Real estate market efficiency: Evidence from Chinese cities

The price in an efficient market can adjust to new information instantaneously to eliminate any arbitrage opportunities. Such a phenomenon is not always observed in the real estate market because of its unique characteristics, which include fixed location, heterogeneity and low transaction frequency. Using housing and office market data of some major cities in China, this paper examines the return and risk characteristics in these markets and assesses market efficiency. It finds that a number of instruments, including lagged quarterly and annual excess returns and, to some extent, the measure of the deviation of price from the intrinsic value, predict future returns. Therefore, weak form and semi-strong form efficiency can both be rejected in these real estate markets. These empirical findings suggest that there is slow price adjustment in real estate markets in China, which may be attributed to inefficient information transmission systems and long searching time in the markets.

Research on the Impact of Market Concern for Real Estate Policy on Housing Prices: Evidence from Internet Search and Hedonic Price Theory

To avoid the effects of systemic financial risks caused by extreme fluctuations in housing price,the Chinese government has been exploring the most effective policies for regulating the housing market.Measuring the effect of real estate regulation policies has been a challenge for present studies.This study innovatively employs big data technology to obtain Internet search data(ISD)and construct market concern index(MCI)of policy,and hedonic price theory to construct hedonic price index(HPI)based on building area,age,ring number,and other hedonic variables.Then,the impact of market concerns for restrictive policy,monetary policy,fiscal policy,security policy,and administrative supervision policy on housing prices is evaluated.Moreover,compared with the common housing price index,the hedonic price index considers the heterogeneity of houses and could better reflect the changes in housing prices caused by market supply and demand.The results indicate that(1)a long-term interaction relationship exists between housing prices and market concerns for policy(MCP);(2)market concerns for restrictive policy and administrative supervision policy effectively restrain rising housing prices while those for monetary and fiscal policy have the opposite effect.The results could serve as a useful reference for governments aiming to stabilize their real estate markets.

Study on the roles and acting mechanism of the real estate brokerage in China second-hand housing market

As China housing reform deepens, the second-hand housing transactions become more and more popular and real estate brokerages, as an intermediary of the transactions, become an undeniable important part of this market. This article mainly explores the roles and the acting mechanism of real estate brokerages in the second-hand housing market. The results show that the participation of real estate brokers in the second-hand housing market may have positive and negative influences. On one side, brokers ease the housing transaction process and benefits buyers and sellers by shortening the sale time on the market. On the other side, if brokers are the only participants in the housing transaction, acting as buyer and seller like some firms do, housing prices will increase and this negative effect will become even stronger as the participation of many more brokers increases. Therefore, the regulation and management of the industry is vital for the long and healthy development of the housing market in China.

Dynamic Game Research on Multiple Subjects in the Real Estate Market of China

In order to analyze the deep-routed reason for the failure of the real estate market regulation policy, this paper established an incomplete information tri-game model in which central government, local government and the real estate developer were chosen as three main research objects. Based on the analysis of their interest appeals under the assumption of rational economic man, we found that it was the difference of interest appeals of central and local governments as well as the real estate developers that caused the game among the three participants. This, however, led to the failure of the macro-control at last. Strengthening the supervision of central government and reducing its cost at the same time, what’s more, improving the efficiency of the supervision and increasing the punishment of the rent-seeking behavior between local government and the real estate developers will contribute to improve the implementation status of the regulation and control policy. We suggest the authorities improve the government political achievement appraisal system and reform the current system of benefits distribution;moreover, reform the existing regulatory system and strength the regulatory role of media and the third-party so as to promote the healthy development of the real estate market.

The Relationship Between the Real Estate Market and the Stock Market and Its Impact on the Strategic Planning Process in the Jordanian Organizations

This study aims at the relationship between the real estate market and Amman Stock Exchange, through the impact of three macroeconomic factors （GDP, inflation rate, and the population growth rate） and another three factors from the microeconomic indicators （interest rate, remittances of Jordanian expatriates, and the loans provided by the Jordanian banks）. The results show that the stock market is more sensitive to the microeconomic indicators than the real estate market, and responds more rapidly than the real estate market for the changes in the microeconomic indicators. The study presents some recommendations for the Jordanian companies who own or manage any investment portfolio to be aware for the existing relationship between the two markets, and to reflect this awareness in their strategic Plans, Particularly in the regression atmosphere that causes by global crisis.

Research on the Healthy Development of China’s Real Estate Market under the background of Macro Regulation and Stock Marketing

Rising production costs, changes in the way of technological progress, the rate of decline in investment income, export-led growh is not sustainable, these factors make the Chinese economy has entered a “new normal.” This performance is the new normal economic growh rates, “stagflation” risk appears to reduce the employment pressure, increased proportion of consumption, industrial structure transition from labor-intensive to capital-intensive and knowledge-intensive, as well as increased demand for independent research and development. In the “new normal”, China should moderately lower economic growh target, deepening reform, speed up industrial restructuring and independent innovation, the implementation of the policy mix of supply and demand double expansion, demand management, or a small amount of sound monetary tightening, fiscal expansion policy mix. “Destocking” is the main task of the real estate market, due to the effect of crowding out commercial and affordable housing between the stocks is bound to affect the development of affordable housing. Faced with the real estate market structure imbalance, we should supply-side and demand-side two-pronged approach.

Evaluation on the Process and Effects of Monetary Policies to Chinese Real Estate Market

The process of China＇s monetary policy regulation on the real estate market can be roughly divided into four stages since 1998. The first and the third stages are to raise housing price, while the second and the fourth stages are to curb housing price. There are both successful experiences and failure lessons in these stages of regulation. The present monetary policy instruments should be based on quantitative instruments, while the price instruments shall serve only as a supplement. We should use comprehensive polices including land policies, fiscal policies, legal and political means to develop a variety of specific and flexible policies to prevent financial risks, so that to fully play the important role of real estate market.

Stock Market Turnover and China’s Real Estate Market Price: An Empirical Study Based on VAR

Our analysis used the monthly data of the average sales price of commodity houses and stock turnover in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange from January 2016 to December 2020. We selected this data to establish a Vector Autoregression(VAR) model using the Granger causality test to investigate the correlation between the stock market and the real estate market. We found that there is a significant positive correlation between the stock market and the real estate market. We also found that the real estate market price is the one-way Granger cause for the stock market turnover, and that changes in the real estate market price have a significant role in forecasting changes in stock market turnover. Therefore, the linkage between the two markets should be considered in macro regulations, and the impact on one of the markets should be considered when regulating the other.

The Applicability of the Maximum Global Utility Method in the Activity of the Real Estate Consulting Service

The real estate sector is vital for ensuring human needs for living and activity. This fact conditioned the formation of a legal, normative and methodological framework specific to real estate, but also the investment attractiveness of the field. Thus, the real estate consultant often solves technical, economic, legal, organizational problems, but the biggest responsibility rests with investment consulting. The applied methodologies, focused on evaluating the efficiency of investments, are not sufficient to propose to the investor a reasoned conclusion regarding the investment priority. In this article, the authors propose a useful tool for real estate consultants in order to reason the decision regarding the investment of funds in commercial real estate for the purpose of renting it out—the Maximum Global Utility (MGU) method. It is proposed to include in the analysis and the way of calculating the indicator “importance level of the real estate” which reflects the criterion of the best use. This indicator ensures the flexibility of the decision depending on the quality characteristics of the real estate.

Study on the Theory and Method of Real Estate Property Right Appraisal

This paper first introduces the overview of real estate appraisal theory,the basic situation of real estate appraisal,the basic principles and characteristics of real estate appraisal,and three main appraisal methods.On this basis,the specific use scope of each method,the meaning of each parameter,and the influencing factors are analyzed.Then,based on the in-depth study of various existing appraisal theories and methods,a new appraisal method is proposed:the appraisal analysis method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.

房地产市场与绿色金融市场的高阶矩风险溢出效应分析

随着我国绿色金融蓬勃发展,房地产业转型逐步提速,房地产市场与绿色金融市场互联互通程度逐渐加深,科学衡量两个市场间风险溢出效应变得尤为重要。基于GARCHSK模型和DY溢出指数模型,分析了房地产市场与绿色金融市场的发展现状、溢出机制及各阶矩风险溢出,聚焦高阶矩风险溢出。研究结果表明,两市场间存在具有显著时变特征的双向风险溢出;多数情况下,房地产市场是风险的净传递方,且对不同绿色金融市场的风险溢出情况有所不同。根据研究结果,围绕市场监管者、房地产开发企业和绿色金融投资者三个层面提出了政策建议。

国有企业在中国房地产业发展中的使命、地位与作用研究

基于历史维度,分析我国房地产制度改革的历史进程,可以揭示出国有企业在中国房地产业发展的不同时期的使命、地位和作用。从新中国成立到1978年房改之前,国有企业承担了巩固社会主义公有制的重要使命,逐渐取得了绝对主体地位,发挥了房地产生产消费的主导作用。从1978年到1998年房改之前,国有企业新增加了培育市场主体的使命,在房地产行业占主导地位,发挥了控制作用。在1998年房改后的阶段,国有企业增加了弥补市场失灵、做强做优做大国有资本的使命,在房地产业发展中的地位有所下降,发挥了带动支撑作用。

行政审批改革对房地产市场的影响效应探究——基于行政审批中心设立的准自然实验

本文通过基于行政审批中心设立的准自然实验,探讨了行政审批制度改革对城市房地产市场的影响效应。以设立行政审批中心作为行政审批制度改革的代理变量,通过实证分析发现:行政审批改革对城市房地产市场供求两端均具有显著影响,具体表现为对城市房地产供给和需求均具有正向促进作用,但存在差异。本研究对于理解行政审批改革对房地产市场的影响效应具有重要意义,为改善营商环境提供依据,也为政策制定者和房地产市场参与者提供了有价值的参考。

房地产行业冲击下的系统性风险

房地产是当前中国最大的“灰犀牛”之一.本文首次就房地产行业冲击对我国所有行业可能造成的系统性风险影响进行了压力测试.为克服以往二维压力测试无法刻画所有行业之间联动的问题,本文提出了一种新的动态高维Copula(DHDC)宏观压力测试方法.还提出了一种新的系统性风险度量—条件市值损失(CoMVL),它结合了已有风险度量CoES和MES的优点,又融入了市值信息,从而更好地测量负向冲击的影响.利用中国18个行业的指数回报数据,基于DHDC压力测试的实证分析表明:房地产行业冲击对其他各个行业产生了广泛的不利影响,如果未来一个月内房地产行业累积收益率下跌20%,将会导致制造业、金融业、信息技术业和采矿业的市值分别下跌10.14万亿元、0.81万亿元、0.65万亿元和0.42万亿元,收益率分别下跌29.10%、7.81%、15.27%和10.92%;房地产行业冲击对一个行业造成的市值损失75%以上归结于间接影响,即房地产行业通过影响其它行业而其它行业又对目标行业造成的影响.风险溢出网络分析表明,房地产行业冲击主要通过信息技术业、采矿业、批发零售业、交运仓储业、水电煤气业和建筑业六个行业对制造业和金融业产生了不利影响.拓展分析还表明,房地产行业冲击时间越长,对其他行业产生的不利影响也就越大;而且房地产行业负向冲击产生的影响要大于同等幅度下正向冲击产生的影响,即当前稳定房地产下跌预期对防范系统性风险相对更加重要.一系列稳健性检验都证实了本文结果的可靠性.本研究对于全面理解和防范房地产行业冲击对其它各行业可能带来的系统性风险具有重要的政策指引意义.

中国房地产市场的周期演进、理论逻辑与政策构想——与1991年日本房地产危机的比较分析

从1998年中国房地产市场改革开始到2021年房地产市场出现拐点并进入下行周期,这24年间,中国房地产市场经历了一个完整的单边看涨周期。当前,在中国房地产市场下行的背景下,对过去24年的单边看涨周期进行研究,探寻中国房地产市场周期演进的规律,对中国房地产市场的健康发展和金融稳定具有非常重要的意义。本文基于修正后的D-W模型对1991年日本房地产危机产生的原因进行分析。通过将本轮中国房地产市场下行与1991年日本房地产危机进行比较分析发现,中国宏观经济层面不具备发生类似1991年日本房地产危机的条件。实证结果表明,对日本房价和房地产交易量增幅影响最明显的因素是利率、汇率、货币供应量和城市化率,短期内宏观政策急速调整,以及由此带来的利率和汇率大幅波动是1991年日本房地产危机产生的最根本原因。本文认为,本轮中国房地产市场下行的本质不是源自宏观经济层面,而是源自微观层面,即“三道红线”政策刺穿了中国房地产不健康的“三高模式”。本文为深入探析中国房地产市场进入下行周期的演进规律、厘清影响中国房地产业发展的核心因素、为政府部门和央行制定稳定房地产市场与内外部经济的相关政策提供了理论依据。

我国工程建设代建制的发展与建议

我国房地产市场已经进入结构不平衡的存量时代,房地产业的转型升级、高质量发展,低端“产能过剩”的现象日益明显,迫切需要探索新发展模式,代建制契合了不同市场主体的发展需求。本文根据现代工程项目及风险管理理论,界定代建制、聚焦商业代建,针对市场周期波动、下行阶段,进行代建制的发展趋势分析、结构设计及风险分析,进而提出促进代建制平稳健康发展的措施建议。

城市商业办公用房空置问题与风险防范研究

本文在典型城市实地调研基础上,总结分析了当前我国城市商业办公用房空置率高和去化难的现状问题和成因,建议以推动实现房地产市场风险防范化解和城市高质量发展为目标,合理控制增量,有序去化存量,稳妥处置风险。

特征价格模型方法应用的研究进展与展望

特征价格模型方法是房地产市场价格评估、预测及影响因素分析研究中经典且常用的工具,通过梳理特征价格模型的理论基础,运用文献计量方法全面分析其研究现状。研究发现:1)新消费者理论和市场均衡理论是特征价格模型的理论基础;2)特征价格模型已成为应用经济学、人文地理学和城市规划等多学科领域使用的重要方法;3)特征价格模型包括普通多元回归模型、空间回归模型、多层次模型和机器学习等方法;4)特征价格模型的解释变量主要由结构特征、邻里特征和区位特征3大维度构成,其他环境特征也逐渐受到关注,但特征变量的测度方法不同可能导致研究结论的差异;5)未来的特征价格模型应用研究应从完善理论分析框架、选择合适的模型方法、准确测度特征变量内涵和提升研究结论的普适性等方面进行改进。

我国房地产市场供求关系和未来发展趋势研究

近年来,我国房地产市场发生了明显变化。从整体看,我国已告别住房“短缺”时代,并随着人口总量减少和人口老龄化、少子化的到来,城镇房地产市场出现需求增长减缓、供给总体过剩、区域市场发展不平衡、行业风险集中爆发等特征。为落实中央经济工作会议精神,当前我们不仅要开展短期逆周期调节,消除多年来“高负债、高杠杆、高周转”发展模式弊端,还要深入研判房地产市场供求关系和城镇化格局等重大趋势性、结构性变化,抓紧研究中长期治本之策,加快构建房地产新发展模式,继续发挥房地产业对我国经济社会发展的重要作用。本文在研究当前房地产市场发展环境、房地产市场供需特征基础上,深入分析了影响我国房地产市场长期发展的主要因素,并对我国房地产业未来发展趋势进行研判,提出“大力发展以大城市为中心的房地产市场,充分释放经济增长空间布局红利”的未来发展观点,以及推动制度改革、构建行业发展新模式的相关建议。

基于大数据的房地产评价与监测预警平台建设

房地产行业的稳定运行对国民经济发展意义重大,而利用数字化、智能化手段赋能强化政府对房地产市场的监管及调控工作具有广泛应用价值。本文依托丰富的房地产时空数据资源及数据仓库、GIS、云计算等技术,设计并实现了基于大数据体系的房地产动态评价与监测预警平台,建设了覆盖“房地产项目用地—房地产项目开发—物业小区”全链条的房地产市场信息化监测模式,为房地产市场监管、调控工作提供了有效、便捷、精准的技术手段,助力政府引导房地产市场健康平稳发展。