Solar flare prediction using highly stressed longitudinal magnetic field parameters

Three new longitudinal magnetic field parameters are extracted from SOHO/MDI magnetograms to characterize properties of the stressed magnetic field in active regions, and their flare productivities are calculated for 1055 active regions. We find that the proposed parameters can be used to distinguish flaring samples from non-flaring samples. Using the long-term accumulated MDI data, we build the solar flare prediction model by using a data mining method. Furthermore, the decision boundary, which is used to divide flaring from non-flaring samples, is determined by the decision tree algorithm. Finally, the performance of the prediction model is evaluated by 10-fold cross validation technology. We conclude that an efficient solar flare prediction model can be built by the proposed longitudinal magnetic field parameters with the data mining method.

Testing a solar coronal magnetic field extrapolation code with the Titov–Dmoulin magnetic flux rope model

In the solar corona, the magnetic flux rope is believed to be a fundamental structure that accounts for magnetic free energy storage and solar eruptions. Up to the present, the extrapolation of the magnetic field from boundary data has been the primary way to obtain fully three-dimensional magnetic information about the corona. As a result, the ability to reliably recover the coronal magnetic flux rope is important for coronal field extrapolation. In this paper, our coronal field extrapolation code is examined with an analytical magnetic flux rope model proposed by Titov ＆ D6moulin, which consists of a bipolar magnetic configuration holding a semi-circular line-tied flux rope in force-free equilibrium. By only using the vector field at the bottom boundary as input, we test our code with the model in a representative range of parameter space and find that the model field can be reconstructed with high accuracy. In particular, the magnetic topological interfaces formed between the flux rope and the surrounding arcade, i.e., the ＂hyperbolic flux tube＂ and ＂bald patch separatrix surface,＂ are also reliably reproduced. By this test, we demonstrate that our CESE-MHD-NLFFF code can be applied to recovering the magnetic flux rope in the solar corona as long as the vector magnetogram satisfies the force-free constraints.

Statistical analysis of geomagnetic field variations during the partial solar eclipse on 2011 January 4 in Turkey

Some geophysical parameters, such as those related to gravitation and the geomagnetic field, could change during solar eclipses. In order to observe geomagnetic fluctuations, geomagnetic measurements were carded out in a limited time frame during the partial solar eclipse that occurred on 2011 January 4 and was observed in Canakkale and Ankara, Turkey. Additionally, records of the geomagnetic field spanning 24 hours, obtained from another observatory （in Iznik, Turkey）, were also analyzed to check for any peculiar variations. In the data processing stage, a polynomial fit, following the application of a running average routine, was applied to the geomagnetic field data sets. Geomagnetic field data sets indicated there was a characteristic decrease at the beginning of the solar eclipse and this decrease can be well-correlated with previous geomagnetic field measurements that were taken during the total solar eclipse that was observed in Turkey on 2006 March 29. The behavior of the geomagnetic field is also consistent with previous observations in the literature. As a result of these analyses, it can be suggested that eclipses can cause a shielding effect on the geomagnetic field of the Earth.

Limits of Riemann Solutions for Isentropic MHD in a Variable Cross-Section Duct as Magnetic Field Vanishes

The stability for magnetic field to the solution of the Riemann problem for the polytropic fluid in a variable cross-section duct is discussed.By the vanishing magnetic field method,the stable solutions are determined by comparing the limit solutions with the solutions of the Riemann problem for the polytropic fluid in a duct obtained by the entropy rate admissibility criterion.

Some tests and improvements to the VFISV: Very Fast Inversion of the Stokes Vector for the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager

Some experimental tests and improvements to the Very Fast Inversion of the Stokes Vector program, which is designed for the inversion calculation used by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument on the Solar Dynamics Observatory, are given. On one hand, the interpolation for calculating the Voigt function is not smooth, which may occasionally cause the iteration process to converge to different minima although they are very close to initial values. This problem can be solved by a smoother interpolation. On the other hand, in order to improve the performance of this program, we have tried to abandon the randomly-jump-out strategy and set the initial value properly to avoid non-global minima. The resulting method costs only 1//4 of the computational time, and will be very competitive when the users are only interested in the vectorial magnetic fields and the velocities along the line of sight.

Preprocessing photospheric vector magnetograms for nonlinear force-free field extrapolation of the global corona

Nonlinear force-free magnetic field （NLFFF） extrapolation based on the observed photo- spheric magnetic field is the most important method to obtain the coronal magnetic field nowadays. However, raw photospheric magnetograms contain magnetic forces and small-scale noises, and fail to be consistent with the force-free assumption of NLFFF models. The procedure for removing the forces and noises in observed data is called preprocessing. In this paper, we extend the preprocessing code of Jiang ＆ Feng to spherical coordinates for a full sphere. We first smooth the observed data with Gaussian smoothing, and then split the smoothed magnetic field into a potential field and a non-potential field. The potential part is computed by a numerical potential field model, and the non-potential part is prepro- cessed using an optimization method to minimize the magnetic forces and magnetic torques. Applying the code to synoptic charts of the vector magnetic field from SDO/HMI, we find it can effectively reduce the noises and forces, and improve the quality of data for a better input which will be used for NLFFF extrapolations applied to the global corona.

A magnetic bald-patch flare in solar active region 11117

With SDO observations and a data-constrained magnetohydrodynamics （MHD） model, we identify a confined multi-ribbon flare that occurred on 2010 October 25 in solar active region 11117 as a magnetic bald patch （BP） flare with strong evidence. From the photospheric magnetic field observed by SDO/HMI, we find there are indeed magnetic BPs on the polarity inversion lines （PILs） which match parts of the flare ribbons. From the 3D coronal magnetic field derived from an MHD relaxation model constrained by the vector magnetograms, we find strikingly good agreement of the BP separatrix surface （BPSS） footpoints with the flare ribbons, and the BPSS itself with the hot flaring loop system. Moreover, the triggering of the BP flare can be attributed to a small flux emergence under the lobe of the BPSS, and the relevant change of coronal magnetic field through the flare is reproduced well by the pre-flare and post-flare MHD solutions, which match the corresponding pre- and post-flare AIA observations, respectively. Our work contributes to the study of non-typical flares that constitute the majority of solar flares but which cannot be explained by the standard flare model.

A Non-axisymmetric Spherical α~2-Dynamo

Using the Chebyshev-tau method, the generation of oscillatory nonaxisymmetric stellar magnetic fields by the α^2-dynamo is studied in spherical geometry. Following the boundary conditions given by Schubert ＆ Zhang, the spherical α^2-dynamo consists of a fully convective spherical shell with inner radius ri and outer radius ro. A comparison of the critical dynamo numbers of axisymmetric and φ-dependent modes for different thicknesses of the convective shell and different α- profiles leads to the following qualitative results： （i） when the angular factor of α- profile is sin^n θ cosθ （n= 1, 2, 4） the solutions of the α^2dynamo are oscillatory and non-axisymmetric, （ii） the thinner the convective shell, the more easily is the nonaxisymmetric mode excited and the higher is the latitudinal wave number, （iii） the thickness of the outer convective shell has an effect on the symmetries of the magnetic fields.

Energy Buildup,Flux Confinement and Helicity Accumulation in the Solar Corona

Starting from a dipole field ment of field lines on the photosphere, and a given distribution of footpoint displacewe find axisymmetric, force-free field solutions in spherical coordinates that have the same distribution of normal field on the photosphere and magnetic topology as the dipole field. A photospheric shear is introduced in the azimuthal direction in a region that strides across the equator and ends at latitude λs. The footpoint displacement has a sine distribution in latitude and a peak amplitude of φm. The magnetic energy E, azimuthal flux Fφ, and magnetic helicity lit in the solar corona are then calculated for each force-free field solution. It is found that for a given shear region range λs, all of the three quantities increase monotonically with increasing φm. In particular, both Fφ and HT have a linear dependence on φm. When φm reaches a certain critical value φmc, the force-free field loses equilibrium, leading to a partial opening of the field and the appearance of a current sheet in the equatorial plane. At this point, E, Fφ and HT reach their maximum values, Ec, Fφc and HTo Ec increases, and Fφc and HTc decrease with decreasing λs. It is found that Ec is always smaller than the open field energy, in agreement with the Aly conjecture. Of the three critical parameters, Ec has the weakest dependence on λs. Therefore, if one is interested in the transition of a magnetic configuration from a stable state to a dynamic one, the magnetic energy is probably the most appropriate marker of the transition.

A fast Stokes inversion technique based on quadratic regression

Stokes inversion calculation is a key process in resolving polarization information on radiation from the Sun and obtaining the associated vector magnetic fields. Even in the cases of simple local thermo- dynamic equilibrium （LTE） and where the Milne-Eddington approximation is valid, the inversion problem may not be easy to solve. The initial values for the iterations are important in handling the case with mul- tiple minima. In this paper, we develop a fast inversion technique without iterations. The time taken for computation is only 1/100 the time that the iterative algorithm takes. In addition, it can provide available initial values even in cases with lower spectral resolutions. This strategy is useful for a filter-type Stokes spectrograph, such as SDO/HMI and the developed two-dimensional real-time spectrograph （2DS）.