Short-Term Rolling Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Based on Multi-Task Learning with Fusion of Deviation-Angle Variance and Satellite Imagery

Tropical cyclones(TCs)are one of the most serious types of natural disasters,and accurate TC activity predictions are key to disaster prevention and mitigation.Recently,TC track predictions have made significant progress,but the ability to predict their intensity is obviously lagging behind.At present,research on TC intensity prediction takes atmospheric reanalysis data as the research object and mines the relationship between TC-related environmental factors and intensity through deep learning.However,reanalysis data are non-real-time in nature,which does not meet the requirements for operational forecasting applications.Therefore,a TC intensity prediction model named TC-Rolling is proposed,which can simultaneously extract the degree of symmetry for strong TC convective cloud and convection intensity,and fuse the deviation-angle variance with satellite images to construct the correlation between TC convection structure and intensity.For TCs'complex dynamic processes,a convolutional neural network(CNN)is used to learn their temporal and spatial features.For real-time intensity estimation,multi-task learning acts as an implicit time-series enhancement.The model is designed with a rolling strategy that aims to moderate the long-term dependent decay problem and improve accuracy for short-term intensity predictions.Since multiple tasks are correlated,the loss function of 12 h and 24 h are corrected.After testing on a sample of TCs in the Northwest Pacific,with a 4.48 kt root-mean-square error(RMSE)of 6 h intensity prediction,5.78 kt for 12 h,and 13.94 kt for 24 h,TC records from official agencies are used to assess the validity of TC-Rolling.

Multi-dimension and multi-modal rolling mill vibration prediction model based on multi-level network fusion

Mill vibration is a common problem in rolling production,which directly affects the thickness accuracy of the strip and may even lead to strip fracture accidents in serious cases.The existing vibration prediction models do not consider the features contained in the data,resulting in limited improvement of model accuracy.To address these challenges,this paper proposes a multi-dimensional multi-modal cold rolling vibration time series prediction model(MDMMVPM)based on the deep fusion of multi-level networks.In the model,the long-term and short-term modal features of multi-dimensional data are considered,and the appropriate prediction algorithms are selected for different data features.Based on the established prediction model,the effects of tension and rolling force on mill vibration are analyzed.Taking the 5th stand of a cold mill in a steel mill as the research object,the innovative model is applied to predict the mill vibration for the first time.The experimental results show that the correlation coefficient(R^(2))of the model proposed in this paper is 92.5%,and the root-mean-square error(RMSE)is 0.0011,which significantly improves the modeling accuracy compared with the existing models.The proposed model is also suitable for the hot rolling process,which provides a new method for the prediction of strip rolling vibration.

Prediction of Rolling Load in Hot Strip Mill byInnovations Feedback Neural Networks

Because the structure of the classical mathematical model of rolling load is simple, even with the self-adapting technology, it is difficult to accommodate the increasing dimensional accuracy. Motivated by this fact, an Innovations Feedback Neural Networks （IFNN） was presented based on the idea of Kalman prediction. The neural networks used the Back Propagation （BP） algorithm and applied it to the prediction of rolling load in hot strip mill. The theoretical results and the off-line simulation show that the prediction capability of IFNN is better than that of normal BP networks, namely, for the prediction of the rolling load in hot strip mill, the prediction precision of IFNN is higher than that of normal BP networks. Finally, a relative complete rolling load prediction system was developed on Windows 2003/XP platform using the OOP programming method and the SQL server2000 database. With this sys- tem, the rolling load of a 1700 strip mill was calculated, and the prediction results obtained correspond well with the field data. It shows that IFNN is valid for rolling load prediction.

MENDED GENETIC BP NETWORK AND APPLICATION TO ROLLING FORCE PREDICTION OF 4-STAND TANDEM COLD STRIP MILL

In order to make good use of the ability to approach any function of BP (backpropagation) network and overcome its local astringency, and also make good use of the overallsearch ability of GA (genetic algorithms), a proposal to regulate the network's weights using bothGA and BP algorithms is suggested. An integrated network system of MGA (mended genetic algorithms)and BP algorithms has been established. The MGA-BP network's functions consist of optimizing GAperformance parameters, the network's structural parameters, performance parameters, and regulatingthe network's weights using both GA and BP algorithms. Rolling forces of 4-stand tandem cold stripmill are predicted by the MGA-BP network, and good results are obtained.

Fatigue Life Prediction of Rolling Bearings Based on Modified SWT Mean Stress Correction

The existing engineering empirical life analysis models are not capable of considering the constitutive behavior of materials under contact loads;as a consequence,these methods may not be accurate to predict fatigue lives of roll-ing bearings.In addition,the contact stress of bearing in operation is cyclically pulsating,it also means that the bear-ing undergo non-symmetrical fatigue loadings.Since the mean stress has great effects on fatigue life,in this work,a novel fatigue life prediction model based on the modified SWT mean stress correction is proposed as a basis of which to estimate the fatigue life of rolling bearings,in which,takes sensitivity of materials and mean stress into account.A compensation factor is introduced to overcome the inaccurate predictions resulted from the Smith,Watson,and Topper(SWT)model that considers the mean stress effect and sensitivity while assuming the sensitivity coefficient of all materials to be 0.5.Moreover,the validation of the model is finalized by several practical experimental data and the comparison to the conventional SWT model.The results show the better performance of the proposed model,especially in the accuracy than the existing SWT model.This research will shed light on a new direction for predicting the fatigue life of rolling bearings.

Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Rolling Element Bearings Based on Different Degradation Stages and Particle Filter

A method is proposed to improve the accuracy of remaining useful life prediction for rolling element bearings,based on a state space model(SSM)with different degradation stages and a particle filter.The model is improved by a method based on the Paris formula and the Foreman formula allowing the establishment of different degradation stages.The remaining useful life of rolling element bearings can be predicted by the adjusted model with inputs of physical data and operating status information.The late operating trend is predicted by the use of the particle filter algorithm.The rolling bearing full life experimental data validate the proposed method.Further,the prediction result is compared with the single SSM and the Gamma model,and the results indicate that the predicted accuracy of the proposed method is higher with better practicability.

Analysis of Hot Rolling Routes of AZ31B Magnesium Alloy and Prediction of Tensile Property of Hot-rolled Sheets

At the initial rolling temperature of 250 to 400 ℃, AZ31B magnesium alloy sheets were hot rolled by four different rolling routes. Microstructures and mechanical properties of the hot-rolled magnesium alloy sheets were analyzed by optical microscope and tensile tests respectively. Based on the Hall-Petch relation, considering the average grain size and grain size distribution, the nonlinear fitting analysis between the tensile strength and average grain size was carried on, and then the prediction model of tensile strength of hot-rolled AZ31B magnesium alloy sheet was established. The results indicate that, by rolling with multi-pass cross rolling, uniform, fine and equiaxial grain microstructures can be produced, the anisotropy of hot-rolled magnesium sheet can also be effectively weakened. Strong correlation was observed between the average grain size and tensile property of the hot-rolled magnesium alloy sheet. Grain size distribution coefficient d（CV） was introduced to reflect the dispersion degree about a set of grain size data, and then the Hall-Petch relation was perfected. Ultimately, the prediction accuracy of tensile strength of multi-pass hot-rolled AZ31B magnesium alloy was improved, and the prediction of tensile property can be performed by the model.

Development of a new Cox model for predicting long-term survival in hepatitis cirrhosis patients underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts

BACKGROUND Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)placement is a procedure that can effectively treat complications of portal hypertension,such as variceal bleeding and refractory ascites.However,there have been no specific studies on predicting long-term survival after TIPS placement.AIM To establish a model to predict long-term survival in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis after TIPS.METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted on a cohort of 224 patients who un-derwent TIPS implantation.Through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses,various factors were examined for their ability to predict survival at 6 years after TIPS.Consequently,a composite score was formulated,encompassing the indication,shunt reasonability,portal venous pressure gradient(PPG)after TIPS,percentage decrease in portal venous pressure(PVP),indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min(ICGR15)and total bilirubin(Tbil)level.Furthermore,the performance of the newly developed Cox(NDC)model was evaluated in an in-ternal validation cohort and compared with that of a series of existing models.RESULTS The indication(variceal bleeding or ascites),shunt reasonability(reasonable or unreasonable),ICGR15,post-operative PPG,percentage of PVP decrease and Tbil were found to be independent factors affecting long-term survival after TIPS placement.The NDC model incorporated these parameters and successfully identified patients at high risk,exhibiting a notably elevated mortality rate following the TIPS procedure,as observed in both the training and validation cohorts.Additionally,in terms of predicting the long-term survival rate,the performance of the NDC model was significantly better than that of the other four models[Child-Pugh,model for end-stage liver disease(MELD),MELD-sodium and the Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival].CONCLUSION The NDC model can accurately predict long-term survival after the TIPS procedure in patients with hepatitis cirrhosis,help identify high-risk patients and guide follow-up management after TIPS implantation.

The long-term prediction of the oil-contaminated water from the Sanchi collision in the East China Sea

The condensate and bunker oil leaked from the Sanchi collision would cause a persistent impact on marine ecosystems in the surrounding areas. The long-term prediction for the distribution of the oil-polluted water and the information for the most affected regions would provide valuable information for the oceanic environment protection and pollution assessment. Based on the operational forecast system developed by the First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, we precisely predicted the drifting path of the oil tanker Sanchi after its collision. Trajectories of virtual oil particles show that the oil leaked from the Sanchi after it sank is mainly transported to the northeastern part of the sink location, and quickly goes to the open ocean along with the Kuroshio. Risk probability analysis based on the outcomes from the operational forecast system for years 2009 to2017 shows that the most affected area is at the northeast of the sink location.

Long-term Traffic Volume Prediction Based on K-means Gaussian Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Sets

This paper uses Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy se theory on historical traffic volume data processing to obtain a 24-hour prediction of traffic volume with high precision. A K-means clustering method is used in this paper to get 5 minutes traffic volume variation as input data for the Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy sets which can reflect the distribution of historical traffic volume in one statistical period. Moreover, the cluster with the largest collection of data obtained by K-means clustering method is calculated to get the key parameters of type-2 fuzzy sets, mean and standard deviation of the Gaussian membership function.Using the range of data as the input of Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy sets leads to the range of traffic volume forecasting output with the ability of describing the possible range of the traffic volume as well as the traffic volume prediction data with high accuracy. The simulation results show that the average relative error is reduced to 8% based on the combined K-means Gaussian interval type-2 fuzzy sets forecasting method. The fluctuation range in terms of an upper and a lower forecasting traffic volume completely envelopes the actual traffic volume and reproduces the fluctuation range of traffic flow.

Strength prediction of multi-layered copper-based composites fabricated by accumulative roll bonding

This work aims to evaluate the feasibility of the fabrication of nanostructured Cu/Al/Ag multi-layered composites by accumulative roll bonding(ARB),and to analyze the tensile properties and electrical conductivity of the produced composites.A theoretical model using strengthening mechanisms and some structural parameters extracted from X-ray diffraction is also developed to predict the tensile strength of the composites.It was found that by progression of ARB,the experimental and calculated tensile strengths are enhanced,reach a maximum of about 450 and 510 MPa at the fifth cycle of ARB,respectively and then are reduced.The electrical conductivity decreased slightly by increasing the number of ARB cycles at initial ARB cycles,but the decrease was intensified at the final ARB cycles.In conclusion,the merit of ARB to fabricate this type of multi-layered nanocomposites and the accuracy of the developed model to predict tensile strength were realized.

Research on the Control Strategy of Micro Wind-Hydrogen Coupled System Based on Wind Power Prediction and Hydrogen Storage System Charging/Discharging Regulation

This paper addresses the micro wind-hydrogen coupled system,aiming to improve the power tracking capability of micro wind farms,the regulation capability of hydrogen storage systems,and to mitigate the volatility of wind power generation.A predictive control strategy for the micro wind-hydrogen coupled system is proposed based on the ultra-short-term wind power prediction,the hydrogen storage state division interval,and the daily scheduled output of wind power generation.The control strategy maximizes the power tracking capability,the regulation capability of the hydrogen storage system,and the fluctuation of the joint output of the wind-hydrogen coupled system as the objective functions,and adaptively optimizes the control coefficients of the hydrogen storage interval and the output parameters of the system by the combined sigmoid function and particle swarm algorithm(sigmoid-PSO).Compared with the real-time control strategy,the proposed predictive control strategy can significantly improve the output tracking capability of the wind-hydrogen coupling system,minimize the gap between the actual output and the predicted output,significantly enhance the regulation capability of the hydrogen storage system,and mitigate the power output fluctuation of the wind-hydrogen integrated system,which has a broad practical application prospect.

A Simple Prediction Formula of Roll Damping of Conventional Cargo Ships on the Basis of Ikeda＇s Method and Its Limitation

Since the roll damping of ships has significant effects of viscosity, it is difficult to calculate it theoretically. Therefore, experimental results or some prediction methods are used to get the roll damping in design stage of ships. Among some prediction methods, Ikeda＇s one is widely used in many ship motion computer programs. Using the method, the roll damping of various ship hulls with various bilge keels can be calculated to investigate its characteristics. To calculate the roll damping of each ship, detailed data of the ship are needed to input. Therefore, a simpler prediction method is expected in primary design stage. Such a simple method must be useful to validate the results obtained by a computer code to predict it on the basis of Ikeda＇s method, too. On the basis of the predicted roll damping by Ikeda＇s method for various ships, a very simple prediction formula of the roll damping of ships is deduced in the present paper. Ship hull forms are systematically changed by changing length, beam, draft, mid-ship sectional coefficient and prismatic coefficient. It is found, however, that this simple formula can not be used for ships that have high position of the center of gravity. A modified method to improve accuracy for such ships is proposed.

Predicting Reliability and Remaining Useful Life of Rolling Bearings Based on Optimized Neural Networks

In this study,an optimized long short-term memory(LSTM)network is proposed to predict the reliability and remaining useful life(RUL)of rolling bearings based on an improved whale-optimized algorithm(IWOA).The multi-domain features are extracted to construct the feature dataset because the single-domain features are difficult to characterize the performance degeneration of the rolling bearing.To provide covariates for reliability assessment,a kernel principal component analysis is used to reduce the dimensionality of the features.A Weibull distribution proportional hazard model(WPHM)is used for the reliability assessment of rolling bearing,and a beluga whale optimization(BWO)algorithm is combined with maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)to improve the estimation accuracy of the model parameters of the WPHM,which provides the data basis for predicting reliability.Considering the possible gradient explosion by training the rolling bearing lifetime data and the difficulties in selecting the key network parameters,an optimized LSTM network called the improved whale optimization algorithm-based long short-term memory(IWOA-LSTM)network is proposed.As IWOA better jumps out of the local optimization,the fitting and prediction accuracies of the network are correspondingly improved.The experimental results show that compared with the whale optimization algorithm-based long short-term memory(WOA-LSTM)network,the reliability prediction and RUL prediction accuracies of the rolling bearing are improved by the proposed IWOA-LSTM network.

Artificial neural network prediction of mechanical properties of hot rolled low carbon steel strip

Conventionally, direct tensile tests are employed to measure mechanical properties of industrially pro- duced products. In mass production, the cost of sampling and labor is high, which leads to an increase of total pro- duction cost and a decrease of production efficiency. The main purpose of this paper is to develop an intelligent pro- gram based on artificial neural network （ANN） to predict the mechanical properties of a commercial grade hot rolled low carbon steel strip, SPHC. A neural network model was developed by using 7 x 5 x 1 back-propagation （BP） neural network structure to determine the multiple relationships among chemical composition, product pro- cess and mechanical properties. Industrial on-line application of the model indicated that prediction results were in good agreement with measured values. It showed that 99.2 % of the products＇ tensile strength was accurately pre- dicted within an error margin of ~ 10 %, compared to measured values. Based on the model, the effects of chemical composition and hot rolling process on mechanical properties were derived and the relative importance of each in- put parameter was evaluated by sensitivity analysis. All the results demonstrate that the developed ANN models are capable of accurate predictions under real-time industrial conditions. The developed model can be used to sub- stitute mechanical property measurement and therefore reduce cost of production. It can also be used to control and optimize mechanical properties of the investigated steel.

New scheme of anticipating synchronization for arbitrary anticipation time and its application to long-term prediction of chaotic states

How to predict the dynamics of nonlinear chaotic systems is still a challenging subject with important real-life applications. The present paper deals with this important yet difficult problem via a new scheme of anticipating synchronization. A global, robust, analytical and delay-independent sufficient condition is obtained to guarantee the existence of anticipating synchronization manifold theoretically in the framework of the Krasovskii-Lyapunov theory. Different from ＇traditional techniques （or regimes）＇ proposed in the previous literature, the present scheme guarantees that the receiver system can synchronize with the future state of a transmitter system for an arbitrarily long anticipation time, which allows one to predict the dynamics of chaotic transmitter at any point of time if necessary. Also it is simple to implement in practice. A classical chaotic system is employed to demonstrate the application of the proposed scheme to the long-term prediction of chaotic states.

A Model to Predict Rolling Force of Finishing Stands with RBF Neural Networks

In view of intrinsic imperfection of traditional models of rolling force, in ord er to improve the prediction accuracy of rolling force, a new method combining radial basis function(RBF) neural networks with traditional models to predict rolling f orce was proposed. The off-line simulation indicates that the predicted results are much more accurate than that with traditional models.

Long-term Prediction and Verification of Rainfall Based on the Seasonal Model

Using the seasonal cross-multiplication trend model, monthly precipitation of eight national basic weather stations of Shaanxi Province from 2005 to 2010 was predicted, and the forecast results were verified using the rainfall scoring rules of China Meteorological Administration. The verification results show that the average score of annual precipitation prediction in recent six years is higher than that made by a professional forecaster, so this model has a good prospect of application. Moreover, the level of making prediction is steady, and it can be widely used in long-term prediction of rainfall.

Dynamic GM（1,1） Model Based on Cubic Spline for Electricity Consumption Prediction in Smart Grid

Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in smart grid expansion planning.In this paper,we present a dynamic GM(1,1) model based on grey system theory and cubic spline function interpolation principle.Using piecewise polynomial interpolation thought,this model can dynamically predict the general trend of time series data.Combined with low-order polynomial,the cubic spline interpolation has smaller error,avoids the Runge phenomenon of high-order polynomial,and has better approximation effect.Meanwhile,prediction is implemented with the newest information according to the rolling and feedback mechanism and fluctuating error is controlled well to improve prediction accuracy in time-varying environment.Case study using the living electricity consumption data of Jiangsu province in 2008 is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

A Lightweight Temporal Convolutional Network for Human Motion Prediction

A lightweight multi-layer residual temporal convolutional network model(RTCN)is proposed to target the highly complex kinematics and temporal correlation of human motion.RTCN uses 1-D convolution to efficiently obtain the spatial structure information of human motion and extract the correlation in the time series of human motion.The residual structure is applied to the proposed network model to alleviate the problem of gradient disappearance in the deep network.Experiments on the Human 3.6M dataset demonstrate that the proposed method effectively reduces the errors of motion prediction compared with previous methods,especially of long-term prediction.