Opportunities and Risks of Natural Gas Investment in China under the Circumstance of Low Oil Prices

After more than 30 years of rapid growth, the Chinese economy has entered the "new normal" of moderately high growth. Due to the effects of multiple factors, the international oil price has remained consistently low. The low oil price has exerted critical effects on international natural gas investment. At the same time, the market-oriented price mechanism of natural gas in China is gradually taking shape; the concept of low carbon development is widely advocated; and the use of natural gas gains popularity in the city. Such factors provide great opportunities for investment in the natural gas market of China, including boiler coal-to-gas transformation, natural gas distributed energy and natural gas vehicles. However, risks also exist, such as the lower competitiveness of natural gas, its excess production capacity and dwindling consumption in some gas consumption industries, an insufficient driving force for facilitating the coal-to-gas transformation of industrial fuel users, reverse substitution of "coal in place of gas" in some enterprises, nontransparent costs of the downstream link of the natural gas price chain, and mismatches and nonsynchronous adjustments in natural gas prices and electricity prices.

CNOOC Reports Heavy Loss amid Low Oil Prices

CNOOC Limited,of which China National Offshore Oil Corporation(CNOOC)is the parent,recently posted its first-ever half-year loss as the plunge of crude oil prices destroy the profit at China’s biggest offshore oil and gas producer.The company swung to a 7.74 billion yuan(USD1.16billion)loss in the January-June period,compared to a

Low Oil Prices Drive up China's Crude Oil Imports

China’s crude oil imports hit a record high in the first half of 2016 despite an economic slowdown,and analysts largely attributed the surge to low prices,not strategic maneuvering.The country imported 186.5 million tons of crude oil in the first half of the year,23.15 million

Low cost development strategy for oilfields in China under low oil prices

By reviewing the challenges in the development of oilfields in China under low oil prices,this study analyzes the root causes of cost rising,put forwards the low cost oilfield development strategy and specific paths to realize the strategy,and predicts the development potential and prospect of oilfields in China.In addition to the low grade of the reservoir and high development maturation,the fundamental reasons of development full cost rising of oilfields in China are as follows:(1)Facing the problem of resources turning poorer in quality,we have built production capacity at a pace too fast before making enough technical and experimental preparation;(2)technical engineering service model leads to high service cost;(3)team of oil development expertise and matched engineering system cannot satisfy the technical requirements of stabilizing oil production,controlling water cut and fine development.To realize development at low cost,the core is to increase economic recoverable reserves.The concrete paths include:(1)to explore the"Daqing oilfield development culture",improve the ability of leaders in charge of development,and inspire potential of staff;(2)to improve the ability of reservoir dynamics control,and implement precise development by following scientific principles;(3)to speed up integration of water flooding and enhanced oil recovery(EOR)and technological upgrading in order to enhance oil recovery;(4)to innovate key techniques in gas flooding and accelerate the industrial popularization of gas flooding;(5)to break the related transaction barriers and create new management models;and(6)to collaboratively optimize strategic layout and cultivate key oil bases.Although oilfield development in China faces huge challenges in cost,the low-cost development strategy will succeed as long as strategic development of mature and new oil fields is well planned.The cores to lower cost are to control decline rate and enhance oil recovery in mature oil fields,and increase single well productivity through technical innovation and improve engineering service efficiency through management innovation in new oil fields.

A Deep Learning Ensemble Method for Forecasting Daily Crude Oil Price Based on Snapshot Ensemble of Transformer Model

The oil industries are an important part of a country’s economy.The crude oil’s price is influenced by a wide range of variables.Therefore,how accurately can countries predict its behavior and what predictors to employ are two main questions.In this view,we propose utilizing deep learning and ensemble learning techniques to boost crude oil’s price forecasting performance.The suggested method is based on a deep learning snapshot ensemble method of the Transformer model.To examine the superiority of the proposed model,this paper compares the proposed deep learning ensemble model against different machine learning and statistical models for daily Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)oil price forecasting.Experimental results demonstrated the outperformance of the proposed method over statistical and machine learning methods.More precisely,the proposed snapshot ensemble of Transformer method achieved relative improvement in the forecasting performance compared to autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA(1,1,1),ARIMA(0,1,1),autoregressive moving average(ARMA)(0,1),vector autoregression(VAR),random walk(RW),support vector machine(SVM),and random forests(RF)models by 99.94%,99.62%,99.87%,99.65%,7.55%,98.38%,and 99.35%,respectively,according to mean square error metric.

Strategy for China's Natural Gas Industry in the Low Oil Price Environment

In regard to the continuous decline of international oil prices in recent years, how should China's natural gas industry seize the opportunity brought by this round of energy price declines, and how should we meet the challenges posed to the development of the domestic natural gas industry caused by changes in the international energy pattern? These questions deserve serious consideration. Through analysis on the situation of the domestic and overseas oil and gas market, and in combination with China's 13 th Five-Year Plan for energy development, the article proposes the development strategy in response to the low oil prices, aiming to provide countermeasures and suggestions for the long-term stable development of China's natural gas industry.

Challenges of Oil Companies' Upstream Business under Low Oil Price Condition

Currently, oil companies face the ＂new normal＂ condition that the profit of their upstream business is shrinking with the plunge of oil price. This problem challenges the operation and management of the upstream business. Therefore, it is essential to find out ＆e new approaches and key points of work, to achieve the goal of realizing a quality and sustainable development. From ten aspects, this paper discusses ＆e challenges facing ＆e upstream business of oil companies and puts forward corresponding roadmaps and strategies.

Research on Innovation of Floating Production Storage and Offloading Unit’s Rent Mode under Low Oil Price

After many years of exploitation,onshore oil and gas resources are about to enter a recession period.Oil and gas will mainly come from oceans in the future.Generally speaking,the exploration and production(E&P)cost of oil from offshore is much higher than that of oil from onshore,so it is more sensitive to oil price.However,in recent years,oil price has been hovering at a low level for a long time,almost close to or even lower than the E&P cost of oil,which directly affects the development of oilfields.Besides the influence of oil price,some oilfields present the characteristics of marginal reserve scale,short peak production period and output rapidly declining.There leads to short economic life period and makes the economic benefit close to or lower than oilfield’s hurdle rate,which increases the difficulty of offshore oilfield development.As an important part of oilfield development,Floating Production Storage and Offloading unit,its investment mode and rent mode directly affect overall oilfield’s rate of return and the economic life.This paper chooses lease mode as the research object based on the analysis of investment mode,and further puts forward rent mode related with oil price through the analysis of traditional rent mode,and illustrates the advantages and disadvantages of various rent modes and their applicability so that the lessor chooses the right mode to achieve Win-Win with Oil Company and promotes the development of oilfields under low oil price.

Progress and prospects of oil and gas production engineering technology in China

This paper summarizes the important progress in the field of oil and gas production engineering during the"Thirteenth Five-Year Plan"period of China,analyzes the challenges faced by the current oil and gas production engineering in terms of technological adaptability,digital construction,energy-saving and emission reduction,and points out the future development direction.During the"Thirteenth Five-Year Plan"period,series of important progresses have been made in five major technologies,including separated-layer injection,artificial lift,reservoir stimulation,gas well de-watering,and workover,which provide key technical support for continuous potential tapping of mature oilfields and profitable production of new oilfields.Under the current complex international political and economic situation,oil and gas production engineering is facing severe challenges in three aspects:technical difficulty increases in oil and gas production,insignificant improvements in digital transformation,and lack of core technical support for energy-saving and emission reduction.This paper establishes three major strategic directions and implementation paths,including oil stabilization and gas enhancement,digital transformation,and green and low-carbon development.Five key research areas are listed including fine separated-layer injection technology,high efficiency artificial lift technology,fine reservoir stimulation technology,long term gas well de-watering technology and intelligent workover technology,so as to provide engineering technical support for the transformation,upgrading and high-quality development of China’s oil and gas industry.

Oil and Gas Policies in the World’s Major Countries

Revolutionary adjustments were made to the global energy structure in 2017.For the first time,OPEC cooperated with non-OPEC countries to reach an agreement on production curtailment in order to stabilize the oil and gas market.On the one hand,host countries have introduced various fiscal and tax incentive policies to attract investment in the oil and gas industry;on the other,the lack of fiscal revenue has been made up for and the low-carbon environmental protection policy supported by imposing a value-added tax and environmental protection tax.Major consumers have introduced a timetable for the sales prohibition of fuel vehicles and supported the development of new energy vehicles with fiscal and taxation policies.However,from the perspective of the full life cycle,the promotion of electric vehicles is only conducive to partially improving the environment and is not the optimal choice for national energy structure optimization.Electric vehicles will have real significance for environmental protection only after clean electric power is solved.As such,implementing the sales prohibition of fuel vehicles with administrative power goes against market discipline.

2023年国内外油气行业发展及2024年展望

2023年,全球能源格局深刻调整,绿色低碳转型稳步推进;国际油价波动下跌,天然气价高位回落;油气勘探开发投资保持增长,油气产量继续双增;炼油乙烯产能继续增长,毛利总体下滑;大石油公司重新强化油气上游,降碳和盈利并重;碳减排共识进一步凝聚,碳市场影响力不断增强。中国油气行业立足安全清洁发展,能源行业政策体系加快完善;新型能源体系建设有序推进;成品油和天然气消费恢复向好,“全国一张网”加速完善;油气产储量保持增长,“两深一非”成增储上产新阵地;炼油能力继续小幅增长;大宗石化产品产能呈扩张态势;碳市场建设步伐加快。2024年,预计国际石油市场基本面由紧平衡转为供应过剩,天然气市场延续脆弱平衡,地缘政治紧张局势及外溢影响等将继续推动油气价格大幅波动;能源转型更加理性务实,基于安全效益发展建设能源韧性体系渐成共识。国内经济景气度回升势头向好,将进一步带动能源行业回暖;深化能源体制机制改革、加快建设新型能源体系、保障能源供应安全稳定仍是能源行业的重要使命任务。

低频电压下含纤维素颗粒变压器油绝缘特性及影响因素

低频变压器是低频输电系统中的关键设备,低频电压下的绝缘特性对其设计及运行具有重要意义。该文为了研究低频电压下含纤维素颗粒的变压器油的绝缘特性,分别研究20、30、40、50 Hz四种频率交流电压下不同纤维素颗粒度(低、中、高)水平的变压器油击穿特性。同时,通过仿真及试验分析不同频率下变压器油中纤维素颗粒运动及积聚过程。研究结果表明,交流电压频率对变压器油中纤维素颗粒的成桥特性及击穿电压具有显著影响。随着频率的降低,纤维素颗粒向电极移动速度变慢并难以黏附在电极表面,减缓了纤维素颗粒在电极表面的积聚过程及杂质小桥的形成速度。相同频率交流电压下,变压器油击穿电压均随颗粒物浓度的升高而降低;相同纤维素颗粒浓度下,变压器油击穿电压随着频率的降低而增大。研究结果为低频变压器的设计及运行维护提供了基础数据支撑。

能源转型及“双碳”目标背景下全球炼油行业发展新态势与前景展望

2023年,全球炼化项目建设稳步推进,炼油重心继续东移;全球新增炼油能力8617.5万吨/年,高于上年新增量,总炼油能力提升至51.8亿吨/年。全球原油加工量合计约8240万桶/日,恢复至疫情前水平,装置开工率持续回升,炼油毛利继续保持历史较高水平。炼油行业加快结构调整和转型升级,欧美炼油商加快投资生物燃料生产,中东非洲地区以新建项目推动炼油业转型升级。炼油技术在劣质重油加工、清洁燃料生产、炼油向化工转型等方面取得持续进展,原油直接制化学品技术成为重点方向。2024年全球有望新增炼油能力近1亿吨,全球炼化项目在2030年前仍将继续保持增长,增长中心集中在亚太和中东地区;2024年全球炼厂原油加工量同比增长约100万桶/日,增量主要来自中国、中东、非洲地区,世界炼油毛利有望维持较好水平;2030年前炼油结构调整和转型升级仍是炼油业发展的主基调,新兴经济体炼油行业将继续加快转型升级和绿色智能化发展进程。

微波辐射对泥页岩孔隙发育的影响——以松辽盆地青山口组一段为例

页岩油被认为是我国油气能源的革命者,其中中低熟页岩油资源潜力巨大。原位加热转化是中低熟页岩油有效开发的潜在技术。本文对松辽盆地青山口组一段富有机质泥页岩开展了常规加热和微波辐射加热实验,并结合场发射扫描电镜、低温氮气吸附实验,系统对比了微波辐射和常规加热页岩时孔隙结构与演化特征。结果表明:有机孔的演化主要经历了开孔→孔隙合并→形成复合孔隙及裂缝三个阶段,加热相同温度时微波辐射能够促进有机质裂解形成有机孔,对微裂缝的发育具有明显的促进作用;随温度增加,孔隙结构参数变化复杂,孔径先增后降,孔体积和比表面积呈增加→降低→增加的特征;随微波辐射加热时间的增加,小于50 nm的孔隙体积大幅减小,中大孔体积明显增加,表明小孔隙逐渐扩张、合并并演变成大孔。微波辐射对页岩孔隙空间改善效果更显著,裂缝更发育,利于油气渗流,但同时发现微波辐射加热的功率过高、时间过长时将会破坏孔隙,不利于改善页岩微观孔隙空间。本项研究对于中低熟页岩油原位加热方式选择及加热过程中微观孔裂隙演化认识有一定的帮助。

我国海洋退役油气平台低碳化改建方案构想

海洋退役油气平台低碳化改建是集约利用资源、充分挖掘退役平台经济及生态效益的优选模式,是维护和提升海洋领域碳减排能力的重要举措;然而,我国海洋领域绿色低碳开发进程刚刚起步,退役海洋油气平台低碳化改建多停留在概念设想层面,亟需立足低碳化技术提出切实可行的综合性改建方案。本文完成了我国退役油气平台处置现状和低碳化技术水平的调研分析,提出了构建海上碳循环利用枢纽的改建主导形式以及3条低碳化改建路线,明确了平台安全评估、改建方案选取策略、全生命周期环境保护等平台改建的关键工程实施策略。针对平台改建法规及政策缺失、海洋领域低碳化技术应用存在短板、跨产业合作机制不明确等现实问题,建议健全平台改建法规及引导政策;聚焦核心技术装备的海上应用性能,优化技术理论支撑,加紧国产装备转型;优先开展退役平台的改建示范工程,以推动我国海洋退役平台低碳化改建进程。

能源转型背景下油气工程技术发展新方向

在能源转型背景下,能源市场已经开始向低碳和新能源方向发生根本性改变。为了保证油气在能源行业的竞争性,油气公司坚守油气主营业务,实施“油气+低碳、负碳技术”的能源转型路径,油气工程技术作为支撑油气和新能源高效开发的重要手段,机遇与挑战并存。在总结能源转型发展形势及其对油气工程技术创新影响的基础上,分析了油气工程技术创新发展新方向;结合我国油气行业发展面临的挑战,提出了技术研发由经济效益驱动向价值驱动转变、持续加强降本增效技术推广应用力度、强化低碳油气工程技术研发、分类施策推动油气与新能源的深度融合和注重技术创新管理模式的探索等发展建议。这对于尽快形成我国油气工程新型技术创新与管理创新体系、提升油气行业竞争力具有一定的指导意义。

基于多物理场仿真的低频变压器温度特性分析及导向结构优化

为了降低低频工况下油浸式电力变压器的热点温度与内部温升,基于电磁-热-流体场多物理场耦合对低频变压器绕组区域导向结构开展优化分析。通过对变压器电磁部分的有限元数值计算,确定低频变压器与同工况下的工频变压器在铁芯和绕组区域的磁密分布与损耗特性区别。然后在此基础上将铁芯和绕组的损耗作为热源代入流体场和温度场进行仿真分析,得到变压器整体和绕组区域局部的温度及油流分布。最后通过构建20 Hz低频变压器绕组区域的油流传热模型,结合有限元仿真研究导油挡板数量与分布对绕组区域油流量、平均温度和热点温度的影响,并获得导向结构的最佳分配方案。研究结果表明,20 Hz低频变压器绕组区域的热点温度较无挡油板的模型下降了14.44%,该结果可为低频变压器紧凑化设计提供优化方案。

考虑多影响因素的加油站销量预测研究

加油站销量预测是成品油二次物流中不可或缺的一部分,有利于推进油品主动配送,帮助二次物流运输精确调度,提升企业整体运行效率。通过历史数据及模型结果分析得出,加油站销量与特殊日期、长短时等多因素有关,文章在长短期记忆网络(LSTM)基础上引入多因素特征构建预测模型,并以某市加油站真实销量数据为实例进行检验。经验证,模型在汽油预测方面的平均误差小于15%,柴油预测的平均误差小于18%,能够满足应用需求。

低温环境下油浸式电力变压器绝缘介电参数归算方法研究

现有标准中针对油浸式电力变压器介质损耗因数与绝缘电阻归算的方法,未考虑绝缘老化及水分含量的影响,在低温环境下的归算结果存在较大偏差。基于此,以实验室条件下获得的油纸绝缘宽温区下的FDS测试数据及电导率数据为基础,结合变压器主绝缘等效的介电弛豫模型,考虑水分含量及绝缘老化程度条件,提出极寒环境下变压器主绝缘工频介电损耗因数及绝缘电阻的等值归算方法。将低温下实测变压器工频损耗因数及计算所得绝缘电阻值归算至20℃,为变压器绝缘状态的准确评估提供重要的理论基础。