Exploration of the Reform of Macroeconomics Course with Integrating Ideological-Political Elements

Integrating ideological and political education into university teaching has become the core content of current higher education work in China,and it is also one of the important factors in ensuring the quality of higher education.As one of the fundamental courses in the field of economic management,integrating ideological and political education into the teaching of macroeconomics is highly in line with the current educational reform concept in Chinese universities.Based on this,the author will provide suggestions on how to integrate ideological and political education with macroeconomics courses from three aspects,namely teaching philosophy,teaching methods,and teaching content,to provide some reference and assistance for the teaching reform of macroeconomics courses.

The Macroeconomic Impact of Internet Finance

This paper investigates the macroeconomic impacts of Internet finance,highlighting its advantages and challenges.Internet finance,a fusion of Internet technology with traditional financial practices,introduces innovative models for global asset management,capital financing,payments,investments,and intermediary services.While it enhances the accessibility and efficiency of financial services,it also introduces new risks,such as higher credit default rates.This study explores how Internet finance contributes to financial inclusivity and macroeconomic growth yet poses potential threats to traditional financial stability.The dual aspects of Internet finance are analyzed:its application in existing processes and its capacity to generate novel business models.Furthermore,the paper proposes strategic responses to mitigate the negative impacts of Internet finance,mainly focusing on risk management and regulatory improvements to safeguard economic stability.

The Failure of Macroeconomics in America

Editor＇s Words On 18 March 2011, the China Association for World Economics hosted ＂The Presentation of the 2010 Pushan Award for Excellent Papers on International Economics ＂ at the China Central University of Finance and Economics. Over 700 scholars and students from home and abroad attended the ceremony. Professor Joseph Stiglitz, the winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, presented the awards and gave a speech on ＂The Failure of Economics in America.＂ The following speech transcript has been approved and edited kindly by Professor Stiglitz.

Enterprise Value Valuation-BYD as an Example Based on SWOT Model and Multiple Regression Model

BYD is one of the largest new energy vehicle companies in China.Analyzing its scenario and the factors that affect its value helps to understand and identify development opportunities and potential problems.On one hand,this paper makes a qualitative analysis of BYD,using SWOT model to study the internal capability and external environment of BYD.On the other hand,the multiple regression model is used for quantitative analysis of BYD’s enterprise value,and the model is established based on three factors:enterprise fundamentals,investor behavior and psychology,and macroeconomic policy uncertainty,and the stepwise regression is carried out.The results show that the increase of institutional investors’shareholding ratio,the increase of investor sentiment index,and the increase of M2 growth rate will increase the overall enterprise value,while the increase of economic policy uncertainty will decrease the enterprise value.

Macroeconomic Asymmetries in the Eurozone Countries in the Time of Financial Crisis

This paper seeks to highlight the macroeconomic asymmetries and social impacts among eurozone countries which occurred during the time of the financial crisis,emphasising the urgent need to revise the framework of economic governance.The analysis focuses on the growing macroeconomic and social imbalances on a representative sample of selected eurozone member-states(Euro(€)North and Euro(€)South)which had posed a threat to economic sustainability and social coherence.

An incommensurate fractional discrete macroeconomic system:Bifurcation,chaos,and complexity

This study proposes a novel fractional discrete-time macroeconomic system with incommensurate order.The dynamical behavior of the proposed macroeconomic model is investigated analytically and numerically.In particular,the zero equilibrium point stability is investigated to demonstrate that the discrete macroeconomic system exhibits chaotic behavior.Through using bifurcation diagrams,phase attractors,the maximum Lyapunov exponent and the 0–1 test,we verified that chaos exists in the new model with incommensurate fractional orders.Additionally,a complexity analysis is carried out utilizing the approximation entropy(ApEn)and C_(0)complexity to prove that chaos exists.Finally,the main findings of this study are presented using numerical simulations.

Analysis of financial development and open innovation oriented fintech potential for emerging economies using an integrated decision‑making approach of MF‑X‑DMA and golden cut bipolar q‑ROFSs

The purpose of the paper is to identify the factors of financial development that have the greatest impact on open innovation in 7 emerging countries.The analysis was performed featuring the MF-X-DMA method,as well as its further verification for auto-correlation and heteroscedasticity.The time period covers years from 2002 to 2020.The article states that the main indicators to improve financial development should enhance the process of bank lending and equity market development.An important area is the development of competition by providing equal access to information to all market participants in a continuously refining technical infrastructure.Regression analysis with the MF-X-DMA method confirms the statistical significance of this influ-ence.The article fills the knowledge gap into the link between open innovations and the relatively low capitalization of the modern emerging countries’financial market,low liquidity in small cap stocks at the financial market and concentration of the banking sector,as well as risks arising in the process of globalization.Another analysis has also been conducted by generating a novel fuzzy decision-making model.In the first stage,the determinants of open innovation-based fintech potential are weighted for the emerging economies.For this purpose,M-SWARA methodology is taken into consideration based on bipolar q-ROFSs and golden cut.The second stage of the analysis includes evaluating the emerging economies with the determinants of open innovation-based fintech potential.In this context,emerging seven countries are examined with ELECTRE methodology.It found the most significant factor is the open innovation-based fintech potential.

Examine the Reliability of Econometrics Software: An Empirical Comparison of Time Series Modelling

Researchers must understand that naively relying on the reliability of statistical software packages may result in suboptimal, biased, or erroneous results, which affects applied economic theory and the conclusions and policy recommendations drawn from it. To create confidence in a result, several software packages should be applied to the same estimation problem. This study examines the results of three software packages (EViews, R, and Stata) in the analysis of time-series econometric data. The time-series data analysis which presents the determinants of macroeconomic growth of Sri Lanka from 1978 to 2020 has been used. The study focuses on testing for stationarity, cointegration, and significant relationships among the variables. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips Perron tests were employed in this study to test for stationarity, while the Johansen cointegration test was utilized to test for cointegration. The study employs the vector error correction model to assess the short-run and long-term dynamics of the variables in an attempt to determine the relationship between them. Finally, the Granger Causality test is employed in order to examine the linear causation between the concerned variables. The study revealed that the results produced by three software packages for the same dataset and the same lag order vary significantly. This implies that time series econometrics results are sensitive to the software that is used by the researchers while providing different policy implications even for the same dataset. The present study highlights the necessity of further analysis to investigate the impact of software packages in time series analysis of economic scenarios.

Paths out of poverty:An eclectic and idiosyncratic review of analytical approaches

This paper briefly reviews different debates about approaches for paths out of poverty,considering several views,from the analysis of specific policies to more general or systemic considerations.The contribution of this paper is to present a broad outline of those debates and to serve as an illustration of the complexity of analyzing paths out of poverty.It discusses in sequence,the more microeconomic approach of evaluation of individual policies for poverty alleviation;then it moves to broader issues of growth and development strategies,and macroeconomic policies,and their links to the persistence or reduction of poverty;and finally discusses the topic of institutions,related to how policy decisions are made and enforced in societies at the previous three levels.Finally,the concluding section argues that a successful program to eliminate poverty must integrate all levels of individual policies,macroeconomic programs,development strategies and good institutions.This paper hopes to contribute to that crucial work.

Credit Risk Model Taking Account of Inflation and Its Contribution to Macroeconomic Discussion on Effect of Inflation on Output Growth

We use Extended Merton model(EMM)for estimating the firm’s credit risks in the presence of inflation.We show quantitatively that inflation is an influential factor making either a benign or adverse effect on the firm’s survival,supporting at the microeconomic level New Keynesian findings of the nonlinear inflation effect on output growth.Lower inflation increasing the firm’s expected rate of return can raise its mean year returns and decrease its default probability.Higher inflation,decreasing the expected rate return,makes the opposite effect.The magnitude of the adverse effect depends on the firm strength:for a steady firm,this effect is small,whereas for a weaker firm,it can be fatal.EMM is the only model taking account of inflation.It can be useful for banks or insurance companies estimating credit risks of commercial borrowers over the debt maturity,and for the firm’s management planning long-term business operations.

Quantifying the Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Impact of the Recent Crude Oil Price Fluctuations

This study analyzed the potential impact of the increased oil volatility on the industries and the global economy. Specifically, it separated the oil price fluctuations into positive and negative components, and modeled the return of industry portfolios with them. Next, the sensitivity of the airline industry to oil price was investigated to gauge the effectiveness of their hedging strategies, with the hope that the methodology can be extended to other industries. In addition, this paper explored the macroeconomic impact of oil price movements by examining the benchmarks such as GDP and CPI.

BAYESIAN METHOD OF MACROECONOMICAL DECISION

A Bayesian decision method is considered,which is applied to analysingthe reform problem of economic system in our country.When the number of eco-nomic departments satisfies some certain cunditions,the optinial lengths and optimalallocations are found in this paper.

The permanence of a higher order discrete time system

The permanence of a nonlinear higher order discrete time system from macroeconomics is studied, and a sufficient condition is proposed for the permanence of the system described by 11(,...,)nnnnkxrxfxx---=+ where :kfRR, the initial values 01,,kxx-are real numbers and [0,1)r is constant after exploring the relationship between this equation and 1(,...,)nnnkxfxx--= for certain classes of function f. As an application a short proof is given to a known result in a simpler way than ever reported.

On the “Generality” of the General Theory. Or Why Keynes Lost His Battle and What to Do to Re-win It Again

The paper emphasizes the true“generality”of the General Theory(GT)in the face of the dominant view,according to which Keynes’s theory is captured by“Keynesian outcomes”in axiomatic general equilibrium models due to market imperfections.However,it argues that the advocates of generality must make a serious effort to re-conceptualize the GT in a very broad perspective.One must understand both its limitations and why the generality debate after the GT has failed to reconsider it in a proper way and what to do to restore Keynes’s generality claim in the present context.This paper’s contribution is twofold.The first is to make a distinction between three different dimensions of the generality issue and suggest that Keynes failed to grasp their full significance because he was facing the Marshallian orthodoxy,rather than general equilibrium.The second contribution is to suggest that one way to restore Keynes’s generality claim is to stress that he belongs to an alternative paradigm that has several features in common with contemporary modernist revolution and with Einstein’s relativity theory in particular.

Tourism as an Exit Strategy at Crisis Times

The contemporary crisis is giving evidence of failing macroeconomic theories and policies, after decades of focusing on the aggregate domestic demand and the role of the public expenditure. The contemporary crisis has shown the weakness of fiscal policy. With very low interest rates, the monetary policy does not seem to provide an alternative exit strategy out of the crisis, too. In this paper we discuss the hypothesis that GDP can still be a reliable estimate of growth. Nevertheless, at crisis times, only if the focus is on the foreign demand like International Tourism Receipts and Exports, and Exports can be an exit strategy. One component of Exports and International Tourism Receipts are worthy of attention. Thanks to a cluster analysis of per year variations of International Tourism Receipts (ITRs), GDP and Exports (World Bank Database) from 2007 to 2011, average positive variations of GDPs are matching with positive ITRs and Exports for “clusters” of countries. Performances of Europe and USA are worse than China, Brazil, India and South Africa and these continents and countries are separated in two different clusters. This result can be related to an increase of trade in emerging economies more than in mature ones, whose exit out of the crisis is much more demanding. The research confirms that Tourism and Exports are having an impact on the growth at different intensities (Europe and America vs. Asia) at crisis times.

Statistical Analysis and Evaluation of Macroeconomic Policies: A Selective Review

In this paper,we highlight some recent developments of a new route to evaluate macroeconomic policy effects,which are investigated under the framework with potential outcomes.First,this paper begins with a brief introduction of the basic model setup in modern econometric analysis of program evaluation.Secondly,primary attention goes to the focus on causal effect estimation of macroeconomic policy with single time series data together with some extensions to multiple time series data.Furthermore,we examine the connection of this new approach to traditional macroeconomic models for policy analysis and evaluation.Finally,we conclude by addressing some possible future research directions in statistics and econometrics.

Non-classical Algorithm for Time Series Prediction of the Range of Economic Phenomena With Regard to the Interaction of Financial Market Indicators

The aim of the article is to present non-clasical copyrighted algorithm for prediction of time series, presenting macroeconomic indicators and stock market indices. The algorithm is based on artificial neural networks and multi-resolution analysis （the algorithm is based on Daubechies wavelet）. However, the main feature of the algorithm, which gives a good quality of the forecasts, is all included in the series analysis division into, a few partial under-series and prediction dependence on a number of other economic series. The algorithm used for the prediction, is copyrighted algorithm, labeled M.H-D in this article. Application of the algorithm was performed on a series presenting WIG 20. The forecast of WIG 20 was conditional on trading the Dow Jones, DAX, Nikkei, Hang Seng, taking into account the sliding time window. As an example application of copyrighted model, the forecast of WIG 20 for a period of two years, one year, six month was appointed. An empirical example is described. It shows that the proposed model can predict index with the scale of two years, one year, a half year and other intervals. Precision of prediction is satisfactory. An average absolute percentage error of each forecast was： 0.0099%---for two-year forecasts WIG 20; 0.0552%--for the annual forecast WIG 20; and 0.1788%---for the six-month forecasts WIG 20.

Forecasting directional movement of Forex data using LSTM with technical and macroeconomic indicators

Forex(foreign exchange)is a special financial market that entails both high risks and high profit opportunities for traders.It is also a very simple market since traders can profit by just predicting the direction of the exchange rate between two currencies.However,incorrect predictions in Forex may cause much higher losses than in other typical financial markets.The direction prediction requirement makes the problem quite different from other typical time-series forecasting problems.In this work,we used a popular deep learning tool called“long short-term memory”(LSTM),which has been shown to be very effective in many time-series forecasting problems,to make direction predictions in Forex.We utilized two different data sets—namely,macroeconomic data and technical indicator data—since in the financial world,fundamental and technical analysis are two main techniques,and they use those two data sets,respectively.Our proposed hybrid model,which combines two separate LSTMs corresponding to these two data sets,was found to be quite successful in experiments using real data.

Optimal Investment Control of Macroeconomic Systems

Economic growth is always accompanied by economic fluctuation. The target of macroeconomic control is to keep a basic balance of economic growth, accelerate the optimization of economic structures and to lead a rapid, sustainable and healthy development of national economies, in order to propel society forward. In order to realize the above goal, investment control must be regarded as the most important policy for economic stability. Readjustment and control of investment includes not only control of aggregate investment, but also structural control which depends on economic-technology relationships between various industries of a national economy. On the basis of the theory of a generalized system, an optimal investment control model for government has been developed. In order to provide a scientific basis for government to formulate a macroeconomic control policy, the model investigates the balance of total supply and aggregate demand through an adjustment in investment decisions realizes a sustainable and stable growth of the national economy. The optimal investment decision function proposed by this study has a unique and specific expression, high regulating precision and computable characteristics.

The Transformations of Retail Trade Formats in Europe at the Beginning of the 21st Century

The paper aims at identifying the transformations in trade influenced by the main macroeconomic forces of trade companies in European countries in the 21st century. The author surveys the specialist literature dealing with marketing and trade. On the basis of the research carried out, it has been established that the development of new retail formats （e.g. convenience shops, e-commerce）, which was influenced by the transformations in the macroeconomic environment of companies, was observed. At the same time, retail formats of hybrid character （e.g. discount convenience shops） have appeared and old well-known ones like department stores, supermarkets, or discount shops have strengthened their market position. The knowledge about the issues presented in the following paper has practical implications and can be helpful for managers of trade companies.