Coupling and Long-term Change Characteristics of Forest Carbon Sink and Forestry Economic Development in China

[Objectives]To analyze the changes in of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,provide reference for relevant management decisions,ecological governance and resource and environment management,and promote the development of green low-carbon economy in China.[Methods]Based on the data of six forest resource inventories from 1989 to 2018 and related studies,the comprehensive evaluation model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,the coupling degree model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development,and the coupling coordination degree model of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development were adopted.The coupling degree of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development from 1992 to 2018 was analyzed.Stepwise regression and ARIMA model were used to analyze the influencing factors and lagging characteristics of forest carbon sink.The coupling degree between forest carbon sink and forestry economic development in China from 2019 to 2030 was predicted by autoregression and ADF test.The coupling between forest carbon sink and forestry economic development in China and its long-term change characteristics were also discussed in this study.[Results](i)The investment of ecological construction and protection,the actual investment of forestry key ecological projects,GDP and the import of forest products had a significant impact on forest resources carbon stock.The total output value of forestry industry,the actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects and the export volume of forest products had a significant impact on the forest carbon sink,and the actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects has the greatest impact on the two.(ii)The impact of actually completed investment of forestry key ecological projects had a lag of 2 years on the forest resources carbon stock and a lag of 1 year on the forest carbon sink.When investing in forest carbon sink,it is necessary to make a good plan in advance,and do a good job in forest resources management and time optimization.(iii)From 1992 to 2018,the coupling degree of forest resources carbon stock,forest carbon sink and long-term development of forestry economy in China was gradually increasing.Although there were some fluctuations in the middle time,the coupling degree of forest resources carbon stock and the long-term development of forestry economy increased by 9.24%annually,and the degree of coupling coordination increased from"serious imbalance"in 1992 to"high-quality coordination"in 2018.From 1993 to 2018,the coupling degree of forest carbon sink and long-term development of forestry economy increased by 9.63%annually,slightly faster than the coupling coordination degree of forest resources carbon stock and long-term development of forestry economy.The coordination level also rose from level 2 in 1993 to level 10 in 2018.(iv)The prediction shows that the coupling coordination degree of forest resources carbon stock,forest carbon sink and the long-term development of forestry economy would increase from 2019 to 2030.The coupling coordination degree(D)values of both were close to 1,the coordination level was also 10 for a long time,and the degree of coupling coordination was also maintained at the"high-quality coordination"level for a long time.[Conclusions]Forest has multiple benefits of society,economy and ecology,and forest carbon sink is only a benefit output.The long-term coupling analysis of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development is a key point to multiple benefit analysis.The analysis shows that the spillover effect and co-evolution effect of forest carbon sink in China are significant.From 1992 to 2018,the coupling coordination degree of forest carbon sink and forestry economic development was gradually rising.The prediction analysis also indicate that the coupling coordination degree between the forest carbon sink and the long-term development of forestry economy will remain at the level of"high-quality coordination"for a long time from 2019 to 2030.Therefore,improving the level of forest management and maintaining the current trend of increasing forest resources are the key to achieving the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in China.

Research on the development mode of long-term nursing insurance ——taking Qingdao as an example

With the gradual development of society, scientific and technological progress, aging gradually aggravated, has become a hot topic of society. People to old age, self-care ability than in the past, not only suffer from disease, life has become difficult, coupled with the large number of empty nest family, the cost of care is also very high, whether it is to receive home care or professional institutions of care have great difficulties. Therefore, the community should be a large number of people with long-term care needs of the appropriate economic compensation, in this context, long-term care insurance is born. As a leading city in Shandong Province, Qingdao has introduced long-term care insurance and achieved good results. This paper analyzes the practical problems faced by Qingdao, that is, the development background of Qingdao long-term nursing insurance model, obtains the deficiency of Qingdao long-term nursing insurance, and then puts forward the corresponding countermeasures, and then ponders how to choose the long-term nursing insurance model of our country＇s future development.

Prospects of China's Agricultural Development

Remarkable achievements have been made in China＇s agricultural development since the late 1970s. Nevertheless, deep-rooted problems are arising from inefficient farming practices. From mid- and long-term perspectives, migration of China＇s agricultural labor will slow and large-scale operation of farmland will accelerate. Although grain supply and demand have maintained a tight balance, new potentials still exist in improving grain production. Under the pressures of resource and environmental constraints, advancing the green and efficient transition of agriculture will become a new trend in China＇s agricultural development. In this context, the treatment of agricultural pollution, supply-side structural reform and innovation of agricultural subsidy policy are of strategic significance to the transition and upgrade of China＇s agriculture.

Advancing immunosuppression in liver transplantation: A narrative review

Immunosuppression is essential to ensure recipient and graft survivals after liver transplantation(LT). However, our understanding and management of the immune system remain suboptimal. Current immunosuppressive therapy cannot selectively inhibit the graft-specific immune response and entails a significant risk of serious side effects, i.e., among others, de novo cancers, infections, cardiovascular events, renal failure, metabolic syndrome, and late graft fibrosis, with progressive loss of graft function. Pharmacological research, aimed to develop alternative immunosuppressive agents in LT, is behind other solidorgan transplantation subspecialties, and, therefore, the development of new compounds and strategies should get priority in LT. The research trajectories cover mechanisms to induce T-cell exhaustion, to inhibit co-stimulation, to mitigate non-antigen-specific inflammatory response, and, lastly, to minimize the development and action of donor-specific antibodies. Moreover, while cellular modulation techniques are complex, active research is underway to foster the action of T-regulatory cells, to induce tolerogenic dendritic cells, and to promote the function of B-regulatory cells. We herein discuss current lines of research in clinical immunosuppression, particularly focusing on possible applications in the LT setting.

父母应对社会化如何影响儿童青少年适应:基于长时与实时时间轴的视角

父母应对社会化是指父母向儿童青少年提供认知、情感和行为策略以应对压力的过程。实证研究从长时程发展时间轴、具体情境下的实时时间轴及不同时间轴的结合等角度探讨父母应对社会化的作用,揭示了父母应对社会化对于儿童青少年适应的独特效应。对于其中的心理机制,应对社会化过程理论模型探讨了儿童青少年应对过程在父母应对社会化与儿童青少年适应之间的中介作用,教养×压力放大和差异效应模型考察了应对社会化作用过程的边界条件。本研究将此两种模型进行整合,并基于动态系统视角提出应对社会化动态过程理论模型,从长时程发展时间轴和具体情境下的实时时间轴两个层面、儿童个体和亲子二元两个水平完善父母应对社会化对儿童青少年适应的作用机制。未来研究可进一步考察父母应对社会化作用效果的普遍性,深化探索父母应对社会化影响儿童青少年适应的机制,为父母应对社会化在家庭教育与临床干预领域的应用与推广提供科学依据。

Performance of Rural Municipalities After the 2015 Reformation of Long-Term Care Insurance in Japan

Worldwide,welfare is trending from a welfare state model to social participation to ensure the sustainability of health care systems.Japan,where the aging rate will reach 40%by 2060,reformed public Long-Term Care Insurance(LTCI)on a large scale in 2015 and started the Comprehensive Service project(CS project),which emphasizes the prevention of long-term care through social participation in the community.Through this project,communities work to develop prevention efforts revolving around the community salon/caféand mutual support,including all daily tasks that previously were the purview of family members.Each municipality has an obligation to promote a CS project through new community development initiatives among community members.The purpose of this study is to investigate the CS projects performed by rural municipalities and to explore the important factors for their success.The authors used a case study methodology and constant comprehensive methodology for analyzing interview data to pull out the elements of successful initiatives.The study shows that the following factors influence success:recognition of demographic risk,recognition of the ineffectiveness of LTCI services,developing a passionate philosophy and strategy as a municipality,developing community members’initiative,and having many assets and full participation in the community.These factors imply that community development is a critical part of any successful CS project.

China’s Local Government Debts and Bond Market:Clarification and Policy Choice~

The surge in China＇s local government debt has made various sectors of society pay closer attention to the situation. First of all, four types of debt relations must be clarified： the relationship between asset and non-asset debt, the difference between long- term and short-term debt, the difference between debt in the form of bonds and debt in the form of bank loans, and the difference between debt listed in government budgets and other government debt. The development of long-term bonds is a fairly good choice for China to upgrade its consumption structure, accelerate urbanization, transform its economic development patterns, and meanwhile, to alleviate the mismatch between the financial powers of local governments and their administrative responsibilities.

Yunnan's Intent to Innovate

TOWARDS the end of last year, a Chinese magazine released a list of the country’s buzzwords of 2006. It was no surprise that ＂Innovation＂ ranked third. That year witnessed a nationwide campaign of sci-tech innovation that reached unprecedented heat. And this time, the flames spread inland, to places like the frontier province of Yunnan.

Vigorously Achieve a Long-Term Stable and Rapid Development

Since the beginning of 2012,the international political and economic environment becomes more complex and volatile,so China’s economic development faces increasing difficulties.China’s economic growth has slowed down,with GDP growth rate of 8.1%,7.6%,and 7.4%for the first,second and third quarter respectively.What China’s current economic situation is and how the future development trend will be

Anthropometric and Physical Performance Profiles of High School Age American Football Players: 11th and 12th Grade Japanese Athletes

Purpose To compare anthropometric and physical performance profiles of Japanese 11th and 12th grade American football players within each positional group.Methods Fifty-two 11th and 12th grade American football players from two Japanese high schools participated in the study during the summer pre-season period.They performed anthropometric(height and body mass)and physical(vertical jump,broad jump,40-yard dash,pro-agility shuttle 4-kg medicine ball chest throw,front throw,and back throw)testing.Vertical jump momentum and 10-yard sprint momentum were also calculated by multiplying the velocity and body mass.Athletes were divided into two groups by playing positions:skill players and linemen.Results Skill players in the 12th grade were better at medicine ball chest throw(d=0.73,P=0.04)and vertical jump momen-tum(d=0.75,P=0.03)than those in the 11th grade.However,there were no differences in any measurements(P>0.05)between linemen from the two grades.Conclusion The current study suggests that upper and lower body absolute power and momentum production can be improved for skill players even over 17 years old.On the other hand,body size and speed,attributes that did not change between 11th and 12th grades,seem to be essential talent identification criteria in the current environment.Further study is needed to monitor longitudinal performance improvements in implementing talent development programs by focusing on the quality of speed,agility and power development at the youth level.

Two decades of compositional and structural change in deciduous old-growth forests of Indiana,USA

Aims Using a network of permanent plots,we determined how multiple old-growth forests changed over an 18-19-year period at a state-wide scale.This examination of change allowed us to assess how the compositional and structural stability of each forest varied with site characteristics(topography,physiography and productivity)and stochastic disturbance.Methods In 2011,we resampled 150 plots distributed across five old-growth hardwood forests in Indiana,USA that were originally sampled in 1992-1993.Within each plot,we relocated and remeasured the diameter at breast height(dbh)of all trees(≥10.0 cm)present during the 1992-1993 sample,which allowed us to track their individual fates through time for growth and mortality calculations.Trees that grew to≥10.0 cm dbh since plot establishment were designated as ingrowth.The dbh and species of all saplings(stems≥2.0 cm but<10.0 cm dbh)were also recorded.For each forest,we calculated density(stems ha^(−1)),basal area(BABA;m^(2)ha^(−1))and importance value(relative density+relative BABA)/2 of trees by species.For saplings,density per ha was calculated by species for each forest.We also calculated annual mortality rate(AMR)for three diameter classes(10-29.9,30-59.9 and≥60 cm)and species richness(S),evenness(E)and Shannon-Weiner diversity(H')for the tree and sapling layers.Differences between years were compared for each forest using paired t-tests and Wilcoxon signed rank tests.Important FindingsAlthough we observed commonality in changes across some sites,our results suggest that these forests differ in their rates and trajectories of change.Changes in total stand BABA and density varied across sites and were influenced by past disturbance and mortality rates.We observed a general increase in the overstory dominance of Acer saccharum coupled with a general decrease in the dominance of Quercus section Lobatae(red oak group)species.Mortality of overstory trees present in 1992-1993 ranged from 27%to 49%over the study period(mean AMR 1.6-3.7%).Most sites experienced greater mortality of early and mid-successional species,but one site experienced heavy mortality of Fagus grandifolia,a shade-tolerant late-successional species.Shade tolerant species,A.saccharum in particular,dominated the sapling layer at most sites.However,recruitment of this species into larger size classes did not occur uniformly across all sites and the species was comparatively uncommon at one site.Overall,our results suggest that old-growth remnants,even within a single state,cannot be viewed as equivalent units with regard to research or management.Stochastic disturbance events and surrounding land use may have amplified effects on small scattered remnants.Therefore,continued monitoring of these rare,but biologically important forests is critical to their long-term management and protection.

Does Resisted Sled Towing Improve the Physical Qualities of Elite Youth Soccer Players of Differing Maturity Status?

Purpose Sled towing has been shown to be an effective method to enhance the physical qualities in youth athletes.The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of a 6-week sled towing intervention on muscular strength,speed and power in elite youth soccer players of differing maturity status.Method Seventy-three male elite youth soccer players aged 12-18 years(Pre-Peak Height Velocity[PHV]n = 25;Circa-PHV n = 24;Post-PHV n = 24)from one professional soccer academy participated in this study.Sprint assessments(10 m and 30 m),countermovement jump and isometric mid-thigh pull were undertaken before(T1)and after(T2)a 6-week intervention.The training intervention consisted of 6 weeks(2xper week,10 sprints over 20 m distance)of resisted sled towing(linear progression 10%-30%of body mass)during the competitive season.Bayesian regression models analysed differences between T1 and T2 within each maturity group.Results There were minimal changes in strength,speed and power(P=0.35-0.80)for each maturity group across the 6-week intervention.Where there were changes with greater certainty,they are unlikely to represent real effect due to higher regres-sion to the mean(RTM).Conclusion It appears that a 6-week sled towing training programme with loadings of 10%-30%body mass only maintains physical qualities in elite youth soccer players pre-,circa-,and post-PHV.Further research is required to determine the effectiveness of this training method in long-term athletic development programmes.

Application of Mathematial-Simulated Model Setup for Eudcational Planning

In this paper, the principle and methods of system engineering are applied to studying the problem of educational long-term development planning. a complete mathematical-simulated model setup is adopted to describe the internal regularity between educational system and social economic macrosystem. and then. a set of effective methods are put forward to carry out educational planning. This model has been actually appliedcation in the project of educational planning research in Chongqing region,