MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTING OF LOW TEMPERATURE AND ICY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHINA IN EARLY 2008

Based on the daily mean temperature and 24-h accumulated total precipitation over central and southern China, the features and the possible causes of the extreme weather events with low temperature and icing conditions,which occurred in the southern part of China during early 2008, are investigated in this study. In addition, multimodel consensus forecasting experiments are conducted by using the ensemble forecasts of ECMWF, JMA, NCEP and CMA taken from the TIGGE archives. Results show that more than a third of the stations in the southern part of China were covered by the extremely abundant precipitation with a 50-a return period, and extremely low temperature with a 50-a return period occurred in the Guizhou and western Hunan province as well. For the 24- to 216-h surface temperature forecasts, the bias-removed multimodel ensemble mean with running training period(R-BREM) has the highest forecast skill of all individual models and multimodel consensus techniques. Taking the RMSEs of the ECMWF 96-h forecasts as the criterion, the forecast time of the surface temperature may be prolonged to 192 h over the southeastern coast of China by using the R-BREM technique. For the sprinkle forecasts over central and southern China, the R-BREM technique has the best performance in terms of threat scores(TS) for the 24- to 192-h forecasts except for the 72-h forecasts among all individual models and multimodel consensus techniques. For the moderate rain, the forecast skill of the R-BREM technique is superior to those of individual models and multimodel ensemble mean.

Variation Characteristics of Low Temperature and Rainy Weather in Guangxi during Spring Sowing Period of Recent 50 Years

[Objective] The research aimed to study the variation characteristics of low temperature and rainy weather in Guangxi during spring sowing period of recent 50 years.[Method] Based on the daily average temperature data from 1961 to 2010 at 88 meteorological stations in Guangxi,yearly days and end date of low temperature and rainy weather during spring sowing period were carried out statistics.The variation characteristics of low temperature and rainy weather in Guangxi during spring sowing period of recent 50 years were analyzed by using linear tendency calculation,phased analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis and correlation analysis.Moreover,the influences of climate warming on days and end date of low temperature and rainy weather in spring sowing period were analyzed.[Result] The average days of low temperature and rainy weather in Guangxi during spring sowing period from 1961 to 2010 was during 3.5-23.2 d.The regional distribution characteristics were that it was more in northeast and mountain zone,and less in southwest and valley.The regional distribution characteristics of end date were that it was late in northeast and mountain zone,and early in southwest and valley.The days of low temperature and rainy weather in Guangxi during spring sowing period of recent 50 years presented slight decrease trend,and the end date presented slight advancing trend.The phased variation characteristics of days and end date of low temperature and rainy weather were obvious.The days of low temperature and rainy weather from the early 1980s to metaphase of 1990s was obviously more,and the end date was obviously later.After the 1990s,the days of low temperature and rainy weather was obviously less,and the end date was obviously earlier.The days of low temperature and rainy weather had periodic oscillation signals of 4,6,8,10-14 years.The end date had periodic oscillation signals of 6,12-14 years.The days and end date of low temperature and rainy weather in Guangxi during spring sowing period significantly related to average temperature from middle dekad of February to first dekad of April.The climate warming made that the days of low temperature and rainy weather tended to decrease,and the end date tended to advance.[Conclusion] The research provided reference for further understanding the occurrence rule of low temperature and rainy weather,going after profits and avoiding disadvantages,reasonably arranging production,carrying out correlated research.