Development of a new Cox model for predicting long-term survival in hepatitis cirrhosis patients underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts

BACKGROUND Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)placement is a procedure that can effectively treat complications of portal hypertension,such as variceal bleeding and refractory ascites.However,there have been no specific studies on predicting long-term survival after TIPS placement.AIM To establish a model to predict long-term survival in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis after TIPS.METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted on a cohort of 224 patients who un-derwent TIPS implantation.Through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses,various factors were examined for their ability to predict survival at 6 years after TIPS.Consequently,a composite score was formulated,encompassing the indication,shunt reasonability,portal venous pressure gradient(PPG)after TIPS,percentage decrease in portal venous pressure(PVP),indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min(ICGR15)and total bilirubin(Tbil)level.Furthermore,the performance of the newly developed Cox(NDC)model was evaluated in an in-ternal validation cohort and compared with that of a series of existing models.RESULTS The indication(variceal bleeding or ascites),shunt reasonability(reasonable or unreasonable),ICGR15,post-operative PPG,percentage of PVP decrease and Tbil were found to be independent factors affecting long-term survival after TIPS placement.The NDC model incorporated these parameters and successfully identified patients at high risk,exhibiting a notably elevated mortality rate following the TIPS procedure,as observed in both the training and validation cohorts.Additionally,in terms of predicting the long-term survival rate,the performance of the NDC model was significantly better than that of the other four models[Child-Pugh,model for end-stage liver disease(MELD),MELD-sodium and the Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival].CONCLUSION The NDC model can accurately predict long-term survival after the TIPS procedure in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis,help identify high-risk patients and guide follow-up management after TIPS implantation.

A Long-Term Numerical Model of Morphodynamic Evolution and Its Application to the Modaomen Estuary

Because of the influence of human activities, the evolution of the Modaomen Estuary is no longer a purely natural process. We used a long-term morphodynamic model （PRD-LTMM-10） to study the evolution of the estuary from 1977 to 1988. The model incorporated modules for riprap-siltation promotion and waterway dredging. The model can simulate the morphodynamic evolutionary processes occurring in the Modaomen Estuary during the period of interest. We were able to isolate the long-term influences of various human engineering activities and the roles of natural factors in estuarine evolution. The governance projects had the largest effect on the natural development of the estuary, resulting in larger siltation on the west side. Installation of riprap and reclamation of submerged land resulted in scouring of the main Hengzhou Channel causing deep trough out-shift. Severe siltation narrowed the upper end of the Longshiku Deep Trough.

An investigation of the morphodynamic change of reef islands under monochromatic waves

The persistence and habitability of coral reef islands in future extreme oceanographic conditions has received increasing attention in the recent decade,concerning that the sea level rise(SLR)and more frequent and intense storms in the context of global climate change are expected to destabilize those islands.Here,we conduct a set of wave-flume laboratory experiments focusing on the morphodynamic change of reef islands to varying ocean forcing conditions(wave height and SLR).Subsequently,a phase-resolving XBeach numerical model is adopted to simulate the monochromatic wave process and its associated sediment dynamics.The adopted model is also firstly validated by laboratory experimental results as reported in this study.It is then used to examine the impacts of island morphological factors(island width,island height,island location and island side slope)on the island migration.The combined laboratory/physical and numerical experiment outputs suggest that reef islands can accrete vertically in response to the sea level rise and the increased storminess.

A review of uncertain factors and analytic methods in long-term energy system optimization models

A larger number of uncertain factors in energy systems influence their evolution.Owing to the complexity of energy system modeling,incorporating uncertainty analysis to energy system modeling is essential for future energy system planning and resource allocation.This study focusses on long-term energy system optimization model.The important uncertain parameters in the model are analyzed and divided into policy,economic,and technical factors.This study specifically addresses the challenges related to carbon emission reduction and energy transition.It involves collecting and organizing relevant research on uncertainty analysis of long-term energy systems.Various energy system uncertainty modeling methods and their applications from the literature are summarized in this review.Finally,important uncertainty factors and uncertainty modeling methods for long-term energy system modeling are discussed,and future research directions are proposed.

Physical modeling of long-term dynamic characteristics of the subgrade for medium-low-speed maglevs

To investigate the dynamic characteristics and long-term dynamic stability of the new subgrade structure of medium-low-speed(MLS)maglevs,cyclic vibration tests were performed under natural and rainfall conditions,and the dynamic response of the subgrade structure was monitored.The dynamic response attenuation characteristics along the depth direction of the subgrade were compared,and the distribution characteristics of the dynamic stress on the surface of the subgrade along the longitudinal direction of the line were analyzed.The critical dynamic stress and cumulative deformation were used as indicators to evaluate the long-term dynamic stability of the subgrade.Results show that water has a certain effect on the dynamic characteristics of the subgrade,and the dynamic stress and acceleration increase with the water content.With the dowel steel structure set between the rail-bearing beams,stress concentration at the end of the loaded beam can be prevented,and the diffusion distance of the dynamic stress along the longitudinal direction increases.The dynamic stress measured in the subgrade bed range is less than 1/5 of the critical dynamic stress.The postconstruction settlement of the subgrade after similarity ratio conversion is 3.94 mm and 7.72 mm under natural and rainfall conditions,respectively,and both values are less than the 30 mm limit,indicating that the MLS maglev subgrade structure has good long-term dynamic stability.

Review of multi-objective optimization in long-term energy system models

Modeling and optimizing long-term energy systems can provide solutions to various energy and environmental policies involving public-interest issues.The conventional optimization of long-term energy system models focuses on a single economic goal.However,the increasingly complex demands of energy systems necessitate the comprehensive consideration of multiple dimensional objectives,such as environmental,social,and energy security.Therefore,a multi-objective optimization of long-term energy system models has been developed.Herein,studies pertaining to the multi-objective optimization of long-term energy system models are summarized;the optimization objectives of long-term energy system models are classified into economic,environmental,social,and energy security aspects;and the multi-objective optimization methods are classified and explained based on the preferential expression of decision makers.Finally,the key development direction of the multi-objective optimization of energy system models is discussed.

Aggregated morphodynamic modelling of tidal inlets and estuaries

Aggregation is used to represent the real world in a model at an appropriate level of abstraction.We used the convection-diffusion equation to examine the implications of aggregation progressing from a three-dimensional(3D)spatial description to a model representing a system as a single box that exchanges sediment with the adjacent environment.We highlight how all models depend on some forms of parametric closure,which need to be chosen to suit the scale of aggregation adopted in the model.All such models are therefore aggregated and make use of some empirical relationships to deal with sub-scale processes.One such appropriately aggregated model,the model for the aggregated scale morphological interaction between tidal basin and adjacent coast(ASMITA),is examined in more detail and used to illustrate the insight that this level of aggregation can bring to a problem by considering how tidal inlets and estuaries are impacted by sea level rise.

Investigation and Discussion on the Beach Morphodynamic Response Under Storm Events Based on A Three-Dimensional Numerical Model

A well-established 3D phase-averaged beach morphodynamic model was applied to investigate the morphodynamics of a typical artificial beach,and a series of discussions were made on the surfzone hydro-sedimentological processes under calm and storm events.Model results revealed that the nearshore wave-induced current presents a significant 3D structure under stormy waves,where the undertow and longshore currents exist simultaneously,forming a spirallike circulation system in the surfzone.Continuous longshore sediment transport would shorten the sediment supply in the cross-shore direction,subsequently suppress the formation of sandbars,showing that a typical recovery profile under calm waves does not necessarily develop,but with a competing process of onshore drift,undertow and longshore currents.Sediment transport rate during storms reaches several hundreds of times as those under calm waves,and two storm events contribute approximately 60%to the beach erosion.Sediment transport pattern under calm waves is mainly bed load,but as the fine sands underneath begin to expose,the contribution of suspended load becomes significant.

Basic Soil Productivity of Spring Maize in Black Soil Under Long-Term Fertilization Based on DSSAT Model

Increasing basic farmland soil productivity has significance in reducing fertilizer application and maintaining high yield of crops. In this study, we defined that the basic soil productivity （BSP） is the production capacity of a farmland soil with its own physical and chemical properties for a specific crop season under local environment and field management. Based on 22-yr （1990-2011） long-term experimental data on black soil （Typic hapludoll） in Gongzhuling, Jilin Province, Northeast China, the decision support system for an agro-technology transfer （DSSAT）-CERES-Maize model was applied to simulate the yield by BSP of spring maize （Zea mays L.） to examine the effects of long-term fertilization on changes of BSP and explore the mechanisms of BSP increasing. Five treatments were examined： （1） no-fertilization control （control）; （2） chemical nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium （NPK）; （3） NPK plus farmyard manure （NPKM）; （4） 1.5 time of NPKM （1.5NPKM） and （5） NPK plus straw （NPKS）. Results showed that after 22-yr fertilization, the yield by BSP of spring maize significantly increased 78.0, 101.2, and 69.4% under the NPKM, 1.5NPKM and NPKS, respectively, compared to the initial value （in 1992）, but not significant under NPK （26.9% increase） and the control （8.9% decrease）. The contribution percentage of BSP showed a significant rising trend （P〈0.05） under 1.5NPKM. The average contribution percentage of BSP among fertilizations ranged from 74.4 to 84.7%, and ranked as 1.5NPKM〉NPKM〉NPK〉NPKS, indicating that organic manure combined with chemical fertilizers （I.5NPKM and NPKM） could more effectively increase BSP compared with the inorganic fertilizer application alone （NPK） in the black soil. This study showed that soil organic matter （SOM） was the key factor among various fertility factors that could affect BSP in the black soil, and total N, total P and/or available P also played important role in BSP increasing. Compared with the chemical fertilization, a balanced chemical plus manure or straw fertilization （NPKM or NPKS） not only increased the concentrations of soil nutrient, but also improved the soil physical properties, and structure and diversity of soil microbial population, resulting in an iincrease of BSP. We recommend that a balanced chemical plus manure or straw fertilization （NPKM or NPKS） should be the fertilization practices to enhance spring maize yield and improve BSP in the black soil of Northeast China.

Modelling long-term deformation of granular soils incorporating the concept of fractional calculus

Many constitutive models exist to characterise the cyclic behaviour of granular soils but can only simulate deformations for very limited cycles. Fractional derivatives have been regarded as one potential instrument for modelling memory-dependent phenomena. In this paper, the physical connection between the fractional derivative order and the fractal dimension of granular soils is investigated in detail. Then a modified elasto-plastic constitutive model is proposed for evaluating the long-term deformation of granular soils under cyclic loading by incorporating the concept of fac- tional calculus. To describe the flow direction of granular soils under cyclic loading, a cyclic flow potential consider- ing particle breakage is used. Test results of several types of granular soils are used to validate the model performance.

Processes,feedbacks,and morphodynamic evolution of tidal flat-marsh systems:Progress and challenges

Tidal flats and saltmarshes have been a long-standing research focus because of their high socio-economic and ecological values.The evolution of tidal flat-marsh systems is highly complex due to the intertwined processes operating over a variety of spatial and temporal scales.As a traditional research highlight,the role of regular hydrodynamic processes such as tides,waves,and river flows have been explored comprehensively with fruitful outcomes.Over past decades,the changing environment(e.g.,sea level rise,increasing anthropogenic activities,and extreme weather conditions)has attracted more attention with many reported insightful results.More recent advances indicate that biological activities play a critical role in tidal flat-marsh morphodynamics but are still poorly understood.The field of research that connects the bio-logical and physical processes is commonly described as"biogeomorphology"and requires the joint efforts by scientists from multiple dis-ciplines ranging from hydraulics,ecology,and geography to sociology.This review aims to provide a synthesis of the current research status of tidal flat-marsh morphodynamics,with a particular emphasis on the understanding of various processes and feedbacks underlying the devel-opment of morphodynamic models.Some future research needs and challenges are identified to facilitate a more sustainable management strategy for tidal flats and saltmarshes under climate change.

A numerical case study on the long-term seismic assessment of reinforced concrete tunnels in corrosive environments

The paper investigates the long-term seismic behaviour of an underground reinforced concrete(RC)metro tunnel in Santiago,Chile,considering the combined effects of chloride-induced corrosion and cumulative,low-amplitude seismic shaking on the structure’s performance.The soil-tunnel response is evaluated with the aid of transient,nonlinear finite element analysis using a two-dimensional(2D)plane strain numerical model that adopts advanced nonlinear models for the simulation of soil and concrete plasticity and the dynamic stiffness behaviour.The effects of corrosion deterioration are demonstrated in terms of time-dependent loss of rebar area and cover concrete stiffness and strength.The study illustrates the influence of ageing and repeated seismic shaking on lining deformation,crack development,and the modal characteristics of the intact and degrading systems.The results indicate that multiple lowamplitude events drive the non-degrading RC tunnel beyond its elastic regime without significant structural response consequences.A noticeable impact of corrosion deterioration on the structure’s seismic performance is revealed,increasing with the number and intensity of earthquake events.Two different tunnel embedment depths are comparatively assessed.The analyses demonstrate larger coseismic section convergence in the case of the deeper tunnel,yet a less pronounced effect of ageing and successive seismic loading compared to the shallow section,which is evident in the RC lining cracks at the end of shaking.

Modeling the Long-term Antibody Response and Duration of Immune Protection Induced by an Inactivated,Preservative-free Hepatitis A Vaccine(Healive)in Children

Objective Long-term seroprotection via the hepatitis A vaccine is essential for the prevention of disease from the hepatitis A virus(HAV).Due to documented difficulties during decade-long follow-ups after receiving vaccines,statistical-modeling approaches have been applied to predict the duration of immune protection.Methods Based on five-year follow-up data from a randomized positive-controlled trial among Chinese children(1–8 years old)following a 0,6 months vaccination schedule,a power-law model accounting for the kinetics of B-cell turnover,as well as a modified power-law model considering a memory-B-cell subpopulation,were fitted to predict the long-term immune responses induced by HAV vaccination(Healive or Havrix).Anti-HAV levels of each individual and seroconversion rates up to 30 years after vaccination were predicted.Results A total of 375 participants who completed the two-dose vaccination were included in the analysis.Both models predicted that,over a life-long period,participants vaccinated with Healive would have close but slightly higher antibody titers than those of participants vaccinated with Havrix.Additionally,consistent with previous studies,more than 90%of participants were predicted to maintain seroconversion for at least 30 years.Moreover,the modified power-law model predicted that the antibody titers would reach a plateau level after nearly 15 years post-vaccination.Conclusions Based on the results of our modeling,Healive may adequately induce long-term immune responses following a 0,6 months vaccination schedule in children via induction of memory B cells to provide stable and durable immune protection.

The Profit Model of Long-Term Lease Apartments Under Multi-Agent Supply

The acceleration of urbanization has led to an increase in the number of urban floating population, which leads to more demands for the housing rental market. With the support of policies, long-term lease apartments have begun to emerge. However, under the multi-subject supply, longterm lease apartments have encountered problems such as small profits in their development. Starting from the background of the development of long-term lease apartments, this study classified the main types of long-term lease apartments, analyzed the four profit models of comprehensive profit, expansion of rent difference, REITs and value-added services based on their business models, and proposed corresponding suggestions on the profitability of long-term lease apartments according to the current situation of profit difficulty of long-term lease apartments and the lack of profit models.

Long-term Prediction and Verification of Rainfall Based on the Seasonal Model

Using the seasonal cross-multiplication trend model, monthly precipitation of eight national basic weather stations of Shaanxi Province from 2005 to 2010 was predicted, and the forecast results were verified using the rainfall scoring rules of China Meteorological Administration. The verification results show that the average score of annual precipitation prediction in recent six years is higher than that made by a professional forecaster, so this model has a good prospect of application. Moreover, the level of making prediction is steady, and it can be widely used in long-term prediction of rainfall.

Spatially Explicit Modeling of Long-Term Drought Impacts on Crop Production in Austria

Droughts have serious and widespread impacts on crop production with substantial economic losses. The frequency and severity of drought events may increase in the future due to climate change. We have developed three meteorological drought scenarios for Austria in the period 2008-2040. The scenarios are defined based on a dry day index which is combined with bootstrapping from an observed daily weather dataset of the period 1975-2007. The severity of long-term drought scenarios is characterized by lower annual and seasonal precipitation amounts as well as more significant temperature increases compared to the observations. The long-term impacts of the drought scenarios on Austrian crop production have been analyzed with the biophysical process model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate). Our simulation outputs show that—for areas with historical mean annual precipitation sums below 850 mm— already slight increases in dryness result in significantly lower crop yields i.e. depending on the drought severity, between 0.6% and 0.9% decreases in mean annual dry matter crop yields per 1.0% decrease in mean annual precipitation sums. The EPIC results of more severe droughts show that spring and summer precipitation may become a limiting factor in crop production even in regions with historical abundant precipitation.

Short-Term and Long-Term Price Forecasting Models for the Future Exchange of Mongolian Natural Sea Buckthorn Market

Sea buckthorn market floated uncertainly within a narrow range. The market situation provided upward pressure on prices, and producer and consumer interest were poor, coupled with weak prices in the regional markets. The objectives of the study are: 1) to estimate the relationship between wild Sea buckthorn (SB) price and Supply, Demand, while some other factors of crude oil price and exchange rate by using simultaneous Supply-Demand and Price system equation and Vector Error Correction Method (VECM);2) to forecast the short-term and long-term SB price;3) to compare and evaluate the price forecasting models. Firstly, the data was analyzed by Ferris and Engle-Granger’s procedure;secondly, both price forecasting methodologies were tested by Pindyck-Rubinfeld and Makridakis’s procedure. The result shows that the VECM model is more efficient using yearly data;a short-term price forecast decreases, and a long-term price forecast is predicted to increase the Mongolian Sea buckthorn market.

A Survey on Channel Measurements and Models for Underground MIMO Communication Systems

The high reliability of the communication system is critical in metro and mining applications for personal safety,channel optimization,and improving operational performance.This paper surveys the progress of wireless communication systems in underground environments such as tunnels and mines from 1920 to 2022,including the evolution of primitive technology,advancements in channel modelling,and realization of various wireless propagation channels.In addition,the existing and advanced channel modeling strategies,which include the evolution of different technologies and their applications;mathematical,analytical,and experimental techniques for radio propagation;and significance of the radiation characteristics,antenna placement,and physical environment of multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)communication systems,are analyzed.The given study introduces leaky coaxial cable(LCX)and distributed antenna system(DAS)designs for improving narrowband and wideband channel capacity.The paper concludes by figuring out open research areas for the future technologies.

Long-Term Outcomes after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting with Risk Stratification

Background: Risk stratification of long-term outcomes for patients undergoing Coronary artery bypass grafting has enormous potential clinical importance. Aim: To develop risk stratification models for predicting long-term outcomes following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. Methods: We retrospectively revised the electronic medical records of 2330 patients who underwent adult Cardiac surgery between August 2016 and December 2022 at Madinah Cardiac Center, Saudi Arabia. Three hundred patients fulfilled the eligibility criteria of CABG operations with a complete follow-up period of at least 24 months, and data reporting. The collected data included patient demographics, comorbidities, laboratory data, pharmacotherapy, echocardiographic parameters, procedural details, postoperative data, in-hospital outcomes, and follow-up data. Our follow-up was depending on the clinical status (NYHA class), chest pain recurrence, medication dependence and echo follow-up. A univariate analysis was performed between each patient risk factor and the long-term outcome to determine the preoperative, operative, and postoperative factors significantly associated with each long-term outcome. Then a multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed with a stepwise, forward selection procedure. Significant (p < 0.05) risk factors were identified and were used as candidate variables in the development of a multivariable risk prediction model. Results: The incidence of all-cause mortality during hospital admission or follow-up period was 2.3%. Other long-term outcomes included all-cause recurrent hospitalization (9.8%), recurrent chest pain (2.4%), and the need for revascularization by using a stent in 5 (3.0%) patients. Thirteen (4.4%) patients suffered heart failure and they were on the maximum anti-failure medications. The model for predicting all-cause mortality included the preoperative EF ≤ 35% (AOR: 30.757, p = 0.061), the bypass time (AOR: 1.029, p = 0.003), and the duration of ventilation following the operation (AOR: 1.237, p = 0.021). The model for risk stratification of recurrent hospitalization comprised the preoperative EF ≤ 35% (AOR: 6.198, p p = 0.023), low postoperative cardiac output (AOR: 3.622, p = 0.007), and the development of postoperative atrial fibrillation (AOR: 2.787, p = 0.038). Low postoperative cardiac output was the only predictor that significantly contributed to recurrent chest pain (AOR: 11.66, p = 0.004). Finally, the model consisted of low postoperative cardiac output (AOR: 5.976, p < 0.001) and postoperative ventricular fibrillation (AOR: 4.216, p = 0.019) was significantly associated with an increased likelihood of the future need for revascularization using a stent. Conclusions: A risk prediction model was developed in a Saudi cohort for predicting all-cause mortality risk during both hospital admission and the follow-up period of at least 24 months after isolated CABG surgery. A set of models were also developed for predicting long-term risks of all-cause recurrent hospitalization, recurrent chest pain, heart failure, and the need for revascularization by using stents.

Spatial Pattern of Long-term Residence in the Urban Floating Population of China and its Influencing Factors

Exploring long-term residence among the urban floating population is crucial to understanding urban growth in China,particularly since the 2008 financial crisis.By using China Migrants Dynamic Survey data for 2012–2014,China Labor-force Dynamics Survey data for 2014–2016,and macroscale urban matched data,we analyzed the spatial pattern of long-term residential behavior in China’s urban floating population in 2012–2016 and developed an urban spatial utility equilibrium model containing‘macro’urban factors and‘micro’individual and household factors to explain the pattern.The results first revealed that long-term residence is defined as≥6 yr for the urban floating population in China.Second,members of this population are more likely to be long-term residents of the megacities in the three urban agglomerations in eastern China as well as of small and medium-sized cities in western and northeastern China,whereas short-term residence is more likely in cities in central China and near the three urban agglomerations.Third,urban population density and housing prices,both have a significant U-shaped effect,are main factors affecting the spatial pattern of long-term residence.