The Research of the Correlation between Stock Market and Macroeconomy--Based on Comparison of Chinese and American Stock Markets

Since 2008,the economic volume of the United States has gradually decreased from 30% of world GDP to 20%-25%,and China has risen from 7% to 15%.However,face at a fast-growing economy,China's stock market has been sluggish,contrast strongly to the US's thriving stock market.This paper studies the correlation between stock market and macroeconomy,based on the perspective of stock market and macroeconomy between China and the United States.This article takes China and the United States from 1999 to early 2017 as the time frame.Choosing the Shanghai Stock Exchange securities market,the S&P 500 index and the macroeconomy indicators and policies of China and the United States as research objects,using a comparative method to study the interactive relationship between the two major economies.In addition,this paper analyzes the parts of macroeconomy and microlisted companies in economic and financial theory,and innovatively applies the four different aspects of macroeconomy of total seven indicators to more fully represent the macroeconomy.This paper establishes the VAR model,impulsive response,and variance decomposition to explore the interaction between trends of the stock market and macroeconomic trends.The research results show that the stock market trend is positively related to the macroeconomic trend.China's stock market is greatly affected by capital,and the reason why the US stock market can develop better under the condition that the macroeconomic development is not as good as China's,because of the unique status of the US dollar.Finally,this paper combines descriptive analysis and empirical analysis results to propose policy recommendations for China's stock market and macroeconomic development.

Housing Reform: The Impact on China's Macroeconomy

MajorinstitutionalbreakthroughsinChina’surbanhousingsectorhavebeenproposedbythenewcentraladministrationsinceearly1998.Somemeasuresarenowineffect.ThispaperwishestoassesstheimpactoftheurbanhousingreformonChina’smacroeconomicmovement.Partonebriefsthegen...

China macroeconomic report 2020: China’s macroeconomy is on the rebound under the impact of COVID-19

The year 2020 is bound to be a very special year in the history ofChina’s and the world’s economy. The sudden onslaught ofCOVID-19 has taken a heavy toll on China’s macroeconomy andits market participants. Also, the global economic and trade system has tipped into the most severe downturn since World WarII. The macro stimulus policy packages launched by various countries are of an epic scale, in a way rarely seen before. China wasthe first to be hit by the epidemic, to contain the epidemic, andto resume work and production. China’s economic recovery andreconstruction are of landmark and leading significance for theglobal economy. The content of this report mainly includes thefollowing two aspects: one is to forecast the basic trend andrecovery potential of China’s economy under the impact of theepidemic;the other is to provide applicable policy recommendations for post-epidemic economic rehabilitation and its mid- tolong-term development. We focus on four issues: the progressand nature of China’s economic recovery at the current stage;major challenges and risks facing China’s economic recovery inthe next stage;how to design policies of a sizable scale and policy mechanisms to achieve desired effects;and whether the existing policy is sufficient to cope with various risks and challenges,to enhance resilience and re-consolidate economic foundations. Inview of this, the report presents the forecast and prospect ofChina’s core macroeconomic indicators in 2020 and puts forwardpolicy recommendations accordingly.

China macroeconomic report 2021:China’s macroeconomy marches towards normalisation

In the year 2021,China’s economy continues to recover and moves towards policy normalisation.This report identifies features indicating the beginning of China’s macroeconomic normalisation,the internal and external pressure it faces,and the supporting policies.Due to the economic recovery and the base effect,China’s real GDP growth rate is projected to reach above 8.0%in 2021,and the quarterly growth rate will drop from 18.3%in Q1 to 5.0%in Q4,showing a declining trend.Based on qualitative assessments and statistical forecasts,this report puts forward some policy suggestions.

Issues Confront the Macroeconomy

This year,China’s macroeconomy will face several particular questions:What will China do to restructure its economy and transform its growth model? Will the ongoing recovery be as bumpy as last year? Will soaring housing prices be successfully checked? Will the inflation rate become lower in the second half than the first as expected?

Unraceling the Macroeconomy Code

To many, the indices behind the macroeconomy are figures that are seen but not always fully understood. Zhong Wei, professor at the Finance Studies Research Center, Beijing Normal University, speaks to Talents magazine, a Beijing-based publication, and explains what lies behind these figures and what they really mean. Excerpts follow:

Resource Tax Reform:A Case Study of Coal from the Perspective of Resource Economics

Using the adjusted E1 Serafy user cost approach to estimate the depletion cost of coal resources, this paper demonstrates that user cost exists in the exploitation of China＇s coal resources and has increased rapidly with the substantial growth of coal output. It is necessary to levy a resource tax that reflects the real cost of coal resources. The results of our calculations show that from 1992 to 2009, the theoretical ad valorem coal tax rate determined in accordance with the user cost fluctuated between 2 and 14 percent. A further analysis of the impact of an ad valorem coal tax on the Chinese macroeconomy with a dynamic computable general equilibrium （CGE） model shows that a tax rate of 5-12 percent for coal resources would better reflect the cost of depletion of coal as a scarce resource, with the macroeconomic impact falling within the acceptable range. Therefore, resource tax reform is significant for China＇s sustainable development.