果检验及VAR模型研究原油、天然气和煤炭价格之间的短期动态关系,结果表明:天然气价格与原油价格长期正相关,原油、天然气和煤炭价格三者之间存在着长期均衡关系。存在由原油价格和煤炭价格到天然气价格的短期单向格兰杰因果关系。从短期来看,原油和煤炭价格上涨的冲击对天然气价格均有显著正向影响,而天然气价格上涨冲击对原油和煤炭价格没有显著影响。对原油、天然气和煤炭价格短期波动方差贡献最大的均是自身因素,天然气价格受原油和煤炭价格的影响较大而对原油和煤炭价格影响很小。近年来,油气价格的长期联系更为紧密,但是从短期来看原油价格对天然气价格影响有所减弱。

国际原油价格波动与中国LNG进口价格关系研究

为分析国际原油价格波动与中国LNG进口价格之间的关系,选取2014年11月-2020年7月的国际原油价格和中国LNG进口价格月平均数据建立VAR模型,并运用协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验进行研究。结果表明:国际原油价格和中国LNG进口价格之间存在长期均衡关系,且表现为同向变动。在短期内,当国际原油价格和中国LNG进口价格出现偏离时,中国LNG进口价格将会反方向变动以进行调整,而国际原油价格变化相对较小。国际原油价格是中国LNG进口价格的单向格兰杰原因,前者对后者具有预测能力。国际原油价格的短期波动主要是受自身价格的影响,中国LNG进口价格的波动会同时受到国际原油价格和自身的影响,但更大程度上是由于国际原油价格对其冲击作用,影响时滞为7个月。

页岩革命对美国油气价格长期关系的影响研究

基于1997年1月-2019年12月数据,首先运用约翰森(Johansen)协整检验,判断整个样本期内油气价格是否存在协整关系,然后使用允许存在两个未知断点的协整检验,判断油气价格长期关系是否发生了变化并确定断点位置,最后在断点分割出的时间段内对几个变量进行约翰森协整检验,并构建向量误差修正模型,以观察页岩革命对油气价格长期关系产生的影响。主要结论:页岩气、页岩油革命暴发后,美国天然气和原油价格相继进入下跌期,油气价格长期关系经历了由正向均衡到负向均衡再到正向均衡的转变过程。未来,随着全球天然气贸易特别是液化天然气贸易的发展,美国油气价格长期关系可能再度发生变化。本研究为油气投资商和能源消费商提供制定合理的投资、购买和存储策略的经验依据。

国际油气价格动态关系对中国天然气定价机制改革的启示

文章从国际视角量化分析了国际天然气价格与石油价格之间的动态关系,并针对我国当前的天然气价格改革现状,对我国天然气市场发展和定价机制的改革方向提出了政策建议。研究发现,页岩气革命导致了当前国际油气价格呈现"分离"态势,这也是天然气市场化的必然结果。然而,油气价格之间的弱联动性仍然存在,且在当前国际低能源价格的态势下,我国应抓住契机,进一步推动天然气价格的市场化改革。