The pattern characteristics of the tendency variations of earth resistivity and its relation to earthquakes

Through systematically summarizing the observational data of earth resistivity during 26 years from nearly a hundred stations in China, the author found that the pattern of the earth resistivity (ρs) tendency variations,based on monthly average data, could be divided into five types, three types of which were defined as anomalous variation, which have different qualitative and quantitative characteristics and different relations with earthquakes as well.The first type of tendency variation called “funnel” is related to strong earthquakes, the Second type called “scoop” has good corresponding relation with moderate earthquakes, and the third type called “tilt” has no relation with earthquakes. Preliminary discussions about the relations between the three types of ρs tendency variation patterns and earthquakes are made in this paper, according to the experimental results of pressed rocks. It is concluded that the different patterns of ρs tendency variation actually reflect the different stress conditions of underground soil-rock layers: the “funnel” type reflects high stress status, the “scoop” type shows moderate stress condition and the “tilt” type is related to stress relief. All of such knowledges mentioned above are very useful in making accurate medium-term earthquake prediction.

Long-term variation of storm surge-associated waves in the Bohai Sea

When investigating the long-term variation of wave characteristics as associated with storm surges in the Bohai Sea,the Simulating Waves Nearshore(SWAN)model and Advanced CIRCulation(ADCIRC)model were coupled to simulate 32 storm surges between 1985 and 2014.This simulation was validated by reproducing three actual wave processes,showing that the simulated significant wave height(SWH)and mean wave period agreed well with the actual measurements.In addition,the long-term variations in SWH,pattems in SWH extremes along the Bohai Sea coast,the 100-year retum period SWH extreme distribution,and waves conditional probability distribution were calculated and analyzed.We find that the trend of SWH extremes in most of the coastal stations was negative,among which the largest trend was-0.03 m/a in the western part of Liaodong Bay.From the 100-year return period of the SWH distribution calculated in the Gumbel method,we find that the SWH extremes associated with storm surges decreased gradually from the center of the Bohai Sea to the coast.In addition,the joint probability of wave and surge for the entire Bohai Sea in 100-year return period was determined by the Gumbel logistic method.We therefore,assuming a minimum surge of one meter across the entire Bohai Sea,obtained the spatial SWH distribution.The conclusions of this study are significant for offshore and coastal engineering design.

LONG-TERM VARIATIONS OF FOG AND MIST IN China's Mainland DURING 1951-2005

Fog is an important indicator of weather. Long-term variations of fog and mist were studied byanalyzing the meteorological data from 743 surface weather stations in China's Mainland during 1951-2005.In climatology, there are more foggy days in the southeast than in the northwest China and more in thewinter half of the year than in the summer half. The decadal change of foggy days shows regional variation.Southwest China is the region with the most foggy days, and more than 20 foggy days occur in SichuanBasin in one year. Persistent heavy fog usually appears in winter and spring over the North China Plain andNortheast China Plain. Misty days are much more frequent in the provinces south of the Yangtze River thanin the regions north of it, and there is an obvious increase of misty days after the 1980s. Southwest China isthe area with the most number of misty days, and more than 100 misty days occur in Sichuan Basin in ayear.

Dew amount and its long-term variation in the Kunes River Valley,Northwest China

Dew is an essential water resource for the survival and reproduction of organisms in arid and semi-arid regions.Yet estimating the dew amount and quantifying its long-term variation are challenging.In this study,we elucidate the dew amount and its long-term variation in the Kunes River Valley,Northwest China,based on the measured daily dew amount and reconstructed values(using meteorological data from 1980 to 2021),respectively.Four key results were found:(1)the daily mean dew amount was 0.05 mm during the observation period(4 July-12 August and 13 September-7 October of 2021).In 35 d of the observation period(i.e.,73%of the observation period),the daily dew amount exceeded the threshold(>0.03 mm/d)for microorganisms;(2)air temperature,relative humidity,and wind speed had significant impacts on the daily dew amount based on the relationships between the measured dew amount and meteorological variables;(3)for estimating the daily dew amount,random forest(RF)model outperformed multiple linear regression(MLR)model given its larger R^(2) and lower MAE and RMSE;and(4)the dew amount during June-October and in each month did not vary significantly from 1980 to the beginning of the 21^(st) century.It then significantly decreased for about a decade,after it increased slightly from 2013 to 2021.For the whole meteorological period of 1980-2021,the dew amount decreased significantly during June-October and in July and September,and there was no significant variation in June,August,and October.Variation in the dew amount in the Kunes River Valley was mainly driven by relative humidity.This study illustrates that RF model can be used to reconstruct long-term variation in the dew amount,which provides valuable information for us to better understand the dew amount and its relationship with climate change.

The seasonal variations in the significant wave height and sea surface wind speed of the China's seas

Long-term variations in a sea surface wind speed （WS） and a significant wave height （SWH） are associated with the global climate change, the prevention and mitigation of natural disasters, and an ocean resource exploitation, and other activities. The seasonal characteristics of the long-term trends in China＇s seas WS and SWH are determined based on 24 a （1988-2011） cross-calibrated, multi-platform （CCMP） wind data and 24 a hindcast wave data obtained with the WAVEWATCH-III （WW3） wave model forced by CCMP wind data. The results show the following. （1） For the past 24 a, the China＇s WS and SWH exhibit a significant increasing trend as a whole, of 3.38 cm/（s.a） in the WS, 1.3 cm/a in the SWH. （2） As a whole, the increasing trend of the China＇s seas WS and SWH is strongest in March-April-May （MAM） and December-January-February （DJF）, followed by June-July-August （JJA）, and smallest in September-October-November （SON）. （3） The areal extent of significant increases in the WS was largest in MAM, while the area decreased in JJA and DJF; the smallest area was apparent in SON. In contrast to the WS, almost all of China＇s seas exhibited a significant increase in SWH in MAM and DJF; the range was slightly smaller in JJA and SON. The WS and SWH in the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, the Tsushima Strait, the Taiwan Strait, the northern South China Sea, the Beibu Gull and the Gulf of Thailand exhibited a significant increase in all seasons. （4） The variations in China＇s seas SWH and WS depended on the season. The areas with a strong increase usually appeared in DJF.

PECULIARITIES OF LONG TERM VARIATION OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN

It is necessary to study the tropical western Pacific SST in association with variations of other parts of the globe. Two basic compositions are revealed of long-term variation in SST over three major tropical oceans since the 1950’s (linear warming and El Ni?o-La Ni?a oscillations) and typical patterns with which they are displayed over the oceans are compared. On the basis of it, difference in long-term variation of SST over western, central and eastern tropical Pacific is analyzed in details. It is pointed out that the El Ni?o-La Ni?a oscillations are relatively weak in the long-term variation of SST in the tropical western Pacific and linear warming trend there is replaced by interdecadal oscillations. Further understanding of the peculiarity over the region helps improve short-term climatic predictions in China.

Variations in the Summer Monsoon Rainbands Across Eastern China over the Past 300 Years

Based on reconstructions of precipitation events from the rain and snowfall archives of the Qing Dynasty （1736-1911）, the drought/flood index data mainly derived from Chinese local gazettes from 1736-2000, and the observational data gathered since 1951, the spatial patterns of monsoon rainbands are analyzed at different time scales. Findings indicate that monsoon rainfall in northern China and the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River have significant inter-annual （e.g., 5-7-yr and 2-4-yr） as well as inter-decadal （e.g., 20-30-yr and quasi-10-yr） fluctuation signals. The spatial patterns in these areas also show significant cycles, such as on a 60-80-yr time scale, a reversal phase predominates the entire period from 1736-2000; on a quasi-30-yr time scale, a consistent phase was prevalent from 1736 to 2000; and on a 20-yr time scale, the summer monsoon rains show different spatial patterns before and after 1870.

Variation Characteristics of Sunshine Hours and Its Reason Analysis over Loess Plateau of Shaanxi

[Objective] The research aimed to study variation characteristics of sunshine hours over Loess Plateau of Shaanxi during 1961-2010.[Method] By using the climate tendency rate,climate trend coefficient and linear correlation,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of sunshine hours in Loess Plateau of Shaanxi in recent 50 years were analyzed.Moreover,the main reason for inducing variation of sunshine hours in the zone was discussed.[Result] In recent 50 years,the variation of annual sunshine hours in Loess Plateau of Shaanxi mainly presented decrease trend.The decrease zones were mainly located in windy desert region along the Great Wall line,central loess hilly region,most areas of plateau remains region and most areas of arid plateau region in north Weihe River.The increase zones were mainly located in west and northeast plateau remains region,southwest plateau remains region,some areas of arid plateau region in north Weihe River.Seen from four-season variation trend,except in spring,the sunshine hours in other seasons presented varying decrease trends.The decrease amplitude in summer was 24.34 h/10 a,and was the most significant.The second one was-16.62 h/10 a in winter.The decrease amplitude in winter was 3.55 h/10 a,and was unobvious.Seen from spatial variation,the annual sunshine hours presented significant increase trend in Mizhi of loess hilly region and significant decrease trend in Dingbian,Shenmu of windy desert region along the Great Wall line,Qingjian,Yanchuan of plateau remains region,Longxian,Fengxiang,Chunhua and Hancheng of arid plateau region in north Weihe River.There was no obvious variation trend in other research zones.The annual and four-season sunshine hours all presented negative correlations with rainfall,relative humidity,total cloud amount,low cloud amount,water vapor pressure and fog days.The sunshine hours presented positive correlation with visibility.The correlation coefficients between sunshine hours and relative humidity,rainfall,total cloud amount,water vapor pressure,fog days and visibility were all bigger in each region.[Conclusion] The research provided basis for analyzing climate variation over Loess Plateau of Shaanxi.

西北四省太阳能资源分布与长期变化趋势分析

根据我国西北四省1978—2017年的观测数据,分析该区域太阳总曝辐量的空间分布特征,绘制太阳能资源区划图,并分析了以往研究中未涉及的太阳总曝辐量长期变化趋势。结果表明:西北四省多年平均年太阳总曝辐量为3 676~7 036 MJ/m^(2),且自西北向东南逐渐递减,高值区主要在青海大部、甘肃河西西部、宁夏大部与陕西北部。各季节太阳总曝辐量分布特征为夏季最高、春秋季次之、冬季最低。西北四省大部分地区太阳总曝辐量长期变化呈减少趋势,少部地区呈增加趋势,其中青海中西部区域减少最为明显,甘肃河西西部与武威地区、陕北部分地区增加趋势明显。在四季中,秋季太阳总曝辐量呈减少趋势的范围最大,春季太阳总曝辐量呈增加趋势的范围最大。研究结果对掌握西北四省太阳能资源的长期变化趋势与光伏电厂长期收益及风险防范有参考价值。

山西省1961—2022年典型区域降水变化特征分析

基于山西省典型区域(晋北地区、太原市和晋南地区)1961—2022年22个国家气象观测站的降水资料,应用气候倾向率、M-K(Mann-Kendall)趋势分析和突变检验方法,探究山西省典型区域的降水变化特征。结果表明:(1)近62年,山西省典型区域降水量符合山西省北少南多的纬向分布特征,且南部降水年际波动幅度较北部大。(2)三地降水分配情况均为夏季>秋季>春季>冬季,晋南地区夏季降水占比低于晋北地区和太原市,而春秋冬季降水占比高于两地。(3)降水年际变化趋势不同,晋北地区年降水呈增加趋势,太原市和晋南地区呈减少趋势。M-K突变分析表明,太原市和晋南地区年降水量在1965年发生了由多到少的突变,此外2020年左右太原市仍存在降水突变。(4)三地不同阶段变化趋势相同,1961—1981年为波动减少的多雨期,1982—2002年为波动减少的少雨期,1983—2022年为波动增加的多雨期。(5)四季降水变化趋势不同,晋北地区和太原市除夏季呈减少趋势外,春、秋、冬季呈现不同程度的增加趋势;晋南地区除冬季呈较显著增加趋势外,春、夏、秋季呈不同程度的减少趋势;各地四季降水均量存在不同程度的突变。

新疆农业碳排放时空特征及驱动因素研究

【目的】研究新疆农业碳排放的时空特征及驱动因素,为该地区推动农业农村绿色发展、实现“双碳”目标提供参考。【方法】以种植业、畜牧业、农业能源终端消费的19类碳源为原始数据,对2007—2021年新疆农业碳排放量和碳排放强度进行测算;以种植业和畜牧业的15类碳源为原始数据,对2010、2015、2020年新疆14个地州(市)碳排放量和碳排放强度进行测算;运用LMDI(对数平均除以指数法)模型对其驱动因素进行分析;运用灰色预测模型对新疆2022—2030年农业碳排放的发展进行趋势预测。【结果】2007—2021年新疆农业碳排放量总体呈现“平稳—上升—下降—上升”的趋势,农业碳排放强度总体呈现“下降—上升—下降”的趋势;2010、2015、2020年伊犁哈萨克自治州碳排放总量最高、克拉玛依碳排放总量最低、克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州碳排放强度最高,2010年巴音郭楞蒙古自治州碳排放强度最低,2015、2020年吐鲁番碳排放强度最低;农业碳排放驱动因素影响大小为:农业经济水平效应>农业结构效应>农业人口规模效应>农业生产效率;2022—2030年,预测新疆的农业碳排放量呈现增长趋势、强度呈现下降趋势。【结论】2007—2021年新疆农业碳排放总量整体呈现上升趋势,农业碳排放强度整体呈现下降趋势;农业经济水平效应对农业碳排放的增加有促进作用,农业结构效应、农业人口规模效应、农业生产效率对农业碳排放的增加有抑制作用;预计在2022—2030年,新疆农业碳排放量将逐年增加、农业碳排放强度将逐年下降,新疆农业减排固碳潜力巨大。

Long-term variation and evaluation of air quality across Hong Kong region

Study of Air Quality Objectives(AQOs)and long-term changes of air pollution plays a decisive role in formulating and refining pollution control strategies.In this study,10-year variations of six major air pollutants were analyzed at seven monitoring sites in Hong Kong region.The continuous decrease of annual averaged concentrations of NO_(2),SO_(2),CO,PM_(2.5)and PM_(10)and numbers of days with severe pollution conditions validated the efficiency of the series of air pollution control schemes implemented by the Hong Kong region government.However,there is still a big gap to meet the ultimate targets described by the World Health Organization.Besides,the concentration of O_(3)at roadside and urban stations increased by 135%±25%and 37%±18%from 2011 to 2020,respectively,meanwhile the highest 8 hr averaged O_(3)concentration was observed as 294μg/m^(3)at background station in 2020,which pointed out the increasing ozone pollution in Hong Kong region.There was a great decrease in the annual times of air quality health index(AQHI)laying in“high”,“very high”and“serious”categories from 2011 to 2020 with the decrease rate of 89.70%,91.30%and 89.74%at roadside stations,and 79.03%,95.98%and 72.73%at urban stations,respectively.Nevertheless,the number of days categorized as“high”or above at roadside station was twice more than that in the urban station during the past ten years.Thus,more policies and attentions should be given to the roadside air quality and its adverse health effect to pedestrians on street.

Under-ice ambient noise in the Arctic Ocean: observations at the long-term ice station

Under-ice ambient noise in the Arctic Ocean is studied using the data recorded by autonomous hydrophones at the long-term ice station during the 9th Chinese National Arctic Research Expedition.Time-frequency analysis of two 7-s-long ice-induced noise samples shows that both ice collision and ice breaking noise have many outliers in the time-domain(impulsive characteristic)and abundant frequency components in the frequency-domain.Ice collision noise lasts for several seconds while the duration of ice breaking noise is much shorter(i.e.,less than tens of milliseconds).Gaussian distribution and symmetric alpha stable(sαs)distribution are used in this paper to fit the impulsive under-ice noise.The sαs distribution can achieve better performance as it can track the heavy tails of impulsive noise while Gaussian distribution fails.This paper also analyzes the meteorological variables during the under-ice noise observation experiment and deduces that the impulsive ambient noise was caused by the combined force of high wind speed and increasing atmosphere temperature on the ice canopy.The Pearson correlation coefficients between long-term power spectral density variations of under-ice ambient noise and meteorological variables are also studied in this paper.

1605年琼山M 7½级地震区现今地应力动态变化特征及对东寨港沉陷的指示意义

文章利用1605年琼山7½级地震区不同区块布设的3个地应力监测台站应变观测数据,进行了地应力动态变化分析并对其记录的应力突变信息进行了提取,分析了2016年3月—2018年5月地应力变化与构造活动情况,并探讨了东寨港地貌演化趋势及其沉陷机理。结果显示:研究区总体受北西向挤压应力场作用,使得位于马袅-铺前断裂与铺前-清澜断裂上盘的演丰和大致坡地区以拉张应力场为主,位于断层下盘的锦山地区以挤压应力场为主;马袅-铺前断裂和铺前-清澜断裂在区域应力场作用下,不断进行非震活动来调整局部应力场,其中,马袅-铺前断裂在2016年3—7月、2017年10月和2018年4月有过多次活动,铺前-清澜断裂在2017年10月和2018年4月有过2次活动,马袅-铺前断裂较铺前-清澜断裂活动能量强;应力场变化趋势指示以铺前-清澜断裂(F13-1)为界,东部有逐步抬升趋势,西部的东寨港可能还会持续沉降;断层活动趋势指示以马袅-铺前断裂(F2-2)为界,东寨港北部演丰地区的沉降速率应该大于南部三江地区;此外,体应变监测数据也指示了位于海南岛南北地震带下部的岩浆活动痕迹。综合研究认为,东寨港沉陷主要受深部岩浆上涌导致的马袅-铺前断裂与铺前-清澜断裂的正断活动控制,并受到全新世海平面变化与软土沉积地层性质导致软土流滑、砂土液化以及海水侵蚀等多方面影响。文章创新性的将钻孔应变观测技术应用于探索海岸带地区典型震陷地貌演化规律与趋势研究,在地应力监测与构造地貌研究领域都有着重要的学术价值,同时,该成果对东寨港地区红树林保护、城镇规划建设等方面亦具有重要的应用价值。

1990-2019年中国炎症性肠病疾病负担及变化趋势分析

背景炎症性肠病近年来发病率高,具有病程迁延、疾病负担重等特点,但目前缺乏中国炎症性肠病疾病负担的数据,这可能会阻碍此疾病的医疗保健规划和资源分配。目的调查1990—2019年我国炎症性肠病疾病负担及变化趋势,分析年龄、性别和时期对炎症性肠病的影响。方法利用2019年全球疾病负担数据库,收集1990—2019年中国炎症性肠病发病率、死亡率和伤残调整寿命年(DALY)率数据;采用Joinpoint软件分析炎症性肠病的标化发病率、标化死亡率、标化DALY率变化趋势及特征,利用Excel 2019软件进行数据整理。结果1990—2019年我国炎症性肠病标化发病率从1.47/10万上升到3.01/10万,平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)为2.5%〔95%CI(2.4%,2.6%)〕,标化死亡率从0.86/10万下降到0.35/10万,AAPC为-1.6%〔95%CI(-3.8%,-3.4%)〕,标化DALY率从24.47/10万下降到16.31/10万,AAPC为-2.2%〔95%CI(-2.3%,-2.0%)〕,趋势变化均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。各年度男性标化发病率、死亡率高于女性,而标化DALY率在1995年之前女性高于男性,1995—2001年男性与女性基本一致,2001年之后男性高于女性。各年度各年龄段炎症性肠病标化发病率AAPC呈整体平稳上升趋势(P<0.05);各年龄段标化死亡率AAPC呈整体下降趋势,但是随着年龄的增大下降趋势变缓(P<0.05)。结论1990—2019年,我国炎症性肠病标化死亡率和标化DALY率呈下降趋势,标化发病率呈上升趋势。各年度男性标化发病率、死亡率均高于女性。高龄人群炎症性肠病疾病负担问题值得重点关注,鉴于中国庞大的人口基数和人口老龄化,炎症性肠病在中国的负担将是一个重大的公共卫生挑战。

1952—2020年湖南省降雪天气的气候变化特征

基于湖南省96个国家地面气象观测站1952—2020年基本气象数据,分析降雪日数、积雪日数、积雪初日、积雪终日、积雪过程、最长积雪持续时间、最大积雪深度7项指标的变化特征.结果表明:湖南省降雪主要集中在1月、2月、12月,1月平均降雪日和积雪日最多,分别为4.0 d和2.1 d;积雪初日在11月上旬至翌年2月中旬均可能出现,其中12月下旬出现频次最多;积雪终日在1月中旬至4月上旬均可能出现,其中3月上旬出现频次最多.湖南各地年降雪日与积雪日呈现北多南少的分布态势.1952—2020年间湖南年降雪日、积雪日、积雪过程呈减少趋势,积雪初日推迟、终日提前,最长积雪持续时间与最大积雪深度无显著变化趋势.

Long-term variations of major atmospheric compositions observed at the background stations in three key areas of China

Atmospheric compositions and acid rain are closely related to atmospheric environment,weather,and climate change.In this study,the concentration levels and long-term trends of CO_(2),CH_(4),O_(3),PM_(2.5),PM_(10),and acid rain were presented at the Mt.Waliguan global baseline station in Qinghai,Shangdianzi and Lin'an regional background stations in the North China Plain(NCP)and the Yangtze River Delta region(YRD)of China based on the data observed until 2018.Significant increasing trends of CO_(2) were found at all of these stations.At Mt.Waliguan,the concentration levels and growth rate were consistent with the average values in the Northern Hemisphere(NH)and those observed at the Mauna Loa station in Hawaii.The CH_(4) also showed a upward tendency similar to that observed in NH.Compared with the observations at Mt.Waliguan global baseline station,the CO_(2) and CH_(4) mole fractions were higher at Shangdianzi and Lin'an regional background stations,indicating the important contributions of anthropogenic activities to the regional background level of CO_(2) and CH_(4).The annual averaged surface ozone showed increasing trends at Mt.Waliguan and Shangdianzi stations,whereas no clear trend was found at Lin'an station.Similar variations in the patterns of aerosol concentrations at Shangdianzi and Lin'an were found according to the PM_(2.5) or PM_(10) observations.Overall,the aerosol concentrations at both stations shown declining trends since the observations.However,two periods of high particle concentrations occurred in 2006-2007 and 2013-2014.The annual mean aerosol concentrations have continuously decreased after 2013-2014,indicating the effectiveness of pollution control in the NCP and YRD,especially since the implementation of the‘Action Plan for Prevention and Control of Air Pollution’in September 2013.Comparative analysis of aerosol with acid rain showed that the period with high concentrations of aerosols in the early years was consistent with that of severe acid rain pollution,suggesting that both aerosol pollution and severe acid rain are closely related to coal combustion emissions in China.As a result of the control of coal combustion emissions for acid and SO_(2),NO_(x) emissions have contributed more substantially to aerosols due to the rapid growth of vehicle ownership.A comparison of the trends of aerosols with the maximum daily 8-h average of surface ozone(MDA8)at Shangdianzi and Lin'an stations revealed the complicated relationship between aerosol reduction and ozone production,i.e.,together with the continuous improvement of particulate pollution in the NCP and YRD,the MDA8 at both stations showed a decreasing trend at first but subsequently increased after 2014 with aerosols remaining reduced.Such different variation patterns of the MDA8 with PM_(2.5)(or PM_(10))indicated the high challenge of synergic control of aerosol and ozone pollution in China.

The Tibetan Ozone Low and Its Long-Term Variation During 1979-2010

A Tibetan ozone low was found in the 1990s after the Antarctic ozone hole. Whether this ozone low has been recovering from the beginning of the 2000s following the global ozone recovery is an intriguing topic. With the most recent merged TOMS/SBUV （Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer/Solar Backscatter Ultra Violet） ozone data, the Tibetan ozone low and its long-term variation during 1979-2010 are analyzed using a statistical regression model that includes the seasonal cycle, solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation （QBO）, ENSO signal, and trends. The results show that the Tibetan ozone low maintains and may become more severe on average during 1979-2010, compared with its mean state in the periods before 2000, possibly caused by the stronger downward trend of total ozone concentration over the Tibet. Compared with the ozone variation over the non-Tibetan region along the same latitudes, the Tibetan ozone has a larger downward trend during 1979-2010, with a maximum value of-0.40±0.10 DU yr^-1 in January, which suggests the strengthening of the Tibetan ozone low in contrast to the recovery of global ozone. Regression analyses show that the QBO signal plays an important role in determining the total ozone variation over the Tibet. In addition, the long-term ozone variation over the Tibetan region is largely affected by the thermal-dynamical proxies such as the lower stratospheric temperature, with its contribution reaching around 10% of the total ozone change, which is greatly different from that over the non-Tibetan region.

基于多源数据采集融合的食品安全风险模型研究

食品安全的风险趋势分析对于及时发现食品安全隐患具重要意义。针对食品安全监管中数据零散、信息封闭、消息滞后所导致的效率难点问题,提出了结合多源异构数据的食品质量安全风险模型。以多源数据采集汇集技术为基础,利用数据治理方法,结合主题域模型、显著性分析模型和综合性评价分析模型,通过组合这三个模型,共同实现食品安全合规的自动预测,取得了良好的效果。

花脑特矿区基于变异系数-突变级数法的岩爆倾向性综合预测

为了准确预测花脑特矿区深部中段岩爆倾向性,选取岩石单轴抗压强度、冲击能量指数、弹性应变能指数、地应力指数和RQD值等五个指标,通过地应力测量、室内岩石力学试验、Sirovision岩体节理裂隙调查,获得岩爆倾向性单指标评价结果,同时引入变异系数-突变级数法建立岩爆多指标评价体系,利用岩爆倾向性单指标评价结果计算突变级数值,并与岩石实际岩爆等级进行比较分析。分析结果表明,样本突变级数值与实际岩爆等级存在正相关关系,可以进行岩爆倾向性预测。研究结果表明:变异系数-印第安人茅舍突变级数值法在白音呼布花脑特矿区具有较好的适用性,可作为矿山后续工程中岩爆倾向性预测依据。